Share tips thread (Vol 2)
Discussion
In an otherwise disappointing day, two holdings have each gone up over 11%. Bigblu Broadband (BBB) have won a contract to supply rural Lincolnshire and Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) have crossed another hurdle on the way to an 2GW underwater turbine development at Raz Blanchard / Alderney Race, off the Normandy coast. The current there can reach 12 knots at times.
g4ry13 said:
I bought some XPENG. Might turn out to be a costly mistake as FOMO was at play.
Xpeng is an interesting one. They have huge backing from Alibaba Group so this for sure would indicate a level of financial security. They haven’t been around long buy in China their sales are OK. The challenge for them is two fold I think. Firstly the Chinese market is massively congested with low cost EV cars (from under £10,000 you can drive away in an EV...). Secondly they want to sell globally but, back to point 1, they make cheap EV cars - in China this is what people want and the consideration of quality isn’t so high for this price bracket. A lot of what is accepted on a sub £10k car in China likely wouldn’t be accepted in other places I feel. Cheap EV sales in China are also driven largely by subsidies and the ability to get free license plates (by example - in shanghai an EV car can qualify for a free green shanghai license plate, whereas if you want a shanghai plate for a combustion engine car you’re looking at £20,000 and having to enter a lottery with slim chance of getting one). Take that away and will people searching for an EV purchase defer their buy and wait for a VW/Ford at slightly higher cost, or take a punt on a Chinese brand with no history or market presence? Outside China could become a Ssangyoung equivalent...
OscarJ said:
g4ry13 said:
I bought some XPENG. Might turn out to be a costly mistake as FOMO was at play.
Xpeng is an interesting one. They have huge backing from Alibaba Group so this for sure would indicate a level of financial security. They haven’t been around long buy in China their sales are OK. The challenge for them is two fold I think. Firstly the Chinese market is massively congested with low cost EV cars (from under £10,000 you can drive away in an EV...). Secondly they want to sell globally but, back to point 1, they make cheap EV cars - in China this is what people want and the consideration of quality isn’t so high for this price bracket. A lot of what is accepted on a sub £10k car in China likely wouldn’t be accepted in other places I feel. Cheap EV sales in China are also driven largely by subsidies and the ability to get free license plates (by example - in shanghai an EV car can qualify for a free green shanghai license plate, whereas if you want a shanghai plate for a combustion engine car you’re looking at £20,000 and having to enter a lottery with slim chance of getting one). Take that away and will people searching for an EV purchase defer their buy and wait for a VW/Ford at slightly higher cost, or take a punt on a Chinese brand with no history or market presence? Outside China could become a Ssangyoung equivalent...
The other aspect is the snob factor of brand. Tesla is obviously high end and seen as 'cool' to buy. If Xpeng were to release here or in Europe, will people be able to see that the cars are pretty good and want to buy one? Personally speaking, I think even the 'affordable' Tesla 3 is still rather unattainable and there's certainly room for someone to release an EV in the £15-20k price range and clean up. A Renault Zoe is about £28k RRP ffs to put it into perspective.
Another concern is quality of product and they could roll out hundreds of thousands of cars and then turn out to be utter crap in the long term. Not to mention, releasing a car on a global scale is no small feat, but if they can capture a chunk of the China market it will be great. I recall reading that predictions are 25% of China car sales will be EV in the next 5 years.
I'm not intending to be invested for the next decade in them but certainly think they have some potential to do well with all the EV hype out there.
g4ry13 said:
OscarJ said:
g4ry13 said:
I bought some XPENG. Might turn out to be a costly mistake as FOMO was at play.
Xpeng is an interesting one. They have huge backing from Alibaba Group so this for sure would indicate a level of financial security. They haven’t been around long buy in China their sales are OK. The challenge for them is two fold I think. Firstly the Chinese market is massively congested with low cost EV cars (from under £10,000 you can drive away in an EV...). Secondly they want to sell globally but, back to point 1, they make cheap EV cars - in China this is what people want and the consideration of quality isn’t so high for this price bracket. A lot of what is accepted on a sub £10k car in China likely wouldn’t be accepted in other places I feel. Cheap EV sales in China are also driven largely by subsidies and the ability to get free license plates (by example - in shanghai an EV car can qualify for a free green shanghai license plate, whereas if you want a shanghai plate for a combustion engine car you’re looking at £20,000 and having to enter a lottery with slim chance of getting one). Take that away and will people searching for an EV purchase defer their buy and wait for a VW/Ford at slightly higher cost, or take a punt on a Chinese brand with no history or market presence? Outside China could become a Ssangyoung equivalent...
