If Britain rejoined the EU tomorrow…
Discussion
Blue62 said:
ClaphamGT3 said:
It was an exercise in giving up rights they took for granted in order to be free of restrictions that they completely imagined that historians will study in bafflement for centuries to come
It’s surely too early to judge, only the other day the great Rees-Mogg announced that we can change the confusing signage inside the Dartford Tunnel now, along with fish fingers it’s another big win. I am interested in the argument around wages though, it’s hard to wade through the data but we have almost 10m people of working age claims benefits while we have record employment, so maybe not everyone is seeing this upturn in earnings.
You seem to have connections from what you’ve posted previously, I’ve got three old Uni mates who are sitting MPs and none of them think the EU would have us back, one is a Brexit Tory the other two are Lab. I do wonder how Boris copes during his regular PR chats with Zelensky when the subject of joining the eu comes up!
The EU never really liked the UK but loved the beer tokens it provided. EU would royally stitch the UK up if it were to board that wobbly ship again, according to my French colleagues at least.
sparta6 said:
A portion of that 10m are also working on the black market while claiming benefits.
.
I’ve no doubt there’s always been a proportion of people working in the black market, ever since taxes were invented, are you suggesting that post Brexit that number is higher? Just wondered why you bothered to make the point about something that is endemic. .
Mortarboard said:
The UK could always rejoin and then just pass legislation to let it ignore the bits it doesn't like...
M.
Yes but not but yes but now. The UK might think it could but it would be reliant on permission that won't be granted. A wise man would remember what picking Boris as your rep results in the rest of the world thinking about you. Rejoin is a stupid argument if it's not prefaced with why would you want the UK anyway. Given the current sM.
t show few would without conditions. I'll maintain my view that talk of rejoin is the UK arguing with itself rather than a realistic prospect.Blue62 said:
ClaphamGT3 said:
It was an exercise in giving up rights they took for granted in order to be free of restrictions that they completely imagined that historians will study in bafflement for centuries to come
It’s surely too early to judge, only the other day the great Rees-Mogg announced that we can change the confusing signage inside the Dartford Tunnel He was invited to a radio interview and given two days notice and a list of questions that would be asked one of which was which EU laws is he looking forward to repealing and all he came up with was the distances given on signs in tunnels.... which wasn't a law but a directive on which members states could use whatever metric they wished and which was introduced following the Mont Blanc tunnel fire which killed 39 people, many of whom could have survived if signage was clearer.
So the person in charge of providing us benefit from Brexit doesn't know the difference between a directive and a law and seems to think that reducing the safety of people is a good thing.
roger.mellie said:
Yes but not but yes but now. The UK might think it could but it would be reliant on permission that won't be granted. A wise man would remember what picking Boris as your rep results in the rest of the world thinking about you. Rejoin is a stupid argument if it's not prefaced with why would you want the UK anyway. Given the current st show few would without conditions. I'll maintain my view that talk of rejoin is the UK arguing with itself rather than a realistic prospect.
Of course talk of rejoining is stupid. I suspect the reason this thread was started was the other Brexit thread wasn't exactly going the way certain folk hoped it would t show few would without conditions. I'll maintain my view that talk of rejoin is the UK arguing with itself rather than a realistic prospect.
But I'm a cynical old codger me.
M.
DeltonaS said:
Interesting how different news outlets seem to have a different spin on things.https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/06/26/an...
The risk of a sudden “correction” across the eurozone’s financial markets is high, declared the President of the European Central Bank last week.
“Risks to financial stability have perceptibly increased since the beginning of this year,” said Christine Lagarde. “While the correction in asset prices has so far been orderly, the risk of a further and possibly abrupt fall in asset prices remains severe”.
These are tough times for all major economies. But you could be forgiven for thinking Britain is faring much worse than most.
