Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

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Discussion

98elise

26,376 posts

160 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
andy43 said:
I’m betting there are a lot of military people across the globe quietly crapping themselves about what they’re seeing happening with armoured drones. Silent, cheap, accurate, can be operated by anyone. Unless an army can confidently jam them they’re looking like a very serious threat in modern warfare.
They aren't news to any competent military, and aren't any harder to hit than a plane or missile. Yes they are cheap, but also can also be shot down with a decent radar aimed auto-cannon with cheap ammunition.

This gun is fitted to ships, trailers, and trucks.

https://youtu.be/bdwjcayPuag





BikeBikeBIke

7,871 posts

114 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
CrutyRammers said:
Presumably the issue here is that they're hard to see. If you've got proper AA set ups and radar and whathaveyou, they probably are easily countered. But if you daren't turn on your AA radar or jammer because you'll be spotted and attract a load of loitering munitions and/or artillery fire, maybe that all goes out of the window. Or maybe they're only using them where there is no defence, to pick off odd units here and there.

I think it'll prove the opposite. Swarms of cheap, semi autonomous drones could be very very hard to counter.
In daylight a few blokes with binos and a shotgun could do damage. So in daylight this is just another symptom of Russia's lack of infantry.

Stationary/slow + fragile + low aren't feeling like desirable qualities in aircraft.

Plus the damage is being done by artillery in this war - the only reason it feels like drones are significant is because the footage ends up online.

I could be wrong, I often am. smile


J4CKO

41,287 posts

199 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
rxe said:
andy43 said:
I’m betting there are a lot of military people across the globe quietly crapping themselves about what they’re seeing happening with armoured drones. Silent, cheap, accurate, can be operated by anyone. Unless an army can confidently jam them they’re looking like a very serious threat in modern warfare.
Quietly crapping themselves is probably an overstatement. Working on countermeasures is probably accurate.

Drones are slow, short range and not stealthy. They’re incredibly easy to shoot down. The only real challenge is dealing with hordes of very cheap things that would bankrupt you if you used a proper anti air craft missile. I recall in some of the footage from Camp Bastion, the US had taken a ship based CWIS and bolted it to a stand - I think this was for destroying incoming mortars, but the principle is the same.

Again this points to a lack of air superiority. Whoever has superiority should be able to sit there with radar running, spotting these things from 10s of miles away. If you don’t have superiority, then as soon as you turn your radar on, you’re basically broadcasting an EM ‘hit me, here” at maximum volume.

The Ukranians have a massive advantage in that they have invulnerable, cutting edge observation happening just outside their boundaries.
When you see those drone swarms that can be made to produce images in the sky it makes you think if that is possible, imagine what they can be made to do.

Then you can add in a certain amount of Artificial Intelligence to them, and theoretically shooting them down is one thing but cant they approach at a very low level, imagine meeting a thousand of them. some armed, loads of decoys, armed with strobe lights, smoke and all sorts.

Sort of can see how you get to a Terminator 2 opening sequence at the moment.



Sway

26,070 posts

193 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
98elise said:
andy43 said:
I’m betting there are a lot of military people across the globe quietly crapping themselves about what they’re seeing happening with armoured drones. Silent, cheap, accurate, can be operated by anyone. Unless an army can confidently jam them they’re looking like a very serious threat in modern warfare.
They aren't news to any competent military, and aren't any harder to hit than a plane or missile. Yes they are cheap, but also can also be shot down with a decent radar aimed auto-cannon with cheap ammunition.

This gun is fitted to ships, trailers, and trucks.

https://youtu.be/bdwjcayPuag
I've also heard talk of countering such swarms with similar swarms.

Essentially, a 'picket line' dispersed out - then when triggered they kamikaze into the swarm.

Also, rather than ammunition, 'silly string' type stuff that gums up the rotors very quickly and drops them from the sky.

blueg33

35,589 posts

223 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
Have we given the Ukrainians Archer?

Artillery than can fire 3 rounds and be gone before the first round has impacted.

https://youtu.be/d8x8ITwd4Vg

98elise

26,376 posts

160 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
rxe said:
andy43 said:
I’m betting there are a lot of military people across the globe quietly crapping themselves about what they’re seeing happening with armoured drones. Silent, cheap, accurate, can be operated by anyone. Unless an army can confidently jam them they’re looking like a very serious threat in modern warfare.
Quietly crapping themselves is probably an overstatement. Working on countermeasures is probably accurate.