The other aspect is the snob factor of brand. Tesla is obviously high end and seen as 'cool' to buy. If Xpeng were to release here or in Europe, will people be able to see that the cars are pretty good and want to buy one? Personally speaking, I think even the 'affordable' Tesla 3 is still rather unattainable and there's certainly room for someone to release an EV in the £15-20k price range and clean up. A Renault Zoe is about £28k RRP ffs to put it into perspective.
Another concern is quality of product and they could roll out hundreds of thousands of cars and then turn out to be utter crap in the long term. Not to mention, releasing a car on a global scale is no small feat, but if they can capture a chunk of the China market it will be great. I recall reading that predictions are 25% of China car sales will be EV in the next 5 years.
I'm not intending to be invested for the next decade in them but certainly think they have some potential to do well with all the EV hype out there.
vulture1 said:
Yeah I kept looking at them for a drop to buy in but they just keep going up. Jumped into Netflix instead for the q3 results due on the 20th.
Well that didnt go too well... However I will hold as I believe winter in the northern hemisphere and cinemas closed should help it keep going up.
Can someone/everyone give me some thoughts on Shell please?
It took a big knock at the start of the year due to Covid and a few political effects on the oil price, but now the "intelligent money" is more carefully considering the stocks it is still in decline and doesn't seem to have many friends at the moment.
Obviously the world has changed, and there is more of a push towards EV's and green energy etc, but fundamentally the world is just as reliant on oil as it was in January. At some point airlines will start flying again, people are already buying petrol again and consumer consumption of plastics are unchanged. Furthermore Shell are invested (belatedly) in "new energies" which seem to be gas, wind, solar etc. If anything the change from coal fired power stations to gas should help Shell, and while there is a lot of excitement about wind and solar, we will need thermal generation for days when the wind doesnt blow.
So... what has fundamentally changed to justify the share price now? Is it an over-reaction to the current low oil price, or is this now the price for the foreseeable future?
It took a big knock at the start of the year due to Covid and a few political effects on the oil price, but now the "intelligent money" is more carefully considering the stocks it is still in decline and doesn't seem to have many friends at the moment.
Obviously the world has changed, and there is more of a push towards EV's and green energy etc, but fundamentally the world is just as reliant on oil as it was in January. At some point airlines will start flying again, people are already buying petrol again and consumer consumption of plastics are unchanged. Furthermore Shell are invested (belatedly) in "new energies" which seem to be gas, wind, solar etc. If anything the change from coal fired power stations to gas should help Shell, and while there is a lot of excitement about wind and solar, we will need thermal generation for days when the wind doesnt blow.
So... what has fundamentally changed to justify the share price now? Is it an over-reaction to the current low oil price, or is this now the price for the foreseeable future?
Condi said:
Can someone/everyone give me some thoughts on Shell please?
It took a big knock at the start of the year due to Covid and a few political effects on the oil price, but now the "intelligent money" is more carefully considering the stocks it is still in decline and doesn't seem to have many friends at the moment.
Obviously the world has changed, and there is more of a push towards EV's and green energy etc, but fundamentally the world is just as reliant on oil as it was in January. At some point airlines will start flying again, people are already buying petrol again and consumer consumption of plastics are unchanged. Furthermore Shell are invested (belatedly) in "new energies" which seem to be gas, wind, solar etc. If anything the change from coal fired power stations to gas should help Shell, and while there is a lot of excitement about wind and solar, we will need thermal generation for days when the wind doesnt blow.
So... what has fundamentally changed to justify the share price now? Is it an over-reaction to the current low oil price, or is this now the price for the foreseeable future?
I have the same question but I know about engineering and oil, not financial markets. It took a big knock at the start of the year due to Covid and a few political effects on the oil price, but now the "intelligent money" is more carefully considering the stocks it is still in decline and doesn't seem to have many friends at the moment.
Obviously the world has changed, and there is more of a push towards EV's and green energy etc, but fundamentally the world is just as reliant on oil as it was in January. At some point airlines will start flying again, people are already buying petrol again and consumer consumption of plastics are unchanged. Furthermore Shell are invested (belatedly) in "new energies" which seem to be gas, wind, solar etc. If anything the change from coal fired power stations to gas should help Shell, and while there is a lot of excitement about wind and solar, we will need thermal generation for days when the wind doesnt blow.
