Cost of living squeeze in 2022, 23 & 24 (Vol. 2)

[eccles]

irc said:

Looking at UK holiday cottages. Already have an August week booked. Slightly less than last year. That looks to be against the tend though.

I see two trends. Prices hiked massively. Same cottage we had two years ago in same month - June, up from £660 to £980.

Though there seems to be more weeks available. More punters reverting to abroad rather than £3k for a July/August two week self catering cottage in the UK?

We noticed a huge price hike after lockdown finished. We held off booking anything until after Christmas that year and pretty much all the prices dropped by a third in January.
We went' to rebook the same place for this year whilst we were staying there last summer and the Sykes website had the price up by nearly £300. I then checked Booking.com and got it for £50 cheaper than last year, with most of the confirmation email etc coming from Sykes! We're paying just over £500 for a 2 bed house with a large garden within close walking distance of a beach in the second week in July.

[bitchstewie]

Blimey.

The UK recession will be almost as deep as that of Russia, economists predict

[turbobloke]

bhstewie said:

Blimey.

The UK recession will be almost as deep as that of Russia, economists predict

Link said:

Goldman’s projections for the U.K. are below what it cites as a market consensus that sketches a 0.5% contraction in 2023 and a 1.1% expansion in 2024.

The bleak situation painted is an outlier, that's another blimey.

[Vanden Saab]

turbobloke said:

bhstewie said:

Blimey.

The UK recession will be almost as deep as that of Russia, economists predict

Link said:

Goldman’s projections for the U.K. are below what it cites as a market consensus that sketches a 0.5% contraction in 2023 and a 1.1% expansion in 2024.

The bleak situation painted is an outlier, that's another blimey.

At least the lack of workers is going to be sorted with their estimate that unemployment is going to rise to 5.6%

[turbobloke]

Every cloud

[skwdenyer]

turbobloke said:

bhstewie said:

Blimey.

The UK recession will be almost as deep as that of Russia, economists predict

Link said:

Goldman’s projections for the U.K. are below what it cites as a market consensus that sketches a 0.5% contraction in 2023 and a 1.1% expansion in 2024.

The bleak situation painted is an outlier, that's another blimey.

I think the more important stat for the real world is this:

CNBC said:

The U.K. independent Office for Budget Responsibility projects that the country faces its sharpest fall in living standards on record. Alongside Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt’s budget statement in November, the OBR forecast that real household disposable income — a measure of living standards — will fall by 4.3% in 2022-23.

That's 4.3% *on average* which will translate into some mighty big falls for some sectors.

And AIUI that's *before* looking at the huge rises in the costs of living.

OBR reports elsewhere that, even after the various Govt stimulus packages, RHDI will have fallen by over 7% over 2021-22 to 2023-24.



This coupled with Brexit, the stunning lack of investment (public + private) over the years, the weak manufacturing base, the chronic balance of payments problems, and so on has the potential IMHO to pretty much knock on the head any pretence of the UK being a leading economy. In PPP terms (which is a pretty good measure of how people feel about their lot day to day), that's going to send the UK below Italy, which is going to be a bit of a shock to the whole "5th/6th largest economy in the world" crowd.

[GreatGranny]

Re holiday lets, our AirBNB bookings are down from last year.

North Norfolk coast, 2 bed flat 2 mins from the sea.

Nothing Jan, Feb March or May.

2 in April, 3 in June and nearly full July and August.

Have friends with properties in same town and report similar fall.

We don't need the income but it's been a nice earner since we bought it in 2019.

It should still bring in £8k ish this year after tax and running costs.

We have a Hive and normally put the heating on 2 hours before the guests arrive if it's cold.
Even in winter heating costs are low as it's mid floor and in a row of terrace houses.
Would never adjust the heating when guests are in.
Last year in the heatwave one guest had the heating at 21!
I'm presuming it was to dry towels/swimming costumes but it must have been like an oven in there!

[snuffy]

GreatGranny said:

Last year in the heatwave one guest had the heating at 21!

Am I missing something here?

If my heating was set to 21 in the middle of a heat wave then it would never come on.

[Rufus Stone]

I thought my weekly Asda visit was expensive this week, so I checked the receipt when I got home.

amongst other increases the stand out one was the pack of bacon, increased by 22%.

[turbobloke]

Rufus Stone said:

I thought my weekly Asda visit was expensive this week, so I checked the receipt when I got home.

amongst other increases the stand out one was the pack of bacon, increased by 22%.

Having forgotten to buy baked beans at Tesco I visited the local CoOp, a smaller convenience store so more expensive and in that sense to be expected. Early December was the last time I shopped there, noticing their standard size tins of beans cost 45p. Now 60p which is a 33% increase in 1 month.

[gotoPzero]

I think its starting to bite hard now and we have another 3-4 months of this I reckon where companies are playing catch up and putting prices up.
Re the wages thing, something people forget is a 10% in wage can mean a 15%+ increase for employers (and thus customers) due to employer NI, work place pension, holiday and bonus. Plus things that you dont even think about like insurance. Your employer liability is based on wages, so every year you are going to get a nice rise in that too. It all adds up.

I am in France at the moment and its considerably more expensive than last time I was here. Yet to do a supermarket shop but fuel is 2+ euro a litre and stuff like Mcdonalds is 30% more. Stopped at the services yesterday and a sandwich, crisps and drink came to 12 euros...

[Earthdweller]

gotoPzero said:

I am in France at the moment and its considerably more expensive than last time I was here. Yet to do a supermarket shop but fuel is 2+ euro a litre and stuff like Mcdonalds is 30% more. Stopped at the services yesterday and a sandwich, crisps and drink came to 12 euros...

Have they stopped the fuel subsidy? When I was there in Sept it was around the €1.40 mark

McD’s IS expensive in France, always thought it was much more than U.K. .. but they do seem to have a better ( and fresher ) selection of stuff available

[gotoPzero]

Earthdweller said:

gotoPzero said:

I am in France at the moment and its considerably more expensive than last time I was here. Yet to do a supermarket shop but fuel is 2+ euro a litre and stuff like Mcdonalds is 30% more. Stopped at the services yesterday and a sandwich, crisps and drink came to 12 euros...

Have they stopped the fuel subsidy? When I was there in Sept it was around the €1.40 mark

McD’s IS expensive in France, always thought it was much more than U.K. .. but they do seem to have a better ( and fresher ) selection of stuff available

Must have yes, had a hunt round today and the cheapest I could find was 1.84 for 95.
I paid 2.12 and 2.18 on the motorways on the way down!

Pretty average looking basket of shopping was 120 euros too. And they say brexit has caused prices to go up in the UK.. I dont think so!!!

[Earthdweller]

gotoPzero said:

Earthdweller said:

gotoPzero said:

I am in France at the moment and its considerably more expensive than last time I was here. Yet to do a supermarket shop but fuel is 2+ euro a litre and stuff like Mcdonalds is 30% more. Stopped at the services yesterday and a sandwich, crisps and drink came to 12 euros...

Have they stopped the fuel subsidy? When I was there in Sept it was around the €1.40 mark

McD’s IS expensive in France, always thought it was much more than U.K. .. but they do seem to have a better ( and fresher ) selection of stuff available

Must have yes, had a hunt round today and the cheapest I could find was 1.84 for 95.
I paid 2.12 and 2.18 on the motorways on the way down!

Pretty average looking basket of shopping was 120 euros too. And they say brexit has caused prices to go up in the UK.. I dont think so!!!

That’s back to roughly where it was when I was there in July around the €2.05-2.10 mark on main routes, maybe a little cheaper in the supermarkets

It’s very easy to become myopic and see only what’s around you and forget it’s not just the U.K. where it’s happening

[finlo]

A haircut that cost me £12 six weeks ago cost me £16 this morning!

[hotchy]

finlo said:

A haircut that cost me £12 six weeks ago cost me £16 this morning!

You should trade me your hair and have my scalp, ill gladly pay the £16 lol

[snuffy]

turbobloke said:

Early December was the last time I shopped there, noticing their standard size tins of beans cost 45p. Now 60p which is a 33% increase in 1 month.

But it has to change price at some point in time.

If it was 45p on 1st of December and it went up to 60p on the 2nd (just say it did), then you could claim it's gone up 33% in 1 day.

That's why you need to measure any increase over a longer period, a year being the accepted time period for such calculations.

[kingston12]

finlo said:

A haircut that cost me £12 six weeks ago cost me £16 this morning!

I get a haircut once a month and the price has gone up £1 each time since the summer. It’s up about 50% in total since then.

[okgo]

McDonald’s hash browns up again. £1.70 from £1.20 in 6 months!

[mids]

finlo said:

A haircut that cost me £12 six weeks ago cost me £16 this morning!

Yep, my dog walker just put her cost up the same (well, from £12 to £15 so a 25% increase year on year). The text message explaining this tried to justify it with a vague 'have to cover increased costs' but not sure what that actually is. Probably her haircut cost has also gone up so she has to respond, etc etc. There's no escape.