What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)

[P155flaps]

Derek Chevalier said:

P155flaps said:

I do think despite the odd day up trend is another 15-20% down from here in general and that anything with a PE of 25 or over is a sitting duck for biggest % fall on any missed guidance. So will start looking at earnings and shorting any that look shakey. The old buy and hold strategy doesn’t seem to stack up at mo.

I don't see how a buy and hold strategy for a globally diversified portfolio isn't working?

As in more to be made (well I have in last week anyway) picking some selective shorts than sitting on globally diversified portfolio.

Although longer term it’s the way to go.

[g4ry13]

I am surprisingly in profit on my AMD purchase from yesterday. I'm also wondering whether it's a good time to buy more gun stocks. With inflation and things getting more expensive some people may decide to beef up on personal security.

[ferrisbueller]

g4ry13 said:

I am surprisingly in profit on my AMD purchase from yesterday. I'm also wondering whether it's a good time to buy more gun stocks. With inflation and things getting more expensive some people may decide to beef up on personal security.

Or seek alternative means of income. Win-win.

[Vanity Projects]

I’m riding this out well as positioned for the collapse but not with many shorts (trading in a SIPP).

I do the odd daily 3x leverage short etf as it limits the drawdown if I’m wrong but so far have been right.

Currently have £3k on a 3x Inverse Arkk but I’m much more concerned about drawdown control so I have capital to buy at the bottom so I’m not taking the pissflaps levels of risk tolerance (my wife would kill me and I’d be very upset at myself too if it went to poop).

If today ends out where it is I’m up 20% on nasdaq and 5% versus SPX, considering where I started from (horrifying mess after starting self managing pension in November) I’m happy with that.

Would still have been outperformed by a ftse tracker though

Baseline is arbitrary date in November ‘21 when I got access to my SIPP.

[vulture1]

Anyone shorted Disney? I thought and chickened out of it. results in the next few mins, I predict alot of canceled disney plus numbers,

Edited to add was wrong. Subscriptions up slightly.

Edited by vulture1 on Wednesday 11th May 21:44

[P155flaps]

vulture1 said:

Anyone shorted Disney? I thought and chickened out of it. results in the next few mins, I predict alot of canceled disney plus numbers,

I actually did opposite as it was on my watch list with a target re-entry price of $105<, in before old at $160.

Target was if Disney get backs to $105 or below start rebuying as a long term hold. Got there quicker than expected so put 1/10 of what I have ear marked for a long term hold on it.

So I actually did a straight buy on Disney at $105 as I had a felling their results may be better than expected. Rationale being;

- Wife and kids cancelled all other on demand subs bar that one (others we know same). So I thought it would be level or increase and def not fall.
- We are off there at xmas and prices have escalated and hotel is still fully booked.
- Loads of block busters due out over summer so next 2 sets of results should get a boost.

I will still be daily shorting most other stuff for now (opened NIO earlier) and for now Disney is my first re-entry as a hold.

[P155flaps]

Vanity Projects said:

I’m riding this out well as positioned for the collapse but not with many shorts (trading in a SIPP).

I do the odd daily 3x leverage short etf as it limits the drawdown if I’m wrong but so far have been right.

Currently have £3k on a 3x Inverse Arkk but I’m much more concerned about drawdown control so I have capital to buy at the bottom so I’m not taking the pissflaps levels of risk tolerance (my wife would kill me and I’d be very upset at myself too if it went to poop).

If today ends out where it is I’m up 20% on nasdaq and 5% versus SPX, considering where I started from (horrifying mess after starting self managing pension in November) I’m happy with that.

Would still have been outperformed by a ftse tracker though

Baseline is arbitrary date in November ‘21 when I got access to my SIPP.

Nicely done / good skills I do same with our SIPPS and ISA's to keep me out of trouble (or in it :-))

Had some massive gains, massive losses and massive misses (Avis at $12 average and selling at $40 still haunts me more than fact I was buying BTC at £200 and mining 10k doge a day and got bored back in 2014)

So I know the painful journey you have been on well.

[petemurphy]

Thoughts on RR at the mo they have trading update out this morning

[Earl of Hazzard]

petemurphy said:

Thoughts on RR at the mo they have trading update out this morning

Deffo back on my radar...
Good lth me thinks

[vulture1]

Hold and forget for RR.

The days of buy anything and make 10% are wll and truly over on here its more likely to be the other way around.

[Mr Overheads]

Disney looks like good value for long term hold now, just a shame they don't pay dividends currently and historically only just over 1% if they re-instate them at all. That might hamper growth as investors look for shares that pay an income.

[Luke.]

Anyone buying ARVL at the mo?

Down to $1.45 from the heady heights of $30 just over a year ago.

I like what they do and they've just had a good earning's report earlier in the week. Plus, they're on track with production later in the year.

Anything I'm missing here?

[Derek Chevalier]

P155flaps said:

Derek Chevalier said:

P155flaps said:

I do think despite the odd day up trend is another 15-20% down from here in general and that anything with a PE of 25 or over is a sitting duck for biggest % fall on any missed guidance. So will start looking at earnings and shorting any that look shakey. The old buy and hold strategy doesn’t seem to stack up at mo.

I don't see how a buy and hold strategy for a globally diversified portfolio isn't working?

As in more to be made (well I have in last week anyway) picking some selective shorts than sitting on globally diversified portfolio.

Although longer term it’s the way to go.

Ah OK. It's interesting how the market tends to react in different "regimes". Not too long ago, the market had no issue with "jam tomorrow" stocks on high multiples, but things can change very quickly.

[ferrisbueller]

Luke. said:

Anyone buying ARVL at the mo?

Down to $1.45 from the heady heights of $30 just over a year ago.

I like what they do and they've just had a good earning's report earlier in the week. Plus, they're on track with production later in the year.

Anything I'm missing here?

I'm bag holding at about $6 avg.

[Luke.]

ferrisbueller said:

Luke. said:

Anyone buying ARVL at the mo?

Down to $1.45 from the heady heights of $30 just over a year ago.

I like what they do and they've just had a good earning's report earlier in the week. Plus, they're on track with production later in the year.

Anything I'm missing here?

I'm bag holding at about $6 avg.

Not tempted to average down?

[Adam.]

was ARVL as SPAC that bought it out in Nov 2020?

Looking at SP it seems so, which makes $30 a hyped post-SPAC number.

[ferrisbueller]

Luke. said:

ferrisbueller said:

Luke. said:

Anyone buying ARVL at the mo?

Down to $1.45 from the heady heights of $30 just over a year ago.

I like what they do and they've just had a good earning's report earlier in the week. Plus, they're on track with production later in the year.

Anything I'm missing here?

I'm bag holding at about $6 avg.

Not tempted to average down?

No headroom in my ISA. Might buy some in my trading account. It was a along term hold for me but, yes, there's some temptation to add but I've been waiting for the general slide to slow/halt to assess other options. Their update was generally positive, just need some production ramp and letters of interest converted into actual revenues. Bus is certified, Van just about through that process, too. It seems all the elements are in place, just need to execute.

Also pondering GGPI, which I'm in at about $11.

[ferrisbueller]

Adam. said:

was ARVL as SPAC that bought it out in Nov 2020?

Looking at SP it seems so, which makes $30 a hyped post-SPAC number.

Yes, it was a SPAC. $30 was pre-dilution, also.

[Turkish91]

ferrisbueller said:

Luke. said:

Anyone buying ARVL at the mo?

Down to $1.45 from the heady heights of $30 just over a year ago.

I like what they do and they've just had a good earning's report earlier in the week. Plus, they're on track with production later in the year.

Anything I'm missing here?

I'm bag holding at about $6 avg.

$3.60 avg here. Considering adding more but not sure yet.

[Luke.]

Adam. said:

was ARVL as SPAC that bought it out in Nov 2020?

Looking at SP it seems so, which makes $30 a hyped post-SPAC number.

Hype aside, at it's current price the SP looks undervalued to me.