So... what has fundamentally changed to justify the share price now? Is it an over-reaction to the current low oil price, or is this now the price for the foreseeable future?
Here’s some useful factual information:
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oi...
On average oil consumption has been around 100mmbbl/day in recent years and covid has knocked that down to just over 90 on average for this year. That plus an oversupply (shale + Russia + Saudi) which has been weighing the price down in recent years isn’t doing any of the industry companies any good.
The demand drop has everything to do with COVID, the impact of EVs etc doesn’t register yet.
Oil related news ....
"Warring factions in Libya signed a countrywide ceasefire on Friday brokered by the United Nations. The ceasefire is poised to lead to more Libyan oil supply to the market at a time when demand is weak.
"The chief culprit was Libya, where the national oil body lifted all its force majeure's and [will] ramp up production to 1 million barrels per day in the next few weeks," said Oanda Markets analyst Jeffery Halley.
"The return of just one million barrels per day of extra production to the world market has sent oil into a tailspin. It highlights how fragile sentiment is to the supply/demand balance of oil in international markets. A double-dip recession in Europe will add to the demand concerns," Halley added."
Im still holding Shell, at least its still paying dividends. Every time it goes below £10 im tempted to buy more, but dont have any spare funds to invest at the moment.
"Warring factions in Libya signed a countrywide ceasefire on Friday brokered by the United Nations. The ceasefire is poised to lead to more Libyan oil supply to the market at a time when demand is weak.
"The chief culprit was Libya, where the national oil body lifted all its force majeure's and [will] ramp up production to 1 million barrels per day in the next few weeks," said Oanda Markets analyst Jeffery Halley.
"The return of just one million barrels per day of extra production to the world market has sent oil into a tailspin. It highlights how fragile sentiment is to the supply/demand balance of oil in international markets. A double-dip recession in Europe will add to the demand concerns," Halley added."
Im still holding Shell, at least its still paying dividends. Every time it goes below £10 im tempted to buy more, but dont have any spare funds to invest at the moment.
Jambo85 said:
Condi said:
Can someone/everyone give me some thoughts on Shell please?
It took a big knock at the start of the year due to Covid and a few political effects on the oil price, but now the "intelligent money" is more carefully considering the stocks it is still in decline and doesn't seem to have many friends at the moment.
Obviously the world has changed, and there is more of a push towards EV's and green energy etc, but fundamentally the world is just as reliant on oil as it was in January. At some point airlines will start flying again, people are already buying petrol again and consumer consumption of plastics are unchanged. Furthermore Shell are invested (belatedly) in "new energies" which seem to be gas, wind, solar etc. If anything the change from coal fired power stations to gas should help Shell, and while there is a lot of excitement about wind and solar, we will need thermal generation for days when the wind doesnt blow.
So... what has fundamentally changed to justify the share price now? Is it an over-reaction to the current low oil price, or is this now the price for the foreseeable future?
I have the same question but I know about engineering and oil, not financial markets. It took a big knock at the start of the year due to Covid and a few political effects on the oil price, but now the "intelligent money" is more carefully considering the stocks it is still in decline and doesn't seem to have many friends at the moment.
Obviously the world has changed, and there is more of a push towards EV's and green energy etc, but fundamentally the world is just as reliant on oil as it was in January. At some point airlines will start flying again, people are already buying petrol again and consumer consumption of plastics are unchanged. Furthermore Shell are invested (belatedly) in "new energies" which seem to be gas, wind, solar etc. If anything the change from coal fired power stations to gas should help Shell, and while there is a lot of excitement about wind and solar, we will need thermal generation for days when the wind doesnt blow.
So... what has fundamentally changed to justify the share price now? Is it an over-reaction to the current low oil price, or is this now the price for the foreseeable future?
Here’s some useful factual information:
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oi...
On average oil consumption has been around 100mmbbl/day in recent years and covid has knocked that down to just over 90 on average for this year. That plus an oversupply (shale + Russia + Saudi) which has been weighing the price down in recent years isn’t doing any of the industry companies any good.
The demand drop has everything to do with COVID, the impact of EVs etc doesn’t register yet.
