Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2
Discussion
Bright Halo said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
HM-2 said:
And it's already lost, when you consider the actual initial objectives.
+1Where Russia has a problem is that they have a finite number of tanks, they are losing 1000/month. At what point do you compromise your other territory's capabilities in order to feed the Ukraine war? They think that NATO are coming into Russia via Poland and that the Ukrainians would be a push over like Prague in '68.
Ukraine has been very clear that they want their territory back, Russia knows that is all they want and not more. Which technically is not what Russia wants, they want a fight with the west. Not their arse handed to them by Little Russians.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Let's not exaggerate the situation either way. When Ukraine make a bit of progress this thread becomes full of people posting how Russia is being smashed, how the next new weapon will be a "gamechanger" (remember the artillery was supposed to have a much further range etc etc). Now it moves a bit the other way and suddenly all hope is lost and Ukraine is going to lose.
If you zoom out of the micro-detail the picture looks a lot more static. In my opinion, we are still heading for the same place as we were a few weeks ago, which is some territorial compromise around Luhansk and Donetsk, possibly also including Kherson, and some form of words from Zelesky which Putin can use domestically to justify his aggression. Whether that is fair or not, is a different question. Between that point and now we will have a slow, attritional war with the only question being how many more people die.
Longer range weapons _are_ a game changer. The most important aspect is that the Russian side will struggle to replenish stocks of a long range, guided/accurate weapons. They’ve been working though their missile inventory, and compared to the levels at the beginning, they are firing far fewer and less suitable missiles. An ability to look at a satellite picture, and accurately + reliably hit a supply depot 50 km behind the front lines would have an enormous impact.If you zoom out of the micro-detail the picture looks a lot more static. In my opinion, we are still heading for the same place as we were a few weeks ago, which is some territorial compromise around Luhansk and Donetsk, possibly also including Kherson, and some form of words from Zelesky which Putin can use domestically to justify his aggression. Whether that is fair or not, is a different question. Between that point and now we will have a slow, attritional war with the only question being how many more people die.
The longer range artillery have meant that Ukraine has effectively defeated most of the Donbas onslaught - yes, they will be giving ground, but who thought that Ukraine would be able to hold off Russia when they really wanted something.
sisu said:
The Ukrainian economics minister stated that they have enough Domestic and export capacity for 2022. But that the Black Sea blockade is the issue.
Where Russia has a problem is that they have a finite number of tanks, they are losing 1000/month. At what point do you compromise your other territory's capabilities in order to feed the Ukraine war? They think that NATO are coming into Russia via Poland and that the Ukrainians would be a push over like Prague in '68.
Ukraine has been very clear that they want their territory back, Russia knows that is all they want and not more. Which technically is not what Russia wants, they want a fight with the west. Not their arse handed to them by Little Russians.
The rate of attrition, not only of tanks, is by no means fixed.Where Russia has a problem is that they have a finite number of tanks, they are losing 1000/month. At what point do you compromise your other territory's capabilities in order to feed the Ukraine war? They think that NATO are coming into Russia via Poland and that the Ukrainians would be a push over like Prague in '68.
Ukraine has been very clear that they want their territory back, Russia knows that is all they want and not more. Which technically is not what Russia wants, they want a fight with the west. Not their arse handed to them by Little Russians.
It is abundantly clear there is a huge amount of kit still being fed into the UA lines.
Digga said:
sisu said:
The Ukrainian economics minister stated that they have enough Domestic and export capacity for 2022. But that the Black Sea blockade is the issue.
Where Russia has a problem is that they have a finite number of tanks, they are losing 1000/month. At what point do you compromise your other territory's capabilities in order to feed the Ukraine war? They think that NATO are coming into Russia via Poland and that the Ukrainians would be a push over like Prague in '68.
Ukraine has been very clear that they want their territory back, Russia knows that is all they want and not more. Which technically is not what Russia wants, they want a fight with the west. Not their arse handed to them by Little Russians.
The rate of attrition, not only of tanks, is by no means fixed.Where Russia has a problem is that they have a finite number of tanks, they are losing 1000/month. At what point do you compromise your other territory's capabilities in order to feed the Ukraine war? They think that NATO are coming into Russia via Poland and that the Ukrainians would be a push over like Prague in '68.
