Crypto Currency Thread
Discussion
Oakey said:
VHS was around for a good part of 20 years, DVD's didn't really take off until the launch of the PS2 (2000) as everyone who bought the most eagerly awaited console of it's time also got DVD functionality. If anything it's DVD that didn't last very long before Blu Ray / HD DVD came along.
I would guess that it was around the time that services such a short LoveFilm came along that I started to notice all the rental shops closing. Late 90s?I used to hate going to Blockbusters. Standing in front of all the boxes knowing that they were nearly all pretty s
t films. And then the hassle of having to take them back. The only highlight in a decade of using them was having an amusing chat with Tom Cruise in a Stanmore branch who was very insistent that I rented one of his movies and settling on the one with the 928. .....so no one (or very few people) who owned 2010-2016 bitcoin really did HOLD them. They all (or mostly) just didn't sell as they became very valuable and instead bought more??
Hmmmm
I think there are plenty of winners from this thing. Including people who bought them cheap and left them to grow a fungus. And yes, they certainly didn't crystallise peak gains, but no, they still aren't interested in cashing out - at least not until it drops to the point where they've only made 10 times what they paid.
Don't hear any braying at ALL about them.
Aren't there people called Winklepicker who bought millions of them when they cost virtually nothing? Wonder how skint THEY are??
Oh Pancho! I remember when you first arrived at PH. You were such a sweet child. What happened? Does all this negative rage rhetoric come from absorbing endless internet rubbish?
Hmmmm
I think there are plenty of winners from this thing. Including people who bought them cheap and left them to grow a fungus. And yes, they certainly didn't crystallise peak gains, but no, they still aren't interested in cashing out - at least not until it drops to the point where they've only made 10 times what they paid.
Don't hear any braying at ALL about them.
Aren't there people called Winklepicker who bought millions of them when they cost virtually nothing? Wonder how skint THEY are??
Oh Pancho! I remember when you first arrived at PH. You were such a sweet child. What happened? Does all this negative rage rhetoric come from absorbing endless internet rubbish?
Behemoth said:
DonkeyApple said:
Absolutely. I’ve the client transaction data in front of me. It makes for very depressing reading when you see how much unrealised wealth has been binned.
What clients are they and how representative are they of the worldwide dataset?
dimots said:
DonkeyApple said:
Incidentally, I notice you recently recommended that an overseas pensioner invested their £190k portfolio in P2P. Guess what’s happening to that market place?
I certainly did not. I would only ever advise to do your own research and make your own decisions. In P2P as with 'crypto' there is good and bad in the marketplace. emicen said:
dimots said:
You could look into p2p lending - e.g. zopa/funding circle.
There was a thread on that in here not so long ago, the points made by [i think] Donkey Apple were rather illuminating wrt risk vs reward on that one.coyft said:
Oakey said:
What was the bubble with videotapes?
I'm intrigued too. Every explanation so far, just describes a product lifecycle.Sure it's a "product lifecycle" (or in the case of videotapes it's a "whole industry lifecycle") but from nought to peak to nought within 20 years? Any other industries you can name with that steep a rise and that short a life?
I mean BTC's being called a "bubble" but 8 years in it's not exactly vanished, has it? It's worth what? £2500? From what? A penny. And that's a "bubble"? Looks more like product mid-lifecycle from here.
DonkeyApple said:
They are people from the planet Earth. Just normal retail investors from around the world. This bubble has been no different from any other, ever. Humans don’t change and it is humans who make bubbles.
I'm just trying to establish your source and the universe of the dataset you are looking at. My source is live, it is the complete universe of all bitcoin and is very clear. 50% of bitcoins have not moved in the past year. 12 months starts with the yellow band in this:
Detail of how this is created and a connection to the live chart is up a few posts.
DonkeyApple said:
I would guess that it was around the time that services such a short LoveFilm came along that I started to notice all the rental shops closing. Late 90s?
I used to hate going to Blockbusters. Standing in front of all the boxes knowing that they were nearly all pretty st films. And then the hassle of having to take them back. The only highlight in a decade of using them was having an amusing chat with Tom Cruise in a Stanmore branch who was very insistent that I rented one of his movies and settling on the one with the 928.
Lovefilm didn't arrive until 2002 according to it's Wiki page. I reckon the smaller video stores around my way that I grew up with throughout the 80s and 90s started to disappear around 2001-2004 (was certainly gone by 2005 as I remember it being a sandwhich shop that year and buying lunch from there a few times). I think this was mostly down to being unable to compete with Blockbuster though who could carry more copies and offer better deals. I used to hate going to Blockbusters. Standing in front of all the boxes knowing that they were nearly all pretty s
t films. And then the hassle of having to take them back. The only highlight in a decade of using them was having an amusing chat with Tom Cruise in a Stanmore branch who was very insistent that I rented one of his movies and settling on the one with the 928. VHS had a good run though, nearly two decades. My first entry into DVD was with my PS2 in 2000, and then later buying a standalone player. I'd say 2001 - 2006 was the glory years of DVD, then the PS3 came along with it's Blu-Ray player and that was the 'next big thing'. Unfortunately, Joe Public started to learn how to download films along with the rise of streaming services marked the death knell for physical media. Blockbuster went bust in 2010.
selmahoose said:
Just out of interest can you think of any other product which went from nothing to mass worldwide supply (and accompanying investment) and back to nothing as fast?
