Net migration - highest ever it's been

Net migration - highest ever it's been

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E63eeeeee...

4,612 posts

57 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
milesgiles said:
E63eeeeee... said:
milesgiles said:
Condi said:
What data? The data is very clear - 95% of people arriving do so legally and with a visa, disembarking from a plane or ship and passing Border Force staff along the way.

As for how immigration has benefitted us - international students bring billions of Pounds per year into the country, other people bring skilled workers, other people are unskilled yet doing important jobs such as care workers. The 95% of people arriving legally do not get access to most benefits for the first few years, pay a surcharge to use the NHS, and pay taxes from day 1.
Cherry picking

If I thought the vast majority of international students were here on genuine three year courses and then went home (unless extremely well qualified and likely to earn a very high salary quickly) then I’d agree on student’s.

I don’t believe that.

What happens to the price of labour when you import cheap labour? Can you see the problem?

Immigration is the ultimate in virtue signaling. Yes, we can see almost none of it has been even slightly beneficial, but I’m voting for it anyway because it makes me nicer than you.

And if you aren’t voting Reform, you are voting for yet more net immigration
Er, cherry picking is not an argument you can make when you previously claimed that "all the data is against it". If you were right, there'd be nothing to cherry pick. Plenty of data supports that there are benefits to immigration and that it's complicated. People making ludicrous sweeping statements like yours do nothing for the discussion. The rest of your post is nonsense.
When I say data I mean : growth per capita. Sovereign debt. Budget deficit. Cost of living. Rent and mortgage costs. Welfare spending. Waiting lists. Traffic. Class sizes. Crime. Asylum hotels. I could go on..

EVERYTHING I can think of has got worse in the last twenty years. I can post graphs for all of them but it would make no difference to you because you are too far down the rabbit hole.




Edited by milesgiles on Friday 29th November 22:10
Do post graphs, as long as they actually cover the full 20 years. Put actual immigration rates on them too. Lots of those things got better until 2008-2010. Then they got worse. I don't think it was immigration that caused the inflection, but if it was your graphs should show it very clearly.

E63eeeeee...

4,612 posts

57 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
popeyewhite said:
E63eeeeee... said:
Apologies, will be pithier.
Reasonable and polite not possible then?
It's never good enough, is it? You’ll want the moon on a stick next.

swisstoni

18,302 posts

287 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
swisstoni said:
We don’t appear to even bother to pursue visa overstayers.
Quite a big issue considering the large numbers of visas granted over the past couple of years.
That's a valid issue. It highlights the cost and complexity of finding people. Which in turn is an extremely healthy sign that the U.K. isn't yet a police state where we are all tracked a monitored.

The solution is to recognise the back end problem and to focus on changes to the front end system to mitigate it.

But it should absolutely remain a considerable problem in the U.K. for the state to find people and we should be very, very wary of those who seek to change that and use immigrants as the battle cry to remove more of our freedoms.
I don’t think ID cards would be a backward step.
If they helped prevent the country being robbed blind by people who simply don’t play nice with our lovely freedoms.

E63eeeeee...

4,612 posts

57 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
Longy00000 said:
Are you not validating his point there?
If we had visa quotas you would know how many issued but currently we have no representative logs to use as the current systems are so disparate
I can't tell if this is gibberish or just wrong. We know exactly how many visas are issued and how many are used, we also have a pretty good idea whether people have left at the end of their visas. Job vacancies and university places are the main constraint on overall numbers.

E63eeeeee...

4,612 posts

57 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
swisstoni said:
DonkeyApple said:
swisstoni said:
We don’t appear to even bother to pursue visa overstayers.
Quite a big issue considering the large numbers of visas granted over the past couple of years.
That's a valid issue. It highlights the cost and complexity of finding people. Which in turn is an extremely healthy sign that the U.K. isn't yet a police state where we are all tracked a monitored.

The solution is to recognise the back end problem and to focus on changes to the front end system to mitigate it.

But it should absolutely remain a considerable problem in the U.K. for the state to find people and we should be very, very wary of those who seek to change that and use immigrants as the battle cry to remove more of our freedoms.
I don’t think ID cards would be a backward step.
If they helped prevent the country being robbed blind by people who simply don’t play nice with our lovely freedoms.
Immigrants in the UK have had ID cards for over 15 years.

Sheets Tabuer

19,662 posts

223 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
They definitely need to get to grips with this or the surge to parties that will deal with it is inevitable. It's not only here though, I've just come back from Germany where I've only ever experienced a warm and welcoming people but was shocked this time to see at least two individuals going full Adolf overt the issue there.

Digga

41,447 posts

291 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
One of the fundamental issues I have with the “highest ever” narrative is that since illegals are, by definition, entering beneath the radar, it’s simply not possible, let alone rational to take overall numbers too literally.

There are lots of things that can and should have been done, post Brexit, to get better control, but essentially are borders are porous right now.

Most of the numbers of official migrants are here for the right reasons. We just need a system that weeds out he criminal and terrorist elements.

DonkeyApple

59,394 posts

177 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
fido said:
911Spanker said:
Why are UK workers not applying for and doing these jobs?
1. pay 2. overqualified 3. can’t compete with migrants from poorer EU/non-EU countries .. some possible reasons
Fundamentally it boils down to housing cost. One party wishes to live as if they are in a developed nation and the other party is willing to live as if they're still in a developing nation.

If the cost of housing hadn't been allowed to go as far as it has then more people would be available for the lower paid roles.

It's why people need to look at their own 5 largest monthly costs before they can begin seeing where the issue is. Until then they are trapped in the sales pitch that it's a wage and immigrant problem which can be solve by paying more and not importing as many immigrants. Obviously, the more you pay the more immigrants you need and the more rents increase and so on and so on.

So why are some people so keen to indoctrinate the masses that it is a wage and immigrant issue when it manifestly isn't? What are those people gaining from their actions? wink

DonkeyApple

59,394 posts

177 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
swisstoni said:
DonkeyApple said:
swisstoni said:
We don’t appear to even bother to pursue visa overstayers.
Quite a big issue considering the large numbers of visas granted over the past couple of years.
That's a valid issue. It highlights the cost and complexity of finding people. Which in turn is an extremely healthy sign that the U.K. isn't yet a police state where we are all tracked a monitored.

The solution is to recognise the back end problem and to focus on changes to the front end system to mitigate it.

But it should absolutely remain a considerable problem in the U.K. for the state to find people and we should be very, very wary of those who seek to change that and use immigrants as the battle cry to remove more of our freedoms.
I don’t think ID cards would be a backward step.
If they helped prevent the country being robbed blind by people who simply don’t play nice with our lovely freedoms.
It would be horrendous as would road pricing as that is the tracking of movement.

Work on the front end and the problems of the back end decline.

And ask yourself why don't some people want the front end changed for the better of the people but instead want more tracking, more control, more taxation and seek to blame other issues? wink

valiant

11,415 posts

168 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
Digga said:
.

Most of the numbers of official migrants are here for the right reasons. We just need a system that weeds out he criminal and terrorist elements.
Need to follow the US example when filling out an ESTA,

“Have you ever engaged in terrorist activity?”

Can’t see any flaws in their approach…

John145

2,492 posts

164 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
oyster said:
You've even managed to shoehorn a rant against working from home in there - that's pretty impressive.
Do you work with anyone new into the workforce? I'm working with new graduate intakes into engineering. Everyone single one of them who are motivated, want to get on, want to learn and want to be impactful are onsite every day they can. They hate work from home because they cannot learn.

In my experience the roles where work from home is great are also the first roles that can be replaced with AI.

Within my own team work from home for a couple of the team members is directly disengaging them. When challenged (I only this year took on management responsibility for them), bringing them onsite had them engaged, impactful and made them high performing. Even though their role is very PC based (simulation), being onsite engages, motivates and shares knowledge.

JagLover

43,868 posts

243 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
John145 said:
Do you work with anyone new into the workforce? I'm working with new graduate intakes into engineering. Everyone single one of them who are motivated, want to get on, want to learn and want to be impactful are onsite every day they can. They hate work from home because they cannot learn.

In my experience the roles where work from home is great are also the first roles that can be replaced with AI.
Perhaps in engineering, not necessarily the case in other professions where it is often the more senior roles best suited to home working.

John145

2,492 posts

164 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
JagLover said:
John145 said:
Do you work with anyone new into the workforce? I'm working with new graduate intakes into engineering. Everyone single one of them who are motivated, want to get on, want to learn and want to be impactful are onsite every day they can. They hate work from home because they cannot learn.

In my experience the roles where work from home is great are also the first roles that can be replaced with AI.
Perhaps in engineering, not necessarily the case in other professions where it is often the more senior roles best suited to home working.
What are your thoughts on these roles being replace by AI?

JagLover

43,868 posts

243 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
John145 said:
What are your thoughts on these roles being replace by AI?
Accountancy is in a process of automation that has been going on as long as I have been working within it. What tends to happen though is that it is a tool to assist experienced workers and the more junior roles go. A pyramid becomes a flatter structure. Maybe we will all be replaced eventually but still a long way off.

John145

2,492 posts

164 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
...
The U.K. very obviously requires migration but we have a right to say where it comes from and what form it takes. We also have a right to determine its rate.

But the other argument is nothing to do with t hat it is an argument whereby people stand up and state very clearly that they have less money and the clear reason is immigrants.

...
So you make two points with lots of words.

I disagree with the first point in its entirety. Migration is a sticking plaster for the points I raise earlier, a state that cannot engage its workforce.

