Crypto Currency Thread

[Guvernator]

Behemoth said:

No, the system balances itself. The halvings have happened a number of times already. It's generally priced in, except for those unawares.

So when you say it's priced in, the price has to increase sharply, days/weeks before the day to compensate for the extra cost of mining each bitcoin. Does that happen? Surely that's a pretty easy way to make a few bob?

[Behemoth]

Guvernator said:

So when you say it's priced in, the price has to increase sharply, days/weeks before the day to compensate for the extra cost of mining each bitcoin. Does that happen? Surely that's a pretty easy way to make a few bob?

It's priced in because bitcoin's monetary policy is completely predictable. The miners know what's going to happen.

[Guvernator]

Behemoth said:

It's priced in because bitcoin's monetary policy is completely predictable. The miners know what's going to happen.

That's a clever way of not really answering the question. Does the price go up because of this? Usually if something takes more effort to make, it's price has to go up. Imagine a real world good where the price to produce it doubled over night. If it doesn't go up, why not?

If it does, it seems like a very easy way to make a killing which sounds a bit dodgy to me too,.

[NickCQ]

Guvernator said:

That's a clever way of not really answering the question. Does the price go up because of this? Usually if something takes more effort to make, it's price has to go up. Imagine a real world good where the price to produce it doubled over night. If it doesn't go up, why not?

If it does, it seems like a very easy way to make a killing which sounds a bit dodgy to me too,.

Remember that miners also get paid transaction fees - between the price of the coin and the price per transaction an equilibrium will be found.

There is an interesting point here though, which is that the whole BTC ecosystem leaks fiat by nature (miners' power bills).
You need a steady supply of transactions or new punters buying coins to keep it afloat.

[Behemoth]

Guvernator said:

That's a clever way of not really answering the question. Does the price go up because of this? Usually if something takes more effort to make, it's price has to go up. Imagine a real world good where the price to produce it doubled over night. If it doesn't go up, why not?

If it does, it seems like a very easy way to make a killing which sounds a bit dodgy to me too,.

Well the price has certainly gone up over the years. The halving events are known about. So you'd expect the pricing-in to be spread out, except for those speculators that are left unawares and buy the news. And miners left unawares who find themselves without a viable business model. There are far fewer of the latter these days, since mining is rather more professional than previously. And you'd think there are fewer of the former, but we all know mkts are irrational.

Lots of people have made efforts to model all this and come up with valuations, this is one of the better ones from a quant who focused on stock to flow and very much focuses on scarcity & the halvings: https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoi...

Whether you believe those predictions or not, it's clear that different speculators have very different valuations. That's where the opportunity is, rather than the halving event per se.

By the way, tx fees don't (yet) make up much of miner income per block. It averages $40 per block iirc. Fees will take over once halvings have depleted new issuance to near zero.

[anonymous-user]

It is like groundhog Day in here, I've posted loads of information in the past on price manipulation, spoof tradind as well to bolster BTC price. Anyway

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13...

This was in 2017 peak. Nothing has really changed, only the greater virtue of BTC fanboys.

There is countless evidence of market manipulation of the price of BTC.

[x5x3]

Thesprucegoose said:

It is like groundhog Day in here, I've posted loads of information in the past on price manipulation, spoof tradind as well to bolster BTC price. Anyway

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13...

This was in 2017 peak. Nothing has really changed, only the greater virtue of BTC fanboys.

There is countless evidence of market manipulation of the price of BTC.

... yet here we are still at £9K plus - and still countless evidence of manipulation of stock prices....

[Condi]

x5x3 said:

... yet here we are still at £9K plus - and still countless evidence of manipulation of stock prices....

If you have countless evidence of stock price manipulation I would contact the FCA, CFTC, or the relevant exchange.

[Behemoth]

Thesprucegoose said:

It is like groundhog Day in here, I've posted loads of information in the past on price manipulation, spoof tradind as well to bolster BTC price. Anyway

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13...

This was in 2017 peak. Nothing has really changed, only the greater virtue of BTC fanboys.

There is countless evidence of market manipulation of the price of BTC.

And for every piece of ill-informed fud, there's plenty of evidence to the contrary. Tether gets printed when new fiat comes in. The new fiat is coming in order to buy bitcoin. Any bird brain can work out this leads to a correlation between price and Tether printing.

Bear in mind that Tether is really a pretty small part of the whole ecosystem. When you see bitcoin spiking up 10% across all exchanges, it's not a Tether conspiracy that's doing it.

