What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)

What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)

Author
Discussion

ferrisbueller

29,327 posts

227 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
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Aiminghigh123 said:
So the Mexican had approval!!!

Going to the moon? (LSE quote. I would never use such language.)
One condition was a rights issue within 12 months. Per above perhaps some sort term gains followed by a dilution.

Edited by ferrisbueller on Tuesday 24th May 08:26

Aiminghigh123

2,720 posts

69 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
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I made a good chunk last year so sitting out but curious to see the long term future for it. I thought it was done last year when I got out!!

Vanity Projects

2,442 posts

161 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
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vulture1 said:
Adam. said:
vulture1 said:
I'm not sure whether to keep it as a longer term play rather than trade it. Could give good divs for a while. Just reinvest the fiv a month or so after the div ex date as they always seem to fall off after it. Or sell the day before and buy back in... not really sure what my plan is
With current shipping inflation ot makes more money than it knows what to do with hence the huge divis.

Doesn’t it just rise by the div to cum div date, and fall back by div thereafter
Most shares iv noticed seem to drop off very heavily after ex div day. seems a lot of people think they can buy bank the div and hope it doesnt fall but it almost always does.
Star Bulk dropped heavily after dividend (as you'd expect given they gave a way a massive chunk of money out of the bank) but it recovered quickly, perhaps in the recognition that shipping is printing away merrily while ever the backlogs in shipping go on.

The danger with the shipping models (perhaps they learned form Covid) that they end up with little in reserve if recession hits and demand for goods (and therefore ships) craters. Even with China shut, they still get paid to park off the coast, so they almost can't lose money.

I think the biggest risk for them in the short term is the wider index dropping and people being forced to sell as margin calls come knocking for other things.

I'm out of them for now but will be adding them when I think the market has stopped dropping as they'll be a great cyclical stock to jump back into...shippping isn't going anywhere, fuel crisis or no fuel crisis.

Also, SIGA is up 7% after hours so I might only end up 12-15% under water biggrin - I wish a pox on all of you (fingers crossed).

Skyedriver

17,850 posts

282 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
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Vanity Projects said:
- I wish a pox on all of you (fingers crossed).

Vanity Projects

2,442 posts

161 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
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Skyedriver said:
Vanity Projects said:
- I wish a pox on all of you (fingers crossed).
biggrin

You get to keep your money when you go to hell, right?

Skyedriver

17,850 posts

282 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
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Skyedriver said:
Yes, had a very quick in and out at 8.00 Profit's a profit but I left too much on the table, should have held a further few minutes

Edit: now dropping and lower than I sold. Expect a second rise shortly I suspect but not sure I'm brave enough.

Edited by Skyedriver on Tuesday 24th May 08:19
I was brave (foolhardy some might say) and went back in. I could have actually got out with a second, albeit very small profit but I hung on in for greater things. It dropped back.

Edited by Skyedriver on Tuesday 24th May 14:49

Skyedriver

17,850 posts

282 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
quotequote all
Skyedriver said:
I was brave (foolhardy some might say) and went back in. I could have actually got out with a second, albeit very small profit but I hung on in for greater things. It dropped back.

Edited by Skyedriver on Tuesday 24th May 14:49
Should have stopped in bed.
The second buy in has stagnated now at a small loss.
In my enthusiasm I bought back into THG which has promptly slipped back a little
And bought in, out, in, out and back in again for the third time with SNG. Bit like the Hokey Cokey....except I'm currently down there too.

egomeister

6,700 posts

263 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
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Skyedriver said:
Should have stopped in bed.
The second buy in has stagnated now at a small loss.
In my enthusiasm I bought back into THG which has promptly slipped back a little
And bought in, out, in, out and back in again for the third time with SNG. Bit like the Hokey Cokey....except I'm currently down there too.
Any TED? You've bought everything else from your hypothetical 1k question last night!

speedy_thrills

7,760 posts

243 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
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Anyone purchased any of that stranded Ukrainian grain yet? It always seems like in any situation where there is a fundamental market issue (e.g. oil for less than $0) someone works out how to make a killing.

GPH

648 posts

117 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
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Skyedriver said:
Skyedriver said:
I was brave (foolhardy some might say) and went back in. I could have actually got out with a second, albeit very small profit but I hung on in for greater things. It dropped back.

Edited by Skyedriver on Tuesday 24th May 14:49
Should have stopped in bed.
The second buy in has stagnated now at a small loss.
In my enthusiasm I bought back into THG which has promptly slipped back a little
And bought in, out, in, out and back in again for the third time with SNG. Bit like the Hokey Cokey....except I'm currently down there too.
I still don't understand the blind enthusiasm for AMGO on the LSE board knowing a massive devaluation is coming?
The share was already way overpriced before the hearing but they are moaning why has it not burst through 10p etc.

The long suffering shareholders seem to be expecting it to be worth the 50p+ (when relending starts) that was talked about a year or 2 ago but that was before the FSA agreement to dilute the current shareholders to only 5% of the company!

There is going to be a big share issue to try and raise money (to give interest payments back to customers who happily took the loans) so that will have to be at a massive discount and which point todays high price will be a distant memory!

After all that and after they get the go ahead to start relending then the SP might start going above 10p if the company can be shown to be making money again

Skyedriver

17,850 posts

282 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
quotequote all
egomeister said:
Skyedriver said:
Should have stopped in bed.
The second buy in has stagnated now at a small loss.
In my enthusiasm I bought back into THG which has promptly slipped back a little
And bought in, out, in, out and back in again for the third time with SNG. Bit like the Hokey Cokey....except I'm currently down there too.
Any TED? You've bought everything else from your hypothetical 1k question last night!
Ha ha, No, I left TED in bed.
Fully out of AMGO again nice profit first thing, broke even second time around

Skyedriver

17,850 posts

282 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
quotequote all
GPH said:
I still don't understand the blind enthusiasm for AMGO on the LSE board knowing a massive devaluation is coming?
The share was already way overpriced before the hearing but they are moaning why has it not burst through 10p etc.

The long suffering shareholders seem to be expecting it to be worth the 50p+ (when relending starts) that was talked about a year or 2 ago but that was before the FSA agreement to dilute the current shareholders to only 5% of the company!

There is going to be a big share issue to try and raise money (to give interest payments back to customers who happily took the loans) so that will have to be at a massive discount and which point todays high price will be a distant memory!

After all that and after they get the go ahead to start relending then the SP might start going above 10p if the company can be shown to be making money again
Oh, agree but I was pretty sure there'd be a surge first thing this morning so got in as quickly as HL would allow and took profits a very short while later. Should have rode the wave longer with hindsight, profit could have been much bigger but happy enough with what I got. (Broke even second time around).

Vanity Projects

2,442 posts

161 months

Tuesday 24th May 2022
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speedy_thrills said:
Anyone purchased any of that stranded Ukrainian grain yet? It always seems like in any situation where there is a fundamental market issue (e.g. oil for less than $0) someone works out how to make a killing.
I bought it in Feb, thanks to an article on Zerohedge and sold at the first mini peak (which seemed huge at the time) then Putin rolled the tanks and mayhem ensued.

No idea if it will run or not, Kissinger saying let Putin keep land so that might end things sooner than we think.



I was watching corn too as the lack of fertilizer has pushed US farmers to soybeans that require less fertilizer but I don’t know if that will ramp corn prices through the roof or not.

Skyedriver

17,850 posts

282 months

Wednesday 25th May 2022
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Sanity returning to the AMGO SP I see.

Clothing retail seems to be slipping with the likes of BOO, NXT & TED sliding (despite the stories behind TED & the poss sale). Even WOSG continuing south despite their goods being touted as a good hedge against inflation etc and rising steadily over the last couple of years.

Does no one care about the environment any more, I see the likes of EMH, ZNWD, EQT, CWR, PHE etc sliding down over the last few months.




Edited by Skyedriver on Wednesday 25th May 11:07

ferrisbueller

29,327 posts

227 months

Wednesday 25th May 2022
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I think it's easier to list what hasn't slid!

I've added more Alphabet to my pension pot this week.

Waiting to add more Dividend stuff if the opportunity arises.

Gambling brought into stark focus lately, though I have added some EUA for a bit of good old averaging down but as we've discussed that feels like an all or nothing now.

g4ry13

16,985 posts

255 months

Wednesday 25th May 2022
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Following yet another mass shooting in the USA, Smith and Wesson appears to be up 8%

I honestly don't get why the shares are going up when people are calling for more gun control.

TCX

1,976 posts

55 months

Wednesday 25th May 2022
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g4ry13 said:
Following yet another mass shooting in the USA, Smith and Wesson appears to be up 8%

I honestly don't get why the shares are going up when people are calling for more gun control.
Because....gun control won't happen,n more people will buy more guns,to be ready for the other people with guns

lrdisco

1,450 posts

87 months

Wednesday 25th May 2022
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Holiday let’s in costal towns in East Yorkshire.

vulture1

12,220 posts

179 months

Wednesday 25th May 2022
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TCX said:
g4ry13 said:
Following yet another mass shooting in the USA, Smith and Wesson appears to be up 8%

I honestly don't get why the shares are going up when people are calling for more gun control.
Because....gun control won't happen,n more people will buy more guns,to be ready for the other people with guns
No such thing as bad advertising... Very sad indeed how that country view guns.

ferrisbueller

29,327 posts

227 months

Wednesday 25th May 2022
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GGPI Merger vote set for June 22nd. No great reaction from the market.