What’s your big gamble? (Volume 3)
Discussion
ferrisbueller said:
Can someone sanity check my rationale here please?
I'm looking at exit strategies for various holdings. Especially some companies that are trading at almost the same market cap as they were pre-covid.I'm looking at market cap as it gives a very different picture to share price due to dilution. Surely people aren't just assuming the prices are equivalent and the new norm will see a return to previous levels? For some companies to do that their market cap would have to increase massively. e.g. people previously looking at Aston going back to £19
Is there any reason why companies that have had to sell off assets or issued shares or increased debt or similar would come out of this being more valuable? I've thought of things like restructuring, elimination of competition, what other reasons would there be to look at please?
A few companies may well have a higher mcap post covid than before simply because their products fit in with the new normal (working from home type products etc that will be more the norm from now on imo). Others may have a higher mcap now as their products may be in higher demand than before (High St holiday companys that had no staff costs and no assets like airplanes to weigh them down for example).I'm looking at exit strategies for various holdings. Especially some companies that are trading at almost the same market cap as they were pre-covid.I'm looking at market cap as it gives a very different picture to share price due to dilution. Surely people aren't just assuming the prices are equivalent and the new norm will see a return to previous levels? For some companies to do that their market cap would have to increase massively. e.g. people previously looking at Aston going back to £19
Is there any reason why companies that have had to sell off assets or issued shares or increased debt or similar would come out of this being more valuable? I've thought of things like restructuring, elimination of competition, what other reasons would there be to look at please?
However in general if there is no good reason for mcap to be near or above pre covid mcap then I personally would be nervous and would look to exit especially if on a profit as it suggests they are a bit over priced now.
The only other rational reason mcap may be higher now (assuming all other things equal) is the amount of money now in the market (i.e. all the RobinHooders and all PIs being given printed money to spend but nothing to spend it on so spend it on shares, and we all follow certain threads, YouTube channels etc so chase the same narrow range of companies). For example I got sucked in to that with EQT a few weeks back and regret it as now well down and I think that was pumped by PI even if long term it has a reasonable business case.
In short if their product isn't more in demand post covid than before, yet the mcap is higher, then I'd look to exit whilst on a high.
MikeStroud said:
No. The AMGO case is specifically related to previous Amigo trading practices and compo claims arising from them.
Ok that's interesting - thanks. Am I then being naive to think it could be worth stuffing more £££ into NSF... it's up circa 30% today alone but still only 25% of it's 52-wk high.Skyedriver said:
Sat on the fence this morning with finger hovering over a few top up on either AMGO or EUA. in the end did neither as son wanted the lap top for school video meeting. Could have had AMGO at 13p,oh well, still have my holding at 9p so nicely up on a £3k investment. Lot more to come for AMGO I'm sure, despite the nay sayers. EUA slipped back this morning. KIST and PHE moving up slowly.
Should be happy but gave my wife a lift into the hospital, car failed to start in hospital car park which resulted in a walk across town for a new battery... £90down..
I share your pain today Should be happy but gave my wife a lift into the hospital, car failed to start in hospital car park which resulted in a walk across town for a new battery... £90down..
Phooey said:
MikeStroud said:
No. The AMGO case is specifically related to previous Amigo trading practices and compo claims arising from them.
Ok that's interesting - thanks. Am I then being naive to think it could be worth stuffing more £££ into NSF... it's up circa 30% today alone but still only 25% of it's 52-wk high.MikeStroud said:
AMGO up 36.66% just then, what do they know I don't? Either these buyers don't care about the lose all your money court case risk or they know something I don't !
Not complaining, just baffled.
Had to run to a meeting... got back to my desk after market close... 16.3p!Not complaining, just baffled.
Doesn't look like it is showing any signs of pulling back... has some serious momentum behind it.
Really thought it would trickle up and stall ahead of the court case at the end of March.
I'm now way past bagging... At 19p it becomes a multi-bag for me. Madness. Totally flabbergasted.
Chris Type R said:
JustinF said:
Aiminghigh123 said:
Portfolio pushing 4% gain today!!!!
ditto 
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