Share tips thread (Vol 2)
Discussion
NRS said:
As a general question, how much can you trust brokers recommendations? I remember one time seeing a bank recommending a company with a certain price, causing it to jump. That same day the bank seemed to dump a bunch of shares in the same company it recommended.
You'd be a mug to trust it. They're all self-serving.NRS said:
As a general question, how much can you trust brokers recommendations? I remember one time seeing a bank recommending a company with a certain price, causing it to jump. That same day the bank seemed to dump a bunch of shares in the same company it recommended.
Rather than it being a trust issue it has much more to do with understanding who the broker is and why they are covering a stock. Nowadays most major firms give away their equity research to customers in exchange for that customers equity flows. As such and at this level the research is very high quality. Within that level you still need to know your broker and know whether the research note is generic or targeted to a more specific group of customers. You also need to know your market as well or almost as well as the analyst so as to appreciate fully how his views over any period fit or clash with your views over your required period.
Within these organisations the coverage declines as the equity market caps decline as the income potential declines so the youngest, most inexperienced analysts will be setnon the mid to smaller caps in order to learn their craft and develop important client relationships with the younger, inexperienced staff on the client side who have been set the same task.
But, I suspect you may be more thinking of UK small cap brokers producing notes on penny shares?
In that regard it is more logical to start from a basic premise that they are all total crap penned by people with no professional credibility who are operating on near minimum City wage and will almost certainly have a career that ends in two most common ways, either an Uber driver by their forties after a final bout of excessive drug abuse sees them porning off their shiny gold watch and unable to hold down regular hours or as a dishevelled ‘veteran’ analyst who waits outside the doors of a remote, tucked away pub past Aldwych at 11am each morning. They share remarkable similarities to the retail punters always punting the next get rich quick scheme being pumped but without the independent salary to protect them from their endless gambling mistakes.
If you’re talking about the typical smallcap brokers like Beaufort then just like above you do need to understand their business and how they make their money and who their customers really are. As in most businesses this is dictated by where the money comes from. It doesn’t come from the chaps with £2k to invest and paying £5 comm. it comes from the other side of the table and if that is the case then products such as research will be intended to maximise fees from the higher paying clients. The clients who have been drawn in with cheap as chips dealing costs are the cannon fodder to make it all work.
People will probably think that I am overly scathing of this endnof the industry but I am hyperbolic in my scribbling just in the hope that people who don’t work in the City environment maybe open their eyes a little bit and look at situations from a different perspective and use their personal intelligence and life education to see what isn’t actually all that hidden.
For anyone who is keen to know more about the genuinely exciting world of smallcaps and penny brokers then the first thing to invest in is going to at least half a dozen of the free London gatherings so popular with this market. You need to go to a few and just stand in the corner watching. What you will see is that all the people at the front of the room are the sort of people you wouldn’t buy a car from and all the people in the middle of the room are the types of men that you feel pity for. And around the edges are the same old faces you will see every time who are there for the free alcohol and to talk as if veteran investors but they’ve lost all their money gambling.
If you do that then you will invariably walk away thinking that either you want nothing to do with this utterly depressing environment or that you are going to short the living crap out these mugs.
After my recent success shorting SXX I'd like to look for more candidates. As I dont live near london I cant go to these gatherings so I'm wandering where these people go to chat about their dead certs online. Is there a community or forum for these get rich quick PI's to talk about their small cap picks?
ATM said:
After my recent success shorting SXX I'd like to look for more candidates. As I dont live near london I cant go to these gatherings so I'm wandering where these people go to chat about their dead certs online. Is there a community or forum for these get rich quick PI's to talk about their small cap picks?
LSEFredClogs said:
ATM said:
After my recent success shorting SXX I'd like to look for more candidates. As I dont live near london I cant go to these gatherings so I'm wandering where these people go to chat about their dead certs online. Is there a community or forum for these get rich quick PI's to talk about their small cap picks?
