Share tips thread (Vol 2)
Discussion
bogie said:
put the usual amount in my pension, thought I was getting a bargain, buying the dip.....and of course its down already....I guess the dip is going to be a bit longer than we imagined
With my employer getting on the salary sacrifice bandwagon, we’re now able to sacrifice a percentage of our bonus to our pension.Form submitted today, will be taken out of March’s pay packet so won’t get actioned until the 20oddth of April.
Hopefully this will pan out with a healthy boost to a sorry looking pension pot.
US stocks will go down properly if virus hits hard over there, you know how averse to germs they are, if you double dip your chicken nugget you are castigated.
I have seen people over there say buy on the dip, and if it goes down more tomorrow will buy again... they'll double dip shares at least lol . I think a lot of them have been making profit for too long. You buy on the rise after the dip after checking how alive the cat is. I think people worry they might miss out on the correction, everyone is impatient.
The great 20s crash lasted for years with several false dawn's. This virus is not going to disappear that quickly and is still spreading, so why buy now? I sold my risky stocks after the first 5% reduction from max, only holding one long term one. Most moneys is in cash at the moment, but no hurry to buy. Fear of missing out is a bad attitude when it comes to rises and falls.
I have seen people over there say buy on the dip, and if it goes down more tomorrow will buy again... they'll double dip shares at least lol . I think a lot of them have been making profit for too long. You buy on the rise after the dip after checking how alive the cat is. I think people worry they might miss out on the correction, everyone is impatient.
The great 20s crash lasted for years with several false dawn's. This virus is not going to disappear that quickly and is still spreading, so why buy now? I sold my risky stocks after the first 5% reduction from max, only holding one long term one. Most moneys is in cash at the moment, but no hurry to buy. Fear of missing out is a bad attitude when it comes to rises and falls.
Stedman said:
It is down 98%
No its not it's just around 4 quid at the moment that was a google glitch mixing up UK and US version of the shares. They've done it to me before too. I need something better than google portfolio to keep an eye on things I think.Funny how the markets falling is becoming the main news item rather than the virus itself.
Edited by bmwmike on Friday 28th February 08:20
Gandahar said:
US stocks will go down properly if virus hits hard over there, you know how averse to germs they are, if you double dip your chicken nugget you are castigated.
I have seen people over there say buy on the dip, and if it goes down more tomorrow will buy again... they'll double dip shares at least lol . I think a lot of them have been making profit for too long. You buy on the rise after the dip after checking how alive the cat is. I think people worry they might miss out on the correction, everyone is impatient.
The great 20s crash lasted for years with several false dawn's. This virus is not going to disappear that quickly and is still spreading, so why buy now? I sold my risky stocks after the first 5% reduction from max, only holding one long term one. Most moneys is in cash at the moment, but no hurry to buy. Fear of missing out is a bad attitude when it comes to rises and falls.
‘The buy the dip’ really came about because of the era of QE. The market would sell off but because so much new money was being pumped in to the system to support zombie companies and households the market was guaranteed to come back up. I have seen people over there say buy on the dip, and if it goes down more tomorrow will buy again... they'll double dip shares at least lol . I think a lot of them have been making profit for too long. You buy on the rise after the dip after checking how alive the cat is. I think people worry they might miss out on the correction, everyone is impatient.
The great 20s crash lasted for years with several false dawn's. This virus is not going to disappear that quickly and is still spreading, so why buy now? I sold my risky stocks after the first 5% reduction from max, only holding one long term one. Most moneys is in cash at the moment, but no hurry to buy. Fear of missing out is a bad attitude when it comes to rises and falls.
QE is an interesting one. We have rates at zero and the majority of global Blue chips carry too much debt and not much in the way of assets. Few companies are equipped to survive prolonged periods (for some, any period) where customers stay away or they put all their staff on gardening leave not to reimploy many even when the event is over. That’s the other factor, that companies are going to downsize their workforce’s over the long term to recoup and reshape departments, regions etc when this is over. Each of those people go from being happy to consumers to non consumers and the associated knockon effects. The only tool that remains is emergency currency devaluation via the buying of worthless junk by central goby.