Since we voted to leave the European Union, six years ago last week, it’s become an article of faith among some – much of the civil service and almost all mainstream broadcasters, for instance – that the UK has seriously underperformed. Trade has collapsed, investment has dried up and growth has lagged behind the rest of Europe, we’re so often told
The reality is rather different. Since the Brexit referendum, the “immediate and profound economic shock,” which HM Treasury consistently warned would follow any leave vote, didn’t happen. On the contrary, growth continued.
Over the last six years, in fact, including the troughs and peaks of lockdown, UK GDP has expanded at an accumulated rate of 6.8pc, more than France (6.2pc), Germany (5.5pc) and Italy (2.1pc).
Since 2016, the pound has stayed roughly in line with the euro and the much-hyped mass exodus from the City didn’t materialise. Our world class financial services industry has actually grown even more, with London consolidating its position as a global “super-hub”.
Yes, UK trade has been affected, as was always likely during the early post-Brexit uncertainties. Yet, the combination of delay (Parliament spent three years rowing over whether to implement Brexit) and global lockdown, means assessing the scale of that impact is tough.
It's clear, though, that the threatened collapse of UK trade hasn’t happened. Weeks before the 2016 referendum, ardent Remainer and then Tory MP Anna Soubry warned UK trade with the EU would fall “almost absolutely to zero” if we voted to leave.
But official data last week showed, in the words of the Office for National Statistics, that UK exports of goods to the EU “increased for the third consecutive month in April 2022 and are at the highest levels since records began”.
Eurozone inflation is now 8.1pc and, as in the UK, heading for double-digits. All major economies are raising rates to push down on price pressures. The eurozone is so weak, though, the ECB’s rate remains minus 0.5pc – and is set to increase just 25 basis points in July, before possibly reaching 0pc in September.
The ECB is meanwhile propping up various over-indebted member states – including Italy, one of the world’s largest economies – who can’t depreciate their currencies to escape the economic doldrums. For years, in fact, the ECB has been using quantitative easing to hose down eurozone sovereign bond markets with newly-created money, buying up the debts of eurozone strugglers.
Now sitting on government bonds worth around €5 trillion (£4.3 trillion), the ECB is still making net purchases of over €30 billion a month.
As inflation rises, the spread between yields on German and Italian bonds, the two ends of the eurozone credit risk spectrum, is getting broader. It now stands at around 240 basis points, having more than doubled since the start of the year.
The Germans, Austrians and Dutch, deeply concerned about inflation and sick of bailing-out eurozone laggards, are determined to curtail ECB largesse. The “Club Med” bloc, led by France, wants the money-printing to continue, which is why Lagarde is issuing public warnings that eurozone financial markets are about to collapse.
The stage is indeed set for a re-run of the 2011/12 eurozone crisis.
Bandit said:
Just a reminder to all the remoaners. There’s a 3x 500 page “Benefits of Brexit “ thread full of benefits that we’d miss if we rejoined the EU.
But let’s be honest, you don’t really want to learn do you. You just want yet another thread to bh on?
There are 3 massive "Benefits of Brexit" threads with people on both sides of the divide arguing about why the other is wrong, but it's really bloody painful trying to wade through it all to identify anyone actually posting a clear, practical, tangible benefit. But let’s be honest, you don’t really want to learn do you. You just want yet another thread to b
h on?Lots of "we'll be able to not have EU red tape" and other abstract notions, but posts saying "My specific Brexit benefit was X, the reason it was a benefit is Y, and the value of that benefit is Z"? I'd be delighted if you could point me in the direction of some of those.
Kermit power said:
Bandit said:
Just a reminder to all the remoaners. There’s a 3x 500 page “Benefits of Brexit “ thread full of benefits that we’d miss if we rejoined the EU.
But let’s be honest, you don’t really want to learn do you. You just want yet another thread to bh on?
There are 3 massive "Benefits of Brexit" threads with people on both sides of the divide arguing about why the other is wrong, but it's really bloody painful trying to wade through it all to identify anyone actually posting a clear, practical, tangible benefit. But let’s be honest, you don’t really want to learn do you. You just want yet another thread to b
h on?Lots of "we'll be able to not have EU red tape" and other abstract notions, but posts saying "My specific Brexit benefit was X, the reason it was a benefit is Y, and the value of that benefit is Z"? I'd be delighted if you could point me in the direction of some of those.
After all, its down on page 2 of the discussions list now.
DeltonaS said:
https://fd.nl/economie/1443179/de-balans-van-zes-j...
Other victims are business investment, which has not increased since the referendum. The pandemic has even brought a setback, but where other G7 countries have recovered, the UK is stuck at a lower level. Compared to six years ago, business investment in the US is up 23%, with France and Italy just behind. The UK stands at -8.4%.
https://www.ey.com/en_uk/news/2022/05/foreign-direct-investment-into-the-uk-rebounds-in-2021-but-remains-below-2019-levels-new-ey-report-reveals Other victims are business investment, which has not increased since the referendum. The pandemic has even brought a setback, but where other G7 countries have recovered, the UK is stuck at a lower level. Compared to six years ago, business investment in the US is up 23%, with France and Italy just behind. The UK stands at -8.4%.
31st May 2022
The UK and Europe recovered some ground after 2020’s pandemic-driven decline in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects
UK recorded 993 inbound FDI projects in 2021 – up 18 projects (1.8%) from 2020’s 975 projects
UK remains second in the European league table for FDI projects, while stand-out performer France retained top spot; third-placed Germany hosted fewer projects than last year, falling further behind the UK
UK did better on project value, with FDI into the UK in 2021 expected to generate more jobs per project than in France or Germany
London has retained its title as Europe’s most attractive city for FDI, but still less dominant within the UK than pre-pandemic. Scotland performed well once again
DeltonaS said:
https://fd.nl/economie/1443179/de-balans-van-zes-j...
According to the budget watchdog Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK economy is 4% worse off in the long run than it would have been if it had stayed in the EU. That equates to roughly £100bn a year and £40bn in tax revenues. About half of that damage is yet to come.
Really - this old chestnut again being misinterpeted !According to the budget watchdog Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK economy is 4% worse off in the long run than it would have been if it had stayed in the EU. That equates to roughly £100bn a year and £40bn in tax revenues. About half of that damage is yet to come.
OBR suggested that the UK may see 4% less growth over a mid term period. That does not equate to £100b a year from year 1. You need to look at the garbage you are reading DS !
DeltonaS said:
https://fd.nl/economie/1443179/de-balans-van-zes-j...
Less investment and trade
In the meantime, the pound has lost 10% permanently since the referendum.
How can a currency "permenantly lose 10%"? What a bizzare statement !Less investment and trade
In the meantime, the pound has lost 10% permanently since the referendum.
Bandit said:
DeltonaS said:
https://fd.nl/economie/1443179/de-balans-van-zes-j...
According to the budget watchdog Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK economy is 4% worse off in the long run than it would have been if it had stayed in the EU. That equates to roughly £100bn a year and £40bn in tax revenues. About half of that damage is yet to come.
Really - this old chestnut again being misinterpeted !According to the budget watchdog Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK economy is 4% worse off in the long run than it would have been if it had stayed in the EU. That equates to roughly £100bn a year and £40bn in tax revenues. About half of that damage is yet to come.
OBR suggested that the UK may see 4% less growth over a mid term period. That does not equate to £100b a year from year 1. You need to look at the garbage you are reading DS !
king deal.This is indeed an old chestnut. It's a 300kg bloody great chestnut that we warned people about prior to the referendum and plenty of pro-Brexit pillocks dismissed at the time as "project fear" and no doubt is still dismissed by the ostrich fraternity.
Mortarboard said:
DeejRC said:
No, I really am not. I deal with products, not chemicals.I just have to deal with certain coatings on certain products AND have to deal EU and the UK and certain jumped up supranational authorities.
Oh joy. I had to have a conversation with the Irish EPA during one of their pushes to reduce solvents in coatings. I told then I'd gladly use water based paint, if it could last 30 years on metal in the Atlantic without maintenance.Took a could of times for the word "no" to sink in. (Was fir offshore wind farms)M.