Ukraine has been very clear that they want their territory back, Russia knows that is all they want and not more. Which technically is not what Russia wants, they want a fight with the west. Not their arse handed to them by Little Russians.
It is abundantly clear there is a huge amount of kit still being fed into the UA lines.
While the Russians are getting loading the Lada era T-62 in Kursk,
hidetheelephants said:
US sending MLRS.
While we're at it perhaps the UK should ask Jordan nicely if they would sell their surplus Challenger tanks to Ukraine?
In possibly unrelated news Poland has ordered 500 HIMARS from the US - https://dasinsider.com/poland-reveals-arms-wish-li...While we're at it perhaps the UK should ask Jordan nicely if they would sell their surplus Challenger tanks to Ukraine?
Poland already make the trucks and missiles themselves so have long been intending use the system, but still 500 of the buggers! Note this isn't 500 rockets, it's 500 full systems with 6 rockets each and the ability to make ammunition locally.
There's no way of telling if this affected the US decision, however the Polish military do have a habit of driving south and getting lost at the border.
HM-2 said:
And it's already lost, when you consider the actual initial objectives.
Thats not clearIf the initial objective was to take Donbas and the attack on Kiev was to keep troops held up there, the plan is still going to plan.
Its not a quick movement taking a bit at a time reinforcing and establiching solid ground but its still moving foward.
Once somewhere like Snake Island or Mariupol is taken it's not easy to take it back
The other half of the game is to empty the area of local population - that's been working too.
saaby93 said:
Once somewhere like Snake Island or Mariupol is taken it's not easy to take it back
Snake Island is the very definition of somewhere that's impossible to hold. There's nowhere to hide.I'm not sure why Mariupol is hard to take either. The troops holding it will have zero motivation. Supply lines from Russia are good, that's all you could really say about it.
sisu said:
Its also not what the Russians want, the Nextar Caesar can shoot 40km and move without leaving tank tracks for a drone to spot. They have been through their training and are mobilising these.[artillery photo]
While the Russians are getting loading the Lada era T-62 in Kursk, [old tank photo]
Saw a little YouTube short things about the T-62s coming out of storage - it's not *that* big a deal that they are really old tanks because if the newer tanks are getting destroyed left, right and centre by anti-tank missiles you may as well use the old crappy ones as the offensive bits of the tanks (cannon and the big machine guns) will work just as well against what they're firing at in Ukraine.While the Russians are getting loading the Lada era T-62 in Kursk, [old tank photo]
MesoForm said:
Saw a little YouTube short things about the T-62s coming out of storage - it's not *that* big a deal that they are really old tanks because if the newer tanks are getting destroyed left, right and centre by anti-tank missiles you may as well use the old crappy ones as the offensive bits of the tanks (cannon and the big machine guns) will work just as well against what they're firing at in Ukraine.
I don't see serious commentators getting too excited about it, either. I'd have thought the biggest issue is the requirement for additional crew, Russia need 33pc more men if they want to crew T-62s and they already don't have enough. Plus it's a logistical nightmare because different ammunition and different parts. (But we could say that about the patchwork of kit Ukraine has.)jsf said:
Nazi Germany would still be in most of Europe right now with that attitude. It won't be allowed to happen.
We 'allowed' Russia to annex Crimea in 2014, and 'allowed' those parts of Georgia to be removed from Georgia's territorial control in 2008. We allowed Russia to keep around 10% of Finland after it invaded during ww2. And even Nazi Germany arguably would have probably kept the territory it took up to 1938 if they had been a bit less aggressive, bearing in mind the prevailing policy of appeasement at the time. I'm not saying I like it, or that it is fair, but we can't ignore the realpolitik.
EddieSteadyGo said:
We 'allowed' Russia to annex Crimea in 2014, and 'allowed' those parts of Georgia to be removed from Georgia's territorial control in 2008. We allowed Russia to keep around 10% of Finland after it invaded during ww2. And even Nazi Germany arguably would have probably kept the territory it took up to 1938 if they had been a bit less aggressive, bearing in mind the prevailing policy of appeasement at the time.
I'm not saying I like it, or that it is fair, but we can't ignore the realpolitik.
The realpolitik is that there is no deal that would be tolerable for both parties and neither party would stick to the deal anyway. I'm not saying I like it, or that it is fair, but we can't ignore the realpolitik.
So we end with a simmering war *at least* until Putin dies and/or they give up like they did in Afganistan.
I fantasize that Putin would settle for undisputed genuine legal title to Crimea and an end to Sanctions but he won't.
Putin is a prick.
Considering that the Russians push in the east was supposed to be their big offensive they are creeping forward at a snails pace.
The Ukrainians are gaining some territory and loosing it in others, but whats clear is that with a relatively limited fighting force they have managed to seriously slow the Russian advance to a crawl and extracting a heavy price for every mile they gain. Ukraine is buying time for their offensive and Russia is trying to make hay whilst the sun shines.
Even in Popsana, Russian gains have been better than other areas but still limited and this is with one of their stronger fighting forces which are apparently using combined arms (clearly a first for Russia) to push the Ukrainians back. But I suspect the intention for the Ukrainians is to keep the attention of the forces and become a resource vacuum so the Russians aren't chasing other objectives.
Once new equipment finally makes its way onto the field with fresh troops being rotated in, its reasonable to expect that the Ukrainians will see some good gains in Russian held territory. The second stage of the battle seems to be based around artillery, Russians shell the Ukrainians and then edge forward under the barrage. Soon the Ukrainians will be able to do the same but with significantly enhanced range thanks to kit supplied by the west.
I know the pessimists are trying to call the war based in Russias favour after a few weeks of very gradual Russian progress; but lets be serious, the new equipment promised Ukraine isn't yet in use in any meaningful quantity, and I suspect when it does get deployed it will be as combined arms with artillery, tanks, ground forces, air support and anti air working together.
Lets face it, the west hasn't ploughed huge resource and money into supporting Ukraine to allow it to fall to Russia. Any concession to Russia just green lights further aggression later on down the road, Russian needs to be taught a lesson, no off ramps, golden bridges or deals. Who cares whether Putin can sell it as a win, the rest of the developed world knows he is the looser and everyone else in Russia will believe what they are told, because if they dont they will be jailed for questioning it.
The Ukrainians are gaining some territory and loosing it in others, but whats clear is that with a relatively limited fighting force they have managed to seriously slow the Russian advance to a crawl and extracting a heavy price for every mile they gain. Ukraine is buying time for their offensive and Russia is trying to make hay whilst the sun shines.
Even in Popsana, Russian gains have been better than other areas but still limited and this is with one of their stronger fighting forces which are apparently using combined arms (clearly a first for Russia) to push the Ukrainians back. But I suspect the intention for the Ukrainians is to keep the attention of the forces and become a resource vacuum so the Russians aren't chasing other objectives.
Once new equipment finally makes its way onto the field with fresh troops being rotated in, its reasonable to expect that the Ukrainians will see some good gains in Russian held territory. The second stage of the battle seems to be based around artillery, Russians shell the Ukrainians and then edge forward under the barrage. Soon the Ukrainians will be able to do the same but with significantly enhanced range thanks to kit supplied by the west.
I know the pessimists are trying to call the war based in Russias favour after a few weeks of very gradual Russian progress; but lets be serious, the new equipment promised Ukraine isn't yet in use in any meaningful quantity, and I suspect when it does get deployed it will be as combined arms with artillery, tanks, ground forces, air support and anti air working together.
Lets face it, the west hasn't ploughed huge resource and money into supporting Ukraine to allow it to fall to Russia. Any concession to Russia just green lights further aggression later on down the road, Russian needs to be taught a lesson, no off ramps, golden bridges or deals. Who cares whether Putin can sell it as a win, the rest of the developed world knows he is the looser and everyone else in Russia will believe what they are told, because if they dont they will be jailed for questioning it.
saaby93 said:
If the initial objective was to take Donbas and the attack on Kiev was to keep troops held up there, the plan is still going to plan.
