"Safe" investment, maybe gold?

"Safe" investment, maybe gold?

Author
Discussion

227bhp

10,203 posts

128 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
Like bog roll and pasta, you've left it a bit late to be buying gold. You should have listened to the doom mongers a year or two ago.
Where the heck all this money is coming from I have no idea, it's not like we were exactly rolling in it before this hit and the current costs must be astronomical. They're actually paying mine and thousands more wages to stay at home, it's bonkers.
Obviously I understand why, but it still looks like financial suicide.

egomeister

6,700 posts

263 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
227bhp said:
Like bog roll and pasta, you've left it a bit late to be buying gold. You should have listened to the doom mongers a year or two ago.
Where the heck all this money is coming from I have no idea, it's not like we were exactly rolling in it before this hit and the current costs must be astronomical. They're actually paying mine and thousands more wages to stay at home, it's bonkers.
Obviously I understand why, but it still looks like financial suicide.
If current policy is financial suicide, why is it late to buy gold?

jshell

11,006 posts

205 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
egomeister said:
227bhp said:
Like bog roll and pasta, you've left it a bit late to be buying gold. You should have listened to the doom mongers a year or two ago.
Where the heck all this money is coming from I have no idea, it's not like we were exactly rolling in it before this hit and the current costs must be astronomical. They're actually paying mine and thousands more wages to stay at home, it's bonkers.
Obviously I understand why, but it still looks like financial suicide.
If current policy is financial suicide, why is it late to buy gold?
There;s the gamble, but try and find some...

Novexx

Original Poster:

346 posts

74 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
Thank you for all your opinions, differing as they are!

Bottom line is that I just feel a little nervous of virtual "stuff", s*** hits the fan & regardless of what a bit of paper promises, weather a certificate or currency there just isn't any guarantee that it will be honoured or worth anything / as much as it was.

If I'm not much concerned about profiting, prepared to take a small % hit & just trying to secure what I have, does a physical asset that's in my possession & readily tradeable not make at least some sense (World going beyond the Walking Dead aside)?

Current situation aside, what's the best way to but physical precious metal to minimise loss when the chips are cashed in - coins, bars.. There seems to be a wide variation in pricing for "retail" gold considering gold is gold is gold. I can see that the market does have high priced products that appear to have some BS attached to them, but even going beyond that, pricing seems pretty variable.


jshell

11,006 posts

205 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
Novexx said:
Thank you for all your opinions, differing as they are!

Bottom line is that I just feel a little nervous of virtual "stuff", s*** hits the fan & regardless of what a bit of paper promises, weather a certificate or currency there just isn't any guarantee that it will be honoured or worth anything / as much as it was.

If I'm not much concerned about profiting, prepared to take a small % hit & just trying to secure what I have, does a physical asset that's in my possession & readily tradeable not make at least some sense (World going beyond the Walking Dead aside)?

Current situation aside, what's the best way to but physical precious metal to minimise loss when the chips are cashed in - coins, bars.. There seems to be a wide variation in pricing for "retail" gold considering gold is gold is gold. I can see that the market does have high priced products that appear to have some BS attached to them, but even going beyond that, pricing seems pretty variable.

Have a look through here: https://www.bairdmint.com/gold/bars You can buy pure bars for a slight premium over gold market price. The smaller the bar, the greater the premium. Worst case is that you can sell it back to the provider or any other dealer for 'scrap' value. SIlver and Platinum are subject to VAT so poor investments. Small gold bars can be very, very easily hidden in the house - even under the edge of a carpet in extreme cases. Few burglars lift the carpets. UK coins are mostly GCT exempt and have a Sterling face value.

ChocolateFrog

25,295 posts

173 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
Novexx said:
Thank you for all your opinions, differing as they are!

Bottom line is that I just feel a little nervous of virtual "stuff", s*** hits the fan & regardless of what a bit of paper promises, weather a certificate or currency there just isn't any guarantee that it will be honoured or worth anything / as much as it was.

If I'm not much concerned about profiting, prepared to take a small % hit & just trying to secure what I have, does a physical asset that's in my possession & readily tradeable not make at least some sense (World going beyond the Walking Dead aside)?

Current situation aside, what's the best way to but physical precious metal to minimise loss when the chips are cashed in - coins, bars.. There seems to be a wide variation in pricing for "retail" gold considering gold is gold is gold. I can see that the market does have high priced products that appear to have some BS attached to them, but even going beyond that, pricing seems pretty variable.

Surely you've missed the boat already.

Once everything has gone relatively back to normal in a year you'll have an asset that you bought somewhere near the peak demand.

