S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?

[g4ry13]

AllyM said:

2nd April is tariff day.

They're already walking it back. It's getting a tad annoying with the flip flopping.

[Panamax]

g4ry13 said:

They're already walking it back. It's getting a tad annoying with the flip flopping.

Panamax said:

IMO from the current position and looking at Trump's capriciousness the best thing to expect going forward from here is volatility.

[AllyM]

g4ry13 said:

They're already walking it back. It's getting a tad annoying with the flip flopping.

Lutnick was certainly gassing about it just yesterday at the cabinet meeting. “America’s Liberation day”…

[S1MMA]

Alickadoo said:

Well, if you had stayed in the S&P500, you would be up around 13%.

Is that what you did?

I stayed in, agreed you can't time the market, and using a DCA method with sticking more in if you can during dips is the way to go long term.

Interesting seeing the recent dip, hasn't changed my view and I'm not responding to it.

[ferrisbueller]

S1MMA said:

Alickadoo said:

Well, if you had stayed in the S&P500, you would be up around 13%.

Is that what you did?

I stayed in, agreed you can't time the market, and using a DCA method with sticking more in if you can during dips is the way to go long term.

Interesting seeing the recent dip, hasn't changed my view and I'm not responding to it.

Rightly or wrongly, I'm still sat at 50% cash, whilst DCA'ing a small amount in monthly into ETFs.

[Crudeoink]

I sold a significant proportion of my holding yesterday. Held at 4.6% in a cash ISA for the time being. It all just feels a bit to risky at the moment with all this talk of Tariffs, recession and massive debt piles

[anonymous-user]

Crudeoink said:

I sold a significant proportion of my holding yesterday. Held at 4.6% in a cash ISA for the time being. It all just feels a bit to risky at the moment with all this talk of Tariffs, recession and massive debt piles

When would you consider going back in? I'm pretty relaxed with it, the market will price in 2 April outcome, doubt there'll be anything unexpected. Perhaps some short term vol w1/2 of Apr but I expect it to be business as usual.

[toon10]

Crudeoink said:

I sold a significant proportion of my holding yesterday. Held at 4.6% in a cash ISA for the time being. It all just feels a bit to risky at the moment with all this talk of Tariffs, recession and massive debt piles

I did the opposite. Stuck some extra savings into my S&S ISA while prices were low. I didn't have a crystal ball to know if the prices would drop lower but happy that in 10 - 15 years time when I need to draw from my investments, I'll be OK.

[ooid]

clubsport said:

Derek Chevalier said:

Talking of historical crashes

https://www.morningstar.com/economy/what-weve-lear...

"And the covid crash of March 2020 was actually the least painful of these 19 crashes, due to the quick subsequent recovery"

Quantative easing and subsequent expansion of Govt money supply and balance sheet like never before probably explains that?

Curious to see, what both of you think about this mini seminar? (A bit old but fundamentally they are still in the same business)

https://youtu.be/gGpt8VNpCxw?si=KZo7rzGjXISO9BbN

[PM3]

toon10 said:

Crudeoink said:

I sold a significant proportion of my holding yesterday. Held at 4.6% in a cash ISA for the time being. It all just feels a bit to risky at the moment with all this talk of Tariffs, recession and massive debt piles

I did the opposite. Stuck some extra savings into my S&S ISA while prices were low. I didn't have a crystal ball to know if the prices would drop lower but happy that in 10 - 15 years time when I need to draw from my investments, I'll be OK.

Me too, had about 1/4 of my ISA in "cash" ( money market ) that I had done to reduce exposure in Feb. This morning went back in with that into GBP denominated S&P at something like 8.5% lower than what I sold and coincidentally close to price I bought main holding back in Oct 24 .
Happy with that as its a long (ish ) hold and I now have more units at same price .
The new April ISA allowance will add to my Developed global ( VHVG) for a little balance . Of course that is majority more commitment to S&P500

[av185]

Usual story rather depends if you are more stressed being out of the market than being in which I find is more often the case.

[anonymous-user]

av185 said:

Usual story rather depends if you are more stressed being out of the market than being in which I find is more often the case.

Both, when you hear about it going up 20% a year I am stressed that I am not in it, and when I am in it I am stressed that it went down 10 to 15% in a month.

I am in situation 2 because of situation 1, I just want to recover some of my loss and get the hell out. I am exactly the sort of people savings accounts paying 4.3% were designed for.

And FFS it dropped another 1.5% today.

[Sheepshanks]

Crudeoink said:

I sold a significant proportion of my holding yesterday. Held at 4.6% in a cash ISA for the time being. It all just feels a bit to risky at the moment with all this talk of Tariffs, recession and massive debt piles

I’ve decided not to add to our SIPPs in the final reckoning for this tax year.

As we retired 9mths ago it’s a marginal tax benefit that could get wiped out in few days of falls and I don’t see the markets improving for a while.

[g4ry13]

Sheepshanks said:

Crudeoink said:

I sold a significant proportion of my holding yesterday. Held at 4.6% in a cash ISA for the time being. It all just feels a bit to risky at the moment with all this talk of Tariffs, recession and massive debt piles

I’ve decided not to add to our SIPPs in the final reckoning for this tax year.

As we retired 9mths ago it’s a marginal tax benefit that could get wiped out in few days of falls and I don’t see the markets improving for a while.

I believe the IHT situation with SIPPs is going to be changing in the next few years as well. Might be something to keep in mind.

[alscar]

ThingsBehindTheSun said:

av185 said:

Usual story rather depends if you are more stressed being out of the market than being in which I find is more often the case.

Both, when you hear about it going up 20% a year I am stressed that I am not in it, and when I am in it I am stressed that it went down 10 to 15% in a month.

I am in situation 2 because of situation 1, I just want to recover some of my loss and get the hell out. I am exactly the sort of people savings accounts paying 4.3% were designed for.

And FFS it dropped another 1.5% today.

S&P 500 for instance is “ only “ down overall 4% since year end 2024.
Are you saying that once this is recovered you are then out of the SM for good or would you want to be in some Bond Funds ?
What are you going to do once interest rates then drop on Cash accounts ?
At the very least surely you would want to have exposure to both Cash and SM and hedge your bets without then FOMO.

[Sheepshanks]

g4ry13 said:

I believe the IHT situation with SIPPs is going to be changing in the next few years as well. Might be something to keep in mind.

Yes, it might have been worth doing if it hadn't been changing.

[av185]

What is the consensus on buying gold funds/ETCs atm.

Quite a bit in Blackrock Gold and General and Ninety One Global Gold which have done and are continuing to do well in the turbulance etc is it worth buying say Invesco Physical Gold ETC (SGLP) in addition or just more of the two funds?

Thanks.

[okgo]

ThingsBehindTheSun said:

Both, when you hear about it going up 20% a year I am stressed that I am not in it, and when I am in it I am stressed that it went down 10 to 15% in a month.

I am in situation 2 because of situation 1, I just want to recover some of my loss and get the hell out. I am exactly the sort of people savings accounts paying 4.3% were designed for.

And FFS it dropped another 1.5% today.

Those rates will diminish fairly quickly given there’s more base rate cuts forecast for this year.

[Crudeoink]

Cheese on Toast with Worcestershire Sauce said:

When would you consider going back in? I'm pretty relaxed with it, the market will price in 2 April outcome, doubt there'll be anything unexpected. Perhaps some short term vol w1/2 of Apr but I expect it to be business as usual.

Not sure when I'll get back in. I'm more than happy with my gains so far and currently earning 4.6% on my cash holding in T212. I'll see how things go for the next couple of months and re-evaluate

[anonymous-user]

okgo said:

Those rates will diminish fairly quickly given there’s more base rate cuts forecast for this year.

I really hope this happens as I gambled on a Two year fix for this very reason.

Like every financial gamble I make, I guarantee it will be wrong.