When the reversal happens (which it will at some point) there will be plenty time for big profits still, even if you don't catch the exact bottom of the cycle. That said, it might not be the same high prices as before, if stuff like aviation is affected longer term.
Condi said:
Can someone/everyone give me some thoughts on Shell please?
It took a big knock at the start of the year due to Covid and a few political effects on the oil price, but now the "intelligent money" is more carefully considering the stocks it is still in decline and doesn't seem to have many friends at the moment.
Obviously the world has changed, and there is more of a push towards EV's and green energy etc, but fundamentally the world is just as reliant on oil as it was in January. At some point airlines will start flying again, people are already buying petrol again and consumer consumption of plastics are unchanged. Furthermore Shell are invested (belatedly) in "new energies" which seem to be gas, wind, solar etc. If anything the change from coal fired power stations to gas should help Shell, and while there is a lot of excitement about wind and solar, we will need thermal generation for days when the wind doesnt blow.
So... what has fundamentally changed to justify the share price now? Is it an over-reaction to the current low oil price, or is this now the price for the foreseeable future?
Shares Magazine has a bit on Shell / BP this week or last. Their opinion was that whilst they are investing a lot in renewables, that's going to weigh heavily on their dividend in the future. I guess if you can afford to invest for the long term (5-10yrs+) it could be a good prospect, but it's quite a gamble in my mind.It took a big knock at the start of the year due to Covid and a few political effects on the oil price, but now the "intelligent money" is more carefully considering the stocks it is still in decline and doesn't seem to have many friends at the moment.
Obviously the world has changed, and there is more of a push towards EV's and green energy etc, but fundamentally the world is just as reliant on oil as it was in January. At some point airlines will start flying again, people are already buying petrol again and consumer consumption of plastics are unchanged. Furthermore Shell are invested (belatedly) in "new energies" which seem to be gas, wind, solar etc. If anything the change from coal fired power stations to gas should help Shell, and while there is a lot of excitement about wind and solar, we will need thermal generation for days when the wind doesnt blow.
So... what has fundamentally changed to justify the share price now? Is it an over-reaction to the current low oil price, or is this now the price for the foreseeable future?
NRS said:
Add in longer term negative sentiment (move to renewables, a number of big investors actively avoiding oil etc) it results in the current prices.
This is something I'm starting to accept having lost plenty in the markets - the importance of sentiment.Even if the majority are wrong, if they don't accept that the energy density and controllability/reliability of fossil fuels are several orders of magnitude better than what can be achieved with renewables, it doesn't matter. There's no point being right if the entire market disagrees with you. It's same argument as Tesla in reverse - its valuation is ludicrous, but lots of muppets disagree so if you try and short it chances are you'll lose.
That said, with oil there is a fundamental change in consumption and we don't know how long for, as already mentioned. Those 10 million barrels which are not being sold each day, even at $40/bbl that's $400 million PER DAY not going into the oil industry. Shell seem to have about 4% of the world's production so assuming they've been hit pro rata that's $16m per day top line they're not receiving on volume alone. When they spent cash on the stuff that's producing today they probably anticipated an oil price of at least $60 so rather than revenue of $240m/day (4 mm bbl x $60) that their share price was probably based on at one point, they're looking at $144m/day (3.6 mm bbl x $40). That's a fair hole.
This is fag packet maths not having looked at their earnings releases, so could be a mile off. But the underlying assumptions are valid and it's easy to demonstrate there is a change in the fundamentals as well as sentiment. Also you just have to look at the chapter 11 filings of their vendors (Diamond, Valaris, Noble) to see there is no room left for Shell et al to squeeze their vendors to simply lower their prices.
So existing over supply, then significantly reduced consumption (as a result of COVID, not EVs or wind turbines) AND negative sentiment. A mess.
cheeky_chops said:
bogie said:
Im still holding Shell, at least its still paying dividends. Every time it goes below £10 im tempted to buy more, but dont have any spare funds to invest at the moment.
just had £5k @£9.20 in my pension SIPP so long term buy jshell said:
Very long term, maybe. All my fund manager mates are avoiding Shell and heading for Total... I ditched Shell in March based on Covid and the utter shower of shyte that manages the company now. I think Shell is in real trouble, though they did report that another 7-9,000 jobs will go in the next 2 years.
Why do they see a difference between Total and Shell, given they are both fundamentally oil majors? Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff