Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst
Discussion
bmwmike said:
Is that verified? Its eerily, suspiciously, similar - if its right surely that means in 10 years it'll all be back up and dandy, and even better, we'll know the *exact* bottom in the next 12 months or so
edit - 15 not 10
Edited by bmwmike on Thursday 19th May 13:44
It's the kind of "chart crime" that gets trotted out owing to its being seductively convincing to simpletons.
NowWatchThisDrive said:
bmwmike said:
Is that verified? Its eerily, suspiciously, similar - if its right surely that means in 10 years it'll all be back up and dandy, and even better, we'll know the *exact* bottom in the next 12 months or so
edit - 15 not 10
Edited by bmwmike on Thursday 19th May 13:44
It's the kind of "chart crime" that gets trotted out owing to its being seductively convincing to simpletons.
bmwmike said:
NowWatchThisDrive said:
bmwmike said:
Is that verified? Its eerily, suspiciously, similar - if its right surely that means in 10 years it'll all be back up and dandy, and even better, we'll know the *exact* bottom in the next 12 months or so
edit - 15 not 10
Edited by bmwmike on Thursday 19th May 13:44
It's the kind of "chart crime" that gets trotted out owing to its being seductively convincing to simpletons.
Riight. Thank you for that.
NowWatchThisDrive said:
bmwmike said:
NowWatchThisDrive said:
bmwmike said:
Is that verified? Its eerily, suspiciously, similar - if its right surely that means in 10 years it'll all be back up and dandy, and even better, we'll know the *exact* bottom in the next 12 months or so
edit - 15 not 10
Edited by bmwmike on Thursday 19th May 13:44
It's the kind of "chart crime" that gets trotted out owing to its being seductively convincing to simpletons.
Riight. Thank you for that.
Sorry, on reflection my reply comes across a bit rudely. I didn't mean it as a dig at you, more the people who come up with and promulgate this kind of useless stuff - in this case a bunch of oddball teenagers who have probably been watching markets together on Reddit for all of 2 years and managed to convince each other that it's all a conspiracy and that they alone know everything. Generally, if you torture a dataset enough, you can use it as a basis for almost any prediction you care to make that might seem compelling on the surface, but doesn't stand up at all to proper scrutiny. I guarantee you that nobody who is actually worth listening to will be hanging their hat on the kind of material that the "Wall Street Silver" Reddit community deals in
Mr Whippy said:
Only when the CBs talk about loosening, and then actually do it, will we know the bottom is approaching... given for the last 15 years CBs money makes the economy go... until they're back in feeding it, it'll be going nowhere.
I'm at -3.1% but that's mostly because I'm still grossly overweight cash.
My thoughts are that the FED cares about the real economy (e.g. employment, wages, inflation etc.) and not the stock market or EM debt, for example. In fact until recently the market had tended to be negatively correlated with the economy as stimulus was doing the heavy lifting and not growth.
Mr Whippy said:
Building up enough headroom to stimulate again later in the year when prices reach pandemic lows?!
Most analysts seem to think inflation will still be too sticky after running hot for a year. A pause might be the best we can hope for - if they can dislodge inflation.My thoughts are that the FED cares about the real economy (e.g. employment, wages, inflation etc.) and not the stock market or EM debt, for example. In fact until recently the market had tended to be negatively correlated with the economy as stimulus was doing the heavy lifting and not growth.
Interestingly, the published inflation measurement is for the past 12 months.
If (for example) energy prices remain stable at the present very high level in one years time, the inflation for that commodity would then record as zero. You knew that already.
Hopefully the price of that commodity will decline, then that would help reduce the reported inflation figure.
Only a thought.
Jon39 said:
Interestingly, the published inflation measurement is for the past 12 months.
If (for example) energy prices remain stable at the present very high level in one years time, the inflation for that commodity would then record as zero. You knew that already.
Hopefully the price of that commodity will decline, then that would help reduce the reported inflation figure.
Only a thought.
Edited by speedy_thrills on Friday 20th May 09:07
speedy_thrills said:
My thoughts are that the FED cares about the real economy (e.g. employment, wages, inflation etc.) and not the stock market or EM debt, for example. In fact until recently the market had tended to be negatively correlated with the economy as stimulus was doing the heavy lifting and not growth.
It is difficult to separate the 2 - stock prices and the real economy (e.g. employment, wages, inflation etc.).My friend works for Nvidia. There are a lot of well paid people working there. Probably because they were all working on the assumption that the share price was justified. So they see the share price going up and therefore the business is valued more and therefore they start employing more people or paying everyone more. The bubble in share price gives them the means or justification to employ talented people even if they have nothing for them to do. Same with Tesla I imagine. I know a recruitment guy who said they are recruiting like crazy for the new plant - is it in Germany. So they will suck all the talented people from the market and probably over pay or pay more than anyone else to get them because they have deep pockets. This obviously has a ripple effect on everyone else.
