Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[BikeBikeBIke]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Doesn't seem to be bothering countries like Israel, who are happy to help them bypass some of the sanctions, for a fee, or countries including those in South America who are happy to trade at increasing levels with Russia, or the very many other countries still happy to buy their oil and gas... including the EU! There is so much hypocrisy about sanctions - and far too much arrogance as to what effect they have imho.

There are some important sanctions, like denying access to much of the US financial system which is no question a huge blow which will have economic consequences for Russia and can't really be replaced. And I referenced already the freezing of their currency reserves. But much of the other stuff is signalling. And I am suggested the effect of some of those sanctions is heavily diluting over time, to the point it causes no real damage or has any real effect, and just becomes self-defeating.

For sure, but this is well understood and sanctions can be tweaked.

The biggest economic damage will be from Europe reducing our dependence on Russian fossil fuels and that's going to happen regardless and has nothing to do with sanctions.

[saaby93]

EddieSteadyGo said:

And that's the challenge with sanctions - how long before they develop their own version of Swift, run by the Chinese, or their own version of all the things the west have withdrawn? I think we can hold their foreign currency reserves, as that is tremendous leverage, but the value of some of the other stuff just dilutes over time and even becomes self-defeating.

Somebody else said that was the good thing about sanctions - it forces you to create the stuff that's being sanctioned.
If there are pristine factories left behind, that makes a nice bonus.

[BikeBikeBIke]

saaby93 said:

Somebody else said that was the good thing about sanctions - it forces you to create the stuff that's being sanctioned.
If there are pristine factories left behind, that makes a nice bonus.

Of course, if your best and brightest young people are leaving in droves that's not ideal.

[saaby93]

BikeBikeBIke said:

saaby93 said:

Somebody else said that was the good thing about sanctions - it forces you to create the stuff that's being sanctioned.
If there are pristine factories left behind, that makes a nice bonus.

Of course, if your best and brightest young people are leaving in droves that's not ideal.

and if theyre not?
How many Big Macs are going to continue trading under another brand?

[BikeBikeBIke]

saaby93 said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

saaby93 said:

Somebody else said that was the good thing about sanctions - it forces you to create the stuff that's being sanctioned.
If there are pristine factories left behind, that makes a nice bonus.

Of course, if your best and brightest young people are leaving in droves that's not ideal.

and if theyre not?
How many Big Macs are going to continue trading under another brand?

300,000 have left since the invasion. Twice the rate they were leaving before.

I'm pretty sure MacDonalds will trade as normal under a slightly different name.

[768]

From the sound of it they already have.

[tamore]

McDowells?

[off_again]

saaby93 said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

And that's the challenge with sanctions - how long before they develop their own version of Swift, run by the Chinese, or their own version of all the things the west have withdrawn? I think we can hold their foreign currency reserves, as that is tremendous leverage, but the value of some of the other stuff just dilutes over time and even becomes self-defeating.

Somebody else said that was the good thing about sanctions - it forces you to create the stuff that's being sanctioned.
If there are pristine factories left behind, that makes a nice bonus.

The problem is that there arent any pristine factories and getting access to the technology, components and manufacturing capabilities / machines is the biggest challenge. And thats before we get to the raw materials for the production of things that they can no longer buy.

The complexity of this is off the scale. We have seen simple things like ball bearings halt production at some tank factories. Now that Renault has ceased involvement with Lada, how are they going to produce cars when they cant buy the components that operate the engines or even control the production process? And then there are the more complex things like aircraft - they cant even built their own planes without massive reliance on Asia and the West for parts!

Spinning up factories to manufacture chips takes time, and while Russia has some facilities today, they are limited and on 80's era technology. For them to get access to the more recent stuff means going to the fab companies, all of whom are Chinese (wont ship for fear of sanctions), Taiwan (not going to supply) or from the West (sanctioned anyway). They could build their own facilities, but thats years if not decades away!

From what I understand, the Russian economy is pretty self-sufficient for core consumables and products. It was net positive for imports and exports, but they have virtually no capability to produce specific parts, components or products. They may be able to make their own toilet paper, so at least they can wipe their own arses. But when it comes to ECU's for Lada's, missile control systems and even general computing systems - they are stuck.

[vaud]

off_again said:

And then there are the more complex things like aircraft -

Even if they could recreate the parts the aircraft won't be certifiable for anything other than domestic use.

[mondeoman]

off_again said:

Spinning up factories to manufacture chips takes time, and while Russia has some facilities today, they are limited and on 80's era technology. For them to get access to the more recent stuff means going to the fab companies, all of whom are Chinese (wont ship for fear of sanctions), Taiwan (not going to supply) or from the West (sanctioned anyway). They could build their own facilities, but thats years if not decades away!

IIRC Russia have been trying for decades to independently develop chips to rival Taiwan, but the best they managed, after spunking £billions , was something about 10 generations behind.

They have significant problems ahead in many industries if they want to remain current.

[MOTORVATOR]

vaud said:

off_again said:

And then there are the more complex things like aircraft -

Even if they could recreate the parts the aircraft won't be certifiable for anything other than domestic use.

They won't need any more than that once a week on a Greek island costs them a year's salary. Siberia is nice this time of year i hear.

[raftom]

Just saw this video with an American freelance journalist in Severodonetsk. He was shelled during the interview (at 16:59)!

A lot of loaded questions from Amy Goodman (kinda disappointing of her) but he just gave a fairly straight assessment of the situation on the ground. This is from last week.

[FiF]

bristolracer said:

fblm said:

It's quite amusing though that this supposed "superpower" can only produce basic raw material and can't manufacture it's own automotive and aero parts.

Are all car parts embargoed?
That's going to be interesting when all those German made cars they are fond of break down, or will some Volkswagen partner in some obscure Russian loving country start supplying them?

Let's face it Germany is still doing what it can to delay sanctions. It's accused of hijacking negotiations in order to secure concessions to the benefit of its own economy.

In short the accusation is that the EU was scrambling to declare a deal that would win over Hungary who were vetoing an embargo on Russian Oil. EU officials are alleging that Germany saw an opportunity to benefit their own economy by watering down sanctions to just those imports by ship. Thus a concession to allow Hungary, Czech Rep and Slovakia time to wean themselves off be extended to the whole EU.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/27/...

[Ridgemont]

BikeBikeBIke said:

There is simply no way they could develop a car forum capable of supporting threads of over 1400 pages. That technology is decades ahead of it's time and only available in the UK in recent weeks. (Personally, I think we stole the technology from Aliens in area 51.)

Personally I think the proprietors of haymarket may well be aliens from Area 51.

[anonymous-user]

FiF said:

Let's face it Germany is still doing what it can to delay sanctions. It's accused of hijacking negotiations in order to secure concessions to the benefit of its own economy.

In short the accusation is that the EU was scrambling to declare a deal that would win over Hungary who were vetoing an embargo on Russian Oil. EU officials are alleging that Germany saw an opportunity to benefit their own economy by watering down sanctions to just those imports by ship. Thus a concession to allow Hungary, Czech Rep and Slovakia time to wean themselves off be extended to the whole EU.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/27/...

Astonishing. The SPD looks increasingly like it's been bought and paid for!

[Ridgemont]

FiF said:

bristolracer said:

fblm said:

It's quite amusing though that this supposed "superpower" can only produce basic raw material and can't manufacture it's own automotive and aero parts.

Are all car parts embargoed?
That's going to be interesting when all those German made cars they are fond of break down, or will some Volkswagen partner in some obscure Russian loving country start supplying them?

Let's face it Germany is still doing what it can to delay sanctions. It's accused of hijacking negotiations in order to secure concessions to the benefit of its own economy.

In short the accusation is that the EU was scrambling to declare a deal that would win over Hungary who were vetoing an embargo on Russian Oil. EU officials are alleging that Germany saw an opportunity to benefit their own economy by watering down sanctions to just those imports by ship. Thus a concession to allow Hungary, Czech Rep and Slovakia time to wean themselves off be extended to the whole EU.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/27/...

from article said:

Olaf Scholz, the Germany chancellor, raised further questions about how Germany was prepared to show its support for Ukraine on Friday in a tweet that said: “Can violence be fought with violence? Can you only create peace without weapons?

Oh do fk off Olaf.

Weapons are a fking good start.

[phil_cardiff]

Ridgemont said:

FiF said:

bristolracer said:

fblm said:

It's quite amusing though that this supposed "superpower" can only produce basic raw material and can't manufacture it's own automotive and aero parts.

Are all car parts embargoed?
That's going to be interesting when all those German made cars they are fond of break down, or will some Volkswagen partner in some obscure Russian loving country start supplying them?

Let's face it Germany is still doing what it can to delay sanctions. It's accused of hijacking negotiations in order to secure concessions to the benefit of its own economy.

In short the accusation is that the EU was scrambling to declare a deal that would win over Hungary who were vetoing an embargo on Russian Oil. EU officials are alleging that Germany saw an opportunity to benefit their own economy by watering down sanctions to just those imports by ship. Thus a concession to allow Hungary, Czech Rep and Slovakia time to wean themselves off be extended to the whole EU.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/27/...

from article said:

Olaf Scholz, the Germany chancellor, raised further questions about how Germany was prepared to show its support for Ukraine on Friday in a tweet that said: “Can violence be fought with violence? Can you only create peace without weapons?

Oh do fk off Olaf.

Weapons are a fking good start.

Homer Simpson knew.

https://youtu.be/wgGPk1N3K-w

[Tartan Pixie]

Interesting pair of interviews from Lex Fridman, one pro Russian, one pro Ukrainian. Fridman is Russian born but half Ukrainian and studied in the USA (I think at MIT but don't quote me on that). They're long form interviews 2hrs or so.

<><><>

Pro Russian - Oliver Stone: Vladimir Putin and War in Ukraine - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygAqYC8JOQI

Stone describes Ukraine in recent years as being very similar to what many on here have said about Russia, with journalists being murdered and the corruption between oligarchs and the government. He describes an extreme level of censorship and pressure against anyone expressing pro Russian sentiments in Ukraine. He makes a number of claims that I'd want to fact check but it's interesting because he's expressing a view that's widely held in some circles.

I might disagree with him but it's helped me understand the roots of the conflict as a civil war, something that often gets overlooked since February. He also makes a number of valid points such as his opinion of Victoria Nuland. fk Victoria Nuland.

<><><>

Pro Ukrainian - Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Stalin, Hitler, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2a7CDKqWcZ0

Kotkin is a historian including writing a book on Stalin. His views will chime with many on this thread, some interesting titbits through the interview though he does come across as very America-centric.

[Ridgemont]

Tartan Pixie said:

Interesting pair of interviews from Lex Fridman, one pro Russian, one pro Ukrainian. Fridman is Russian born but half Ukrainian and studied in the USA (I think at MIT but don't quote me on that). They're long form interviews 2hrs or so.

<><><>

Pro Russian - Oliver Stone: Vladimir Putin and War in Ukraine - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygAqYC8JOQI

Stone describes Ukraine in recent years as being very similar to what many on here have said about Russia, with journalists being murdered and the corruption between oligarchs and the government. He describes an extreme level of censorship and pressure against anyone expressing pro Russian sentiments in Ukraine. He makes a number of claims that I'd want to fact check but it's interesting because he's expressing a view that's widely held in some circles.

I might disagree with him but it's helped me understand the roots of the conflict as a civil war, something that often gets overlooked since February. He also makes a number of valid points such as his opinion of Victoria Nuland. fk Victoria Nuland.

<><><>

Pro Ukrainian - Stephen Kotkin: Putin, Stalin, Hitler, Zelenskyy, and War in Ukraine - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2a7CDKqWcZ0

Kotkin is a historian including writing a book on Stalin. His views will chime with many on this thread, some interesting titbits through the interview though he does come across as very America-centric.

The Oliver stone interview is 2 hours long. Care to.point us at the relevant point?

[sisu]

BikeBikeBIke said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

Doesn't seem to be bothering countries like Israel, who are happy to help them bypass some of the sanctions, for a fee, or countries including those in South America who are happy to trade at increasing levels with Russia, or the very many other countries still happy to buy their oil and gas... including the EU! There is so much hypocrisy about sanctions - and far too much arrogance as to what effect they have imho.

There are some important sanctions, like denying access to much of the US financial system which is no question a huge blow which will have economic consequences for Russia and can't really be replaced. And I referenced already the freezing of their currency reserves. But much of the other stuff is signalling. And I am suggested the effect of some of those sanctions is heavily diluting over time, to the point it causes no real damage or has any real effect, and just becomes self-defeating.

For sure, but this is well understood and sanctions can be tweaked.

The biggest economic damage will be from Europe reducing our dependence on Russian fossil fuels and that's going to happen regardless and has nothing to do with sanctions.

There is already small scale smuggling going on back into Russia. Small time stuff, multiple phones, clothing, medicine that does not require prescription and Tampons. Entrepreneurial stuff like there was in the 90s, but our border control are taking cars apart at the border in their own time and marking passport numbers for repeat offenders. There is also cross communication with other bordering countries, so hopping to multiple destinations is not working as they flag the carrier. So flying out of Dubai for tampons is expensive for the end user.

On the battle on the ground it is worth noting that the Russians are already trying to take suburban Severodonesk this morning without fully encircling it.
Lets be clear, since May 1st the eastern part of Ukraine has been the main objective and they have had multiple attempts at pincher movements. This should have been something Russia was able to do as they have been there since March 1st and they have an 8 to 1 ratio of men and equipment.
America is sending more equipment, coastal defense missile systems and it ain't stopping.