Meanwhile, your typical pointless tuppence token on Huobi & Binance is of course going to be pumped and dumped to high heaven and subject to wash trade misdemeanours. Anyone sensible would focus on only the most liquid assets (which really means BTC) on the most reputable exchanges (eg Bitstamp, Gemini), just as you'd focus on the FTSE and not penny shares.

[anonymous-user]

Let's look at some facts.

Tether hasn't been audited, it admitted it doesn't have 1:1 reserves with USD.
It has accounted for 45% of BTC trading volume yesterday. Yet you say it has no impact on ecosystem....

That is the most moronic thing I've read for a while.
Also when it is reported 95% of exchanges are corrupt and provide unreliable volume data, it really doesn't look good. There is manipulation on a wide scale, the price you see has this factored into it.

And it all there in black and white on coin marketplace.

Edited by Thesprucegoose on Wednesday 14th August 12:44

Edited by Thesprucegoose on Wednesday 14th August 12:44

[Behemoth]

Thesprucegoose said:

Let's look at some facts.

Tether hasn't been audited, it admitted it doesn't have 1:1 reserves with USD.
It has accounted for 45% of BTC trading volume yesterday. Yet you say it has no impact on ecosystem....

That is the most moronic thing I've read for a while.
Also when it is reported 95% of exchanges are corrupt and provide unreliable volume data, it really doesn't look good. There is manipulation on a wide scale, the price you see has this factored into it.

And it all there in black and white on coin marketplace.

Edited by Thesprucegoose on Wednesday 14th August 12:44

Edited by Thesprucegoose on Wednesday 14th August 12:44

Where's your source for 45% ? I don't know what coin marketplace is.

Bitcoin's liquidity is widely distributed beyond Tether. Any failure of Tether would thump the market for sure, but the notion that USDT has a stranglehold on Bitcoin is fantasy.

95% of exchanges deal in junk and operate wash trading on a huge scale. We know this. That's why for your facts, you need to stick to the major reputable players. Certainly not the utter hogwash that's churned out by coinmarketcap & similar.

[anonymous-user]

sorry coinmarket cap.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#mark...

USDT trading with BTC last 24 hours - 9.7 billion on 19 total volume, so actually 51% of total volume.

So an unaudited coin, owned by an exchange with no clarity on parity with USD, which they printed 6 billion accidently recently, is being used to buy the majority of BTC on exchanges. Now you see it has a massive impact on the ‘eco system’. I think the parity is probably really 50% of usd so think you are seeing the volume of btc manipulated by 5 billion a day.

I take exception to being a fud as I base my anaylsis on facts. The similar way XRP labs buys coins back to keep the xrp coin price high. It is all on coinmarketcap and blockchains. I just think people see it totally different to the actual reality.

Why do they do this, because they make vast amounts of money off both the rise and fall of BTC..

Edited by Thesprucegoose on Wednesday 14th August 21:03

[Behemoth]

Thesprucegoose said:

sorry coinmarket cap.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#mark...

USDT trading with BTC last 24 hours - 9.7 billion on 19 total volume, so actually 51% of total volume.

So an unaudited coin, owned by an exchange with no clarity on parity with USD, which they printed 6 billion accidently recently, is being used to buy the majority of BTC on exchanges. Now you see it has a massive impact on the ‘eco system’. I think the parity is probably really 50% of usd so think you are seeing the volume of btc manipulated by 5 billion a day.

I take exception to being a fud as I base my anaylsis on facts. The similar way XRP labs buys coins back to keep the xrp coin price high. It is all on coinmarketcap and blockchains. I just think people see it totally different to the actual reality.

Why do they do this, because they make vast amounts of money off both the rise and fall of BTC..

Edited by Thesprucegoose on Wednesday 14th August 21:03

those exchanges. Over half a billion @ "zb"

Look at that list of bs and just think about it a little

[anonymous-user]

Thesprucegoose said:

Let's look at some facts.

Tether hasn't been audited, it admitted it doesn't have 1:1 reserves with USD.
It has accounted for 45% of BTC trading volume yesterday. Yet you say it has no impact on ecosystem....

That is the most moronic thing I've read for a while.
Also when it is reported 95% of exchanges are corrupt and provide unreliable volume data, it really doesn't look good. There is manipulation on a wide scale, the price you see has this factored into it.

And it all there in black and white on coin marketplace.

]

As they said on the big short, "The truth is like poetry, and most people fking hate poetry"

I totally agree with everything you say, if you go onto coinmarketcap it is all laid out for anyone to see.