LSEIf get rich quick existed, everyone would be rich.
DonkeyApple said:
Rather than it being a trust issue it has much more to do with understanding who the broker is and why they are covering a stock.
Nowadays most major firms give away their equity research to customers in exchange for that customers equity flows. As such and at this level the research is very high quality. Within that level you still need to know your broker and know whether the research note is generic or targeted to a more specific group of customers. You also need to know your market as well or almost as well as the analyst so as to appreciate fully how his views over any period fit or clash with your views over your required period.
Within these organisations the coverage declines as the equity market caps decline as the income potential declines so the youngest, most inexperienced analysts will be setnon the mid to smaller caps in order to learn their craft and develop important client relationships with the younger, inexperienced staff on the client side who have been set the same task.
But, I suspect you may be more thinking of UK small cap brokers producing notes on penny shares?
In that regard it is more logical to start from a basic premise that they are all total crap penned by people with no professional credibility who are operating on near minimum City wage and will almost certainly have a career that ends in two most common ways, either an Uber driver by their forties after a final bout of excessive drug abuse sees them porning off their shiny gold watch and unable to hold down regular hours or as a dishevelled ‘veteran’ analyst who waits outside the doors of a remote, tucked away pub past Aldwych at 11am each morning. They share remarkable similarities to the retail punters always punting the next get rich quick scheme being pumped but without the independent salary to protect them from their endless gambling mistakes.
If you’re talking about the typical smallcap brokers like Beaufort then just like above you do need to understand their business and how they make their money and who their customers really are. As in most businesses this is dictated by where the money comes from. It doesn’t come from the chaps with £2k to invest and paying £5 comm. it comes from the other side of the table and if that is the case then products such as research will be intended to maximise fees from the higher paying clients. The clients who have been drawn in with cheap as chips dealing costs are the cannon fodder to make it all work.
People will probably think that I am overly scathing of this endnof the industry but I am hyperbolic in my scribbling just in the hope that people who don’t work in the City environment maybe open their eyes a little bit and look at situations from a different perspective and use their personal intelligence and life education to see what isn’t actually all that hidden.
For anyone who is keen to know more about the genuinely exciting world of smallcaps and penny brokers then the first thing to invest in is going to at least half a dozen of the free London gatherings so popular with this market. You need to go to a few and just stand in the corner watching. What you will see is that all the people at the front of the room are the sort of people you wouldn’t buy a car from and all the people in the middle of the room are the types of men that you feel pity for. And around the edges are the same old faces you will see every time who are there for the free alcohol and to talk as if veteran investors but they’ve lost all their money gambling.
If you do that then you will invariably walk away thinking that either you want nothing to do with this utterly depressing environment or that you are going to short the living crap out these mugs.
Equity research analyst - this is my job....some things are correct - research, topics and client coverage/interaction is geared toward your biggest clients (£5bn+ AUM) and some (like me) are unable to speak to the public/retail without MIFID agreements (hence being very high level in all I say on here).Nowadays most major firms give away their equity research to customers in exchange for that customers equity flows. As such and at this level the research is very high quality. Within that level you still need to know your broker and know whether the research note is generic or targeted to a more specific group of customers. You also need to know your market as well or almost as well as the analyst so as to appreciate fully how his views over any period fit or clash with your views over your required period.
Within these organisations the coverage declines as the equity market caps decline as the income potential declines so the youngest, most inexperienced analysts will be setnon the mid to smaller caps in order to learn their craft and develop important client relationships with the younger, inexperienced staff on the client side who have been set the same task.
But, I suspect you may be more thinking of UK small cap brokers producing notes on penny shares?
In that regard it is more logical to start from a basic premise that they are all total crap penned by people with no professional credibility who are operating on near minimum City wage and will almost certainly have a career that ends in two most common ways, either an Uber driver by their forties after a final bout of excessive drug abuse sees them porning off their shiny gold watch and unable to hold down regular hours or as a dishevelled ‘veteran’ analyst who waits outside the doors of a remote, tucked away pub past Aldwych at 11am each morning. They share remarkable similarities to the retail punters always punting the next get rich quick scheme being pumped but without the independent salary to protect them from their endless gambling mistakes.
