Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

[RichFN2]

J4CKO said:

Are these numbers we keep hearing of 1000 to 2000 dead a day true ?

Looks like another boat hit

https://armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2024/ru...

Edited by J4CKO on Tuesday 21st May 10:14

The numbers are an estimate, and that number includes injured and captured. Ultimately it's how many are removed from frontline duty on thay day.

It's not a completely made up number though, most attacks are captured on a drone and people are literally counting the bodies and and body parts.

If there is a strike on a building then cell phones can give you an idea how many were inside, Russian telegram channels will also give a rough idea on casualty numbers.

[Spare tyre]

Wayoftheflower said:

off_again said:

We in the west complain about declining birth rates and an aging population - Russia has it way worse. They are facing a massive decline in their economy. I havent read this in full, but it makes very worrying reading for Russia:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-russian-eco...

And lets not even entertain the possibility for the Russian Federation to split and they lose even more population? Yikes.

Fascinating how even nearly a decade ago experts could see the population crisis coming and since then Russia has absolutely torpedoed the most optimistic solution projections with this insane war.

It really does seem to show how much the likes of putin only think about themselves, he’ll be long gone either way

[Spare tyre]

Wayoftheflower said:

off_again said:

We in the west complain about declining birth rates and an aging population - Russia has it way worse. They are facing a massive decline in their economy. I havent read this in full, but it makes very worrying reading for Russia:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-russian-eco...

And lets not even entertain the possibility for the Russian Federation to split and they lose even more population? Yikes.

Fascinating how even nearly a decade ago experts could see the population crisis coming and since then Russia has absolutely torpedoed the most optimistic solution projections with this insane war.

It really does seem to show how much the likes of putin only think about themselves, he’ll be long gone either way

[Spare tyre]

If Russia is ground down and eventually the wheels fall off, will the rest of the world see people seeking refuge like the “boat people” are now?

[TGCOTF-dewey]

Spare tyre said:

If Russia is ground down and eventually the wheels fall off, will the rest of the world see people seeking refuge like the “boat people” are now?

Russian brides.com will certainly see a share price boost.

[king arthur]

TGCOTF-dewey said:

Russian brides.com will certainly see a share price boost.

Not sure if I'd want one though. You'd always be wary of drinking the tea she made for you.

[Digga]

Gazprom, on Moscow Stock Exchange now:



"Total net loss for Gazprom Group for 2023 is almost $7 billion.
Net profit in 2022 was around $14 billion."

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/179260779147311516...

[Cheib]

crofty1984 said:

That's my worry. If Russia turn this into a war of attrition meat grinder, how long would Ukraine be able to sustain it? Even at a 3:1 ratio in UKR's favour due to better training/tactics/equipment.
That's why I'm pleased to see the extra support given in terms of equipment but mainly the USA's agreement to let them hit Russian targets across the border with US weapons.

There's a sustainability issue for Russia too....they've been able to sustain the pace of attrition because of the thousands of Soviet era tanks and armoured vehicles they had in storage. I've no idea how long they can keep the current rate of attrition up but I'd imagine in the next 18 to 24 months it becomes an issue for them.

Ukraine's issue is how much they can rely on Europe from the end of this year onwards. Whoever wine the US election there's no guarantee that another $60bil of US funding is coming...European politicians certainly seem to be taking things more seriously but they might have to take things much more seriously from the beginning of next year.

[hidetheelephants]

If Biden wins and Congress turns blue Ukraine can count on support at least until the end of 2026, the defence pork barrel has a big effect and democrats are more or less united on the subject.

[blueST]

BikeBikeBIke said:

J4CKO said:

Are these numbers we keep hearing of 1000 to 2000 dead a day true ?

Dubious - someone just divided an estimate of casualties by a number of days.

We can be pretty sure, whatever the number, it's 'too many'.

Those numbers are losses, killed, injured and no longer in the fight, captured etc. It continually gets misreported as the death toll.

[off_again]

blueST said:

BikeBikeBIke said:

J4CKO said:

Are these numbers we keep hearing of 1000 to 2000 dead a day true ?

Dubious - someone just divided an estimate of casualties by a number of days.

We can be pretty sure, whatever the number, it's 'too many'.

Those numbers are losses, killed, injured and no longer in the fight, captured etc. It continually gets misreported as the death toll.

Total numbers that get reported seem to be corroborated by western intelligence. The Norwegian, US and UK intelligence services have indicated that the total loss (wounded and killed) is broadly accurate. Ukraine will always over report, but the trend line seems to be accurate though. The increase in the numbers reported by Ukraine do fall in line with the massed WW1 style attacks that the Russians seem to like - and then backed up with satellite images.

But yes, its too many and utterly pointless. I still struggle to think that Putler actually authorized this and still keeps it going. He's dooming Russia but he doesnt care.

[AmyRichardson]

Iamnotkloot said:

I’d argue Operation Bagration was a successful huge fronted assault by the Russians. However, the current lot certainly aren’t capable of this again.
https://the-past.com/feature/operation-bagration/#...

My thoughts ref. a "rippling" series of positional fights go to the Hundred Days.

It's not a terrible approach if you have enough resources to maintain the action but not the overwhelming preponderance of strength and operational aptitude required to undertake something more expansive. That and a reptilian attitude to casualties.

[asfault]

Has anyone had an actual word with putin and said
"hey dhead" Russia was becoming part of the wider world,
you got mcdonalds etc
and western tech into your country
, you had an f1 race,
your gas company was a major sponsor of the champions league
. Westeners were actually holidaying to Russia
Your peoples standard of living was starting to go up
and no one has or had any interest in invading your
Whats the fking deal man?

[borcy]

asfault said:

Has anyone had an actual word with putin and said
"hey dhead" Russia was becoming part of the wider world,
you got mcdonalds etc
and western tech into your country
, you had an f1 race,
your gas company was a major sponsor of the champions league
. Westeners were actually holidaying to Russia
Your peoples standard of living was starting to go up
and no one has or had any interest in invading your
Whats the fking deal man?

He got rid of anyone to challenge him a couple of years ago. Probably during his covid isolation/wibble phase.

[off_again]

borcy said:

asfault said:

Has anyone had an actual word with putin and said
"hey dhead" Russia was becoming part of the wider world,
you got mcdonalds etc
and western tech into your country
, you had an f1 race,
your gas company was a major sponsor of the champions league
. Westeners were actually holidaying to Russia
Your peoples standard of living was starting to go up
and no one has or had any interest in invading your
Whats the fking deal man?

He got rid of anyone to challenge him a couple of years ago. Probably during his covid isolation/wibble phase.

He lined up what is now Russia a long time ago. The whole Covid thing just exacerbated the isolationist attitude and paranoia that he had. He's been bumping off people, sending others to the gulags and quietly allowing his pals to steal billions and take it out of the country to live wonderous lives. And lets not forget the constant and long term efforts to undermine the west.

[pingu393]

Digga said:

Gazprom, on Moscow Stock Exchange now:



"Total net loss for Gazprom Group for 2023 is almost $7 billion.
Net profit in 2022 was around $14 billion."

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/179260779147311516...

GazProm was told not to issue any dividends this year. That is probably the final straw for investors, and they've bailed out.

[isaldiri]

Gazprom is majority owner by the state anyway and iirc a reasonable chunk of ownership resides in ADRs which are frozen and not tradeable so how much the stock price falls or otherwise might not be quite as significant as otherwise with a 'normal' energy company.

[Oliver Hardy]

I have come across a couple of reports that Russia has decides to change maritime border with Lithuania, Finland in Baltic Sea ???

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-unilaterally-de...

[TGCOTF-dewey]

Lithuania and Finland protest, send warships, Putin says Told you so... NATO are aggressors.

It's a clever move by Putin to improve standing back home.

Utterly sick of world leaders who have zero interest in creating a better society for the populations they head.

[Digga]

isaldiri said:

Gazprom is majority owner by the state anyway and iirc a reasonable chunk of ownership resides in ADRs which are frozen and not tradeable so how much the stock price falls or otherwise might not be quite as significant as otherwise with a 'normal' energy company.

It's just one small, but interesting indicator though, in the vast imponderable slew of data that you consider when wondering "how long can they go on for?"

The nation is, basically, eating itself.