Net migration - highest ever it's been
Discussion
milesgiles said:
When I say data I mean : growth per capita. Sovereign debt. Budget deficit. Cost of living. Rent and mortgage costs. Welfare spending. Waiting lists. Traffic. Class sizes. Crime. Asylum hotels. I could go on..
EVERYTHING I can think of has got worse in the last twenty years. I can post graphs for all of them but it would make no difference to you because you are too far down the rabbit hole.
And where is the evidence to show that things getting worse is due to immigration? EVERYTHING I can think of has got worse in the last twenty years. I can post graphs for all of them but it would make no difference to you because you are too far down the rabbit hole.
The biggest increase in spending over the last 20 years has been on health, social care and pensions, almost exclusively on British Baby Boomers! If you want to know where the money has gone, then look at the current crop of OAPs!
milesgiles said:
E63eeeeee... said:
milesgiles said:
Condi said:
What data? The data is very clear - 95% of people arriving do so legally and with a visa, disembarking from a plane or ship and passing Border Force staff along the way.
As for how immigration has benefitted us - international students bring billions of Pounds per year into the country, other people bring skilled workers, other people are unskilled yet doing important jobs such as care workers. The 95% of people arriving legally do not get access to most benefits for the first few years, pay a surcharge to use the NHS, and pay taxes from day 1.
Cherry pickingAs for how immigration has benefitted us - international students bring billions of Pounds per year into the country, other people bring skilled workers, other people are unskilled yet doing important jobs such as care workers. The 95% of people arriving legally do not get access to most benefits for the first few years, pay a surcharge to use the NHS, and pay taxes from day 1.
If I thought the vast majority of international students were here on genuine three year courses and then went home (unless extremely well qualified and likely to earn a very high salary quickly) then I’d agree on student’s.
I don’t believe that.
What happens to the price of labour when you import cheap labour? Can you see the problem?
Immigration is the ultimate in virtue signaling. Yes, we can see almost none of it has been even slightly beneficial, but I’m voting for it anyway because it makes me nicer than you.
And if you aren’t voting Reform, you are voting for yet more net immigration
EVERYTHING I can think of has got worse in the last twenty years. I can post graphs for all of them but it would make no difference to you because you are too far down the rabbit hole.
Edited by milesgiles on Friday 29th November 22:10
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-pe...
Budget deficit, UK debt, cost of living have all gone up but immigration has reduced the increase not caused it. Rent and house prices have increased a lot. It can be claimed this is caused by immigration, but other countries with high level of EU immigration, France, Germany, did not see similar rises. Even if immigration was part of the cause the government controls planning, but NIMBY voters meant it allowed building to fall. Do you mean Welfare spending on things such as incapacity benefits, disability, attendance allowance, pension credits, WFA, and TV licence for the over 75s, how's that been effected by imigration? Waiting list? You maybe surprised to learn immigrants are generally young and healthy, so maybe this is due to the aging UK population. Traffic, maybe but again the government can sort that. Class sizes, well maybe but not in the way you think. Pre EU immigration the low UK birth rate meant school numbers where falling and schools would have been closing. The immigration just filled the gaps. Crime no evidence, except Albanians. Asylum account for about 5% of immigration, and the hotels reflect the government slowing processing.
In 2004 the UK was looking down the barrel of a very live gun. Low and falling birth rates, increased life expectancy, meant an aging population with greater pension and healthcare costs and less and less people to pay for it. EU immigration kicked this massive problem 30 years down the line.
Oddly enough my rabbit hole is full of data and research!!
milesgiles said:
This healthcare ‘quick fix’ has been with us for twenty years. It will NEVER end if we allow ever more workers in from poorer countries. The low cost easy option will always win out in that and every other sector
But that is manifestly untrue obviously. How are you able to attribute the failings of the NHS to immigrants? I can't even begin to see the logic as to how that could be done?
milesgiles said:
EVERYTHING I can think of has got worse in the last twenty years. I can post graphs for all of them but it would make no difference to you because you are too far down the rabbit hole.
Let's say this statement is correct. Can you explain how you attribute the cause of each problem to immigration?Are you actually able to lay out a solid reasoning?
We have issues with immigration but I'm not understanding how some people are using these issues to explain problematic structural issues that are clearly not a result of migration.
What about taking the 5 largest payments each month from your gross salary and explaining why each one is the size that it is?
I do think that too many people have been lead down the garden path by people seeking to swerve the blame for all the failings.
popeyewhite said:
DonkeyApple said:
We have issues with immigration but I'm not understanding how some people are using these issues to explain problematic structural issues that are clearly not a result of migration.
Hmm considered you might be wrong ever?List your 5 largest monthly costs a lay out the reasoning for the role of migration in these costs as primary drivers.
What is really important is that you stop to consider who has lead you down your path and what they are looking to take from you.
DonkeyApple said:
popeyewhite said:
DonkeyApple said:
We have issues with immigration but I'm not understanding how some people are using these issues to explain problematic structural issues that are clearly not a result of migration.
Hmm considered you might be wrong ever?List your 5 largest monthly costs a lay out the reasoning for the role of migration in these costs as primary drivers.
What is really important is that you stop to consider who has lead you down your path and what they are looking to take from you.
DonkeyApple said:
milesgiles said:
EVERYTHING I can think of has got worse in the last twenty years. I can post graphs for all of them but it would make no difference to you because you are too far down the rabbit hole.
Let's say this statement is correct. Can you explain how you attribute the cause of each problem to immigration?Are you actually able to lay out a solid reasoning?
We have issues with immigration but I'm not understanding how some people are using these issues to explain problematic structural issues that are clearly not a result of migration.
What about taking the 5 largest payments each month from your gross salary and explaining why each one is the size that it is?
I do think that too many people have been lead down the garden path by people seeking to swerve the blame for all the failings.
It is literally impossible to use the statistics to demonstrate anything meaningful about the net effects of our migration policy. The data is so unreliable it is dangerous.
Now.. when the data is wrong, the anecdotes become more powerful, and how does this look in our country?
Waiting lists are longer than ever.
Class sizes are larger than ever.
Rental and purchase prices relative to average income is worse than ever.
These are your interactions with the state and they have degraded over the past 20 years and will continue to degrade over the next 20 years on the current trajectory.
How do you solve this? Well for me I feel it is relatively straightforward. I think I'd call is "The Great Pause", each region will have absolute autonomy on the number of migrants they want to bring in, but only if their region can pass tests on class sizes, GP waiting times, ambulance response times, crime detection and successful prosecution.
Have a large company in your city that wants to bring in an extra 500 workers? Great, they have to contribute to the local state to allow a growth in the services required to serve the extra demand.
Where we are now is we have a privileged class, using shoddy data to form "informed" opinions around the net benefits of the migration policy. They're insulated from the actual effects due to private schools, BUPA, home ownership.
Next there is the whole "lazy Brits" argument. This one to me is also very simple. The social contract is broken in this country. Work hard and you can't get on. So, don't bother, there is no reason, don't work hard, don't raise families, don't contribute to society. This is awful, generational and requires the state to actually show some backbone for its working aged people.
Again, resolution is relatively straightforward. Move up all income tax rates by ~20k, make income tax hourly rate dependent not annual salary. Reward people who put in 60 hours a week but on a fixed salary. Make work pay for the workers. Encourage commuting and on-site working by allowing your commuting costs to be tax deductible (ala Germany).
However none of the above can be reasoned with people like you because you believe the data which is known to be massively wrong.
John145 said:
DonkeyApple said:
milesgiles said:
EVERYTHING I can think of has got worse in the last twenty years. I can post graphs for all of them but it would make no difference to you because you are too far down the rabbit hole.
Let's say this statement is correct. Can you explain how you attribute the cause of each problem to immigration?Are you actually able to lay out a solid reasoning?
We have issues with immigration but I'm not understanding how some people are using these issues to explain problematic structural issues that are clearly not a result of migration.
What about taking the 5 largest payments each month from your gross salary and explaining why each one is the size that it is?
I do think that too many people have been lead down the garden path by people seeking to swerve the blame for all the failings.
It is literally impossible to use the statistics to demonstrate anything meaningful about the net effects of our migration policy. The data is so unreliable it is dangerous.
Now.. when the data is wrong, the anecdotes become more powerful, and how does this look in our country?
Waiting lists are longer than ever.
Class sizes are larger than ever.
Rental and purchase prices relative to average income is worse than ever.
These are your interactions with the state and they have degraded over the past 20 years and will continue to degrade over the next 20 years on the current trajectory.
How do you solve this? Well for me I feel it is relatively straightforward. I think I'd call is "The Great Pause", each region will have absolute autonomy on the number of migrants they want to bring in, but only if their region can pass tests on class sizes, GP waiting times, ambulance response times, crime detection and successful prosecution.
Have a large company in your city that wants to bring in an extra 500 workers? Great, they have to contribute to the local state to allow a growth in the services required to serve the extra demand.
Where we are now is we have a privileged class, using shoddy data to form "informed" opinions around the net benefits of the migration policy. They're insulated from the actual effects due to private schools, BUPA, home ownership.
Next there is the whole "lazy Brits" argument. This one to me is also very simple. The social contract is broken in this country. Work hard and you can't get on. So, don't bother, there is no reason, don't work hard, don't raise families, don't contribute to society. This is awful, generational and requires the state to actually show some backbone for its working aged people.
Again, resolution is relatively straightforward. Move up all income tax rates by ~20k, make income tax hourly rate dependent not annual salary. Reward people who put in 60 hours a week but on a fixed salary. Make work pay for the workers. Encourage commuting and on-site working by allowing your commuting costs to be tax deductible (ala Germany).
However none of the above can be reasoned with people like you because you believe the data which is known to be massively wrong.
There are two debates here and they are wholly separate but people conflate them.
On the one hand we have the national debate as to how much immigration the country needs and then within that, where would we, as the people, wish this labour to be sourced from.
The U.K. very obviously requires migration but we have a right to say where it comes from and what form it takes. We also have a right to determine its rate.
But the other argument is nothing to do with t hat it is an argument whereby people stand up and state very clearly that they have less money and the clear reason is immigrants.
That second part is what I am addressing.
I am merely saying, prove your workings and to do so directly using one's own direct date.
Take the five most expansive monthly draws on one's gross income and for each one explain very clearly why immigration is the primary driver of that cost burden.
If someone cannot actually do that then it is absolutely imperative that they stop immediately and start to establish who it was that told them to think the way that they were, what has been taken from them and what that third party is looking to achieve from taking it from you.
This is nothing more difficult that each person taking a step back from devout beliefs and looking precisely at their own financial data set and the drivers behind those costs.
It's nothing at all to do with whether immigration is good/bad, too much/too little, from the right or wrong places, demographics, classes etc.
It is simply an exercise in personal clarity.
With each of those 5 costs we can find the 'immigrant' element because it genuinely exists and is there. But that's the point. That isn't the important bit. That's not where you stop. It's not ever where anyone should ever stop as that is what makes people slaves to others. What is important is to establish its relevance, it's weighting, it's importance as a key driver and whether it actually is and if it isn't why someone lied to you and owns you.
John145 said:
DonkeyApple said:
milesgiles said:
EVERYTHING I can think of has got worse in the last twenty years. I can post graphs for all of them but it would make no difference to you because you are too far down the rabbit hole.
Let's say this statement is correct. Can you explain how you attribute the cause of each problem to immigration?Are you actually able to lay out a solid reasoning?
We have issues with immigration but I'm not understanding how some people are using these issues to explain problematic structural issues that are clearly not a result of migration.
What about taking the 5 largest payments each month from your gross salary and explaining why each one is the size that it is?
I do think that too many people have been lead down the garden path by people seeking to swerve the blame for all the failings.
It is literally impossible to use the statistics to demonstrate anything meaningful about the net effects of our migration policy. The data is so unreliable it is dangerous.
Now.. when the data is wrong, the anecdotes become more powerful, and how does this look in our country?
Waiting lists are longer than ever.
Class sizes are larger than ever.
Rental and purchase prices relative to average income is worse than ever.
These are your interactions with the state and they have degraded over the past 20 years and will continue to degrade over the next 20 years on the current trajectory.
How do you solve this? Well for me I feel it is relatively straightforward. I think I'd call is "The Great Pause", each region will have absolute autonomy on the number of migrants they want to bring in, but only if their region can pass tests on class sizes, GP waiting times, ambulance response times, crime detection and successful prosecution.
Have a large company in your city that wants to bring in an extra 500 workers? Great, they have to contribute to the local state to allow a growth in the services required to serve the extra demand.
Where we are now is we have a privileged class, using shoddy data to form "informed" opinions around the net benefits of the migration policy. They're insulated from the actual effects due to private schools, BUPA, home ownership.
Next there is the whole "lazy Brits" argument. This one to me is also very simple. The social contract is broken in this country. Work hard and you can't get on. So, don't bother, there is no reason, don't work hard, don't raise families, don't contribute to society. This is awful, generational and requires the state to actually show some backbone for its working aged people.
Again, resolution is relatively straightforward. Move up all income tax rates by ~20k, make income tax hourly rate dependent not annual salary. Reward people who put in 60 hours a week but on a fixed salary. Make work pay for the workers. Encourage commuting and on-site working by allowing your commuting costs to be tax deductible (ala Germany).
However none of the above can be reasoned with people like you because you believe the data which is known to be massively wrong.
popeyewhite said:
DonkeyApple said:
popeyewhite said:
DonkeyApple said:
We have issues with immigration but I'm not understanding how some people are using these issues to explain problematic structural issues that are clearly not a result of migration.
Hmm considered you might be wrong ever?List your 5 largest monthly costs a lay out the reasoning for the role of migration in these costs as primary drivers.
What is really important is that you stop to consider who has lead you down your path and what they are looking to take from you.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
Life expectancy may have peaked but it's still about 80 years.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
Without immigration it's likely the UK population will start to decline but not in a good way. The low birth rate will mean the numbers working and helping to pay for the pensions and healthcare of the elder will decline far faster than those on the pensions.
The current system to deal with this is immigration and high taxes.
What would you do. The options are much higher taxes or reduce the cost of the elderly. Your choice.
swisstoni said:
We don’t appear to even bother to pursue visa overstayers.
Quite a big issue considering the large numbers of visas granted over the past couple of years.
That's a valid issue. It highlights the cost and complexity of finding people. Which in turn is an extremely healthy sign that the U.K. isn't yet a police state where we are all tracked a monitored. Quite a big issue considering the large numbers of visas granted over the past couple of years.
The solution is to recognise the back end problem and to focus on changes to the front end system to mitigate it.
But it should absolutely remain a considerable problem in the U.K. for the state to find people and we should be very, very wary of those who seek to change that and use immigrants as the battle cry to remove more of our freedoms.
Condi said:
And where is the evidence to show that things getting worse is due to immigration?
The biggest increase in spending over the last 20 years has been on health, social care and pensions, almost exclusively on British Baby Boomers! If you want to know where the money has gone, then look at the current crop of OAPs!
And masked for 20 years by deregulating lending so everyone just went shopping because they were suddenly rich. The biggest increase in spending over the last 20 years has been on health, social care and pensions, almost exclusively on British Baby Boomers! If you want to know where the money has gone, then look at the current crop of OAPs!
Hardly a surprise that when the shopping tokens stopped flowing the inherent failures bubbled back to the top.
People need to get back to understanding what money is and how the lending of it was used for the last 25 years to allow them to self delude.
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