If you’re talking about the typical smallcap brokers like Beaufort then just like above you do need to understand their business and how they make their money and who their customers really are. As in most businesses this is dictated by where the money comes from. It doesn’t come from the chaps with £2k to invest and paying £5 comm. it comes from the other side of the table and if that is the case then products such as research will be intended to maximise fees from the higher paying clients. The clients who have been drawn in with cheap as chips dealing costs are the cannon fodder to make it all work.
People will probably think that I am overly scathing of this endnof the industry but I am hyperbolic in my scribbling just in the hope that people who don’t work in the City environment maybe open their eyes a little bit and look at situations from a different perspective and use their personal intelligence and life education to see what isn’t actually all that hidden.
For anyone who is keen to know more about the genuinely exciting world of smallcaps and penny brokers then the first thing to invest in is going to at least half a dozen of the free London gatherings so popular with this market. You need to go to a few and just stand in the corner watching. What you will see is that all the people at the front of the room are the sort of people you wouldn’t buy a car from and all the people in the middle of the room are the types of men that you feel pity for. And around the edges are the same old faces you will see every time who are there for the free alcohol and to talk as if veteran investors but they’ve lost all their money gambling.
If you do that then you will invariably walk away thinking that either you want nothing to do with this utterly depressing environment or that you are going to short the living crap out these mugs.
Above is a fair reflection of SOME brokers and SOME recommendations but, by far, is not a reflection of the majority of analysts, just a certain section of the (mainly AIM) research houses that punt research as “sales literature”, not a true reflection of their independent thoughts (check the disclosures...)
It’s a highly competitive environment where you need to be able to build relationships with your PM clients and be able to say something different to the street/build a reputation for being correct in order to get anywhere.
Although the above may be true for some of the micro-cap brokers which punt house stocks where they have a corporate relationship some analysts (like myself) are independent and genuinely try to summarise our properly independent, highly researched thoughts on the market - I’d have the FCA and my reputation trashed if I did certain things...whatever I do say is distributed to the retail sector by the press, by which I’m often badly mis-quoted.
I’d say please take the above with a pinch of salt but look into underlying corporate relationships from any research report you read (look who the linked brokers are in the RNS eg. Via Investegate.co.uk) but most, especially away from the micro-cap of aim, where it is independent, will be ok but highly dependent on the ability of analyst involved.
p1stonhead said:
FredClogs said:
ATM said:
After my recent success shorting SXX I'd like to look for more candidates. As I dont live near london I cant go to these gatherings so I'm wandering where these people go to chat about their dead certs online. Is there a community or forum for these get rich quick PI's to talk about their small cap picks?
LSEIf get rich quick existed, everyone would be rich.
p1stonhead said:
FredClogs said:
ATM said:
After my recent success shorting SXX I'd like to look for more candidates. As I dont live near london I cant go to these gatherings so I'm wandering where these people go to chat about their dead certs online. Is there a community or forum for these get rich quick PI's to talk about their small cap picks?
LSEIf get rich quick existed, everyone would be rich.
p1stonhead said:
FredClogs said:
ATM said:
After my recent success shorting SXX I'd like to look for more candidates. As I dont live near london I cant go to these gatherings so I'm wandering where these people go to chat about their dead certs online. Is there a community or forum for these get rich quick PI's to talk about their small cap picks?
LSEIf get rich quick existed, everyone would be rich.
Penny shares (crypto’s, fx and all the retail punter faves) is gambling and it is quite toxic because it is fuelled by the desperate desire of many to get rich quick, the desire for rewards without work and the innate ability of people who are intelligent, educated and heavily experienced in their own working field to completely ignore all of that and blindly follow the random words of an unknown group of people with ulterior motives.
LSE is a window into that total insanity. In short it is a gathering of individuals who leave all common sense behind and specifically pay no regard to risk.
To play the game of penny shares as an outsider (ie on the client side) you need a large pot of which you only allocate a small percentage to this end of the market, where your losses have a tax advantage, you need to study who the spivs are and never, ever believe any of the RNS or broker hype or that of fellow punters. You are merely looking for the stock that is attracting the retail client flow this month and you are just seeking to ride a period of that flow and exit. Or short when that flow dries up, as it will.
If you start to believe the story, go in with amounts you cannot afford to just throw out the window without giving a second thought, start thinking a lower price represents something being cheaper, start using leverage, start listening to random strangers, start thinking that if you’d bought more or held longer then you’d have made more money then you are not the poker shark sitting at the table but one of the cattle who will be feeding his family, paying his mortgage, holidays and retirement out of money that you should be using to do likewise
1. Never "gamble". You will lose. That's why casinos are in business and punters aren't.
2. Penny shares are gambling. Only stake what you are happy to lose.
2. Poker - A strategic game for talented psychologists. No value is created so "winners" are still entirely dependent upon a healthy supply of "losers".
3. Never play cards with Victoria Coren Mitchell.
In contrast, value can be created through investment in a way that everyone benefits without there being any losers. Typically by,
Now then, you say, why not play cards with VCM? It's all about risk management. Wikipedia tells us,
"She was the first woman to win an event on the European Poker Tour. As of 2018 her total live tournament winnings exceed $2,470,000."
"You've got to ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?” - Dirty Harry
2. Penny shares are gambling. Only stake what you are happy to lose.
2. Poker - A strategic game for talented psychologists. No value is created so "winners" are still entirely dependent upon a healthy supply of "losers".
3. Never play cards with Victoria Coren Mitchell.
In contrast, value can be created through investment in a way that everyone benefits without there being any losers. Typically by,
- Digging stuff out of the ground and selling it for more than it cost to dig up.
- Forming a team of, say, 10 people which can work more efficiently than 10 individuals working alone.
- Building a new factory that's more efficient than the others.
- Manufacturing a new product that everybody's going to want.
Now then, you say, why not play cards with VCM? It's all about risk management. Wikipedia tells us,
"She was the first woman to win an event on the European Poker Tour. As of 2018 her total live tournament winnings exceed $2,470,000."
"You've got to ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?” - Dirty Harry
DonkeyApple said:
K12beano said:
That pretty much sums it up....
But, I believe the thinking was more about how a face-to-face customer service model would / should / could be incorporated into a disruptor model and distinguish the offering from the rather tired approach that the established banks have to offer.
Personally I hate going to places like PC World, yet don’t expect me to walk past an Apple store, I cannot stop myself from visiting that environment.
In Norwich (and other places) Virgin Money offered something akin to a free “cafe” as an attempt to disrupt normal perceptions of banking, but it failed - as far as I can see - to be a useful commercial lever, nice though their free tea and coffee might be.
I believe I, and others, have been hoping for a new, fresh approach to the perception of banks and one of these challengers should be pushing the boundaries in that way. The Bloke with Dog seems - rather sadly and lamely - to have been the ONLY attempt as a disruptor to come anywhere close to being the new dawn. But in doing so, Bloke seems to have created a Dog’s Dinner of the books..... all a big shame really....
Also the fundamental issue is that in banking the ‘disrupter’ Model doesn’t really work. Laid bare all it is is a business that doesn’t have all the licenses and plays loose with regulatory interpretations, uses vast sums of VC capital to try an remove the smaller, loss making deposit activity from the full blown banks. So phase one is to haemorrhage cash buying in loss making clients. Phase two is to spend money getting fuller licenses so that you can start lending out your clients’ money to try to limit those losses but your running costs then go up and your regulation tightens so your client acquisition rate falls as you become more cumbersome. But phase 2 is just the old building society model of only lending the money that you have on deposit. That’s not profitablenor sustainable so you need to move to phase 3 with is full banking licenses, full regulation and with that the full running costs of a traditional bank and phase 3 is not profitable without an institutional side. These disrupters are not going to ever build an institutional offering so are basically doomed to failure. But, I believe the thinking was more about how a face-to-face customer service model would / should / could be incorporated into a disruptor model and distinguish the offering from the rather tired approach that the established banks have to offer.