The second is to blame individuals for how the state mismanages the nation. Just work harder and be more careful with your money and you'll be fine. When infact no you won't be. If you need an ambulance, good luck, get yourself to A&E. If you have a crime committed against you, don't even both reporting it nothing will happen. If you want to drive your car, hope you don't have fancy low profile tyres they aren't going to last long. Oh also, can we take 50% of what you make, also you went to Uni, that'll be another 9% for the rest of your life. kthx bye. This does not a motivated workforce make.

John145

2,492 posts

164 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
JagLover said:
John145 said:
What are your thoughts on these roles being replace by AI?
Accountancy is in a process of automation that has been going on as long as I have been working within it. What tends to happen though is that it is a tool to assist experienced workers and the more junior roles go. A pyramid becomes a flatter structure. Maybe we will all be replaced eventually but still a long way off.
I think you're going to be surprised. Accountancy in its entirety is easy for AI to replace, its very simple working with numbers to very clearly defined rules and processes. But anyway, long term planning is not a consideration for the workforce or HR departments, just looking at the next bonus payment criteria...

popeyewhite

21,502 posts

128 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
E63eeeeee... said:
popeyewhite said:
E63eeeeee... said:
Apologies, will be pithier.
Reasonable and polite not possible then?
It's never good enough, is it? You’ll want the moon on a stick next.
Is that related to your posting style?

Carl_VivaEspana

13,244 posts

270 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
EU immigration kicked this massive problem 30 years down the line.
Sorry MrrT got to pull you up on this one, if there's 5.8 million on out of work benefits and the country is spending 125bn a year more than it should be, demographics is not actually a problem.

The problem is creating a balanced society that is not run like a 1 trillion Ponzi scheme where you have a minority of wealthy people being supported and served by a low paid immigrant underclass.




DonkeyApple

59,394 posts

177 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
John145 said:
DonkeyApple said:
...
The U.K. very obviously requires migration but we have a right to say where it comes from and what form it takes. We also have a right to determine its rate.

But the other argument is nothing to do with t hat it is an argument whereby people stand up and state very clearly that they have less money and the clear reason is immigrants.

...
So you make two points with lots of words.

I disagree with the first point in its entirety. Migration is a sticking plaster for the points I raise earlier, a state that cannot engage its workforce.

The second is to blame individuals for how the state mismanages the nation. Just work harder and be more careful with your money and you'll be fine. When infact no you won't be. If you need an ambulance, good luck, get yourself to A&E. If you have a crime committed against you, don't even both reporting it nothing will happen. If you want to drive your car, hope you don't have fancy low profile tyres they aren't going to last long. Oh also, can we take 50% of what you make, also you went to Uni, that'll be another 9% for the rest of your life. kthx bye. This does not a motivated workforce make.
Re first point, we have a structural system where the workers pay for the retired and the non working so very clearly with the significantly contracting working population since the turn of the century as the Boomer bulge move into retirement importing labour has been essential.

As for your second part, what's that got to do with Jonny Foreigner? You can't fix problems when you start looking in the wrong places.

So, what are your 5 largest monthly costs and what are the main drivers of those being too high?

Ian Geary

4,746 posts

200 months

Saturday 30th November
quotequote all
E63eeeeee... said:
Immigrants in the UK have had ID cards for over 15 years.
A mate of mine is moving full time to Spain after marrying his Spanish fiancée and living there on/off for 15 years.

He's slightly left of centre, and Id cards came up in conversation.

The point is not that we "have" ID cards. I have a "National Record of Achievement" folder somewhere, along with a national insurance card, passport, driving licence, health card, 2 library cards and a clubcard.

The point is that in Spain and other places, proving your ID is a fundamental part of any transaction with the state:

Doctors appointment? ID
Buying train tickets? ID

So many mundane things, not just rare events like opening a Bank account or buying a house.

The Spanish are fine with this, yet the UK has a big meltdown if anyone dares suggest such a thing.

So when people talk about id cards, they are talking about the ability (or not) of people to live outside the system, in the black economy (cash in hand etc) and not just about a piece of laminated plastic.


In my mate's opinion it is the id card being front and centre of life that makes it hard for illegal migrants to remain in Spain, and what the UK should be doing if it was serious about getting a grip on migration. To repeat, he is not a Remain frother, and as he is about to become a migrant himself I guess he realises the importance of doing it properly.


The elephant in the dingy is of course the UK public sector is in no way capable of pivoting itself to make ID cards a fundamental part of transacting with them.

Though I imagine the private sector would do it's absolute best to gouge as much cash as possible from the public sector whilst it flopped around. It would be a rerun of the electronic medical record disaster.

(I recall after Brexit a system was being built for EU nationals to register. The government flip flopped and said a charge wouldn't be required. Yet the IT bods had made the payment of a fee fundamental to the entire architecture of the system, and it had to be rebuilt from scratch. That was one transaction.

My council bought a business system from the industry leading private sector company. After a year it can't even produce compliant bacs files and still has absolutely no capacity for control reporting despite this being an integral need.

Nope - there is no way the UK could pivot to making ID cards and actual functioning part of understanding entitlement to public services, so the doubters are safe imo)