"Safe" investment, maybe gold?

[DonkeyApple]

ATM said:

FED now rumoured to be printing to pay reverse repo - it is up to 2.5 Trillion

It's hard to see that in the charts, if the case. The USD is totally dominating gold still and in the 12 month chart you can see the aggressive tightening to November when market sentiment on the FED's rate increase pace changed and the more recent climb is linked to the drop in M2 and fall in inflation that backs the believed that rate rises will be slower than last year's aggressive catch-up. But it's still all about the dollar and we're still a GBP economy.

[Mr Whippy]

DonkeyApple said:

If people are actually serious about investing and making returns then people have to not use Reddit, Twitter or any of that stuff.

Investing and making returns are two different things.

Given many now advocate global trackers for yield, then isn’t investing increasingly becoming just buying a tracker and sitting there?


Making returns is another thing entirely… and only a fool would ignore the signals that come from social media to help determine buying/selling opportunities.

Shoe shine boy and all that.

[DonkeyApple]

Only in penny share like stuff where facts can be swamped easily by propaganda and PR and liquidity is low enough that punter power can impact.

Gold breaches that in that it is swamped with punter lunacy on social media yet the market is too large for them to dominate and manipulate.

It's a crossover asset between the two pools in that regard.

Someone pumping out conspiracy theorist drivel on a junk stock is well worth considering but flip that to other markets where liquidity exceeds the purchasing power of punters and its just mindless twaddle of no use.

I paid off my first home and moved to another on the back of arbing social media posts against reality in 1999 and have spent a career since using the flows from that area so I do have a fair idea as to when it has value for flow or when when it's good for direction.

Plus, 20+ years of watching the flow of retail gold traders and investors along with their KYC data allows for a pretty accurate opinion of the market.

[Mr Whippy]

Roger that, so no value from social media wrt gold.

What about silver and other PMs in your view?

[ATM]

DonkeyApple said:

ATM said:

FED now rumoured to be printing to pay reverse repo - it is up to 2.5 Trillion

It's hard to see that in the charts, if the case.

Not sure if it would be in a chart. Reverse Repo pays just over lower end of the FED rate range and with ZERO risk. Banks park their money in Reverse Repo and FED pays them around 4% now. So you can see / calc much that is on 2.5 Trillion. Where does that money come from? The answer is the magic money tree.

If they stopped offering Reverse Repo facility then where would the banks park that money? They would need to buy collateral. Treasuries or Bonds. If the banks poured 2.5 Trillion into Bonds and Treasuries then their value would go up. That would push interest rates down.

So I'm confused - genuinely. If Reverse Repo keeps interest rates up then why did they start offering it during the zero interest rate era. Maybe they had no choice. Maybe because the banks wouldn't buy any Bonds because they're sheet and they don't want them. But now they can't stop it because it will lower interest rates if they do. But only if Banks buy Bonds with that money. Anyway my head hurts now.

[Scootersp]

DonkeyApple said:

Only in penny share like stuff where facts can be swamped easily by propaganda and PR and liquidity is low enough that punter power can impact.

Gold breaches that in that it is swamped with punter lunacy on social media yet the market is too large for them to dominate and manipulate.

Ok so if the little deluded punters can't move the market, what does?

The recent uplift post Christmas is driven by what? non loony, high wealth individuals/hedge funds/family offices/central banks, those of presumable sound wise minds with valid reasons and not one of those spurious ones you attach to an individual? or just those of sufficient means to dominate/manipulate it up for their gain?

[DaveA8]

Scootersp said:

DonkeyApple said:

Only in penny share like stuff where facts can be swamped easily by propaganda and PR and liquidity is low enough that punter power can impact.

Gold breaches that in that it is swamped with punter lunacy on social media yet the market is too large for them to dominate and manipulate.

Ok so if the little deluded punters can't move the market, what does?

The recent uplift post Christmas is driven by what? non loony, high wealth individuals/hedge funds/family offices/central banks, those of presumable sound wise minds with valid reasons and not one of those spurious ones you attach to an individual? or just those of sufficient means to dominate/manipulate it up for their gain?