Drones are slow, short range and not stealthy. They’re incredibly easy to shoot down. The only real challenge is dealing with hordes of very cheap things that would bankrupt you if you used a proper anti air craft missile. I recall in some of the footage from Camp Bastion, the US had taken a ship based CWIS and bolted it to a stand - I think this was for destroying incoming mortars, but the principle is the same.

Again this points to a lack of air superiority. Whoever has superiority should be able to sit there with radar running, spotting these things from 10s of miles away. If you don’t have superiority, then as soon as you turn your radar on, you’re basically broadcasting an EM ‘hit me, here” at maximum volume.

The Ukranians have a massive advantage in that they have invulnerable, cutting edge observation happening just outside their boundaries.
Yes the C-RAM (Counter Rocket Artillery and Mortar) is the Phalanx ship based CIWS (Close in Weapons System) stuck on a trailer.

It doesn't care what it's sat on, it will just attack anything that poses a threat.

It's not the only system though.

Ean218

1,959 posts

249 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
blueg33 said:
Have we given the Ukrainians Archer?

Artillery than can fire 3 rounds and be gone before the first round has impacted.

https://youtu.be/d8x8ITwd4Vg
Saw the Royal Horse Artillery do something similar at Windsor Horse Show last week!

Arnold Cunningham

3,758 posts

252 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
blueg33 said:
Have we given the Ukrainians Archer?

Artillery than can fire 3 rounds and be gone before the first round has impacted.

https://youtu.be/d8x8ITwd4Vg
Wow. So it's on the move again before the first round even lands. Impressive.

Jimmm

2,500 posts

182 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
When you see those drone swarms that can be made to produce images in the sky it makes you think if that is possible, imagine what they can be made to do.

Then you can add in a certain amount of Artificial Intelligence to them, and theoretically shooting them down is one thing but cant they approach at a very low level, imagine meeting a thousand of them. some armed, loads of decoys, armed with strobe lights, smoke and all sorts.

Sort of can see how you get to a Terminator 2 opening sequence at the moment.
This exact scenario is in a Tom Clancy video game released 3 years ago (Ghost Recon Breakpoint). If the video game industry has been thinking it for over 5 years then you can bet the military have been working on the idea much longer.

FiF

43,964 posts

250 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
Digga said:
CrutyRammers said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
mickk said:
CrutyRammers said:
Drone beats tank.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1525900772508...

I do wonder if we'll see creation of much cheaper, smaller military drones after this, rather than/as well as just the big reapers etc. Given the track record of military procurement, probably not. But they're clearly useful.
I initially thought one guy survived then after that last detonation I changed my mind.
Other people are saying the tank moved and therefore the driver was alive until the last hit. I can't see the tank move at all? If so maybe there were only two people in there and both escaped at the start. Weird how they knew running away was safer than staying in the tank.
It's definitely moving before the last hit, it's clear if you full screen the video.
Last explosion was enormous. I'd not fancy my chances even outside of the tank when all that lot went up.

I had to doubletake the caption on the left of the screen at the end. Though it read "BORK" which was apt.
Way I see that video, first two drops are sighting shots, possibly figuring out wind effects.
After the second one there is a plume of something warm issuing from the rear quarter of the tank, possible engine started and that's perhaps the exhaust?
After the 3rd drop which is pretty much on target, the 'exhaust plume' increases, engine being accelerated?
As they're now on target, 4th drop follows quickly before tank can move very far, it's clearly now manoeuvring. And Bosh.

Guys who ran away towards top right and bottom left, don't know how far that bottom left guy gets as he's off screen, but there is, I think, a stationary small hot spot near the top, if that's the first runner and now hunkered down in cover should be OK probably.

mondeoman

11,430 posts

265 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
rxe said:
andy43 said:
I’m betting there are a lot of military people across the globe quietly crapping themselves about what they’re seeing happening with armoured drones. Silent, cheap, accurate, can be operated by anyone. Unless an army can confidently jam them they’re looking like a very serious threat in modern warfare.
Quietly crapping themselves is probably an overstatement. Working on countermeasures is probably accurate.

