Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[sisu]

geeks said:

sisu said:

Its also not what the Russians want, the Nextar Caesar can shoot 40km and move without leaving tank tracks for a drone to spot. They have been through their training and are mobilising these.

The sad thing is that once they are up to speed with this is a very capable weapon. This is not just lob and hope it hits.

[sisu]

saaby93 said:

HM-2 said:

And it's already lost, when you consider the actual initial objectives.

Thats not clear
If the initial objective was to take Donbas and the attack on Kiev was to keep troops held up there, the plan is still going to plan.
Its not a quick movement taking a bit at a time reinforcing and establiching solid ground but its still moving foward.

Once somewhere like Snake Island or Mariupol is taken it's not easy to take it back

The other half of the game is to empty the area of local population - that's been working too.

They had 4 separate military operators on 4 axis points all using pooled resources, they sustained heavy loses in the first 4 days. They did not expect the Ukrainians to expand and they thought they would have the same result that they had in Prague, but have little or no training for expansive war and failed to take the airport with paratroopers and failing to take the capital. Ukraine sacrificed southern troops from the south to protect Kiev.
Now Russia have one commander and a focus on the east in a defensive aspect to gain ground before the Ukrainians can move their western supplied weapons into the east.
They made several mistakes, the botched river crossing being the most embarrassing and symbolic defeats. You can see that they are panicking to get results because they are trying to gain ground before the Ukrainians are coming over the coming weeks. Once the Ukrainians have the eastern area with modern equipment this will be harder to attack, now is as good as its going to get.
Snake island is not a given, they have shown that they can bomb it with impunity, again taking out a Swat team leaving a helicopter and then taking out the defensive system with jets.
Where this goes is not the Russian's choice. The south may be taken back as quickly as they conceded it.
If they cut off Crimea from supply then Russia loses the sea of Azov and it won't be easy to fight this given the improvement of the equipment the Ukrainians will get. They already showed they can go 100km into enemy territory to resupply Mariupol which means that the region is not sealed. Which means they could take Crimea by not allowing the Russians to either resupply or escape over the Kersh Bridge, but by boat east or via the land bridge to the east.
If the Ukrainians have learnt anything, it is that they will funnel the Russians onto a main route, target it. Let them get stuck, then hit them.

[TTmonkey]

pingu393 said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

I'm not even sure it will affect morale on the ground - retreating to vastly better positions must feel pretty good.

Especially, if you know that is what you are planning to do.

The Ukranians would have known this was the plan. If it was Russians doing the same, they would have been demoralised, as their grunts are not "in the loop".

Ukraine soldiers will be given orders in the same way as British soldiers...

Google Orders

Orders are cascaded down and it's amazing how much information gets passed down to the man who holds the weapon.

A soldier in a section will know the orders of each of the rest of the section are - he can take over from any of his section.
He will know the objectives of the neighbouring sections - he can assist the neighbouring section after he has achieved his objective.
He will know the intentions of his unit commander - he has a rough idea of what is coming next.


A Russian soldier probably just knows what he is doing in the next hour and has no real idea of why he is doing it.

They didn’t know they were going yo Ukraine. They didn’t know it was a war until the fan was covered in crap.

[moustachebandit]

MOTORVATOR said:

I think Lavrov is finally getting 'it'. Yep we all think you are total tts that should consigned behind a very high wall.

https://tass.com/politics/1456773

https://tass.com/politics/1456777

Edited by MOTORVATOR on Friday 27th May 11:02

I am fascinated by TASS - it reads like a parody news site but without the humour!

[Steve vRS]

sisu said:

geeks said:

sisu said:

Its also not what the Russians want, the Nextar Caesar can shoot 40km and move without leaving tank tracks for a drone to spot. They have been through their training and are mobilising these.

The sad thing is that once they are up to speed with this is a very capable weapon. This is not just lob and hope it hits.

I think you should have written that as it’s a Ukrainian artillery piece, it’s a good thing that it is so capable.

[ChemicalChaos]

Digga said:

Jhonno said:

Iran keeping it classy..

"Iran to supply Russia with car parts and gas turbines in exchange for steel.