I get your sarcasm but I actually think there is enough funds/banks etc who you would think should know better that are still buyers at every uptick. Whether it turns out to be trading, who knows.
What has happened is that what was cheap (US Industrials) have become expensive because of a sort of rotation.
The other thing I struggle with is the complete inability of these investment funds/houses to plough their own path. If A buys into the market, B,C,D and E will go in also because their so scared of under performing and even if they under perform, they just shrug it off.
The other shift I see is how a lot of seemingly mediocre US fund managers are now buying themselves time by saying that UK, EU, Emerging markets is the place to be.
It goes to prove that even when cash can earn something, people will still buy an asset at over the odds to be in the game.

[ATM]

I bank with one of the big well known high street banks. I hit some security check system yesterday which meant my account got locked. Today I spoke to them to sort this out. It took around 30 minutes of my life. They gave me a lot of warnings about scams and asked if I was transferring money for crypto or because someone had asked me to. All sorts of madness. I was transferring money to one of these online challenger banks. They asked me how long I had this account and why I was transferring money to this account. Some of these questions border on the - that's none of your business - but I answered in full. Also they asked me for my permission to take an audio print of my voice to use for further phone banking checks. Obviously I agreed. Prior to speaking to someone I had to listen to audio messages warning me that their staff will not put up with any verbal abuse and this may result in my account being closed. This is starting to feel like madness.

[alscar]

ATM said:

I bank with one of the big well known high street banks. I hit some security check system yesterday which meant my account got locked. Today I spoke to them to sort this out. It took around 30 minutes of my life. They gave me a lot of warnings about scams and asked if I was transferring money for crypto or because someone had asked me to. All sorts of madness. I was transferring money to one of these online challenger banks. They asked me how long I had this account and why I was transferring money to this account. Some of these questions border on the - that's none of your business - but I answered in full. Also they asked me for my permission to take an audio print of my voice to use for further phone banking checks. Obviously I agreed. Prior to speaking to someone I had to listen to audio messages warning me that their staff will not put up with any verbal abuse and this may result in my account being closed. This is starting to feel like madness.

Apologies for further thread derail but you got off lightly at 30 minutes.
During Covid I tried to open an account with the sponsor of the Finance thread to be told by my High Street Bank that the payee was probably fraudulent and unless I went to a branch my online access would be suspended. No amount of pointing out going into a branch was not what I wanted to do cut any ice.
I went that afternoon to the nearest branch ( 20 mile round trip ) and luckily the manager was doing nothing and asked me if he could assist.
Long story short all sorted and complaint raised there and then ( spoke to them in Managers office ) and they agreed appalling service and compensation offered.
Fwiw the fraudulent company name wasn’t even that close !

[Dixy]

Middle of last year I had to transfer a large sum to HMR&C. The bank insisted it could not be done on line or over the phone. Nearest branch again 20 mile round trip as they have closed all their branches as they are not needed. Took half an hour and they spent a lot of the time telling me it could be a con or a scam.
I enjoyed pointing out to them that HMR&C were indeed thieving wasters but legal.

[ATM]

alscar said:

Apologies for further thread derail but you got off lightly at 30 minutes.

Apologies I didn't realise this was a derail. Surely the bull case for Gold is protection or insurance against the [however unlikely] event that the UK banking system is in a mess and we could see some problems which has people looking elsewhere or even something could break. Why are they so concerned about Fraud all of a sudden. Surely it must be costing them money.

[alscar]

ATM said:

Apologies I didn't realise this was a derail. Surely the bull case for Gold is protection or insurance against the [however unlikely] event that the UK banking system is in a mess and we could see some problems which has people looking elsewhere or even something could break. Why are they so concerned about Fraud all of a sudden. Surely it must be costing them money.

I suspect the Banks keenness on asking all these so called “ questions for your benefit “ is in fact in an effort to protect themselves. I would mind less if they could at least apply some form of filter ie your previous history etc. I get there are a lot of scams but even so.
You aren’t even safe from their questions if you happen to be in branch and need a relatively large sum out. I needed £5k to pay a local Blacksmith for 2 sculptures my wife had commissioned. The questions being asked were as if I was 90 years old and had a gang outside waiting to pick me up.