Obviously the conspiracy theorists will tell you that senior FED staff are looking at their share portfolios and playing the market. Some have been caught doing just that and got no come back. That's quite shocking if you ask Me.
xeny said:
Mr Whippy said:
Only when the CBs talk about loosening, and then actually do it, will we know the bottom is approaching... given for the last 15 years CBs money makes the economy go... until they're back in feeding it, it'll be going nowhere.
If you're looking for the bottom, it'll be close enough to go on the support of the CBs.
But remember the "market" is an aggregate of sensible people, long term investors, traders, etc, and so the reality is that on the tail of a bear market, the expectation is as likely to be 'is this really the bottom', as at the tail of the bull market 'is this really the top'
Greed prolongs the bull run, fear prolongs the bear run.
As noted, if the market was so good at this stuff, markets would be lovely smooth lines, but they're not. They're jaggedy.
You only have to look at all the people who fill casinos and gamble despite knowing they're in a net losing position over any kind of time-frame beyond walking away and never returning after the first win.
People are, by and large, a bit daft... so that skews "the market"
Mr Whippy said:
I agree. And there will be little to lose if you're averaging in.
If you're looking for the bottom, it'll be close enough to go on the support of the CBs.
But remember the "market" is an aggregate of sensible people, long term investors, traders, etc, and so the reality is that on the tail of a bear market, the expectation is as likely to be 'is this really the bottom', as at the tail of the bull market 'is this really the top'
Greed prolongs the bull run, fear prolongs the bear run.
As noted, if the market was so good at this stuff, markets would be lovely smooth lines, but they're not. They're jaggedy.
You only have to look at all the people who fill casinos and gamble despite knowing they're in a net losing position over any kind of time-frame beyond walking away and never returning after the first win.
People are, by and large, a bit daft... so that skews "the market"
In my youth a friend and I went regularly to our local casino armed with £20 each in cash. (twenty pounds only no credit cards taken !) We would have a whole evening having free soft drinks and sandwiches served by pretty girls in short skirts and part of the time we would either lose our money, break even or come out up by a few quid. Fun evenings out and then drive back in a white sierra which in the dark looked like a cop car. If you're looking for the bottom, it'll be close enough to go on the support of the CBs.
But remember the "market" is an aggregate of sensible people, long term investors, traders, etc, and so the reality is that on the tail of a bear market, the expectation is as likely to be 'is this really the bottom', as at the tail of the bull market 'is this really the top'
Greed prolongs the bull run, fear prolongs the bear run.
As noted, if the market was so good at this stuff, markets would be lovely smooth lines, but they're not. They're jaggedy.
You only have to look at all the people who fill casinos and gamble despite knowing they're in a net losing position over any kind of time-frame beyond walking away and never returning after the first win.
People are, by and large, a bit daft... so that skews "the market"
good memory jogger.Oh an my younger brother got a job at the casino doing car jocky/security and he said I can ban anyone, I said - no you cant, yes i can etc etc. week or so later I had a letter in the post telling me I was banned. Arse ! grovel to brother and back in.
hahaEdited by superlightr on Friday 20th May 11:47
Edited by superlightr on Friday 20th May 11:48
Edited by superlightr on Friday 20th May 11:49
ATM said:
speedy_thrills said:
My thoughts are that the FED cares about the real economy (e.g. employment, wages, inflation etc.) and not the stock market or EM debt, for example. In fact until recently the market had tended to be negatively correlated with the economy as stimulus was doing the heavy lifting and not growth.
It is difficult to separate the 2 - stock prices and the real economy (e.g. employment, wages, inflation etc.).My friend works for Nvidia. There are a lot of well paid people working there. Probably because they were all working on the assumption that the share price was justified. So they see the share price going up and therefore the business is valued more and therefore they start employing more people or paying everyone more. The bubble in share price gives them the means or justification to employ talented people even if they have nothing for them to do. Same with Tesla I imagine. I know a recruitment guy who said they are recruiting like crazy for the new plant - is it in Germany. So they will suck all the talented people from the market and probably over pay or pay more than anyone else to get them because they have deep pockets. This obviously has a ripple effect on everyone else.
Obviously the conspiracy theorists will tell you that senior FED staff are looking at their share portfolios and playing the market. Some have been caught doing just that and got no come back. That's quite shocking if you ask Me.
speedy_thrills said:
ATM said:
speedy_thrills said:
My thoughts are that the FED cares about the real economy (e.g. employment, wages, inflation etc.) and not the stock market or EM debt, for example. In fact until recently the market had tended to be negatively correlated with the economy as stimulus was doing the heavy lifting and not growth.
