Russia invades Ukraine. Volume 2

[Whoozit]

off_again said:

take a look at Finland. 280,000 war time strength and up to an additional 900,000 reserve strength. But they have been operating with an extensive training & re-training program for decades. They might not have the biggest tank or air force in the region, but what they do have is a well trained active and reserve army

What's stopping the UK and European states from reinstating military service? OK, perhaps not the two weeks every year the Swiss have, but a basic training round at say 16 and then five year refreshers?

[MOTORVATOR]

UK now sending six M270 total. Three on behalf of Norway that are sending theirs here in exchange for upgrade.

[simo1863]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Lots of weapons with freaky sizes going to Ukraine from Russia. Shortage of Ammo? I hope so.


https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1542181620...

I think the one thing they can still churn out fairly easily are their common 152mm dumb artillery rounds, and will have masses stockpiled. I think this is more likely to replace some of the artillery units that seems vulnerable to counter battery fire, or to try to combat them being outranged (not that it's as simple as bigger round = further range).

[HM-2]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Lots of weapons with freaky sizes going to Ukraine from Russia. Shortage of Ammo? I hope so.


https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1542181620...

Holy st, most of that stuff was obsolete in the late 60s. Apparently Russia only had 9 in active service at the start of the war.

[vonuber]

Interview with a women from what should have been the vaguely sympathetic (at least compared to the west) region of Kharkiv:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vngc1q/o...

[isaldiri]

Bacardi said:

Why do EddieSteadyGo and isaldiri seem to be Putin fluffers?

Well I'm mildly amused and actually rather reassured to be considered on the same heretical side as Eddiesteadygo for not quite being as 'on side' with the views of most of the other posters here....

[HM-2]

isaldiri said:

Bacardi said:

Why do EddieSteadyGo and isaldiri seem to be Putin fluffers?

Well I'm mildly amused and actually rather reassured to be considered on the same heretical side as Eddiesteadygo for not quite being as 'on side' with the views of most of the other posters here....

To be fair most of your stuff comes across as "Just Asking Questions" but like 90% of it could be addressed by 5 minutes due diligence via Google rather than needing to be a back and forth on the thread.

[Adam.]

off_again said:

And just to add to this:

https://minusrus.com/en

Or:

https://uacrisis.org/en/total-estimated-losses-of-...

Ok, so they are Ukrainian sources and needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. However, several media sources have indicated that their estimates are probably pretty accurate. So how about the Center for Strategic & International Studies:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-casualties-u...

And just one of multiple released snippets of intercepted Russian communications (yes, I know, seriously they are STILL not using encrypted comms. How bloody stupid do you have to be?):

https://www.yahoo.com/video/intercepted-russian-mi...

And it goes on and on and on. Yes, Ukraine is taking losses of hundreds per day, which is not good. But what is clear is that the Russians are taking significantly more. Estimates seem to be about double for Russian vs Ukrainian losses, which is not good. Ukraine has more recruits but struggles with training and experience. Russia is now bringing back ex-soldiers who are over 50 and dont get to be medically checked.... nice....

And here is a nice article about the depletion of the stocks of Russian missiles and their inability to manufacturer what they are burning through:

https://cepa.org/missed-targets-the-struggles-of-r...

And as others have mentioned, thats before we get to the use of T-62 tanks in the battlefield - seriously, 1960's tanks? WTAF? And the current stocks of Russian armor is something that Perun and others have covered in detail, but they dont have 10's of thousands in stock. They have around 3000 in usable form, THATS IT. They have burned through something like 1500 already in just over 100 days.....And the Ukrainians have been pretty much static on their total number (replaced by European nations or captured Russian), the Russians are getting ground up on the battle field.

However, this means nothing in the face of Russian tactics - keep throwing men at the battle and hope for a breakthrough at some point. 50+ generals, 15 senior Kremlin leaders and tens of thousands dead, but keep throwing those men at the war, it will change, right?

Thanks and to bikebikebike, this is more encouraging.

Will have a read.

Hopefully the attrition will start to tell at some point and Ukraine will push them back.


Not sure why some of this information is not hitting mainstream media, everything I read is full of depressing atrocities (rightly so) and Ukraine losses when they should also be highlighting lack of Russia success and their losses

[sisu]

Whoozit said:

off_again said:

take a look at Finland. 280,000 war time strength and up to an additional 900,000 reserve strength. But they have been operating with an extensive training & re-training program for decades. They might not have the biggest tank or air force in the region, but what they do have is a well trained active and reserve army

What's stopping the UK and European states from reinstating military service? OK, perhaps not the two weeks every year the Swiss have, but a basic training round at say 16 and then five year refreshers?

The way we have it here is that if you don't want to do Military service you do community service for the same amount, pushing old people around the park, my favourite are guys going around with asphalt fixing all the potholes each summer in our village.
But most choose it as you get to shoot real guns, get a free HGV or pilots licence, military police, border security, navigate a boat.
As an employer we can claim a tax write off towards a replacement staff member, something we use as a short term work experience like Maternity leave. Which helps reduce unemployment issues because we have a flow of people learning. We also get our grand parents to act as teachers assistants for school kids, they get a free meal, as school meals are include also act as a perspective or stand in for kids who don't have a Grand parent near, it also gets them out of the house for a couple of hours with other kids. My father in law made bird boxes with his class.

[off_again]

simo1863 said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

Lots of weapons with freaky sizes going to Ukraine from Russia. Shortage of Ammo? I hope so.


https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1542181620...

I think the one thing they can still churn out fairly easily are their common 152mm dumb artillery rounds, and will have masses stockpiled. I think this is more likely to replace some of the artillery units that seems vulnerable to counter battery fire, or to try to combat them being outranged (not that it's as simple as bigger round = further range).

From some analysis that I have seen over the last few weeks, Russia has been consistently losing their artillery. Not in massive numbers, but its getting depleted pretty quickly and this makes sense in the context of that. Replace what they have lost with other stuff that potentially has longer range. Makes sense, but I have a problem (as do others) here in a couple of specific areas:

1) Russian tactics really havent adapted to the battlefield. They keep amassing field artillery in static locations and not protecting them. They then get picked off one-by-one. Making it bigger doesnt change this fundamental failing. How many videos do we need to see of drones watching Russian positions?
2) Logistics - so they currently have 152, 122 and 115mm shells - now you are adding more variance to this? There is a reason why NATO fixed on certain sizes - makes it so much easier to re-supply and deliver ordinance. And its been repeatedly reported that Russia is running out of trucks! How are they going to resupply these things?
3) Counter battery delivery - Ukraine has some and will continue to receive true mobility systems that can deliver precision munitions over 40km. Shoot and scoot as it is referred to as some is what Ukraine is switching to. And as NATO nations continue to deliver advanced radar and counter battery systems, this is only going to get worse.

Big guns to the battlefield - that will work, right? Sorry Russia, back to the planning table again and think of something else. You are just making Ukraine the center of the world for metal recycling.

[anonymous-user]

off_again said:

From some analysis that I have seen over the last few weeks, Russia has been consistently losing their artillery. ...

Presumably the guys who can operate and aim them don't fair well when artillery positions get taken out either. Any idiot can drive a tank but I think aiming an artillery gun takes more than a morning to learn, especially when you're illiterate. And drunk.

[HM-2]

Those archaic 240mm pieces are very short range. 9km with normal ammo, and 20km with rocket assisted projectiles.

I suspect they're mobilising those as city smashers- thin walled shells with big explosive fillings compared to normal artillery shells. They're also quite effective against entrenched positions or trench networks thanks to their steep trajectory.

[Bluedot]

sisu said:

Whoozit said:

off_again said:

take a look at Finland. 280,000 war time strength and up to an additional 900,000 reserve strength. But they have been operating with an extensive training & re-training program for decades. They might not have the biggest tank or air force in the region, but what they do have is a well trained active and reserve army

What's stopping the UK and European states from reinstating military service? OK, perhaps not the two weeks every year the Swiss have, but a basic training round at say 16 and then five year refreshers?

The way we have it here is that if you don't want to do Military service you do community service for the same amount, pushing old people around the park, my favourite are guys going around with asphalt fixing all the potholes each summer in our village.
But most choose it as you get to shoot real guns, get a free HGV or pilots licence, military police, border security, navigate a boat.
As an employer we can claim a tax write off towards a replacement staff member, something we use as a short term work experience like Maternity leave. Which helps reduce unemployment issues because we have a flow of people learning. We also get our grand parents to act as teachers assistants for school kids, they get a free meal, as school meals are include also act as a perspective or stand in for kids who don't have a Grand parent near, it also gets them out of the house for a couple of hours with other kids. My father in law made bird boxes with his class.

All sound pretty sensible to me.
I can't even begin to imagine the horror and outrage should they ever try and implement something like that in this country

[isaldiri]

HM-2 said:

To be fair most of your stuff comes across as "Just Asking Questions" but like 90% of it could be addressed by 5 minutes due diligence via Google rather than needing to be a back and forth on the thread.

Do tell what were these "just asking questions" that I supposedly was asking yesterday which could be addressed by 5 minutes of google?

If I remember correctly, most of the discussion I was involved with yesterday concerned not being as adamant as some others that western resolve to keep up the conflict at current levels would remain quite as high compared to forcing some kind of ceasefire agreement whether the Ukrainians liked it or not (especially as they are wholly dependent on western arms they won't effectively have a choice if it came to it). How would that be addressed by google?

[spookly]

isaldiri said:

HM-2 said:

To be fair most of your stuff comes across as "Just Asking Questions" but like 90% of it could be addressed by 5 minutes due diligence via Google rather than needing to be a back and forth on the thread.

Do tell what were these "just asking questions" that I supposedly was asking yesterday which could be addressed by 5 minutes of google?

If I remember correctly, most of the discussion I was involved with yesterday concerned not being as adamant as some others that western resolve to keep up the conflict at current levels would remain quite as high compared to forcing some kind of ceasefire agreement whether the Ukrainians liked it or not (especially as they are wholly dependent on western arms they won't effectively have a choice if it came to it). How would that be addressed by google?

By reading all the news articles quoting most world leaders becoming more, not less, steadfast in their support for Ukraine.

[sisu]

fblm said:

off_again said:

From some analysis that I have seen over the last few weeks, Russia has been consistently losing their artillery. ...

Presumably the guys who can operate and aim them don't fair well when artillery positions get taken out either. Any idiot can drive a tank but I think aiming an artillery gun takes more than a morning to learn, especially when you're illiterate. And drunk.

More specifically a bigger gun like these 203mm Malka that are on their way from St Petersburg weigh 46t is not as mobile as a smaller tank or artillary unit that weighs 22t hat can be towed behind a normal HGV, they need a big unit to move it so more than likely they will be unloaded and they take a photo. The shells weigh 15kg each and again these will all be based near a train station as logistics of ammo is not a great success.

[Evanivitch]

fblm said:

off_again said:

From some analysis that I have seen over the last few weeks, Russia has been consistently losing their artillery. ...

Presumably the guys who can operate and aim them don't fair well when artillery positions get taken out either. Any idiot can drive a tank but I think aiming an artillery gun takes more than a morning to learn, especially when you're illiterate. And drunk.

Nope.

The aiming and operation of an artillery gun is grunt work. It doesn't take much brains or education to manage (about 5 days for an initial operator). Aside from settings fuze, loading projectile and charge, the other jobs are generally turning some handled to align onto the ordered elevation and bearing. It's just 2 hand cranked wheels...

The more complex tasks are in the artillery directing (i.e. the target spotter and artillery adjuster) and the artillery command post (which was traditionally the maths required to determine elevation and bearing, but not by computer).

[isaldiri]

spookly said:

By reading all the news articles quoting most world leaders becoming more, not less, steadfast in their support for Ukraine.

Well that's the point i suppose, I don't think it's quite as clearcut as you seem to that the 'steadfastness of support' will last for months. Let's see what the politicians actually do later rather than say now in the year anyway when or if public opinion shifts as talk is cheap (especially when it concerns politicians)....

[spookly]

isaldiri said:

spookly said:

By reading all the news articles quoting most world leaders becoming more, not less, steadfast in their support for Ukraine.

Well that's the point i suppose, I don't think it's quite as clearcut as you seem to that the 'steadfastness of support' will last for months. Let's see what the politicians actually do later rther than say now in the year anyway when or if public opinion shifts as for now talk is cheap.

Yes, we'll see.
I can't see support wavering. What is being provided to Ukraine is a small proportion of NATO countries defence spending and their international aid spending. I can't see a more deserving place to be spending that money at the moment. All these leaders seem to realise that the genie won't go back in the bottle and putting the problem off until Putin's next invasion isn't a viable strategy. Even ending the war now wouldn't ease inflationary pressures, I'm sure they know that too. The only way this could go back to pre-invasion would be a complete capitulation to Putin and let him do what he wants..... I really cannot see that option being on the table.

[7mike]

Bluedot said:

sisu said:

Whoozit said:

off_again said:

take a look at Finland. 280,000 war time strength and up to an additional 900,000 reserve strength. But they have been operating with an extensive training & re-training program for decades. They might not have the biggest tank or air force in the region, but what they do have is a well trained active and reserve army

What's stopping the UK and European states from reinstating military service? OK, perhaps not the two weeks every year the Swiss have, but a basic training round at say 16 and then five year refreshers?

The way we have it here is that if you don't want to do Military service you do community service for the same amount, pushing old people around the park, my favourite are guys going around with asphalt fixing all the potholes each summer in our village.
But most choose it as you get to shoot real guns, get a free HGV or pilots licence, military police, border security, navigate a boat.
As an employer we can claim a tax write off towards a replacement staff member, something we use as a short term work experience like Maternity leave. Which helps reduce unemployment issues because we have a flow of people learning. We also get our grand parents to act as teachers assistants for school kids, they get a free meal, as school meals are include also act as a perspective or stand in for kids who don't have a Grand parent near, it also gets them out of the house for a couple of hours with other kids. My father in law made bird boxes with his class.

All sound pretty sensible to me.
I can't even begin to imagine the horror and outrage should they ever try and implement something like that in this country

Imagine the horror and outrage in HMF if they had to babysit thousands of whining teenagers. Somehow I don't think the current professional forces are going to benefit from having their time wasted giving the nation's sprogs a two week taster session!