At some point if this continues we have. to start seeing a pick up in the expectation of QE to stop the total collapse of Western blue chips who have spent 30 years asset stripping themselves and loading up with debt to synthesise growth.
But until then it’s important to appreciate that there is no bottom. There is also nothing other than relief to drive the markets back up.
At some point there will be a robust rally but investors wait to see it while gamblers prefer to place their bets before the ball has even been dropped into the wheel. For investors there will be loads of time to watch the market bottom, follow the first few false bounces and then see the recovery is in and start investing. But during this period it’s the time for gamblers and traders, one punting that the bottom is in and the other looking to scalp turns on the volatility.
The disease has only just been spotted in Africa and South America but it’s probably been in those countries for longer and just gone unnoticed.
In Europe you’re going to start seeing some proper pathetic behaviour from hoards with voodoo village mentalities. There are nations who are terrified to step outside of there is a cloud in the sky, Lord knows how these people will react to an invisible disease that will make them unwell for a week. Even in this country people won’t be rational about it.
And of course the virus hasn’t mutated yet which is what the quarantines are really about trying to prevent.
What’s interesting is that if this were to start blowing over today not a lot would change, companies would issue profits warning blaming the virus and we would carry on as before but the longer it lasts the more the debt piles of businesses are going to steadily kick away the last stilts holding manynof these behemoths up but also the more likely it is that human behaviour will change if there is a prolonged event.
If we have a general pandamic then previously in human culture we have had no other option but to return to how we lived before but today we actually don’t. Over the last two decades technology has been developed that means we can communicate without leaving our homes, many can work without leaving their homes and people can shop without leaving their homes. At the same time very many people don’t have the money to leave their own homes because today when we leave our homes it is to go shopping, shopping in the guise of eating, entertainment and obviously filling bags with things we don’t really need but look nice.
Currently we are travelling when we don’t need to and buying goods we can’t afford. That’s the Weatern lifestyle. A pandemic has the ability to change collective social behaviour, break habits and speed up social changes that have been simmering in the background. We have little need to drive for miles, sit for hours on a train or in a stinky flying tube that distributes everyone’s airborne disease to everyone else just to meet a person we want to do business with. Generation Z is already growing up with this gaming culture of colleagues in multiple destinations all working together seemlessly online. That generation hitting the workplace was always going to force the change but an event such as Coronavirus has the potential to bring that forward.
It is feasible that fewer people will travel on business going forward as so many meetings etc can be done without travel, it’s just a legacy of an older system. Fewer people may return to physical shopping having moved more over to online transactions to avoid random crowds. Large numbers may slow down eating out as they avoid spending 2 hours sitting in a room of potential killers and deep down they know that they were never really able to afford that activity anyway.
I’d just be happy if people went back to putting their hand over their mouth when yawning, coughing, sneezing and washed their hands more than once a week. We had these social stigmas for a very good reason and it would be nice to bring them back.
But a prolonged event could result in a significant change in the way we interact and if so we are probably looking at a market where you sell stocks over exposed to revenues derived from people moving or gathering together and buy stocks which have exposure to revenues generated via facilitating a desire for people to be away from each other.
Who knows. At this stage it’s just a matter of weighing the odds and arguably coming to the conclusion as an investor that the gambling phase is still in play and for us we are in the research, planning and waiting phase and that the only other activity we need to be doing is checking for previous errors in our investment decisions such as wrong weightings or weightings that have changed and making the correct amendments.
Alternatively we could just buy some old Cold War era NBC suits, some crossbows, tins of beans, bury a shipping container in the woods and start drawing up a list of people we want to murder. But really we ought to just let the Americans do what they do while we say just blame the French for being unhygienic and moan at the Germans for being more disease resistant.
DonkeyApple said:
We have little need to drive for miles, sit for hours on a train or in a stinky flying tube that distributes everyone’s airborne disease to everyone else just to meet a person we want to do business with. Generation Z is already growing up with this gaming culture of colleagues in multiple destinations all working together seemlessly online. That generation hitting the workplace was always going to force the change but an event such as Coronavirus has the potential to bring that forward.
It is feasible that fewer people will travel on business going forward as so many meetings etc can be done without travel, it’s just a legacy of an older system.
It's baffled me for a long time why so many people still travel across the world for meetings. A nice big HD Screen with reliable, expensive VC equipment and you're virtually in the room with each other.It is feasible that fewer people will travel on business going forward as so many meetings etc can be done without travel, it’s just a legacy of an older system.
It seems like an enormous waste of time and life to be doing it in this day and age.
Having said that, I'm not in an industry that needs to wine and dine potential clients so maybe it's that.
rossub said:
It's baffled me for a long time why so many people still travel across the world for meetings.
Same reason as truckers and airline pilots, prostitution and illicit gay sex? 
When you’re younger it’s a bit of excitement to travel to meetings but it soon becomes all rather boring so you tend to find that those who persist in doing it tendnto have ugly wives or deviant tastes.
DonkeyApple said:
rossub said:
It's baffled me for a long time why so many people still travel across the world for meetings.
Same reason as truckers and airline pilots, prostitution and illicit gay sex? When you’re younger it’s a bit of excitement to travel to meetings but it soon becomes all rather boring so you tend to find that those who persist in doing it tendnto have ugly wives or deviant tastes.
So true!bmwmike said:
Stedman said:
It is down 98%
No its not it's just around 4 quid at the moment that was a google glitch mixing up UK and US version of the shares. They've done it to me before too. I need something better than google portfolio to keep an eye on things I think.Funny how the markets falling is becoming the main news item rather than the virus itself.
Edited by bmwmike on Friday 28th February 08:20
rossub said:
DonkeyApple said:
We have little need to drive for miles, sit for hours on a train or in a stinky flying tube that distributes everyone’s airborne disease to everyone else just to meet a person we want to do business with. Generation Z is already growing up with this gaming culture of colleagues in multiple destinations all working together seemlessly online. That generation hitting the workplace was always going to force the change but an event such as Coronavirus has the potential to bring that forward.
It is feasible that fewer people will travel on business going forward as so many meetings etc can be done without travel, it’s just a legacy of an older system.
It's baffled me for a long time why so many people still travel across the world for meetings. A nice big HD Screen with reliable, expensive VC equipment and you're virtually in the room with each other.It is feasible that fewer people will travel on business going forward as so many meetings etc can be done without travel, it’s just a legacy of an older system.
It seems like an enormous waste of time and life to be doing it in this day and age.
Having said that, I'm not in an industry that needs to wine and dine potential clients so maybe it's that.
Greshamst said:
1.7 trillion dollars is reported as having been wiped off the stock market.
There are 83,726 confirmed cases
2,859 confirmed deaths.
So each death averages out at $594million worth of stock market losses.
Or $20m per confirmed case.
$20m in stock losses per death is almost as much market value Tesla puts on every time they sell a car. Well at least until last Monday.There are 83,726 confirmed cases
2,859 confirmed deaths.
So each death averages out at $594million worth of stock market losses.
Or $20m per confirmed case.
clubsport said:
One of the most important aspect of trading is to manage your cognitive & emotional bias, we have many posting on here about how they sold moments before the sell off and a few who bought just before.
Overconfidence on one hand, hindsight & traders regret on the other.
Bear that in mind when investing, seasoned traders do not have the definitive answers here, only reacting to the way the market behaves based on experience and the trading metric tools available. Even to the largest players, the sum of market flows are only evident ex post.
After such an agressive sell off this week, the expectation would be for a slight recovery from todays low prices before the closing bell.
In part as a squaring up off postions ahead of the weekend (reducing exposure) until trading resumes Sunday night in Tokyo/ Singapore.
In regards to that, a slight recovery does not mean this is over, markets are at the mercy of any weekend news reports on the effect of the virus.
Today may be the greatest buying opportunity in a decade, but you may have thought that yesterday?
"Today may be the greatest buying opportunity in a decade, but you may have thought that yesterday? Overconfidence on one hand, hindsight & traders regret on the other.
Bear that in mind when investing, seasoned traders do not have the definitive answers here, only reacting to the way the market behaves based on experience and the trading metric tools available. Even to the largest players, the sum of market flows are only evident ex post.
After such an agressive sell off this week, the expectation would be for a slight recovery from todays low prices before the closing bell.
In part as a squaring up off postions ahead of the weekend (reducing exposure) until trading resumes Sunday night in Tokyo/ Singapore.
In regards to that, a slight recovery does not mean this is over, markets are at the mercy of any weekend news reports on the effect of the virus.
Today may be the greatest buying opportunity in a decade, but you may have thought that yesterday?
"Exactly. Two examples from Tesla. Tesla fans have always said buy on the dip, so come last Monday some tesla fan lady said again, buy on the dip. Not sure what financial background she has, probably none but likes Elon. So we get this on Tuesday
https://twitter.com/TasserMatthias/status/12322850...
He sold his car to get more Tesla shares, so now has less money and has to pay for the bus on Friday. Donkey Apple would call that high risk leveraging and fall about laughing at the stupidity. The ironic thing is now he is going to work on the bus / train full of people with sneezes and has less money ...
Come later in the week another Tesla person called ValueAnalyst , another Tesla fanboy who thinks the shares will goit to $10 000 each and no Tesla car ever depreciated ( graph to prove ) said buy on the dip. Someone listened
https://twitter.com/TeslaDiehardFan/status/1233055...
He bought $70k worth and now worth a lot less. And we still don't know where the bottom is. The kicker he spent $70k of his own cash due to reading someone with followers on twitter rather than a good old financial adviser who has seen it all before and if still in business is either lucky or clever and probably both.
People are saying " I'll buy again today, and if it goes down again tomorrow, I'll buy more". This is just saying you bought the first lot overpriced. There is also an expression "throwing money after bad".
I know Tesla investors are insane compared to the average, but even so. It shows that greed and a gravy train is not a happy long term marriage.
When Tesla went up to $900+ I was watching the twitter as they all celebrated and somebody posted
"i want to buy some shares, what time does the stock market open ?"
Er .... if you have to ask that, then you shouldn't be buying Tesla shares on this short selling megabubble. Sadly they didn't do him a favour and say no don't do it due to inexperience, but instead told him the actual time.
That is fear in the USA of failing to being a hobo on the gravy train in 2020. They will all end up like the Cassandra Crossing......
Gandahar said:
clubsport said:
One of the most important aspect of trading is to manage your cognitive & emotional bias, we have many posting on here about how they sold moments before the sell off and a few who bought just before.
Overconfidence on one hand, hindsight & traders regret on the other.
Bear that in mind when investing, seasoned traders do not have the definitive answers here, only reacting to the way the market behaves based on experience and the trading metric tools available. Even to the largest players, the sum of market flows are only evident ex post.
After such an agressive sell off this week, the expectation would be for a slight recovery from todays low prices before the closing bell.
In part as a squaring up off postions ahead of the weekend (reducing exposure) until trading resumes Sunday night in Tokyo/ Singapore.
In regards to that, a slight recovery does not mean this is over, markets are at the mercy of any weekend news reports on the effect of the virus.
Today may be the greatest buying opportunity in a decade, but you may have thought that yesterday?
When Tesla went up to $900+ I was watching the twitter as they all celebrated and somebody postedOverconfidence on one hand, hindsight & traders regret on the other.
Bear that in mind when investing, seasoned traders do not have the definitive answers here, only reacting to the way the market behaves based on experience and the trading metric tools available. Even to the largest players, the sum of market flows are only evident ex post.
After such an agressive sell off this week, the expectation would be for a slight recovery from todays low prices before the closing bell.
In part as a squaring up off postions ahead of the weekend (reducing exposure) until trading resumes Sunday night in Tokyo/ Singapore.
In regards to that, a slight recovery does not mean this is over, markets are at the mercy of any weekend news reports on the effect of the virus.
Today may be the greatest buying opportunity in a decade, but you may have thought that yesterday?
"i want to buy some shares, what time does the stock market open ?"
Er .... if you have to ask that, then you shouldn't be buying Tesla shares on this short selling megabubble. Sadly they didn't do him a favour and say no don't do it due to inexperience, but instead told him the actual time.
I sold immediately
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