It is difficult to separate the 2 - stock prices and the real economy (e.g. employment, wages, inflation etc.).My friend works for Nvidia. There are a lot of well paid people working there. Probably because they were all working on the assumption that the share price was justified. So they see the share price going up and therefore the business is valued more and therefore they start employing more people or paying everyone more. The bubble in share price gives them the means or justification to employ talented people even if they have nothing for them to do. Same with Tesla I imagine. I know a recruitment guy who said they are recruiting like crazy for the new plant - is it in Germany. So they will suck all the talented people from the market and probably over pay or pay more than anyone else to get them because they have deep pockets. This obviously has a ripple effect on everyone else.
Obviously the conspiracy theorists will tell you that senior FED staff are looking at their share portfolios and playing the market. Some have been caught doing just that and got no come back. That's quite shocking if you ask Me.
I have been talking about a currency problem to my friends recently but most seem to think I'm crazy. They don't seem to have a clue. I'm not sure if blissfully unaware is a better way to be right now compared to myself having a little bit more understanding and therefore concern.
ATM said:
I have been talking about a currency problem to my friends recently but most seem to think I'm crazy. They don't seem to have a clue. I'm not sure if blissfully unaware is a better way to be right now compared to myself having a little bit more understanding and therefore concern.
Quite a high proportion of the working age population (those who entered the workforce after 1990 when interest rates peaked at 15%) have only ever really experienced a declining rate environment long-term. I'll only be concerned if reserve banks don't keep inflation expectations anchored or there is a substantial increase in unemployment. I suppose now the UK isn't part of the EU it can just shut off the migration tap to keep unemployment low if it gets above NAIRU, unlike in the financial crisis.speedy_thrills said:
ATM said:
I have been talking about a currency problem to my friends recently but most seem to think I'm crazy. They don't seem to have a clue. I'm not sure if blissfully unaware is a better way to be right now compared to myself having a little bit more understanding and therefore concern.
Quite a high proportion of the working age population (those who entered the workforce after 1990 when interest rates peaked at 15%) have only ever really experienced a declining rate environment long-term. I'll only be concerned if reserve banks don't keep inflation expectations anchored or there is a substantial increase in unemployment. I suppose now the UK isn't part of the EU it can just shut off the migration tap to keep unemployment low if it gets above NAIRU, unlike in the financial crisis.reasonable to substantial interest rate. So I just see the tightening now as a pause before more printing, probably before the end of the year. The FED has been talking about 2% inflation for years but they could just decide to change to 4 or 5% and then they are almost close to target. Anyway whatever the reasons I think the printer will start up again and then more inflation is inevitable or the fight is over and inflation won. Then what? Surely that is the end to some of these currencies.
speedy_thrills said:
ATM said:
speedy_thrills said:
My thoughts are that the FED cares about the real economy (e.g. employment, wages, inflation etc.) and not the stock market or EM debt, for example. In fact until recently the market had tended to be negatively correlated with the economy as stimulus was doing the heavy lifting and not growth.
It is difficult to separate the 2 - stock prices and the real economy (e.g. employment, wages, inflation etc.).My friend works for Nvidia. There are a lot of well paid people working there. Probably because they were all working on the assumption that the share price was justified. So they see the share price going up and therefore the business is valued more and therefore they start employing more people or paying everyone more. The bubble in share price gives them the means or justification to employ talented people even if they have nothing for them to do. Same with Tesla I imagine. I know a recruitment guy who said they are recruiting like crazy for the new plant - is it in Germany. So they will suck all the talented people from the market and probably over pay or pay more than anyone else to get them because they have deep pockets. This obviously has a ripple effect on everyone else.
Obviously the conspiracy theorists will tell you that senior FED staff are looking at their share portfolios and playing the market. Some have been caught doing just that and got no come back. That's quite shocking if you ask Me.
You can’t bail out when you’re already at the edge of bailing out.
I think they’re just tightening quicker to get space to then relax policy when the recession bites.
We know, as we’ve seen it time and again despite all efforts to the contrary, that we have bear markets and recessions.
We see it over and over.
They know they’ll need to stimulate.
Bringing forward the inevitable now, by tightening aggressively (historic tightening over next 30 days), gives room to stimulate after the whole lot crashes… stocks, bonds, real economy etc.
Mr Whippy said:
Greed prolongs the bull run, fear prolongs the bear run.
This. I call it my square wave theory. Reality moves on curves but markets move in steps.Just look, for instance, at the hopeless central banks who started out thinking 0.1% rate increases might tame inflation! Ludicrous.
Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff