Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4
Discussion
pingu393 said:
Evanivitch said:
China wouldn't need to use land forces when it's Navy and air force would be sufficiently effective if Taiwan was not in receipt of US/Japan/Australia support.
Taiwan wouldn't starve. The US won't let them.If PRC should take it, it would show the other countries in the region which way the wind is blowing in terms of world power.
Talksteer said:
You have most of the answers to your question in your own post. It's all about the difference in motivation and environment.
The Ukrainians are fighting for their homeland in their homeland. This isn't Vegas, what happens in Ukraine stays in Ukraine, cowardice and bravery will stay with you, not least if you are fighting in a unit with your neighbours.
Fundamentally the motivation for the soldiers is one of fitting in, group cohesion, if your comrades are brave, selfless and diligent then in all likelihood the desire of young men to fit in will make them behave likewise.
Thus the soldiers who survive being brave, despite being green are likely to naturally select those who are proficient.
If we look at the Russian side, there are some professional units who did quite well. The only issue is that these units were deployed until they had suffered heavy attrition and they deployed their training units so these units haven't been requipped. Without proper R&R these units can reach the state of fatigue when that group reinforcement breaks down, those battle hardened men no longer need to prove anything. Ideally you would shuffle them around and have the seasoned soldiers train/motivate the new men
However the reports coming back from most Russian units are that moral and culture is pretty poor. They have issues with soldier welfare and also with reliable communication, hence the multiple captures of villages. In this environment you have examples of soldiers, faking engagements, claiming to have advanced to places they haven't and killed vast numbers of Ukrainians.
I'm this environment the soldiers who have survived are likely to be the ones who, simulated assaults, abandoned their kit, stole their kit off other units, fell back while the unit they were meant to support got chewed up etc. etc.
Exactly, the Ukrainians are motivated because they are fighting for their lives, family, friends and their country. They have seen what the Russians do to them if they capture them, the treatment they received as part of the USSR under Russian rule is still in living memory for them. The Ukrainians are fighting for their homeland in their homeland. This isn't Vegas, what happens in Ukraine stays in Ukraine, cowardice and bravery will stay with you, not least if you are fighting in a unit with your neighbours.
Fundamentally the motivation for the soldiers is one of fitting in, group cohesion, if your comrades are brave, selfless and diligent then in all likelihood the desire of young men to fit in will make them behave likewise.
Thus the soldiers who survive being brave, despite being green are likely to naturally select those who are proficient.
If we look at the Russian side, there are some professional units who did quite well. The only issue is that these units were deployed until they had suffered heavy attrition and they deployed their training units so these units haven't been requipped. Without proper R&R these units can reach the state of fatigue when that group reinforcement breaks down, those battle hardened men no longer need to prove anything. Ideally you would shuffle them around and have the seasoned soldiers train/motivate the new men
However the reports coming back from most Russian units are that moral and culture is pretty poor. They have issues with soldier welfare and also with reliable communication, hence the multiple captures of villages. In this environment you have examples of soldiers, faking engagements, claiming to have advanced to places they haven't and killed vast numbers of Ukrainians.
I'm this environment the soldiers who have survived are likely to be the ones who, simulated assaults, abandoned their kit, stole their kit off other units, fell back while the unit they were meant to support got chewed up etc. etc.
On top of that, they are well trained, have set objectives and plans, competent leadership, have decent equipment, food and medical care and support. They are rotated away from the front lines to rest and recuperated.
The Russian soldiers/conscripts on the other hand, are in a war they don't understand, have basic or no equipment, tampons in place of medical care, are dumped in a field with no leadership or plan, no training, just a bunch of uncoordinated Wagner pshycopaths pointing a gun at them and telling them to run headlong into the gunfire over there.
No wonder there is a completely different level of moral between the two sides. If Russia does mobilise another 350k conscripts, they will not fare any better than the last lot unless Russian tactics change dramatically, which they won't.
Evanivitch said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Have a listen to Peter Zeihan on Taiwan. Taiwan is a mountainous island, both massive obstacles to invasion. It could probably develop a nuclear bomb faster than China could accumulate an invasion force.
It's hard to imagine a tougher nut to crack.
Nearly the entire Taiwanese population is on the Western coast, just 100 miles from China and only 200 miles long. It's hard to imagine a tougher nut to crack.
And because of that Taiwan has massive food security issues, being only 35% self sufficient (reference UK imports 46%).
https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/2570
China wouldn't need to use land forces when it's Navy and air force would be sufficiently effective if Taiwan was not in receipt of US/Japan/Australia support.
That's not just from sanctions but because Taiwan blockades the coast of China by its position.
Looking at the % of food imports that goes into Taiwan tells you relatively little. Firstly Taiwan achieves that level of food production with a few % of its workforce. Secondly there are lots of more efficient methods of farming or choices of food types.
As a first world nation Taiwan will consume lots of land intensive foodstuffs. If they assign a larger fraction of their workforce to food production and go vegi instead of feeding foods to animals they will likely have the ability to feed themselves.
Modern economies are incredibly productive, so much so that we have enormous numbers of people in service sector jobs etc. If most economies wanted to shift to war production or survival mode they are incredibly difficult to impede.
There is also the question of will, the economic pain of blockading Taiwan would be much higher for each Taiwanese person, but they are fighting for their lives/nation against a hated invader. Whereas the average Chinese person would gain very little from an invasion but would see a substantial reduction in their quality of life and future prospects. We've seen that public mood can move things in the PRC and this could well be a catalyst for the Chinese Communist party either being overthrown or factions with using it to gain power.
I don't think the PRC will seriously consider it unless it looked like they were about to get removed from office, see Falklands.
With regards to invasion the Chinese cannot seriously invade Taiwan if the Taiwanese want to fight. The army that you would need to subdue millions of people is much larger than they could credibly get across the straight. Even if they established a foothold only small % of attrition per mission and the Chinese loose their helicopters and transport ships in a few days.
TopTrump said:
Ridgemont said:
Ignoring the lack of any evidence to suggest that there is an alliance of Russian allies willing to kick off a global war (there isn’t), I would be interested to know what you think would be the trigger?
If it becomes a religious war is one. Quite possible, especially with IranAre the Chechen mob going to invoke jihad.
Are the BJP going to come flying in to assist their Russian Orthodox comrades?
Stating that a religious war might trigger a wider global conflict is a bit like stating if Russia escalated the conflict by bombing Buenos Aires things might become a bit global. Well it might, but it’s a bit of a non sequitur. How on earth does a war based on Putin’s contrived concept of wider ethnic Russianness lead to a religious conflict?
Iran has drones. That’s about it. Its sizeable armed forces have precisely zero capability for force projection.
Bizarre argument.
"Ukraine: Boris Johnson says Putin threatened him with missile strike"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64397745
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64397745
Evanivitch said:
It certainly will have made them question just how much Western hardware and how effective it could be.
The difference however is that increasingly the Chinese Navy would be capable of an effective blockade of Taiwan which would be somewhat different to the Polish border that is currently the main flow of hardware into Ukraine.
....but then the world could sanction China which imports 80pc of it's food and energy.The difference however is that increasingly the Chinese Navy would be capable of an effective blockade of Taiwan which would be somewhat different to the Polish border that is currently the main flow of hardware into Ukraine.
....and what good would a siege do? People don't roll over to sieges or air power. Ultimately China would have to fight mountain to mountain across Taiwan.
pingu393 said:
Evanivitch said:
China wouldn't need to use land forces when it's Navy and air force would be sufficiently effective if Taiwan was not in receipt of US/Japan/Australia support.
Taiwan wouldn't starve. The US won't let them.Rest of world are heavily reliant on Taiwan, not just for electronics, but also bicycles and related components. It’s not going to be something they would sit back and allow China to take.
Gareth79 said:
"Ukraine: Boris Johnson says Putin threatened him with missile strike"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64397745
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_strategyhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64397745
True to form, the dead cat strategy
I wonder if there are any investigations he is trying to deflect attention from ..
What is there to gain by sharing such discussions, it’s still raw. Surely there are rules in place to stop ex pms repeating what could be sensitive / classified information.
J4CKO said:
Does anyone think China have held back invading Taiwan based on seeing how well Russia's little operation is going and how popular they are as a nation ?
Yes. The more fundamental shock was not just the military aspect. But the withdrawal of businesses from Russia. This type of action would have a greater effect on China at the moment than ever before. You also have the shock that Russia thought it had Europe by the balls with energy and within 9 months this has failed spectacularly. I see more risk of the Chinese invading Russia softly from the east through investment as Russias local government run out of money and men, the ₩ being used as the Ruble becomes tied to war bonds.
I was talking to a Russian pal of mine at the weekend. He made a few interesting points.
He's almost finished his contract here, but he's not intending to head back, dying in some field in the Donbas is not in his lifeplan. He said that the middle classes are starting to feel it. They usually rely on the poor kids to pick up the slack and fill the ranks in the army, but the draft is now taking the their kids and it is creating some dissent.
He made the point that the West needs to climb off the high horse - they were all over Russia when they wanted cheap energy. "f
k what the idiots say on Telegraph" was his view, "but you guys need to know Putin was useful when it suited you", which has a grain of truth in it. The other thing we discussed was that Russian is never and was never, going to win. Holodomor still looms large in the Ukraine national consciousness and there is no way Russia was ever going to overcome a country fighting with the evils visited upon it in almost living memory.
HM-2 said:
I'm fully aware that Iran is almost entirely Muslim. What this doesn't have is any relevance to you're suggestion there's an "alliance of Russian allies ready to kick of a global war", as was so eloquently put by another poster.
It's very clear you have absolutely no idea what you're on about.
You really are a one aren't you.It's very clear you have absolutely no idea what you're on about.
Imagine this. Israel or Ukraine attack Iran for supplying drones (kind of already happening). Other Muslim states don't like that they are being picked on/ attacked/ tag teamed. Escalation happen fast.
The Bosnian war was not that long ago and very nearby.
In answer to the alliance question- I was asked specifically what countries would join them. I then went on to make the point of religion. You seem to always ignore that piece to suit your crusade of arrogance around me daring to offer a differing viewpoint.
Castrol for a knave said:
He made the point that the West needs to climb off the high horse - they were all over Russia when they wanted cheap energy. "fk what the idiots say on Telegraph" was his view, "but you guys need to know Putin was useful when it suited you", which has a grain of truth in it.
It's only a grain though isn't it. The people that were all over Russian energy are either silent now or shilling for a 'negotiated settlement', or doing their best not to send arms to Ukraine. The voices you hear opposing Russia aren't the same people, they're the people that were saying this is mental and to build nuclear power stations decades ago.k what the idiots say on Telegraph" was his view, "but you guys need to know Putin was useful when it suited you", which has a grain of truth in it. Castrol for a knave said:
He made the point that the West needs to climb off the high horse - they were all over Russia when they wanted cheap energy. "fk what the idiots say on Telegraph" was his view, "but you guys need to know Putin was useful when it suited you", which has a grain of truth in it.
It's not much of a point. The west was trading with russia with the hope that it would lead to peace not war. In hindsight this was the wrong move, but it wasn't the wrong thing to do at the time.k what the idiots say on Telegraph" was his view, "but you guys need to know Putin was useful when it suited you", which has a grain of truth in it. Ever since the end of the cold war the western countries have tried to bring russia to join the rest of the world. This war has just singlehandedly removed any chance of that for the forseeable.
Even if russia packs up and goes home, and some trade resumes, then there will be technology sanctions for generations.
TopTrump said:
HM-2 said:
I'm fully aware that Iran is almost entirely Muslim. What this doesn't have is any relevance to you're suggestion there's an "alliance of Russian allies ready to kick of a global war", as was so eloquently put by another poster.
It's very clear you have absolutely no idea what you're on about.
You really are a one aren't you.It's very clear you have absolutely no idea what you're on about.
Imagine this. Israel or Ukraine attack Iran for supplying drones (kind of already happening). Other Muslim states don't like that they are being picked on/ attacked/ tag teamed. Escalation happen fast.
The Bosnian war was not that long ago and very nearby.
In answer to the alliance question- I was asked specifically what countries would join them. I then went on to make the point of religion. You seem to always ignore that piece to suit your crusade of arrogance around me daring to offer a differing viewpoint.
So in your head the islamic world is just one contiguous whole who will declare jihad on everyone else? Are you forgetting the part where most of the muslim world isn't that keen on Iran and have had multiple wars with them?
The only thing stopping the west rolling straight in and demolishing russia is their nuclear weapons. If anyone else joins russia they'll be at a very big risk of getting flattened.
Digga said:
China are knackered without Taiwanese electronics.
Rest of world are heavily reliant on Taiwan, not just for electronics, but also bicycles and related components. It’s not going to be something they would sit back and allow China to take.
The rest of the world (except perhaps South Korea) is equally knackered without Taiwanese electronics (semiconductors) so it's not just China I suppose.Rest of world are heavily reliant on Taiwan, not just for electronics, but also bicycles and related components. It’s not going to be something they would sit back and allow China to take.
But for now, yes there's no doubt the US will have to step in now. And it's also why despite being offered billions to build factories in the US, the likes of TSMC are quite careful to retain building their most critical and advanced stuff in Taiwan. It's rather useful to incentivise some help by Uncle Sam outside of 'doing the right thing' after all......
spookly said:
LOL.
So in your head the islamic world is just one contiguous whole who will declare jihad on everyone else? Are you forgetting the part where most of the muslim world isn't that keen on Iran and have had multiple wars with them?
The only thing stopping the west rolling straight in and demolishing russia is their nuclear weapons. If anyone else joins russia they'll be at a very big risk of getting flattened.
You guys crack on. So in your head the islamic world is just one contiguous whole who will declare jihad on everyone else? Are you forgetting the part where most of the muslim world isn't that keen on Iran and have had multiple wars with them?
The only thing stopping the west rolling straight in and demolishing russia is their nuclear weapons. If anyone else joins russia they'll be at a very big risk of getting flattened.
Grandson of (former) French Pres CDG making comments his family disagree with -
The grandson of Charles de Gaulle has emerged as a supporter of President Putin, embarrassing the family of France's wartime saviour and founder of the modern state.
Pierre de Gaulle, 59, said the United States was responsible for the Ukraine war and Russia was the victim, a view that is fairly widespread in France. "The French are paying a heavy price for a war provoked by the US to turn Europe into a vassal," he told Le Parisien.
From - https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300795204/cha...
The grandson of Charles de Gaulle has emerged as a supporter of President Putin, embarrassing the family of France's wartime saviour and founder of the modern state.
Pierre de Gaulle, 59, said the United States was responsible for the Ukraine war and Russia was the victim, a view that is fairly widespread in France. "The French are paying a heavy price for a war provoked by the US to turn Europe into a vassal," he told Le Parisien.
From - https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300795204/cha...
TopTrump said:
You really are a one aren't you.
Imagine this. Israel or Ukraine attack Iran for supplying drones (kind of already happening). Other Muslim states don't like that they are being picked on/ attacked/ tag teamed. Escalation happen fast.
The Bosnian war was not that long ago and very nearby.
In answer to the alliance question- I was asked specifically what countries would join them. I then went on to make the point of religion. You seem to always ignore that piece to suit your crusade of arrogance around me daring to offer a differing viewpoint.
There are a number of major Muslim states who see Iran as a bigger enemy than Israel & would be more than happy to see Israel or whoever kick lumps out of Iran. The Islamic world is most certainly not a homogenous block.. Imagine this. Israel or Ukraine attack Iran for supplying drones (kind of already happening). Other Muslim states don't like that they are being picked on/ attacked/ tag teamed. Escalation happen fast.
The Bosnian war was not that long ago and very nearby.
In answer to the alliance question- I was asked specifically what countries would join them. I then went on to make the point of religion. You seem to always ignore that piece to suit your crusade of arrogance around me daring to offer a differing viewpoint.
TopTrump said:
Imagine this. Israel or Ukraine attack Iran for supplying drones (kind of already happening). Other Muslim states don't like that they are being picked on/ attacked/ tag teamed. Escalation happen fast.
Please explain to me why (Sunni) states are going to step in to respond to an attack on (Shia) Iran. Israel have been blowing stuff up in Iran for decades now, where's the wider response in the Muslim world?TopTrump said:
You seem to always ignore that piece to suit your crusade of arrogance around me daring to offer a differing viewpoint.
Your viewpoint is nonsensical to anyone with the vaguest understanding of geopolitics and religion. Pointing out your extreme ignorance is not "arrogant", you thinking you're remotely informed on the subject to present a coherent argument is, though. HM-2 said:
Your viewpoint is nonsensical to anyone with the vaguest understanding of geopolitics and religion. Pointing out your extreme ignorance is not "arrogant", you thinking you're remotely informed on the subject to present a coherent argument is, though.
Religion has the shrewdest way of finding itself into conflict, thank goodness you know best. I wish I was as intelligent as you! Using big words like coherent and nonsensical.
By the way I 100% hope that I am wrong. Sometimes it is good to offer up a different viewpoint, you should try it, and while you are there come on down from your high horse.
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