Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[BikeBikeBIke]

isaldiri said:

Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.

Just out of interest, what would Russia be offering in these negotiations? What concessions?

[BikeBikeBIke]

....and America are still in Korea.

[isaldiri]

TEKNOPUG said:

You think that the US will ever stop arming Ukraine? Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the greatest geo-political gift the US could ever hope to have.

Stop arming Ukraine? Probably not.

Stop arming them to the point Ukraine is capable of mounting successful military attacks to retake the Donbas or Crimea...? bit of a different thing as the US is not exactly insensitive to the economic costs and disruptions of the war dragging on and at some point is likely to think they are better off shutting down the whole damned mess sooner than later.

[J4CKO]

faa77 said:

sisu said:

faa77 said:

WelshChris said:

Let's say Putin decided to go nuclear - What are the chances of the military refusing to co-operate and facilitate any sort of nuclear attack? - Just how brainwashed are these henchmen?

Hopefully not as brainwashed as those 4-5 media presenters we always see.

(Have you seen the programme I'm referring to? One guy always dresses like Stalin)

Medvedev thought he would dress up like Zelenski, grow a beard and is looking like Tsar Nicolas II

This is the guy I meant:

Is that their version of the One Show ?

They do seem deranged, is all of Russia that mental ?

I love the fact that they get upset at "Aggression", its a bit like getting a kicking and the assailant being mortally offended when you try and fight back ?

Does Russia and Russians completely miss that point, bomb a shopping mall and wonder why people are pissed off at you ? Or do most of them just not know ?

[sisu]

EddieSteadyGo said:

CrutyRammers said:

Well, that goes without saying; however there is a limit to what they can do and as their statements now affect public opinion, their options for u turning can become limited. Build the public up to see russia as a barbaric enemy, it's much harder then to say "it's getting a bit expensive, we'll buy their oil again". Much like Boris and Brexit - he went which way he thought the wind was blowing, rather than based on a principle; but once that decision was taken, he couldn't reverse his own course.

If the primary mechanism to hold them to account is public opinion, then I feel that better fits my point rather than yours.

We know public opinion can shift like a weathervane. Once people start to feel the impact of 10% inflation, food prices continuing to increase, public (and private) sector strikes, pending tax increases (corporation tax, national insurance etc) combined with rising interest rates, I think public opinion will quickly shift to worrying about "hard working families" rather than a war in the Donbas.

Too few people have sufficient savings to cushion them from these material changes in the cost of living, and it is going to cause far more pain than we seen so far imho.

But not everything is pivoting on Britain militarily. The idea that Britain holds up Europe or the world economically lost its scare factor when the world shut their doors for Covid and everyone knows the numbers now. You can see that in the withdrawal of companies from Russia. People know how to shut down countries and still keep the goods flowing.

[Jhonno]

isaldiri said:

They will once the flow of western arms stops because the war is being pretty much fully maintained by that as compared to Ukraine's own military capability

Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.

Unfortunately, well, fortunately, the cost for leaving Russia to it are far higher longer term.. So I don't see that happening.

[BikeBikeBIke]

isaldiri said:

Stop arming Ukraine? Probably not.

Stop arming them to the point Ukraine is capable of mounting successful military attacks to retake the Donbas or Crimea...?

No need to. Insurgency + long range fires can make Ukraine too expensive to hold.

[BikeBikeBIke]

J4CKO said:

Is that their version of the One Show ?

They do seem deranged, is all of Russia that mental ?

I love the fact that they get upset at "Aggression", its a bit like getting a kicking and the assailant being mortally offended when you try and fight back ?

Does Russia and Russians completely miss that point, bomb a shopping mall and wonder why people are pissed off at you ? Or do most of them just not know ?

Based on Telegram I think they know a lot more than they let on. I think many\most ordinary Russians are part of the conspiracy, not victims of it.

[Digga]

J4CKO said:

Does Russia and Russians completely miss that point, bomb a shopping mall and wonder why people are pissed off at you ? Or do most of them just not know ?

You've seen the comments before - Russia, that is elite, Moscow Russia, really does not give a fk about anyone else. Not even Russian army, as long as they aren't ethnic (Slavic) Russians.

Deaths in the RoW barely register.

[sisu]

Also understand that everyone knows the rate of attrition.
Russia bombed a Supermarket because Ukraine hit its ammo dumps not because they are making gradual inroads into the Donbas

[HM-2]

spookly said:

isaldiri said:

rigga said:

bristolracer said:

Putin will stop when he has the Donbas.
He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.

But Putin's problem is Ukraine won't stop.

They will once the flow of western arms stops because the war is being pretty much fully maintained by that as compared to Ukraine's own military capability

Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.

The costs of this war are far lower than what we'd face if we leave Ukraine to go it alone.

This. The notion that it's in the medium or long-term economic interest of the West to suspend support for Ukraine is utterly false. The short-term shocks we're currently experiencing are just that, and there's already strong indicators that they're beginning to subside. The West could double their supply of materiel and military capabilities to Ukraine and it still wouldn't be a rounding error in the budget.

