What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)

[Mr Whippy]

MikeStroud said:

Mr Whippy said:

I think you’re right but this wasn’t natural market dynamics.

Government policy on covid, then energy generally, and sanctions on Russia, have all provided this environment for a windfall, despite the sanctions in all those areas largely being a net negative on society.

It’d be tremendously unfair to sit there watching society take a hit by government policy to “make the world a better place”TM while you then said “ah but these were the tax rules so you can’t change them blah blah”

2007-2008, fine. But now? Really?

I guarantee that had sanctions, covid etc resulted in those companies making big losses you would not be advocating bailing them out.

I’ve not yet heard anyone sympathising with bp and handing them money when they made losses in the previous year.

We’ll I think you’ll agree this is the difficulty of living in a non socialist or non free market economy.

While government and central banks choose and legislate winners and losers, you’ll never win.


Really it comes down to the privatise profit, socialise debt angle.
Is the public paying a disproportionate price for something they have had little choice over, in effect imposed by their own government?

Should a private enterprise profit from that?

It sounds a bit like crony capitalism to me.

[Adam.]

ferrisbueller said:

GGPI Merger vote set for June 22nd. No great reaction from the market.

I dumped all my GGPI, the reaction to the merger confirmation has been non-existent, so I think it might tank once the $10 floor is removed, like all other US tech. Has been protected up to now

Put it all into ZIM (now my largest holding due to EUA fiasco), 4% qtrly div due in a week

of course SP may well fall 4% day after div day

Edited by Adam. on Thursday 26th May 16:35

[ferrisbueller]

Mr Whippy said:

MikeStroud said:

Mr Whippy said:

I think you’re right but this wasn’t natural market dynamics.

Government policy on covid, then energy generally, and sanctions on Russia, have all provided this environment for a windfall, despite the sanctions in all those areas largely being a net negative on society.

It’d be tremendously unfair to sit there watching society take a hit by government policy to “make the world a better place”TM while you then said “ah but these were the tax rules so you can’t change them blah blah”

2007-2008, fine. But now? Really?

I guarantee that had sanctions, covid etc resulted in those companies making big losses you would not be advocating bailing them out.

I’ve not yet heard anyone sympathising with bp and handing them money when they made losses in the previous year.

We’ll I think you’ll agree this is the difficulty of living in a non socialist or non free market economy.

While government and central banks choose and legislate winners and losers, you’ll never win.


Really it comes down to the privatise profit, socialise debt angle.
Is the public paying a disproportionate price for something they have had little choice over, in effect imposed by their own government?

Should a private enterprise profit from that?

It sounds a bit like crony capitalism to me.

So the energy companies colluded with Putin on the invasion of Ukraine so they could cash in? These same energy companies who are evolving inline with policy and spending billions to do so. As above, I hope they can reinvest everything in their evolution to minimise the money grab. Yes, we have a societal issue with affordability, but why take the energy cap off and exacerbate that?

Per above, PPE contracts might align with your conspiracy theories, but the energy companies bit is a stretch.

I don't know how prices are set for individual stations, but who is it that decides that my local Tesco charges 3p a litre more than the one 8 miles away? Do Shell define the pricing for all of their franchises? Who is making sure that they're not profiteering?

A political agenda which provides a soft target shouldn't legitimise a money grab. Is Rishi going to layout exactly what the government deems to be an acceptable profit across all business in all sectors in all conditions?

The wealth tax is a similar ploy. Sorry Mr&Mrs Smith, your life long sacrifices and sound choices mean you've accrued more wealth than we deem acceptable so we're going to have to come and take that off you.

[ferrisbueller]

Adam. said:

ferrisbueller said:

GGPI Merger vote set for June 22nd. No great reaction from the market.

I dumped all my GGPI, the reaction to the merger confirmation has been non-existent, so I think it might tank once the $10 floor is removed, like all other US tech. Has been protected up to now

Put it all into ZIM (now my largest holding due to EUA fiasco), 4% qtrly div due in a week

of course SP may well fall 4% day after div day

Edited by Adam. on Thursday 26th May 16:35

I don't disagree with the logic. I'm waiting to see what happens over the next few weeks. 10.3 vs 10 isn't a great difference right now. And some of mine are in the green just now.

[Luke.]

Sold a chunk of GGPI today. Fairly disappointing how the SP reacted to the merger date being confirmed. Piled it into ARVL.

[ferrisbueller]

Luke. said:

Sold a chunk of GGPI today. Fairly disappointing how the SP reacted to the merger date being confirmed. Piled it into ARVL.

I think it's the vote that has been confirmed, not the merger? I may have missed something though.

[Adam.]

ferrisbueller said:

I think it's the vote that has been confirmed, not the merger? I may have missed something though.

Any reason to suspect the vote won’t fly through so it amounts to then same thing ?

[ferrisbueller]

Adam. said:

ferrisbueller said:

I think it's the vote that has been confirmed, not the merger? I may have missed something though.

Any reason to suspect the vote won’t fly through so it amounts to then same thing ?

No, but things like the redemption rate can obviously make a difference and there's always some risk until it's done.

[Luke.]

Adam. said:

ferrisbueller said:

GGPI Merger vote set for June 22nd. No great reaction from the market.

I dumped all my GGPI, the reaction to the merger confirmation has been non-existent, so I think it might tank once the $10 floor is removed, like all other US tech. Has been protected up to now

Put it all into ZIM (now my largest holding due to EUA fiasco), 4% qtrly div due in a week

of course SP may well fall 4% day after div day

Edited by Adam. on Thursday 26th May 16:35

Only just spotted your post, Adam. Odd isn't how it's become just a damp squib? Don't really understand it in all honesty.

[Adam.]

Luke. said:

Only just spotted your post, Adam. Odd isn't how it's become just a damp squib? Don't really understand it in all honesty.

Wasn't happy to sell, lost 33%

It’s a good company with a good product but the reality is it is due to make lots of losses IMO

Given increasing interest rates loss making companies are not going to be popular, plus daft EPS valuations on tech / EV stuff

I fear it would have gone to $7-8 without the buffer, I was hoping for a spike to prove there was some mood momentum, but there doesn’t seem to be

[Skyedriver]

OK, so what next?
Any company making a profit deemed unacceptable pays a windfall tax? The banks, supermarkets, legal professionals, houses builders? Thin end of the wedge, who decide what is excessive, who fixes the percentage?
And now the fuel companies will just increase prices to cover their losses that happen in leaner times and make adjustments in their accounts.
Meanwhile prices rise still and inflation rates escalate.
And maybe the likes of BP and Shell move off shore taking their accountancy base, senior staff and the taxes they could be paying in the UK elsewhere.
End of Rant.

[Adam.]

Quite right from a business and economic rationale, but this is a political decision.

And frankly given the ststorm hitting the U.K. populace it would be political suicide not to do this, so I understand why they have.

[Skyedriver]

Adam. said:

Quite right from a business and economic rationale, but this is a political decision.

And frankly given the ststorm hitting the U.K. populace it would be political suicide not to do this, so I understand why they have.

A political to take some of the heat off the current incumbents who have brought some of the ststorm upon themselves by sheer blatant disregard for their own "rules". i accept the current inflation rates are not directly of their making.
However what they are now implementing is a short term fix to appease the general public which will, I'm sure, have long term consequences. This is no political argument I'm putting forward, the other major political parties have already demanded a "windfall tax" but they can demand at will as they actually have no real power unlike the elected government.
Like the furlough scheme during the CV19 pandemic, which was abused by a proportion of corporations, businesses and staff, we will all have to pay for it eventually some more than others I suspect.

[SimonTheSailor]

Anybody been brave enough to top up on EUA ? With an appointment of somebody to see the sale through they must still be wanting to achieve this and have somebody waiting ?

[FishAndChips]

SimonTheSailor said:

Anybody been brave enough to top up on EUA ? With an appointment of somebody to see the sale through they must still be wanting to achieve this and have somebody waiting ?

Not me, I'm already knuckle deep as it is. Watching from the side lines now.

[SimonTheSailor]

FishAndChips said:

SimonTheSailor said:

Anybody been brave enough to top up on EUA ? With an appointment of somebody to see the sale through they must still be wanting to achieve this and have somebody waiting ?

Not me, I'm already knuckle deep as it is. Watching from the side lines now.

Me too.
Think I'll do the same.

[Vanity Projects]

Not in EUA, I got in and out quickly on it, I’ve still got POLY and I bought some capita pre the bounce last week which was a bit of a fluke.

SIGA can up 40% again on Friday but I’m still underwater a bit on it.

[Skyedriver]

EQT:RNS: Positive report on their process & end product from French research Lab.

[Adam.]

SimonTheSailor said:

Anybody been brave enough to top up on EUA ? With an appointment of somebody to see the sale through they must still be wanting to achieve this and have somebody waiting ?

I think it’s a decent risk/reward at current price

Unfortunately my average is x3 the current price

[FishAndChips]

Skyedriver said:

EQT:RNS: Positive report on their process & end product from French research Lab.

Was expecting to see a bigger rise on this news.