Share tips thread (Vol 2)
Discussion
bmwmike said:
Oof lots of red today.
Arguable the markets are going to be a bit choppy for a while as the Corvid19 scenario plays out. What’s spooked the market over the weekend is the revised global outbreak data which shows there have been no cases in South America or Africa. This clearly means those two continents are doing nothing to contain the disease.
Obviously companies exposed directly to Asian production and Asian sales are being sold down but the reality is that almost all companies will be able to note a negative impact on money in if they were able to process the data. A little bit less shopping on the planet and everything begins the journey of filtering through to all businesses.
Companies with huge fixes overheads and depleted cash reserves are going to be in the spotlight.
Money is coming off the table as portfolios increase their cash and cash equivs and the flow in has pulled back. And what you normally see with events that have a first hand impact on the man in the street is that it’s their penny share holdings that get cashed in whereas with other macro economic events the small cap market can often move independently.
The big question for a speculator to be asking themself is that if the US stock market has been pumping itself up irrationally for some time what impact will this disease have on the companies that have been driving the S&P, things like the FAANGs. Would you be considering an equity strategy of long pharma, short tech for example? That used to be done by sitting long the SMI and hedging 10-25% with the Nasdaq, part of the reason the Swiss Peg grew into big business.
Either way the market is leaning towards a defensive period as we simply don’t know whether this is going to kill the zombie companies or trigger a massive spike in QE or force one side to crack and concede in the Trump trade war etc.
bad company said:
Fair point. As the saying goes ‘there won’t be a man ringing a bell to signal the bottom’. I’m out all day today but intend to feed £’s in through the week.
Guess the question is do you think the impact to all affected global and smaller companies has now been priced in. I'm not convinced. Even if it were to be gotten under control immediately I believe the next couple of quarters in many sectors could be rough. They have very definitely taken a hit.i4got said:
Guess the question is do you think the impact to all affected global and smaller companies has now been priced in. I'm not convinced. Even if it were to be gotten under control immediately I believe the next couple of quarters in many sectors could be rough. They have very definitely taken a hit.
This was the update on Carnival (who have most definitely been hit) from last week’s Telegraph. I’d say it’s about right:-Update: Carnival
We updated on the cruise line only four weeks ago but at that time few foresaw the extent of the coronavirus crisis and its impact on global tourism. Carnival’s near-term earnings could well take a hit but the business is still fundamentally the same, thanks to careful investment and fleet management. Unless the viral outbreak becomes a truly global pandemic it seems logical to expect Carnival to bob back up at some stage. Sit tight for now.
DonkeyApple said:
egomeister said:
DonkeyApple said:
[Img]https://img.discogs.com/LkHTOfu-JwvVF0au1RMKMsyUQmw=/fit-in/600x592/filters:strip_icc():format(jpeg):mode_rgb():quality(90)/discogs-images/R-6513772-1470800737-4711.jpeg.jpg[/thumb]
It’s one of those made up events by retail punters to try and explain why their position has devalued, like the mystical ‘shorter’ scenario. It comes about because people bring a confrontational perspective to their punting that needs to imagine that there is an opposition working against them in order to explain why a punt has failed at a particular moment in time.
It's funny how tree shakes and short attacks get blamed when there is little going on but when brokers are really acting in a spivvy way there is less complaints, lolIt’s one of those made up events by retail punters to try and explain why their position has devalued, like the mystical ‘shorter’ scenario. It comes about because people bring a confrontational perspective to their punting that needs to imagine that there is an opposition working against them in order to explain why a punt has failed at a particular moment in time.
Same reason why bent CEOs get support but the person who is suggesting that the CEO is bent receives their ire.
And sitting in the middle are the ‘joirnalists’ who are paid to promote one side.
bad company said:
Where’s the bottom now? 
Yesterday was never a bottom as no one knows yet what the global implications are going to be of the Coronavirus. We know it is already hitting some businesses but we know that the virus itself hasn’t directly impacted any country outside of Asia. If you get in Europe what we have seen in China which is shops shut and no one out buying anything then the bottom is nowhere near this very minor sell off. Buying ahead of data is gambling. Buying after data is investing. Buying today because it’s cheaper than yesterday is how shops sell tat to idiots, it has no place outside of the Tesco’s special items shelf.
Nothing wrong with gambling. Nothing wrong with investing. Everything wrong with an investor thinking they are investing when they are gambling.
The big play to be had this year hasn’t happened yet. The build up has begun but we aren’t at the start and we may not get there but there’s no money to go down until the start is clearly signalled.
They play is a proper big sell down in the main markets due to genuine declines in fundamentals. You then wait for the sentiment to reverse back to positive and isolate core markets which have oversold and begin slowly and steadily scaling in over a long time period with each entry point defined by a set upwards movement
If the virus were contained today the rally wouldn’t be all that spectacular, if its announced that the virus has properly spread today then the decline would be to the tune of Bachman Turner Overdrive. The risk does not validate the potential return in any way shape or form for new longs at this moment in time.
k. Jambo85 said:
DonkeyApple said:
lots
Couple of top posts on the previous page DA, really enjoy reading your analysis, please do keep it coming if you have time!Having said that, due to my brilliant financial acumen, ie luck, I sold out of my ISA last week to transfer to another platform and reckon I,ve saved a few pennies. Lunch is for wimps and all that.
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