Drones are slow, short range and not stealthy. They’re incredibly easy to shoot down. The only real challenge is dealing with hordes of very cheap things that would bankrupt you if you used a proper anti air craft missile. I recall in some of the footage from Camp Bastion, the US had taken a ship based CWIS and bolted it to a stand - I think this was for destroying incoming mortars, but the principle is the same.

Again this points to a lack of air superiority. Whoever has superiority should be able to sit there with radar running, spotting these things from 10s of miles away. If you don’t have superiority, then as soon as you turn your radar on, you’re basically broadcasting an EM ‘hit me, here” at maximum volume.

The Ukranians have a massive advantage in that they have invulnerable, cutting edge observation happening just outside their boundaries.
.... and Starlink communications.

Castrol for a knave

4,640 posts

90 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
Arnold Cunningham said:
blueg33 said:
Have we given the Ukrainians Archer?

Artillery than can fire 3 rounds and be gone before the first round has impacted.

https://youtu.be/d8x8ITwd4Vg
Wow. So it's on the move again before the first round even lands. Impressive.
Bin wagon of death.

Byker28i

58,860 posts

216 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
Castrol for a knave said:
mickk said:
CrutyRammers said:
Drone beats tank.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1525900772508...

I do wonder if we'll see creation of much cheaper, smaller military drones after this, rather than/as well as just the big reapers etc. Given the track record of military procurement, probably not. But they're clearly useful.
I initially thought one guy survived then after that last detonation I changed my mind.
Necessity, being the mother of invention.

A beer dispenser repurposed to drop grenades...

https://twitter.com/SanhoTree/status/1525546286094...
Thats the one I saw - good link

Byker28i

58,860 posts

216 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
Sway said:
Evanivitch said:
jsf said:
Evanivitch said:
The remaining Ukrainians are in tunnels. Tunnels need ventilation. Start covering the place with incendiary rounds and soon enough some smoke is sucked into the tunnels...
It has a filter system designed for worse than that.
Filter systems don't run indefinitely without maintenance. They've been down there an awfully long time now...
Surely ones designed to protect from nuclear attack are designed for 'worse' and for 'longer'?

I'd also imagine a high level of compartmentalisation, with multiple sources of fresh air, etc. that could well cover a much larger area than could be covered by a conventional incendiary attack?

I'm pure armchair private lowest class, but am I the only one drawing parallels with the Siege (I can't remember the name) in France in WW1 where there was a medieval network of tunnels that the French made the Germans fight every last inch of?
Gibraltar also from ww2. They are still finding sealed chambers/tunnels with stuff in.

98elise

26,376 posts

160 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
rxe said:
andy43 said:
I’m betting there are a lot of military people across the globe quietly crapping themselves about what they’re seeing happening with armoured drones. Silent, cheap, accurate, can be operated by anyone. Unless an army can confidently jam them they’re looking like a very serious threat in modern warfare.
Quietly crapping themselves is probably an overstatement. Working on countermeasures is probably accurate.

Drones are slow, short range and not stealthy. They’re incredibly easy to shoot down. The only real challenge is dealing with hordes of very cheap things that would bankrupt you if you used a proper anti air craft missile. I recall in some of the footage from Camp Bastion, the US had taken a ship based CWIS and bolted it to a stand - I think this was for destroying incoming mortars, but the principle is the same.

Again this points to a lack of air superiority. Whoever has superiority should be able to sit there with radar running, spotting these things from 10s of miles away. If you don’t have superiority, then as soon as you turn your radar on, you’re basically broadcasting an EM ‘hit me, here” at maximum volume.

The Ukranians have a massive advantage in that they have invulnerable, cutting edge observation happening just outside their boundaries.
When you see those drone swarms that can be made to produce images in the sky it makes you think if that is possible, imagine what they can be made to do.

Then you can add in a certain amount of Artificial Intelligence to them, and theoretically shooting them down is one thing but cant they approach at a very low level, imagine meeting a thousand of them. some armed, loads of decoys, armed with strobe lights, smoke and all sorts.

Sort of can see how you get to a Terminator 2 opening sequence at the moment.
You're imagining something that doesn exist, yet the fully automated gun systems to shoot them down has existed since the 80's.

