What's your take on Tesla?
Discussion
Watch this illuminating short video on the future of Tesla between two analysts with differing viewpoints:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Hcfzv5dl1Y
The cynic makes some good points about cashflow (burning cash) and consistently missing targets.
In contrast, the optimist compares Tesla to that of early Amazon. His point being that early Amazon was 'unprofitable' for a long time, but it was investing everything to carve out a new industry, become a leading pioneer... hence it's share price today.
I like the Amazon metaphor... but I do wonder if that could apply for Tesla. The big car manufacturers (competition) are already beginning to tickle their market with electric automobiles. Think Chevrolet Bolt, Jaguar I-pace etc
What do you think - would you buy Tesla shares?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Hcfzv5dl1Y
The cynic makes some good points about cashflow (burning cash) and consistently missing targets.
In contrast, the optimist compares Tesla to that of early Amazon. His point being that early Amazon was 'unprofitable' for a long time, but it was investing everything to carve out a new industry, become a leading pioneer... hence it's share price today.
I like the Amazon metaphor... but I do wonder if that could apply for Tesla. The big car manufacturers (competition) are already beginning to tickle their market with electric automobiles. Think Chevrolet Bolt, Jaguar I-pace etc
What do you think - would you buy Tesla shares?
Edited by JaredVannett on Sunday 22 July 23:08
Tesla have managed to turn their customers into fanatical zombies a la Apple in a way that no other car company ever has. I think the competition and critics would be foolish to underestimate that.
They can stay fanatical long after most conventional analysts will have given it the last rites. It's the first silicon valley crossover into that arena so it's a question of whether traditional economics wins out or unicorns reign.
They can stay fanatical long after most conventional analysts will have given it the last rites. It's the first silicon valley crossover into that arena so it's a question of whether traditional economics wins out or unicorns reign.
They clearly have some smart people, some great technology, imagination and drive. The question is can they harness all of that to meet the expectations Musk and his very good marketing have built up in thier legions of followers. Actually producing vehicles in significant reliable quantities is harder than marketing them, and that’s the gap they need to cross. Eventually even the most ardent investor/supporter need ps to see they’ll get a return. I suspect they’ll find they can eventually make more money licensing that technology to an actual manufacturer like Daimler, VAG or Ford.
I feel quite privileged that I've grown up in a time that I can drive a petrol engined car that makes a real noise, and have full control of it myself.
I fear the future will be electric cars with synthesised noise, and controlled driving, not to mention far more tax to enter cities, and use motorways etc.
Sorry, that was off topic.
Tesla have boldly gone into the electric car market, other manufacturers will catch up no doubt, the new Jag I-Pace looks decent enough.
My guess it the first manufacturer who gets the breakthrough on better batteries and faster charge time will win the day if they can patent the design.
Or are manufacturers working together on this?
Anyone?
I fear the future will be electric cars with synthesised noise, and controlled driving, not to mention far more tax to enter cities, and use motorways etc.
Sorry, that was off topic.
Tesla have boldly gone into the electric car market, other manufacturers will catch up no doubt, the new Jag I-Pace looks decent enough.
My guess it the first manufacturer who gets the breakthrough on better batteries and faster charge time will win the day if they can patent the design.
Or are manufacturers working together on this?
Anyone?
JaredVannett said:
What do you think - would you buy Tesla stock?
No way at the moment, I wouldn't buy any electric car.The battery technology is moving too fast.
What if in two years time you can buy an electric car with 600 mile range and a recharge time of 10 minutes?
If that happens what would a 2018 100k Tesla be worth then?
Edit, sorry I misunderstood your question, stock, as in shares I presume. Silly me...
Edited by Trevor555 on Sunday 22 July 21:44
Trevor555 said:
I feel quite privileged that I've grown up in a time that I can drive a petrol engined car that makes a real noise, and have full control of it myself.
I fear the future will be electric cars with synthesised noise, and controlled driving, not to mention far more tax to enter cities, and use motorways etc.
Sorry, that was off topic.
Tesla have boldly gone into the electric car market, other manufacturers will catch up no doubt, the new Jag I-Pace looks decent enough.
My guess it the first manufacturer who gets the breakthrough on better batteries and faster charge time will win the day if they can patent the design.
Or are manufacturers working together on this?
Anyone?
yes, but the others are many years behind. The I-pace is nice .. but Tesla are making (currently) more M3's in a week than JLR will do in a year .. their advantage is scale , which means they'll either be more profitable or take market share. Investors are playing the long game (just like with Amazon). I fear the future will be electric cars with synthesised noise, and controlled driving, not to mention far more tax to enter cities, and use motorways etc.
Sorry, that was off topic.
Tesla have boldly gone into the electric car market, other manufacturers will catch up no doubt, the new Jag I-Pace looks decent enough.
My guess it the first manufacturer who gets the breakthrough on better batteries and faster charge time will win the day if they can patent the design.
Or are manufacturers working together on this?
Anyone?
Interesting thoughts.
The point about Tesla having an apple type fanbase is a great point... maybe it's worth considering 'brand' value.
Also, the silicon valley narrative probably gives them the edge. Examples include, first to put in a massive 'ipad' in the dash which companies like Volvo now include in some of their vehicles. Also the ability of over the air updates akin to mobile phone OS updates.
As already mentioned, maybe the endgame is to license out some of these features when the big boys arrive, and move away from vehicle production.
The point about Tesla having an apple type fanbase is a great point... maybe it's worth considering 'brand' value.
Also, the silicon valley narrative probably gives them the edge. Examples include, first to put in a massive 'ipad' in the dash which companies like Volvo now include in some of their vehicles. Also the ability of over the air updates akin to mobile phone OS updates.
As already mentioned, maybe the endgame is to license out some of these features when the big boys arrive, and move away from vehicle production.
Trevor555 said:
Edit, sorry I misunderstood your question, stock, as in shares I presume. Silly me...
Changed it to 'shares' now anyway There is little any manufacturer can do to secure substantially better btteries beyond fund basic science research into batteries. The properties (energy density, charge rate) are to a large degree chemically driven by what you make the batteries out of. A big change in chemistry (i.e. new chemistry...) is required to get a big advance in battery properties.
I saw a NIO car in a Goodwood FoS video and realised that if they/the Chinese can hook it up (no pun intended) things could change a lot https://www.nio.io/
There will always be a place for the 'smug' brigade (I like the Apple analogy), but what will the mass market buy and where will the next investment lie? Currently I believe there's a year-plus wait for Teslas. It might work for Morgan but is it OK for Tesla?
There will always be a place for the 'smug' brigade (I like the Apple analogy), but what will the mass market buy and where will the next investment lie? Currently I believe there's a year-plus wait for Teslas. It might work for Morgan but is it OK for Tesla?
It is burning a colossal amount of cash and has consistently failed to deliver on its targets. Musk is skating very close to lying to investors. Unless they can suddenly start producing the cars to target then they'll need another cash injection, despite promising this wouldn't be necessary.
It looks like a vanity project for Musk, I wouldn't go near it.
It looks like a vanity project for Musk, I wouldn't go near it.
I've never driven a Tesla or an electric car from one of the premium brands. I'd have thought this would be the determining factor in answering your question.
Don't forget, most traditional retailers have an e-commerce site, but most are light years behind Amazon in terms of product range, cost and ability to deliver.
Don't forget, most traditional retailers have an e-commerce site, but most are light years behind Amazon in terms of product range, cost and ability to deliver.
hairyben said:
The amazon anology is flawed, people use amazon because its convenient and cheap and easy and frankly because they click and don't care, wheras teslas success is largely because its very fashionable, problem is fashions change and there'll be a new next big thing soon enough.
We are talking about Tesla as an investment .. not end user experience. Amazon like Tesla lost stacks of money for its early years, but investors bought the vision. Jeff is now worth $150b ...Tesla aren't a car company, they're a renewable energy company. On that basis I have invested and will continue to do so.
On the car front, I would not be surprised if they pulled profit out of the hat by then end of this FY. The Model 3 is a huge success and the order book is humungous and growing. Fast forward a few years and Tesla Fleet becomes a possibility and that's when serious cash can be made, add haulage on top of this as well as vast energy storage projects and we're away.
On the car front, I would not be surprised if they pulled profit out of the hat by then end of this FY. The Model 3 is a huge success and the order book is humungous and growing. Fast forward a few years and Tesla Fleet becomes a possibility and that's when serious cash can be made, add haulage on top of this as well as vast energy storage projects and we're away.
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