NAME MARKET CAP VOUME(24h)
Bitcoin $177,317,067,153 $21,716,120,064
Tether $4,015,445,213 $23,848,757,383

As you say, Tether is tied to the dollar so there should be a bank account somewhere containing one dollar for every tether coin that has been produced. I think we can all agree that there is not a bank account somewhere with four billion dollars in it.

So as we can see, the volume of Tether traded is higher than Bitcoin, even though the total market cap is around 2% of that of Bitcoin. Hmmmm that sounds a bit suspicious, why is it so high? It's almost like Bitfinex are creating these "transparent, secure, and 100% backed" coins out of thin air and then they are being used to buy Bitcoin.

It's almost like a minority of people are getting rich out of crypto by persuading the majority of people to give them their money in return for some tokens that have been created with nothing to back them up. You could even make the whole thing sound legitimate by creating a load of hype about how Blockchain is going to be the next thing and how it will be used to pay for everything eventually. Just gloss over the fact that BTC has been around for 10 years and still nobody has actually found a use for it.

The fact that BTC accounts for 65% of all market cap shows that people are starting to realise that the other alt coins are completely worthless.

[Behemoth]

Joey Deacon said:

As they said on the big short, "The truth is like poetry, and most people fking hate poetry"

I totally agree with everything you say, if you go onto coinmarketcap it is all laid out for anyone to see.


...

The fact that BTC accounts for 65% of all market cap shows that people are starting to realise that the other alt coins are completely worthless.

Your source, Coinmarketcrap, is junk. Consider what wash trades are, who does them and how this "information" is then represented.

To your second point, you are absolutely correct, although I doubt that the 65% is accurate.

I think we're moving toward a Pareto distribution (look it up) of coins, with BTC taking 80% of value. But the overall value ("market cap") has been widely miscalculated and is fraught with problems. We know this just by looking at XRP alone.

Pareto distribution will be broken if tokens other than BTC don't find a legitimate use case. BTC's use case is already well established and gradually broadening as layers & infrastructure develops.

[anonymous-user]

Have a look at messari for a more accurate ranking based on their 'Real 10' algorithms which ignore wash trading and bots.

https://messari.io/onchainfx

[anonymous-user]

Guvernator said:

Chainlink not doing too well. dropped from a high of $3.66 to $2.99 in 5 days.

It'll be back. $2.99 is nothing to worry about for those who bought at 50p.

From about now until the end of Sept will be an important few weeks for Chainlink. There's a 3-day conference about it starting today (Monday) which may see some news from the team about what they have been working on. A major acquisition has been rumoured.

[Lemming Train]

Makes me chuckle how the thread goes silent when the coin values are all seeing another drop, yet the moment they start to rise again all the shills come out of the woodwork telling you to buy buy buy because (x) coin is a dead cert and is going to the moon.

[anonymous-user]

Lemming Train said:

Makes me chuckle how the thread goes silent when the coin values are all seeing another drop, yet the moment they start to rise again all the shills come out of the woodwork telling you to buy buy buy because (x) coin is a dead cert and is going to the moon.

I think the days of going to the moon are long gone, two years ago you could have bought any old rubbish (remember how everyone was raving about FUN, XLM, IOTA, etc.) and made a lot of money if you sold at the right time.

What I see happening now is a big gulf between BTC which has nearly 70% of market cap and all the other alt coins. I am actually amazed to see nearly 2500 coins listed, I would have thought the vast majority would have died by now.

There is still no use for any of them, I still don't understand why people are buying them aside from the hope they can sell them to a greater fool for more money.

[Lemming Train]

Joey Deacon said:

I think the days of going to the moon are long gone, two years ago you could have bought any old rubbish (remember how everyone was raving about FUN, XLM, IOTA, etc.) and made a lot of money if you sold at the right time.

What I see happening now is a big gulf between BTC which has nearly 70% of market cap and all the other alt coins. I am actually amazed to see nearly 2500 coins listed, I would have thought the vast majority would have died by now.

There is still no use for any of them, I still don't understand why people are buying them aside from the hope they can sell them to a greater fool for more money.

I am genuinely puzzled why Monero didn't take off as expected. The anonymity is PERFECT for the darknet markets and superior in every way to Bitcoin. But it didn't, and seems to have died a death like all the other coins, with traders going back to Bitcoin and using tumblers and other nonsense. I have a few hundred XMR tucked away in a wallet but the current price would have to nearly triple for me to break even again. Oh well .