Iranian Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Reza Fatemi Amin said on May 26 that Iran would use barter trade with Russia to ensure supplies of raw materials for its metals and mining sector. He also said that Iran would need to import zinc, lead and alumina from Russia. Russia has had difficulties with equipment and components for its industry because Western imports have dropped as a result of the sanctions imposed due to its aggression against Ukraine."

"My friend, I make special price for you."

That's Iran on the blacklist for most Western manufacturers in 3, 2, 1...

Pretty sure they've been on the list since the revolution......

[pingu393]

TTmonkey said:

pingu393 said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

I'm not even sure it will affect morale on the ground - retreating to vastly better positions must feel pretty good.

Especially, if you know that is what you are planning to do.

The Ukranians would have known this was the plan. If it was Russians doing the same, they would have been demoralised, as their grunts are not "in the loop".

Ukraine soldiers will be given orders in the same way as British soldiers...

Google Orders

Orders are cascaded down and it's amazing how much information gets passed down to the man who holds the weapon.

A soldier in a section will know the orders of each of the rest of the section are - he can take over from any of his section.
He will know the objectives of the neighbouring sections - he can assist the neighbouring section after he has achieved his objective.
He will know the intentions of his unit commander - he has a rough idea of what is coming next.


A Russian soldier probably just knows what he is doing in the next hour and has no real idea of why he is doing it.

They didn’t know they were going yo Ukraine. They didn’t know it was a war until the fan was covered in crap.

It's embarrassing, isn't it?

A Ukrainian soldier will also know that he has to halt his advance UNLESS the unit commander's intent is to advance further and the soldier is confident that he can hold the ground he has already gained.

A Russian soldier just seems to keep going until he is stopped. Often the Russian comms break down and the order to halt is never received. This makes them over-extend their lines.

To paraphrase the video, thank God they are so incompetent. My fear is that they are starting to become more competent.

Ukraine is going to have to up its game.

Second half has just started, 3-0 up, and I think Russia have just pulled one back. Russia must have had the "Fergy hair dryer" at half-time. 3-1 and Russia have the momentum. Ukraine have Messi, Ronaldo and Salah on the bench. Let's just hope they are fit.

[anonymous-user]

Jhonno said:

Iran keeping it classy..

"Iran to supply Russia with car parts and gas turbines in exchange for steel.

Iranian Industry, Mining, and Trade Minister Reza Fatemi Amin said on May 26 that Iran would use barter trade with Russia to ensure supplies of raw materials for its metals and mining sector. He also said that Iran would need to import zinc, lead and alumina from Russia. Russia has had difficulties with equipment and components for its industry because Western imports have dropped as a result of the sanctions imposed due to its aggression against Ukraine."

Can't really blame them. The more people we lock out of global trade the more they are going to trade with one another. It's quite amusing though that this supposed "superpower" can only produce basic raw material and can't manufacture it's own automotive and aero parts.

[anonymous-user]

moustachebandit said:

I am fascinated by TASS - it reads like a parody news site but without the humour!

I agree. I do wonder if they actually believe their own BS or not. It's hard to tell.

[EddieSteadyGo]

fblm said:

Can't really blame them. The more people we lock out of global trade the more they are going to trade with one another. It's quite amusing though that this supposed "superpower" can only produce basic raw material and can't manufacture it's own automotive and aero parts.

And that's the challenge with sanctions - how long before they develop their own version of Swift, run by the Chinese, or their own version of all the things the west have withdrawn? I think we can hold their foreign currency reserves, as that is tremendous leverage, but the value of some of the other stuff just dilutes over time and even becomes self-defeating.

[bristolracer]

fblm said:

It's quite amusing though that this supposed "superpower" can only produce basic raw material and can't manufacture it's own automotive and aero parts.

Are all car parts embargoed?
That's going to be interesting when all those German made cars they are fond of break down, or will some Volkswagen partner in some obscure Russian loving country start supplying them?

[mondeoman]

EddieSteadyGo said:

fblm said:

Can't really blame them. The more people we lock out of global trade the more they are going to trade with one another. It's quite amusing though that this supposed "superpower" can only produce basic raw material and can't manufacture it's own automotive and aero parts.

And that's the challenge with sanctions - how long before they develop their own version of Swift, run by the Chinese, or their own version of all the things the west have withdrawn? I think we can hold their foreign currency reserves, as that is tremendous leverage, but the value of some of the other stuff just dilutes over time and even becomes self-defeating.

