Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst

[Jon39]

NowWatchThisDrive said:

In the unlikely event that Gerry is one of the vanishingly few people able to do so*, he's spent a lifetime in the wrong job.

*but who seem surprisingly well represented on PH

Hardly worth it, but have you ever looked at the Share Tips topic?
In there, they will tell you which shares are going to go up, and also what price they will reach in 6 months time.
Remarkable how they can forecast future events. -

That topic (Vol. 2) always used to be on the Finance front page.
It has now slipped to page 5, because no one has posted for some time.
Funny that. Do you think they have lost their money fortune telling ability, now that the market has experienced a wobble ?

[emicen]

Jon39 said:

Hardly worth it, but have you ever looked at the Share Tips topic?
In there, they will tell you which shares are going to go up, and also what price they will reach in 6 months time.
Remarkable how they can forecast future events. -

That topic (Vol. 2) always used to be on the Finance front page.
It has now slipped to page 5, because no one has posted for some time.
Funny that. Do you think they have lost their money fortune telling ability, now that the market has experienced a wobble ?

It’s been replaced by What’s Your Gamble, volume 4, currently immediately below this thread.

[egomeister]

emicen said:

It’s been replaced by What’s Your Gamble, volume 4, currently immediately below this thread.

I'd like to think there is a space for both, share tips for the more serious picks and the gamble thread for playing roulette with aim stcos and meme stocks

[vulture1]

egomeister said:

emicen said:

It’s been replaced by What’s Your Gamble, volume 4, currently immediately below this thread.

I'd like to think there is a space for both, share tips for the more serious picks and the gamble thread for playing roulette with aim stcos and meme stocks

That is how it was for a while but it all ended up in one.

[bitchstewie]

xeny said:

I'd suggest the scenario is pretty carefully planned to minimise any impact from their behaviour. What fraction of their pre GFC assets are they potentially investing over the market timing period under discussion?

There seems to be a lot of examples that help highlight that timing the market is REALLY hard to do consistently on the downside and the upside.

Right Now, But Wrong Later

[Digga]

NowWatchThisDrive said:

ATM said:

bhstewie said:

The Near-Zero Benefit from Timing the Market

I think if Gerry had sold everything at the top, sat on his hands and then bought back in fully when he picked the bottom he would have ended with more money than the other 2 put together.

In the unlikely event that Gerry is one of the vanishingly few people able to do so*, he's spent a lifetime in the wrong job.

*but who seem surprisingly well represented on PH

There is a Bill in my head, masquerading as a Gerry.

Like others here, I am trying to hold my nerve and be a normal Nick.

Although, stopping that maximum monthly ISA payment would free up some money to spunk on another car... but I do think a lot of values may be toppy, given what's going on with EU banking.

[Jon39]

Topic title - 'Stock market is a "fully-fledged epic bubble" and will burst'.

Sometimes a stock market bubble is clearly obvious (1987, 1999 and 2008 were examples), but in the current circumstances, it might be that it is individual sectors/companies that have become overheated.

I only have a very minor involvement with the US market, so know little about it, but I have read here about the new 'wonder' stocks falling in value. I looked up Tesla and saw a market cap of $723 billion (£593 b.)! Mercedes-Benz is €62 billion (£ 53 b.), possibly an appropriate level related to their earnings (in the traditional view).
Is that suggesting Tesla is going to become the dominant manufacturer in the World car market, and Mercedes-Benz will cease to exist ?

There are now quite a few FTSE 100 companies with trailing PEs of around 10 and 12, with yields of 5% and 6%. They have increasing profits.
Maybe those businesses will become cheaper, if an overall stock market crash is coming. We will have to wait and see.

Any observations?

Edited by Jon39 on Wednesday 29th June 08:45

[vulture1]

All the spacs all the us tech that made no money or went to crazy pe ratios. Anything the youtube stock channels pump that the kids follow ie palitir tatoocheff beyond meat , various EV makers nikola, rivian as well as lockdown stocks thst will never recover zoom, Netflix, peleton they are all massive were massive bubble stocks

[ATM]

You dont need to look far to see the Bubbles burst. From 160 peak to 40 now or possibly even 30. More than 75% loss.

A simple trend rule is

- higher highs and higher lows is an up trend
- lower highs and lower lows is a down trend

Anywhere around 140 to 120 you can see the up trend was broken at the beginning of this year. Now I can understand anyone saying they didn't know what would happen after that. But if you were long why would you still hold at that point. The big ugly red bar from 140 to 120 should have been enough of a warning.

[Jambo85]

ATM said:

You dont need to look far to see the Bubbles burst. From 160 peak to 40 now or possibly even 30. More than 75% loss.

A simple trend rule is

- higher highs and higher lows is an up trend
- lower highs and lower lows is a down trend

Anywhere around 140 to 120 you can see the up trend was broken at the beginning of this year. Now I can understand anyone saying they didn't know what would happen after that. But if you were long why would you still hold at that point. The big ugly red bar from 140 to 120 should have been enough of a warning.

But there’s basically the same red bar in about March 2021?

[Digga]

Jambo85 said:

But there’s basically the same red bar in about March 2021?

My thought and observation too.

[Jon39]

Digga said:

Jambo85 said:

But there’s basically the same red bar in about March 2021?

My thought and observation too.

Yes, that does stand out.

Believers in Chartism probably have an explanation or technical words, for that March 2021 (is it a?) sell indicator.
A false negative perhaps, after looking back 2 years.