Novexx

Original Poster:

346 posts

74 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
ChocolateFrog said:
Surely you've missed the boat already.
Novexx said:
Current situation aside

Mr Whippy

29,029 posts

241 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
Over 5 years I think gold has averaged me 4%+ a year.

So it’s out paced UK inflation.

But the strong USD has weakened UK gold price.

US are walking a fine line printing to oblivion despite everyone rushing into USD.


I’d still get in gold now because imo nothing is priced in.

The gold market responds like a 70yr old does to a quarantine...

Mr Whippy

29,029 posts

241 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
jshell said:
Mr Whippy said:
Just buy UK legal tender coins direct from Royal Mint as it’s less likely you’ll buy a tungsten core’d lump of gold hehe
Problem is the Royal Mint are more expensive for their own products than good dealers that re-sell. Very strange.
I bought 1/4 as they’re more in line with sovereigns, but have much higher face value (puts a floor on value), and have a much lower chance of being 1oz tungsten “covered in gold” varieties.

I’m not so keen on sovereigns, the colour is weird.
The history in them is interesting though, I’ve a bunch from late 1800s through to 2014 ish.
Some of the 30s ones are probably 10% mass missing due to wear hehe

jshell

11,006 posts

205 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
Mr Whippy said:
jshell said:
Mr Whippy said:
Just buy UK legal tender coins direct from Royal Mint as it’s less likely you’ll buy a tungsten core’d lump of gold hehe
Problem is the Royal Mint are more expensive for their own products than good dealers that re-sell. Very strange.
I bought 1/4 as they’re more in line with sovereigns, but have much higher face value (puts a floor on value), and have a much lower chance of being 1oz tungsten “covered in gold” varieties.

I’m not so keen on sovereigns, the colour is weird.
The history in them is interesting though, I’ve a bunch from late 1800s through to 2014 ish.
Some of the 30s ones are probably 10% mass missing due to wear hehe
Was looking at 1/4's, but if the shyte hits the fan so bad, I'll just be chipping bits off my 1 oz'ers to buy slices of bread and flagons of mead!

ATG

20,575 posts

272 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
Behemoth said:
Ah, that'll be the basket of goods that the govt carefully curates wink

Inflation exists in many more places than measurements of the price of bread and a gallon of petrol.
Buy tin foil futures

Mr Whippy

29,029 posts

241 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
ATG said:
Behemoth said:
Ah, that'll be the basket of goods that the govt carefully curates wink

Inflation exists in many more places than measurements of the price of bread and a gallon of petrol.
Buy tin foil futures
Just check out the graph which was posted.

Internet, TVs and telephones are cheaper, so win win... inflation is low hehe

If you calculate your personal inflation level and don’t buy TVs and phones all the time, then it seems gold is a good buy.

But if you like to buy TVs and phones. Avoid the yellow metal.


My only advice on PMs is avoid silver hehe

VAT + spread = insta 25% loss.

egomeister

6,700 posts

263 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
Mr Whippy said:
Just check out the graph which was posted.

Internet, TVs and telephones are cheaper, so win win... inflation is low hehe

If you calculate your personal inflation level and don’t buy TVs and phones all the time, then it seems gold is a good buy.

But if you like to buy TVs and phones. Avoid the yellow metal.


My only advice on PMs is avoid silver hehe

VAT + spread = insta 25% loss.
I must admit to having a few silver coins, but mainly because the look nice and you can play around with them like poker chips biggrin I'd struggle to put forward a compelling case to own them on an investment basis.

VAT can be avoided depending on where you buy...

Mr Whippy

29,029 posts

241 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
I found the EU sellers with low VAT just loaded their prices.
So you got it with less VAT but paid more, so not a huge saving.

Plus it was often ‘used’ so the bullion stuff was a bit average too.

That said even my 20 sealed tubs of RM lunar stuff from 2015/16 have gone a bit milky.


Either way if silver went sans VAT I’d probably have more.

As it stands it takes up loads of room, is a bit boring, and hasn’t made me any money unless I literally sell one coin at a time on eBay kinda thing.


Gold 1/4oz is the way to go if you’re dabbling at first imo.

Behemoth

2,105 posts

131 months

Friday 27th March 2020
quotequote all
Mr Whippy said:
Just check out the graph which was posted.

Internet, TVs and telephones are cheaper, so win win... inflation is low
Consumer inflation is a side show for now. The real story is asset inflation. See what the stock market growth over the past few decades looks like when mapped against the money supply. There are lots of analyses around on S&P500 / US M2. I'm sure there's a similar picture for the UK.

227bhp

10,203 posts

128 months

Saturday 28th March 2020
quotequote all
egomeister said:
227bhp said:
Like bog roll and pasta, you've left it a bit late to be buying gold. You should have listened to the doom mongers a year or two ago.
Where the heck all this money is coming from I have no idea, it's not like we were exactly rolling in it before this hit and the current costs must be astronomical. They're actually paying mine and thousands more wages to stay at home, it's bonkers.
Obviously I understand why, but it still looks like financial suicide.
If current policy is financial suicide, why is it late to buy gold?
Because like bog roll and pasta, when people are rushing around to buy it the price rockets. By the time it's public knowledge it's old news.
If you study the charts for long enough you see a pattern emerging and it drops in value at the same time every year which is the time to buy.

Mr Whippy

29,029 posts

241 months

Saturday 28th March 2020
quotequote all
227bhp said:
egomeister said:
227bhp said:
Like bog roll and pasta, you've left it a bit late to be buying gold. You should have listened to the doom mongers a year or two ago.
Where the heck all this money is coming from I have no idea, it's not like we were exactly rolling in it before this hit and the current costs must be astronomical. They're actually paying mine and thousands more wages to stay at home, it's bonkers.
Obviously I understand why, but it still looks like financial suicide.
If current policy is financial suicide, why is it late to buy gold?
Because like bog roll and pasta, when people are rushing around to buy it the price rockets. By the time it's public knowledge it's old news.
If you study the charts for long enough you see a pattern emerging and it drops in value at the same time every year which is the time to buy.
The price hasn’t exactly rocketed.

Maybe I’m used to watching BTC, now there is an apparently uncorrelated and rocketing (up and down) price.


The whole point of physical is that it’s not a paper promise and it’s undervalued because of that.
Any point is a good time to buy because the paper market is keeping the physical value suppressed.

Having a paper gold position as a hedge on stocks seems to be like an inverse stock ETF, so why not just hold that?

Physical is a different thing.

Hold for 5 years and it’ll trend ahead of the underlying currency in the times of QE/money printing... though not the stock/asset market... but that’s why it’s a good hedge because if they drop gold often goes the other way.
BUT, gold is in hand and relatively liquid, while money in the markets isn’t.
Just look at all the ‘liquid’ bonds freezing redemptions and so on.


Physical gold has its place. It’s fun. It’s interesting. Most decent home insurers will cover it under usual policies. It’s unlikely to lose you any money unless you buy in a mania (now isn’t one imo), so why not just buy some?

My biggest worry getting mine was fakes/scams etc, not the price per se.

ATG

20,575 posts

272 months

Saturday 28th March 2020
quotequote all
Mr Whippy said:
ATG said:
Behemoth said:
Ah, that'll be the basket of goods that the govt carefully curates wink

Inflation exists in many more places than measurements of the price of bread and a gallon of petrol.
Buy tin foil futures
Just check out the graph which was posted.

Internet, TVs and telephones are cheaper, so win win... inflation is low hehe

If you calculate your personal inflation level and don’t buy TVs and phones all the time, then it seems gold is a good buy.

But if you like to buy TVs and phones. Avoid the yellow metal.


My only advice on PMs is avoid silver hehe

VAT + spread = insta 25% loss.
The accusation was that the govt picks the items in the inflation basket to deliberately understate inflation. They don't. Even if they did, it'd be entirely pointless as they are hardly the sole source of inflation measures. The monetary authorities model the economy with whatever inflation measures they deem appropriate and they don't have a vested interest in persistently underestimating inflation.

In the UK we do see politicians picking whichever of RPI and CPI sounds best when taking to Joe Public, but that doesn't make either RPI or CPI wrong or a distortion of reality. They're just different in the same way that a Ford Focus is not a Mondeo.

Mr Whippy

29,029 posts

241 months

Saturday 28th March 2020
quotequote all
Inflation guides gov policy. That influences the environment you’re operating in.

As an individual making investments and managing their own affairs, inflation to gauge performance is ultimately a personal thing.


Basically it’s just another number on a spreadsheet.

As long as you’re happy with what you get vs what you need, great.

Behemoth

2,105 posts

131 months

Saturday 28th March 2020
quotequote all
ATG said:
The accusation was that the govt picks the items in the inflation basket to deliberately understate inflation. They don't. Even if they did, it'd be entirely pointless as they are hardly the sole source of inflation measures. The monetary authorities model the economy with whatever inflation measures they deem appropriate and they don't have a vested interest in persistently underestimating inflation.

In the UK we do see politicians picking whichever of RPI and CPI sounds best when taking to Joe Public, but that doesn't make either RPI or CPI wrong or a distortion of reality. They're just different in the same way that a Ford Focus is not a Mondeo.
You entirely miss my point, which was that consumer inflation isn't the only inflation. By any means.