If cheap means you can send 1000's, then the response is to fit a bigger magazine to your gun system. Fire rate for a Phalanx system is 4500 rounds per minute.

Other systems have programmable explosive rounds with lots of fragments to create clouds of projectiles.

Drones are great, but being unsophisticated and slow makes them vulnerable.



Byker28i

58,860 posts

216 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
Castrol for a knave said:
Arnold Cunningham said:
blueg33 said:
Have we given the Ukrainians Archer?

Artillery than can fire 3 rounds and be gone before the first round has impacted.

https://youtu.be/d8x8ITwd4Vg
Wow. So it's on the move again before the first round even lands. Impressive.
Bin wagon of death.
Iraq war - hunt the scud

vonuber

17,868 posts

164 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
Arnold Cunningham said:
blueg33 said:
Have we given the Ukrainians Archer?

Artillery than can fire 3 rounds and be gone before the first round has impacted.

https://youtu.be/d8x8ITwd4Vg
Wow. So it's on the move again before the first round even lands. Impressive.
They've got the Panzerhaubitze 2000 on the way.


J4CKO

41,287 posts

199 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
98elise said:
J4CKO said:
rxe said:
andy43 said:
I’m betting there are a lot of military people across the globe quietly crapping themselves about what they’re seeing happening with armoured drones. Silent, cheap, accurate, can be operated by anyone. Unless an army can confidently jam them they’re looking like a very serious threat in modern warfare.
Quietly crapping themselves is probably an overstatement. Working on countermeasures is probably accurate.

Drones are slow, short range and not stealthy. They’re incredibly easy to shoot down. The only real challenge is dealing with hordes of very cheap things that would bankrupt you if you used a proper anti air craft missile. I recall in some of the footage from Camp Bastion, the US had taken a ship based CWIS and bolted it to a stand - I think this was for destroying incoming mortars, but the principle is the same.

Again this points to a lack of air superiority. Whoever has superiority should be able to sit there with radar running, spotting these things from 10s of miles away. If you don’t have superiority, then as soon as you turn your radar on, you’re basically broadcasting an EM ‘hit me, here” at maximum volume.

The Ukranians have a massive advantage in that they have invulnerable, cutting edge observation happening just outside their boundaries.
When you see those drone swarms that can be made to produce images in the sky it makes you think if that is possible, imagine what they can be made to do.

Then you can add in a certain amount of Artificial Intelligence to them, and theoretically shooting them down is one thing but cant they approach at a very low level, imagine meeting a thousand of them. some armed, loads of decoys, armed with strobe lights, smoke and all sorts.

Sort of can see how you get to a Terminator 2 opening sequence at the moment.
You're imagining something that doesn exist, yet the fully automated gun systems to shoot them down has existed since the 80's.

If cheap means you can send 1000's, then the response is to fit a bigger magazine to your gun system. Fire rate for a Phalanx system is 4500 rounds per minute.

Other systems have programmable explosive rounds with lots of fragments to create clouds of projectiles.

Drones are great, but being unsophisticated and slow makes them vulnerable.
Hmm, they arent the answer to everything, but that Phalanx system is impressive though the following old joke sprang to mind.

Bloke leaving his car near a football stadium for the game, kids wanders up and says he will "look after your car for a quid mate ?"

Guy smiles at the kid and says "look inside and you will see my Rottweiler, he looks after my car"

Kid says "Can he put out fires ?" biggrin



pquinn

7,167 posts

45 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
All great in this conflict, just hoping that certain groups and individuals arent having ideas based on this though. Could wreak havoc from potentially miles away.
You think the idea is new? They've been doing this for years already in some parts of the world.

None of this drone stuff you see in the videos is new or clever, it's just being publicised and used against a particularly inept and poorly equipped enemy.

Doesn't even need clever countermeasures to detect or kill this grade of kit if you're vaguely competent or prepared.

Derek Smith

45,514 posts

247 months

Monday 16th May 2022
quotequote all
Every new weapon that changes the course of battle is soon out of date when counter-measures are introduced. The problem is super-sophistication. All this technology costs and one country just having a plethora of drones means that their potential enemies have to either buy expensive counter-measure or start being nice to one-another.

Escalation is always expensive.