The only true way of telling whether charts can forecast the future, are actual portfolio performance results, following the use of charts for decision making.

As a way of selling advisor expertise to potential clients though, perhaps an impressive example of possessing special knowledge.

[ATM]

Jambo85 said:

ATM said:

You dont need to look far to see the Bubbles burst. From 160 peak to 40 now or possibly even 30. More than 75% loss.

A simple trend rule is

- higher highs and higher lows is an up trend
- lower highs and lower lows is a down trend

Anywhere around 140 to 120 you can see the up trend was broken at the beginning of this year. Now I can understand anyone saying they didn't know what would happen after that. But if you were long why would you still hold at that point. The big ugly red bar from 140 to 120 should have been enough of a warning.

But there’s basically the same red bar in about March 2021?

No

It stayed above the Previous Low. I have added some black lines. Horizontal lines show the highs and lows. The lines going up or down in between are open to interpretation. Just focus on the highs and lows.

- higher highs and higher lows is an up trend
- lower highs and lower lows is a down trend

So if you are in an uptrend and take out a previous low [by going below it] then you have broken the uptrend. You only enter a down trend if you get a lower high. You could argue there was one at around 100 or another around 90 but I am not trying to demonstrate a down trend here.

Feel free to offer up another chart and I will add the highs and lows. It is not difficult.

[birdcage]

So here's a question.

You have 150k cash sitting in your account which you intend to whack into the S&P.

You are already invested and haven't tried to be smart, it's bonus money from the sale of a house or some such.

Reading everything you can about the short/long term direction of the S&P you feel that there is still room for it to fall, possibly 15/20% and you certainly don't think its going to leap up with any sustainability in the next 6 month surely rather than timing the market you are being prudent.

I know it's losing 10% to inflation but only over a six month period not forever and its psychologically less damaging to see it stay in cash than being depleted in swings of 3% a day.

[Carbon Sasquatch]

birdcage said:

I know it's losing 10% to inflation but only over a six month period not forever and its psychologically less damaging to see it stay in cash than being depleted in swings of 3% a day.

People keep saying things like this - and it really isn't losing anything to inflation if the destination is always the S&P.

It's only losing to inflation if it's going to be spent on something that is going up in price at the rate of inflation.

As for timing the market - you only have to go back a page or two for that debate.

[gotoPzero]

birdcage said:

So here's a question.

You have 150k cash sitting in your account which you intend to whack into the S&P.

You are already invested and haven't tried to be smart, it's bonus money from the sale of a house or some such.

Reading everything you can about the short/long term direction of the S&P you feel that there is still room for it to fall, possibly 15/20% and you certainly don't think its going to leap up with any sustainability in the next 6 month surely rather than timing the market you are being prudent.

I know it's losing 10% to inflation but only over a six month period not forever and its psychologically less damaging to see it stay in cash than being depleted in swings of 3% a day.


I started a thread about this recently as I am in a similar position.

I am just waiting it out for now. If it gets sub 3000 I will probably start to drip in.

I think its a gamble worth taking right now to wait for a while.

[Jon39]

ATM said:

Feel free to offer up another chart and I will add the highs and lows. It is not difficult.

I would be grateful if you could please do a chart for BATS.L

Thank you.

[Mr Overheads]

birdcage said:

So here's a question.

You have 150k cash sitting in your account which you intend to whack into the S&P.

You are already invested and haven't tried to be smart, it's bonus money from the sale of a house or some such.

Reading everything you can about the short/long term direction of the S&P you feel that there is still room for it to fall, possibly 15/20% and you certainly don't think its going to leap up with any sustainability in the next 6 month surely rather than timing the market you are being prudent.

I know it's losing 10% to inflation but only over a six month period not forever and its psychologically less damaging to see it stay in cash than being depleted in swings of 3% a day.

I would put in £2500 a week for the next 15mths. But use Enhanced Dollar Cost Averaging. So if the S&P500 is up on last week put in £2000, if it'sdown put in £3000. That way you catch more value in the dips and EDCA outperforms DCA in 80% (DYOR on that percentage) of scenarios.

Edited by Mr Overheads on Friday 1st July 12:27

[birdcage]

[quote=Mr Overheads][quote=birdcage]So here's a question.

You have 150k cash sitting in your account which you intend to whack into the S&P.

You are already invested and haven't tried to be smart, it's bonus money from the sale of a house or some such.

Reading everything you can about the short/long term direction of the S&P you feel that there is still room for it to fall, possibly 15/20% and you certainly don't think its going to leap up with any sustainability in the next 6 month surely rather than timing the market you are being prudent.

I know it's losing 10% to inflation but only over a six month period not forever and its psychologically less damaging to see it stay in cash than being depleted in swings of 3% a day.

I would put in £2500 a week for the next 15mths. But use Enhanced Dollar Cost Averaging. So if the S&P500 is up on last week put in £2000, if it'sdown put in £3000. That way you catch more value in the dips and EDCA outperforms DCA in 80% (DYOR on that percentage) of scenarios.


Thank you for the reply sounds sensible!

[ATM]

Jon39 said:

I would be grateful if you could please do a chart for BATS.L

Thank you.

Clear uptrend

Previous High became previous Low just above 3400 - long black line

I added some smaller less obvious high / low in purple but for now you need to focus on the big black line because if price gets below there you have taken out the previous low

Some would argue it needs to close below this line as this is a weekly chart and therefore during a single week it could dip below there and rebound above again and this would not be taking out the low but testing it or rebounding from it depending on what happens next