It’s already slipped my mind which one it was. Sorry Mortar, I’m on the product side of things rather than the chemicals, so I don’t keep the chemical info in my head unless I need it.
Bandit said:
Kermit power said:
Bandit said:
Just a reminder to all the remoaners. There’s a 3x 500 page “Benefits of Brexit “ thread full of benefits that we’d miss if we rejoined the EU.
But let’s be honest, you don’t really want to learn do you. You just want yet another thread to bh on?
There are 3 massive "Benefits of Brexit" threads with people on both sides of the divide arguing about why the other is wrong, but it's really bloody painful trying to wade through it all to identify anyone actually posting a clear, practical, tangible benefit. But let’s be honest, you don’t really want to learn do you. You just want yet another thread to b
h on?Lots of "we'll be able to not have EU red tape" and other abstract notions, but posts saying "My specific Brexit benefit was X, the reason it was a benefit is Y, and the value of that benefit is Z"? I'd be delighted if you could point me in the direction of some of those.
After all, its down on page 2 of the discussions list now.
Of course you know this yourself, as if the threads were littered with them as you believe, you'd be able to point them out rather than pretending that it's only my supposed unwillingness to learn that's preventing me.
ATG said:
Bandit said:
DeltonaS said:
https://fd.nl/economie/1443179/de-balans-van-zes-j...
According to the budget watchdog Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK economy is 4% worse off in the long run than it would have been if it had stayed in the EU. That equates to roughly £100bn a year and £40bn in tax revenues. About half of that damage is yet to come.
Really - this old chestnut again being misinterpeted !According to the budget watchdog Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK economy is 4% worse off in the long run than it would have been if it had stayed in the EU. That equates to roughly £100bn a year and £40bn in tax revenues. About half of that damage is yet to come.
OBR suggested that the UK may see 4% less growth over a mid term period. That does not equate to £100b a year from year 1. You need to look at the garbage you are reading DS !
king deal.This is indeed an old chestnut. It's a 300kg bloody great chestnut that we warned people about prior to the referendum and plenty of pro-Brexit pillocks dismissed at the time as "project fear" and no doubt is still dismissed by the ostrich fraternity.
Bandit said:
It’s a guesstimate of 4% GDP loss of growth over a large number of years based on assumptions that the U.K. and EU would remain exactly as they were in 2016. In short, totally unrealistic and totally immeasurable. But so many remainers just misinterpret what was said and lap it up as gospel. I think we know who the pillocks are.
I just wish the brexit lot would stop moaning, they won, they need to get over it and start focussing on giving all of us the benefits that they were so eager to see us have. I feel like they are holding out on the rest of the population. Maybe it's spite, maybe ....
Bandit said:
It’s a guesstimate of 4% GDP loss of growth over a large number of years based on assumptions that the U.K. and EU would remain exactly as they were in 2016. In short, totally unrealistic and totally immeasurable. But so many remainers just misinterpret what was said and lap it up as gospel. I think we know who the pillocks are.
That was a overly rosy assessment (4%, over large number of years)https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/25/w...
Some estimates are that is already 5% smaller that it should have been sans Brexit.
M.
Bandit said:
I’m the one not biting Blue. As if you remainers are actually interested in Brexit benefits!
I didn't aim the comment at you, or accuse you of 'biting?' In any event, perhaps you could explain the situation regarding QE across the Eurozone and make a comparison with the UK, since you decided to make a specific point about Eurozone QE to drive down debt. I'm certainly interested in Brexit benefits, I believe we are better 'in' but leaving presented opportunities which have not been grasped in my view, but perhaps you could point out what we have actually gained. I refer you to Rees-Mogg and the Dartford Tunnel. Kermit power said:
Just because I don't believe we will ever generate sufficient benefits to make Brexit worthwhile, that doesn't mean I'm not desperately keen to be appraised of any tangible benefits that lessen the blow of leaving.
So “desperately keen” that you can’t be bothered to read the thread where Brexit benefits are discussed at great length? 
You lot really are amusing!
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