[TEKNOPUG]

isaldiri said:

TEKNOPUG said:

You think that the US will ever stop arming Ukraine? Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the greatest geo-political gift the US could ever hope to have.

Stop arming Ukraine? Probably not.

Stop arming them to the point Ukraine is capable of mounting successful military attacks to retake the Donbas or Crimea...? bit of a different thing as the US is not exactly insensitive to the economic costs and disruptions of the war dragging on and at some point is likely to think they are better off shutting down the whole damned mess sooner than later.

The way they shut it down is forcing Russia to completely withdraw from Ukraine. Anything less is a political disaster for the US and will cost them far more in the long term than any current financial disruption. Think of the massive financial military savings from having Russian put back in it's box for a generation or two and the huge boost to the global economy of Eastern European countries and other bordering Russia not having to fear of invasion or other Russian interference.

[sisu]

HM-2 said:

This. The notion that it's in the medium or long-term economic interest of the West to suspend support for Ukraine is utterly false. The short-term shocks we're currently experiencing are just that, and there's already strong indicators that they're beginning to subside. The West could double their supply of materiel and military capabilities to Ukraine and it still wouldn't be a rounding error in the budget.

Germany and France are still under their 2% of GDP contributions.

[BikeBikeBIke]

HM-2 said:

This. The notion that it's in the medium or long-term economic interest of the West to suspend support for Ukraine is utterly false.

Very much this, I'm not even aware of a credible commentator who makes the case otherwise, it doesn't stand 30 seconds of thought.

[J4CKO]

HM-2 said:

spookly said:

isaldiri said:

rigga said:

bristolracer said:

Putin will stop when he has the Donbas.
He will tell his people that the Donbas Russian speakers are safe from the Nazis and its mission accomplished.
Vodka all round, I am Peter the Great, and sorry but McDonald's won't be coming back.

But Putin's problem is Ukraine won't stop.

They will once the flow of western arms stops because the war is being pretty much fully maintained by that as compared to Ukraine's own military capability

Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.

The costs of this war are far lower than what we'd face if we leave Ukraine to go it alone.

This. The notion that it's in the medium or long-term economic interest of the West to suspend support for Ukraine is utterly false. The short-term shocks we're currently experiencing are just that, and there's already strong indicators that they're beginning to subside. The West could double their supply of materiel and military capabilities to Ukraine and it still wouldn't be a rounding error in the budget.

Yeah, and most of this stuff is "In stock" and would likely be aged out and replaced without ever being used, its not really a financial decision really as its a rainy day moment where you need to crack open the piggy bank one way or another, no choice in that matter.

I get the feeling that they could send much more but its kind of a "Boiling Frog " scenario where they send it in gradually, almost playing "Dictator Buckaroo", am sure Putin et all know whats going on though, they are mental, but they arent daft enough to miss that.

Still not sure why its happening though, heard theories and possibilities but still seems completely senseless and pointless, unless the point is lurking somewhere and we have missed it.

[BikeBikeBIke]

J4CKO said:

Yeah, and most of this stuff is "In stock" and would likely be aged out and replaced without ever being used, its not really a financial decision really as its a rainy day moment where you need to crack open the piggy bank one way or another, no choice in that matter.

I get the feeling that they could send much more but its kind of a "Boiling Frog " scenario where they send it in gradually, almost playing "Dictator Buckaroo", am sure Putin et all know whats going on though, they are mental, but they arent daft enough to miss that.

Still not sure why its happening though, heard theories and possibilities but still seems completely senseless and pointless, unless the point is lurking somewhere and we have missed it.

I *think* the training overhead dwarfs other factors.

PS: Dictator buckaroo. Love it.

[CrutyRammers]

BikeBikeBIke said:

isaldiri said:

They will once the flow of western arms stops because the war is being pretty much fully maintained by that as compared to Ukraine's own military capability

Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.

Iraq II, Afgan Vietnam.

Even democracies can keep wars going long after the public turn against them. And I have no sense of the public turning away from this war - there are Ukranian flags everywhere. And this war will cost zero casualties and is very winnable unlike the above.

The West can stick this out longer than Russia. Certainly we can give it 10 years and I doubt Putin has 10 years left in power presiding over a basket case economy.

Yep. In those other conflicts, there was much public disquiet about our presence there, the inhabitants generally not wanting it (or such was the perception) and our own troops getting blown up daily. And still they kept it up for years and spent untold billions.

In this case you have a very clear "bad guy attacking the underdog" scenario, no casualties for us, and lots of video of thankful troops shouting "God Save the Queen" while blowing up enemy tanks. Entirely different in terms of public support.

[anonymous-user]

isaldiri said:

They will once the flow of western arms stops because the war is being pretty much fully maintained by that as compared to Ukraine's own military capability

Once western attention shifts as there are considerably more important domestic issues to attempt to get sorted and the effort/costs are viewed as being greater than forcing an end to the mess in a far away place, Ukraine will stop and negotiate because they have to.

Dream on Vlad.

[CrutyRammers]

US, UK, Canada, Japan join in banning russian gold imports.

[CrutyRammers]

Strikes on snake island been going on all day according to twitter