Sure it's a "product lifecycle" (or in the case of videotapes it's a "whole industry lifecycle") but from nought to peak to nought within 20 years? Any other industries you can name with that steep a rise and that short a life?
I mean BTC's being called a "bubble" but 8 years in it's not exactly vanished, has it? It's worth what? £2500? From what? A penny. And that's a "bubble"? Looks more like product mid-lifecycle from here.
cassette tape? CD's?Sure it's a "product lifecycle" (or in the case of videotapes it's a "whole industry lifecycle") but from nought to peak to nought within 20 years? Any other industries you can name with that steep a rise and that short a life?
I mean BTC's being called a "bubble" but 8 years in it's not exactly vanished, has it? It's worth what? £2500? From what? A penny. And that's a "bubble"? Looks more like product mid-lifecycle from here.
Edited by Oakey on Friday 14th December 14:45
Oakey said:
cassette tape?
Yep. Identical. Well almost. There still are some tape aficionados (Im married to one) and there's still someone manufacturing a tape cassette boombox too. Also different scale. Never seen a shop dedicated to cassette tape rental, for example.But not CDs. I still buy them (albeit 2nd hand) frequently via amazon, discogs and ebay even though they just get ripped to streamer and stored. It's a healthy industry still.
Haven't seen a VCR for years tho. Even 2nd hand and charity shops don't take them anymore.
Edited by selmahoose on Friday 14th December 15:29
Oakey said:
Joe Public started to learn how to download films along with the rise of streaming services marked the death knell for physical media. Blockbuster went bust in 2010.
BitTorrent was instrumental in the history of Bitcoin. Both are peer-to-peer and files on BitTorrent are decentralised, just as the Bitcoin ledger is. The overwhelming success of BitTorrent's disruption of the video industry led to Bitcoin's invention after a series of failed centralised e-currencies over the previous two decades.Behemoth said:
I'm just trying to establish your source and the universe of the dataset you are looking at. My source is live, it is the complete universe of all bitcoin and is very clear. 50% of bitcoins have not moved in the past year. 12 months starts with the yellow band in this:
Detail of how this is created and a connection to the live chart is up a few posts.
So half the market has done nothing post the bubble bursting? That seems perfectly on par with expectations. It’s what most people do and once they give up on the hope of a reversal they opt for the long term investment argument. Detail of how this is created and a connection to the live chart is up a few posts.
How does that data show entry dates or show that many early entrants have not been adding at higher levels, as is always the norm in these events? How does it show that early entrants closed out before peak or at any time since?
DonkeyApple said:
So half the market has done nothing post the bubble bursting? That seems perfectly on par with expectations. It’s what most people do and once they give up on the hope of a reversal they opt for the long term investment argument.
How does that data show entry dates or show that many early entrants have not been adding at higher levels, as is always the norm in these events? How does it show that early entrants closed out before peak or at any time since?
The chart shows that the long term investment argument has been there throughout.How does that data show entry dates or show that many early entrants have not been adding at higher levels, as is always the norm in these events? How does it show that early entrants closed out before peak or at any time since?
The chart doesn't show entry dates and doesn't show accumulation. It's based on the utxo set. If you care to read the article I posted earlier, it is clearly explained. The spike that's very visible in Q3 2017 is created by people moving their coins to cash out the BTC/BCH fork. Most of this is long term holders moving wallets to sell the losing side.
How about your data? You haven't explained what it is, what the source is or what the universe is.
coyft said:
Yes, the other thing they have in common, is that they weren't bubbles.
You don't think queues of people lining up to pay £25 to 'join' a video shop or literally millions of people opening video outlets and clamouring for wholesaler accounts for rental stock is even a bit classic bubble-ish upswing behaviour?Edited by selmahoose on Friday 14th December 15:18
selmahoose said:
Not sure that would have been (for example) Sony's boardroom reaction on discovering they'd invested 100's of millions in an asset that produced goods that very quickly proved to have no intrinsic value.
But you never know....
That's just a normal Tuesday for Sony. Betamax, Mini-Disc, Sony Memory Stick, AIBO But you never know....
rockin said:
coyft said:
You're confusing a bubble, with a product lifecycle.
Precisely. A bubble occurs when people buy things because they hope they will be worth more in the future, the greater fool theory. You can talk about blockchain and "in it for the tech" all you like, people bought bitcoin (especially in the last 18 months) because they thought they would make money. Basically it is a bubble if it is driven by FOMO and greed with nothing to back it up.
More relevant examples of bubbles would be:
1)Beenie Bears - Now worthless
2)Dot Com shares - Now mostly worthless (aside from the Google, Amazon, eBay etc.)
3)Aim market oil shares - (always on the verge of that big find that never seems to materialise)
Anyway, BTC getting closer to $3k and that $100 billion market cap now
coyft said:
selmahoose said:
Oakey said:
cassette tape?
Yep. Identical. Well almost. There still are some tape aficionados (Im married to one) and there's still someone manufacturing a tape cassette boombox too. Nobody was investing in video tape futures expecting to become billionaires.
The only two major bubbles in recent history are property and tech/internet shares.
Tape was just a technology that came and went like every other redundant tech before it.
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