[alscar]

Dixy said:

Middle of last year I had to transfer a large sum to HMR&C. The bank insisted it could not be done on line or over the phone. Nearest branch again 20 mile round trip as they have closed all their branches as they are not needed. Took half an hour and they spent a lot of the time telling me it could be a con or a scam.
I enjoyed pointing out to them that HMR&C were indeed thieving wasters but legal.

Lol - not that the Bank would actually be hearing you as once they start their “ autopilot” speech there is literally no stopping them !
The days of knowing the cashier in your local branch are sadly well gone.

[r3g]

alscar said:

ATM said:

Apologies I didn't realise this was a derail. Surely the bull case for Gold is protection or insurance against the [however unlikely] event that the UK banking system is in a mess and we could see some problems which has people looking elsewhere or even something could break. Why are they so concerned about Fraud all of a sudden. Surely it must be costing them money.

I suspect the Banks keenness on asking all these so called “ questions for your benefit “ is in fact in an effort to protect themselves. I would mind less if they could at least apply some form of filter ie your previous history etc. I get there are a lot of scams but even so.
You aren’t even safe from their questions if you happen to be in branch and need a relatively large sum out. I needed £5k to pay a local Blacksmith for 2 sculptures my wife had commissioned. The questions being asked were as if I was 90 years old and had a gang outside waiting to pick me up.

This is what happens when people scream for more regulation and how the government "must do something" and "protect me from scammers" rather than engage the brain they're born with and perform their own due diligence. Only got yourselves to blame.

[alscar]

r3g said:

This is what happens when people scream for more regulation and how the government "must do something" and "protect me from scammers" rather than engage the brain they're born with and perform their own due diligence. Only got yourselves to blame.

Don’t disagree although as one with a brain and ability to perform my own due diligence I refuse to blame myself !
It’s also not every Financial entity that behaves like this but the High Street Banks seem to compete as to who can be more painful to deal with.

[r3g]

alscar said:

r3g said:

This is what happens when people scream for more regulation and how the government "must do something" and "protect me from scammers" rather than engage the brain they're born with and perform their own due diligence. Only got yourselves to blame.

Don’t disagree although as one with a brain and ability to perform my own due diligence I refuse to blame myself !
It’s also not every Financial entity that behaves like this but the High Street Banks seem to compete as to who can be more painful to deal with.

Sorry yes, my post wasn't directed at you specifically, but rather all those people who scream for more financial rEguLaTiOn tO pRoTeCt YoU then act all surprised and angry a few months down the line when their bank locks them out of their account for some spurious reason.

[RSTurboPaul]

ATM said:

I bank with one of the big well known high street banks. I hit some security check system yesterday which meant my account got locked. Today I spoke to them to sort this out. It took around 30 minutes of my life. They gave me a lot of warnings about scams and asked if I was transferring money for crypto or because someone had asked me to. All sorts of madness. I was transferring money to one of these online challenger banks. They asked me how long I had this account and why I was transferring money to this account. Some of these questions border on the - that's none of your business - but I answered in full. Also they asked me for my permission to take an audio print of my voice to use for further phone banking checks. Obviously I agreed. Prior to speaking to someone I had to listen to audio messages warning me that their staff will not put up with any verbal abuse and this may result in my account being closed. This is starting to feel like madness.

May I ask why you felt it was 'obvious' to agree to a request/demand to harvest your unchanging biometric data?

[ATM]

RSTurboPaul said:

May I ask why you felt it was 'obvious' to agree to a request/demand to harvest your unchanging biometric data?

During a call about suspicious fraud it felt wrong to refuse this. If it protects me from further rubbish customer service it's a win surely. What havoc can they wreak with this?

[r3g]

Facepalm.jpg

[ATM]

Saudi Arabia just said they are now 'open' to the idea of trading in currencies besides the US dollar

https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.finance.yahoo.com/...