Personally I hate going to places like PC World, yet don’t expect me to walk past an Apple store, I cannot stop myself from visiting that environment.
In Norwich (and other places) Virgin Money offered something akin to a free “cafe” as an attempt to disrupt normal perceptions of banking, but it failed - as far as I can see - to be a useful commercial lever, nice though their free tea and coffee might be.
I believe I, and others, have been hoping for a new, fresh approach to the perception of banks and one of these challengers should be pushing the boundaries in that way. The Bloke with Dog seems - rather sadly and lamely - to have been the ONLY attempt as a disruptor to come anywhere close to being the new dawn. But in doing so, Bloke seems to have created a Dog’s Dinner of the books..... all a big shame really....
If this failure is so obvious then it leaves you asking why they have even started. The answer is two fold, firstly it gives the Board a fantastic income during the period. You’re business is haemorrhaging cash but you can pay yourself millions in salary and bonuses but secondly your ultimate intent is that an incumbent bank comes along to buy back all the clients that you have accumulated.
As an investor I view the old banks as entirely uninvestable. The newer ones may be worth an allocation at some point.
g4ry13 said:
Victoria Coren Mitchell?! 
You're showing how clueless you are about poker if you think she's good. She'd get murdered by most average players in the game.
Errr......really?You're showing how clueless you are about poker if you think she's good. She'd get murdered by most average players in the game.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Coren_Mitch...
In contrast, I think she could murder most average players!
Well with SXX, PHE and MTFB on the banana slide today I can only thank the heavens for the likes of PSN RMG and BT as well as a few other FTSE100 Companies to come to the rescue.
Fortunately the three failures are small beer (or they are now) compared to other "investments"
Especially can't understand PHE as they published a bit of decent news today, or so it seemed.
The rest, bugger, getting out finally on Monday.
Didn't even get a call at tea time to win the Super Legends Comp on Planet Rock
Fortunately the three failures are small beer (or they are now) compared to other "investments"
Especially can't understand PHE as they published a bit of decent news today, or so it seemed.
The rest, bugger, getting out finally on Monday.
Didn't even get a call at tea time to win the Super Legends Comp on Planet Rock
Burwood said:
g4ry13 said:
Victoria Coren Mitchell?!
You're showing how clueless you are about poker if you think she's good. She'd get murdered by most average players in the game.
Who’s a good player? You're showing how clueless you are about poker if you think she's good. She'd get murdered by most average players in the game.
Daniel Cates, Phil Ivey, Tom Dwan, Otbredbaron, Linus Loeliger, Daniel Coleman, Viktor Blom, Fedor Holz, Patrik Antonius, Timofey Kuznetsov, Phil Galfond. I could go on.....
VCM is definitely not one of them. She may very well have been staked for that tournament or have a tiny % of her action.She doesn't play the online games and none of the big live games. She's not a top player by any stretch and if she sat at a table there would be a queue of people waiting to play in the game.
One final point is that tournament winnings are nothing impressive unless you know the cost of buy-ins. Daniel Negreanu has cashed for over $39 million. Does that mean he is sitting around with $39 million profit? Hell no! There may be a profit there but he's spent millions on tournament buy-ins (courtesy of Pokerstars over the years). The reality is his profit might be ~$5 million despite being near the top of the leaderboard for tournament cashes.
Edited by g4ry13 on Saturday 28th September 00:54
Edited by g4ry13 on Saturday 28th September 00:55
Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff