What’s your big gamble? (Volume 4)

[g4ry13]

I had some inside info last week about a company making an announcement. I didn't trade it though as i'm a good boy

They're down over 30% today.

[JuanCarlosFandango]

g4ry13 said:

What reason would they have for doing so?

The Central Bank is willing to stand behind them and will pour as much money in as needed.

There's a reason I don't run a massive bank, even badly. I suppose as with any big complicated organisation if they could sell the profitable bits to raise capital and focus resources on strengthening the core business.

[Chris Type R]

g4ry13 said:

I had some inside info last week about a company making an announcement. I didn't trade it though as i'm a good boy

They're down over 30% today.

Was the expectation that they'd be up or down* ?

( * yes is not an acceptable answer )

[g4ry13]

Chris Type R said:

g4ry13 said:

I had some inside info last week about a company making an announcement. I didn't trade it though as i'm a good boy

They're down over 30% today.

Was the expectation that they'd be up or down* ?

( * yes is not an acceptable answer )

I knew it was bad news for the business and if the market behaved correctly they would drop.

[Chris Type R]

Sold out of ZIM as I didn't really have enough in to take an interest over the coming weeks. Booked another £100 of profit - only profit I'm likely to see this week.

[vulture1]

Chris Type R said:

Sold out of ZIM as I didn't really have enough in to take an interest over the coming weeks. Booked another £100 of profit - only profit I'm likely to see this week.

One bet I would make is that zim will rise up to the div date as everyone thinks they can collect the div and sell before it drops. Even though it will drop by at least the div ammount before they can sell.

[Adam.]

vulture1 said:

One bet I would make is that zim will rise up to the div date as everyone thinks they can collect the div and sell before it drops. Even though it will drop by at least the div ammount before they can sell.

It should sell by exactly the dividend on the day of the dividend - stands to reason.

Everyone knows now what the div is. Surely it just spikes just before the div date and then drops immediately after div rights expire? Otherwise everyone would sell on the peak of the rise cum div before the cut off and buy back ex div

Edited by Adam. on Friday 17th March 00:41

[Chris Type R]

vulture1 said:

Chris Type R said:

Sold out of ZIM as I didn't really have enough in to take an interest over the coming weeks. Booked another £100 of profit - only profit I'm likely to see this week.

One bet I would make is that zim will rise up to the div date as everyone thinks they can collect the div and sell before it drops. Even though it will drop by at least the div ammount before they can sell.

I think that's a sound strategy. For me, the money 'invested' doesn't warrant the risk and distraction - I only had the gains from my previous trade in the game.

[Adam.]

Chris Type R said:

Covered here - https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/in...

But not sure it applies - https://ibkr.info/article/3043

Did you ever get to the bottom of this for ZIM? The IBKR article implies I can sell before ex-div date on 4th April, but payment date is 3rd April !?!?!?

Now totally confused - I might sell before the 24th just in case

[Chris Type R]

Adam. said:

Chris Type R said:

Covered here - https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/in...

But not sure it applies - https://ibkr.info/article/3043

Did you ever get to the bottom of this for ZIM? The IBKR article implies I can sell before ex-div date on 4th April, but payment date is 3rd April !?!?!?

Now totally confused - I might sell before the 24th just in case

I didn't. If indeed ex div follows payment which is unclear, but I think is more likely the case than not.... then possibly we might see a price drop on the 24th where a number of PIs sell out, with the price dropping, triggering stop losses etc - I'm not sure how much chance there is of this happening, but if it does, there might be a nice little discount there.

[Miocene]

Chris Type R said:

I didn't. If indeed ex div follows payment which is unclear, but I think is more likely the case than not.... then possibly we might see a price drop on the 24th where a number of PIs sell out, with the price dropping, triggering stop losses etc - I'm not sure how much chance there is of this happening, but if it does, there might be a nice little discount there.

That's how I've interpreted it at least. Don't have a lot at stake, but now considering holding longer term.

[Adam.]

Miocene said:

That's how I've interpreted it at least. Don't have a lot at stake, but now considering holding longer term.

Me too - this is worth a read:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4587830-zim-stock...

Selling before ex-div for me is just a tax trade as I have quite a large position. I will buy back ex-div and essentially taking a $6.40 cap gain rather than $6.40 cash div

[g4ry13]

Not sure if this helps regarding ZIM dividend. It's from that Stocktwits board:

stu204 said:

because the dividend payout was greater than 25% of the opening price today, special rules apply that ex dividend date is a day after payout date, so April 4th, if you sell before ex dividend date they'll take back your dividend payout on April 3rd.

NYSE rules, ZIM is so awesome it's just made me go long, while cheering shorties on to drive price down to get us all future discounts & I'm doing nothing but loading up more & more.

[Chris Type R]

BBC News - Credit Suisse bank: UBS is in talks to take over its troubled rival
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65004605

Not looking good for Credit Suisse shareholders.

[vulture1]

Chris Type R said:

BBC News - Credit Suisse bank: UBS is in talks to take over its troubled rival
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65004605

Not looking good for Credit Suisse shareholders.

Everyone involved with credit suissepicous should be banned from ever working in the financial sector for 10 years. They will all jsut jump ship and make money/problems elsewhere.
Using this as a severe punishment for the people making riskier trades should deter others from being so blaza

[egomeister]

Chris Type R said:

BBC News - Credit Suisse bank: UBS is in talks to take over its troubled rival
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65004605

Not looking good for Credit Suisse shareholders.

Not looking good for UBS shareholders either

[Matt p]

Not everyone in CS is a bad apple. Easier to blame everyone than just the rotten few that have fked the company. I feel for the people that have been there for 20+ years who are worried about their futures.

This whole thing stinks of 2008 all over again. It’ll be rinse and repeat in another 15-20 years.

[Gargamel]

egomeister said:

Not looking good for UBS shareholders either

Not so bad if your Government guarantees your first 10bn in losses and agrees to lend you $100bn if you need it.

[Chris Type R]

Gargamel said:

egomeister said:

Not looking good for UBS shareholders either

Not so bad if your Government guarantees your first 10bn in losses and agrees to lend you $100bn if you need it.

It does seem that everything is being thrown at 'failing' banks to avoid a melt-down.

[MrManual]

Will this mean job losses? Surely UBS buying Credit Suisse is better than letting them fail?