Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst
Discussion
Jeremy Grantham warns that the stock market is going to implode and it could be like 1929 all over again.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05...
Assuming you agree with his assesment, what can you do to mitigate against this risk?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05...
Assuming you agree with his assesment, what can you do to mitigate against this risk?
Edited by PeteinSQ on Thursday 7th January 14:45
Arrange to get an advanced copy of the USDA's monthly orange crop report.
Share this report on twitter and Facebook doctoring it to show extensive damage to the Florida orange crop, due to a hard freeze.
Order your agent to buy a ton of orange juice futures right before the data is officially announced, on the premise that the freeze will cause a shortage of oranges and the value of the contracts to surge.
Just need to hit the trading floor for 10 mins... Will finish off later...
Share this report on twitter and Facebook doctoring it to show extensive damage to the Florida orange crop, due to a hard freeze.
Order your agent to buy a ton of orange juice futures right before the data is officially announced, on the premise that the freeze will cause a shortage of oranges and the value of the contracts to surge.
Just need to hit the trading floor for 10 mins... Will finish off later...
dingg said:
BoRED S2upid said:
Bitcoin, gold, silver, property, wine...
But no I don’t agree with the article. Until interest rates increase people have no other option but the stock market.
What he said. But no I don’t agree with the article. Until interest rates increase people have no other option but the stock market.
No where else to go with the cash
It is pretty much inevitable it will crash, how soon however is debatable.
Perhaps history is repeating itself. After the Spanish flu we got the roaring 20s. 100 years later with have another pandemic and another stock market rise. People will be desperate to get out of their houses, travel and do cultural things which might well see the economy do well for a bit. After the roaring 20s we got the Great Depression. Usual advice prevails, don’t stick all your eggs in one basket.
Perhaps history is repeating itself. After the Spanish flu we got the roaring 20s. 100 years later with have another pandemic and another stock market rise. People will be desperate to get out of their houses, travel and do cultural things which might well see the economy do well for a bit. After the roaring 20s we got the Great Depression. Usual advice prevails, don’t stick all your eggs in one basket.
Worth reading https://www.amazon.co.uk/Deficit-Myth-Modern-Monet... to get your head round Modern Monetary Theory. Obviously traditional economists are sceptical.
Personally I don't agree with the FOMO/TINA hypothesis. There's always some alternative. There were some investment strategies where people would weight their equity exposure inversely to the PE ratio. Not sure it's worked out for them, but possibly given some peace of mind.
Personally I don't agree with the FOMO/TINA hypothesis. There's always some alternative. There were some investment strategies where people would weight their equity exposure inversely to the PE ratio. Not sure it's worked out for them, but possibly given some peace of mind.
Buy anything with real yield in a bullish or bearish environment, real utility, limited supply, and whose value hasn’t correlated with everything else recently (Gold, crypto etc)... and isn’t too heavily controlled by central bank ‘management’ (Gold etc)
Agri land for the win right now.
Agri land for the win right now.
CzechItOut said:
Does anyone know how much as a percentage QE and deficits are contributing compared to the normal creation of money through loans, mortgages etc.?
As long as that is continuing, it will inevitably inflate asset prices.
Not the answer you asked for but I think the number of $7 trillion as the amount of money was created last year. So money is worth less and assets are worth more because there’s a much bigger supply of money than assets As long as that is continuing, it will inevitably inflate asset prices.
This is kind of a concern I have at the moment, I see no point in money sitting in a savings account earning 0.01% APR, so I'm looking to diversify things a bit, I'll happily put money into Crypto (as I feel I understand it better), but I don't have much confidence in the stock market itself, everything looks rather overvalued.
I guess I should just pick a fund and go with it, to start really, rather than sit here and watch my money get eroded by inflation thanks to the colossal amounts of money we've been printing...
I guess I should just pick a fund and go with it, to start really, rather than sit here and watch my money get eroded by inflation thanks to the colossal amounts of money we've been printing...
take-good-care-of-the-forest-dewey said:
Arrange to get an advanced copy of the USDA's monthly orange crop report.
Share this report on twitter and Facebook doctoring it to show extensive damage to the Florida orange crop, due to a hard freeze.
Order your agent to buy a ton of orange juice futures right before the data is officially announced, on the premise that the freeze will cause a shortage of oranges and the value of the contracts to surge.
Just need to hit the trading floor for 10 mins... Will finish off later...
I'm off to eat the remains of my salmon after reading this lolShare this report on twitter and Facebook doctoring it to show extensive damage to the Florida orange crop, due to a hard freeze.
Order your agent to buy a ton of orange juice futures right before the data is officially announced, on the premise that the freeze will cause a shortage of oranges and the value of the contracts to surge.
Just need to hit the trading floor for 10 mins... Will finish off later...
It's all interesting.....I think having some cash is still very important, perhaps more important than ever. Stock market, precious metals and crypto have all done well, I just have a mental block on crypto personally, obviously in hindsight this has cost me, but for years I had cash Isa's which cost me too.
Billions made every year by just having money and shuffling it around occasionally, and it's mainly to the detriment of those not in it. It seems counter intuitive, but in keeping with the times, that low risk savers currently get nothing and almost any portfolio owners get many multiples more interest.
More people than ever moving away from cash holdings to get something, hell you could probably borrow £25k now And whack it in a fund, gold or Bitcoin and 'win'......can that carry on? There is a lot of market optimism in an economy that we should be realistic/pessimistic about? But low interest rates and money printing/social support to stop most defaults just means it marches on.......not sure what happens in the medium/long term.
Billions made every year by just having money and shuffling it around occasionally, and it's mainly to the detriment of those not in it. It seems counter intuitive, but in keeping with the times, that low risk savers currently get nothing and almost any portfolio owners get many multiples more interest.
More people than ever moving away from cash holdings to get something, hell you could probably borrow £25k now And whack it in a fund, gold or Bitcoin and 'win'......can that carry on? There is a lot of market optimism in an economy that we should be realistic/pessimistic about? But low interest rates and money printing/social support to stop most defaults just means it marches on.......not sure what happens in the medium/long term.
Scootersp said:
not sure what happens in the medium/long term.
Remember, all this started in 2008. Therefore, are we not in the medium term now? Maybe this is the new normal, ultra low interest rates, government deficits, semi-continual QE.It's funny, I go on a business forum where people routinely ask "What's my business worth?". The answer is always "whatever someone is prepared to pay for it."
Therefore, why doesn't the same logic apply to shares, rather than the old fashioned view of "fair value"?
PeteinSQ said:
Jeremy Grantham warns that the stock market is going to implode and it could be like 1929 all over again.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05...
Assuming you agree with his assesment, what can you do to mitigate against this risk?
What do you believe, Pete?https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-05...
Assuming you agree with his assesment, what can you do to mitigate against this risk?
Edited by PeteinSQ on Thursday 7th January 14:45
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