Can you list how many countries are "locked out of global trade"?

[anonymous-user]

EddieSteadyGo said:

And that's the challenge with sanctions - how long before they develop their own version of Swift...

It really wouldn't be very hard. The problem is the power of something like swift is that everyone is on it. They could build their own internet too but if it's only Russia, China, Iran, Somalia and North Korea then their car forums are going to suck!

[mondeoman]

fblm said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

And that's the challenge with sanctions - how long before they develop their own version of Swift...

It really wouldn't be very hard. The problem is the power of something like swift is that everyone is on it. They could build their own internet too but if it's only Russia, China, Iran, Somalia and North Korea then their car forums are going to suck!

But the Sea Pirate page would be awesome!

[madbadger]

EddieSteadyGo said:

fblm said:

Can't really blame them. The more people we lock out of global trade the more they are going to trade with one another. It's quite amusing though that this supposed "superpower" can only produce basic raw material and can't manufacture it's own automotive and aero parts.

And that's the challenge with sanctions - how long before they develop their own version of Swift, run by the Chinese, or their own version of all the things the west have withdrawn? I think we can hold their foreign currency reserves, as that is tremendous leverage, but the value of some of the other stuff just dilutes over time and even becomes self-defeating.

It may be a trivial example but parkrun Russia was excluded from the global parkrun events (and results processing and support that goes with it) and they have just launched their own version with 5verst

[bloomen]

EddieSteadyGo said:

And that's the challenge with sanctions - how long before they develop their own version of Swift, run by the Chinese, or their own version of all the things the west have withdrawn? I think we can hold their foreign currency reserves, as that is tremendous leverage, but the value of some of the other stuff just dilutes over time and even becomes self-defeating.

Whatever they come up with will be inferior and grow ever more inferior as the rest of the world moves ahead. Russia will end up with full blown second tier everything.

And I expect those who issued the sanctions will watch countries that could go either way very closely in case they deal with Russia. Russia now has a pox and not many others want to catch it.

We know the shameless pooholes won't care. But they were already sidelined.

[EddieSteadyGo]

bloomen said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

And that's the challenge with sanctions - how long before they develop their own version of Swift, run by the Chinese, or their own version of all the things the west have withdrawn? I think we can hold their foreign currency reserves, as that is tremendous leverage, but the value of some of the other stuff just dilutes over time and even becomes self-defeating.

Whatever they come up with will be inferior and grow ever more inferior as the rest of the world moves ahead. Russia will end up with full blown second tier everything.

And I expect those who issued the sanctions will watch countries that could go either way very closely in case they deal with Russia. Russia now has a pox and not many others want to catch it.

Doesn't seem to be bothering countries like Israel, who are happy to help them bypass some of the sanctions, for a fee, or countries including those in South America who are happy to trade at increasing levels with Russia, or the very many other countries still happy to buy their oil and gas... including the EU! There is so much hypocrisy about sanctions - and far too much arrogance as to what effect they have imho.

There are some important sanctions, like denying access to much of the US financial system which is no question a huge blow which will have economic consequences for Russia and can't really be replaced. And I referenced already the freezing of their currency reserves. But much of the other stuff is signalling. And I am suggested the effect of some of those sanctions is heavily diluting over time, to the point it causes no real damage or has any real effect, and just becomes self-defeating.

[bloomen]

Aye. But tech and finance are what you need to get ahead these days and both of those areas will be watched carefully.

[BikeBikeBIke]

fblm said:

It really wouldn't be very hard. The problem is the power of something like swift is that everyone is on it. They could build their own internet too but if it's only Russia, China, Iran, Somalia and North Korea then their car forums are going to suck!

There is simply no way they could develop a car forum capable of supporting threads of over 1400 pages. That technology is decades ahead of it's time and only available in the UK in recent weeks. (Personally, I think we stole the technology from Aliens in area 51.)

[SlimJim16v]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Doesn't seem to be bothering countries like Israel, who are happy to help them bypass some of the sanctions, for a fee, or countries including those in South America who are happy to trade at increasing levels with Russia, or the very many other countries still happy to buy their oil and gas... including the EU!

They are well known s, that's no reason the rest of the world shouldn't try and keep up the sanctions. It is having an effect, which should slowly increase in effectiveness.