The initial objective was to overthrow the incumbents administration by force and replace it with a Russian puppet. That's been widely affirmed and is consistent with Russian actions, whereas smashing the bulk of their capabilities against the anvil of Ukrainian resistence north of Kyiv whilst failing to make substantive gains in the East only really serves to keep Russian troops held up, not Ukrainian ones. BikeBikeBIke said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
We 'allowed' Russia to annex Crimea in 2014, and 'allowed' those parts of Georgia to be removed from Georgia's territorial control in 2008. We allowed Russia to keep around 10% of Finland after it invaded during ww2. And even Nazi Germany arguably would have probably kept the territory it took up to 1938 if they had been a bit less aggressive, bearing in mind the prevailing policy of appeasement at the time.
I'm not saying I like it, or that it is fair, but we can't ignore the realpolitik.
The realpolitik is that there is no deal that would be tolerable for both parties and neither party would stick to the deal anyway. I'm not saying I like it, or that it is fair, but we can't ignore the realpolitik.
So we end with a simmering war *at least* until Putin dies and/or they give up like they did in Afganistan.
I fantasize that Putin would settle for undisputed genuine legal title to Crimea and an end to Sanctions but he won't.
Putin is a prick.
ts that should consigned behind a very high wall. 
https://tass.com/politics/1456773
https://tass.com/politics/1456777
Edited by MOTORVATOR on Friday 27th May 11:02
Iran keeping it classy..
"Iran to supply Russia with car parts and gas turbines in exchange for steel.
Iranian Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Reza Fatemi Amin said on May 26 that Iran would use barter trade with Russia to ensure supplies of raw materials for its metals and mining sector. He also said that Iran would need to import zinc, lead and alumina from Russia. Russia has had difficulties with equipment and components for its industry because Western imports have dropped as a result of the sanctions imposed due to its aggression against Ukraine."
"Iran to supply Russia with car parts and gas turbines in exchange for steel.
Iranian Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Reza Fatemi Amin said on May 26 that Iran would use barter trade with Russia to ensure supplies of raw materials for its metals and mining sector. He also said that Iran would need to import zinc, lead and alumina from Russia. Russia has had difficulties with equipment and components for its industry because Western imports have dropped as a result of the sanctions imposed due to its aggression against Ukraine."
Welshbeef said:
Biker 1 said:
I watched a bit of 'Chernobyl' on channel 5 yesterday. The corruption, incompetence on display was mind blowing. The need to keep up appearances to their own public, at the expense of many avoidable deaths, was simply staggering. I guess the same thinking is on display here - the Russian psyche appears to be rotten to the core
Snap. However I watched 3 mile island and it was exactly the same receipt and lies to the public and keeping people there with known radiation flowing out.
Our own Uk lied and kept quiet the Sealfield nuclear disaster too.
BikeBikeBIke said:
I'm not even sure it will affect morale on the ground - retreating to vastly better positions must feel pretty good.
Especially, if you know that is what you are planning to do.The Ukranians would have known this was the plan. If it was Russians doing the same, they would have been demoralised, as their grunts are not "in the loop".
Ukraine soldiers will be given orders in the same way as British soldiers...
Google Orders
Orders are cascaded down and it's amazing how much information gets passed down to the man who holds the weapon.
A soldier in a section will know the orders of each of the rest of the section are - he can take over from any of his section.
He will know the objectives of the neighbouring sections - he can assist the neighbouring section after he has achieved his objective.
He will know the intentions of his unit commander - he has a rough idea of what is coming next.
A Russian soldier probably just knows what he is doing in the next hour and has no real idea of why he is doing it.
Jhonno said:
Iran keeping it classy..
"Iran to supply Russia with car parts and gas turbines in exchange for steel.
Iranian Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Reza Fatemi Amin said on May 26 that Iran would use barter trade with Russia to ensure supplies of raw materials for its metals and mining sector. He also said that Iran would need to import zinc, lead and alumina from Russia. Russia has had difficulties with equipment and components for its industry because Western imports have dropped as a result of the sanctions imposed due to its aggression against Ukraine."
"My friend, I make special price for you.""Iran to supply Russia with car parts and gas turbines in exchange for steel.
Iranian Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Reza Fatemi Amin said on May 26 that Iran would use barter trade with Russia to ensure supplies of raw materials for its metals and mining sector. He also said that Iran would need to import zinc, lead and alumina from Russia. Russia has had difficulties with equipment and components for its industry because Western imports have dropped as a result of the sanctions imposed due to its aggression against Ukraine."
That's Iran on the blacklist for most Western manufacturers in 3, 2, 1...
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