S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?

[Mr E]

pingu393 said:

asfault said:

Philvrs said:

Mr E said:

I need to make an investment shortly.
This is hugely outside of my understanding. Accepting that time in the market beats timing the market, but should I hang on 7 days for turbulence to play out?

Curious why you need to invest?

He's on this thread now.
He needs to lose money like the rest of us

Probably ISA year end.

If that's the case, just invest in cash, and decide later. Once it's inside the ISA wrapper, it's in.

Not that it matters, but acting for another party and while I have some flexible on when I do the things, the things I need to do are unambiguous.

Edited by Mr E on Monday 9th March 13:47

[g4ry13]

g4ry13 said:

gotoPzero said:

Oil is screaming up on the open.

$100+ now

And to think a few months back when I mentioned buying oil and someone said Oil was dead

Wouldn't be at all surprised if Oil drops back into the low 90s this week.

Didn't even take a day!

Sadly the IV of options meant picking up some puts did not pose good value for money. Outright shorting seemed rather risky considering how fragile the market is.

[g4ry13]

Trump says war could be over soon.

Indices spiking up, Oil is now $88.

Absolutely mental day!

[gotoPzero]

Shorts getting smashed. Trump tweet can change things in 5 seconds.

[gotoPzero]

30% swing on oil. $120 this morning now $85. Madness, utter madness.
This morning we had the government saying avoid using your car as oil is going up.
Here we are 12 hours later and oil is cheaper than it was on Friday afternoon.

[ukwill]

Great pre-retirement portfolio stress test

But I can’t help but keep looking at Kospi.

Edited by ukwill on Monday 9th March 20:52

[g4ry13]

gotoPzero said:

30% swing on oil. $120 this morning now $85. Madness, utter madness.
This morning we had the government saying avoid using your car as oil is going up.
Here we are 12 hours later and oil is cheaper than it was on Friday afternoon.

And I thought I was smart buying Nasdaq last night and cashing in this morning.....

Oil now $83. I strangely want to buy it. I feel like we're one tweet away from seeing it hit the 90s again.

[732NM]

ukwill said:

Great pre-retirement portfolio stress test

But I can t help but keep looking at Kospi.

Edited by ukwill on Monday 9th March 20:52

It's been insane since April, bloody exhausting.

[Blue_star]

g4ry13 said:

Trump says war could be over soon.

Indices spiking up, Oil is now $88.

Absolutely mental day!

Its amazing how the market priced this announcement. 1) what did the usa actually achieve (honest question) snd 2) why would iran allow flow of oil ?!

[sideways sid]

g4ry13 said:

Didn't even take a day!

Sadly the IV of options meant picking up some puts did not pose good value for money. Outright shorting seemed rather risky considering how fragile the market is.

eh? Yesterday was a great day to be net short vol.

[NowWatchThisDrive]

sideways sid said:

g4ry13 said:

Didn't even take a day!

Sadly the IV of options meant picking up some puts did not pose good value for money. Outright shorting seemed rather risky considering how fragile the market is.

eh? Yesterday was a great day to be net short vol.

The second sentence is talking about shorting the underlying, not shorting vol, no?

[alscar]

gotoPzero said:

30% swing on oil. $120 this morning now $85. Madness, utter madness.
This morning we had the government saying avoid using your car as oil is going up.
Here we are 12 hours later and oil is cheaper than it was on Friday afternoon.

Advice not to take unnecessary car journeys came as usual from the AA - it’s almost like we couldn’t work that one out for ourselves ?!
2 cars needed filling in in the last 2 days - one super unleaded and one ordinary diesel - both around 1.45p at Tesco’s which doesn’t feel a huge amount more than a few weeks ago.

[g4ry13]

NowWatchThisDrive said:

sideways sid said:

g4ry13 said:

Didn't even take a day!

Sadly the IV of options meant picking up some puts did not pose good value for money. Outright shorting seemed rather risky considering how fragile the market is.

eh? Yesterday was a great day to be net short vol.

The second sentence is talking about shorting the underlying, not shorting vol, no?

Yes, short the underlying asset.

Taking out a short on Oil at $100+ when the market is reacting to the weekend news is rather risky when it could feasibly jump up 5%. Even a few % move on a leveraged account can be damaging. The limited liability of buying Puts is somewhat appealing, except due to IV they were priced rather steeply unless you pick up some really OTM options.

[anonymous-user]

gotoPzero said:

30% swing on oil. $120 this morning now $85. Madness, utter madness.

So in the last few months we have seen Gold and Oil behave more like Crypto memecoins

Seems to be diesel that is hit hardest, I have seen the difference between unleaded and diesel being nearly 20p a litre.

[NowWatchThisDrive]

g4ry13 said:

NowWatchThisDrive said:

sideways sid said:

g4ry13 said:

Didn't even take a day!

Sadly the IV of options meant picking up some puts did not pose good value for money. Outright shorting seemed rather risky considering how fragile the market is.

eh? Yesterday was a great day to be net short vol.

The second sentence is talking about shorting the underlying, not shorting vol, no?

Yes, short the underlying asset.

Taking out a short on Oil at $100+ when the market is reacting to the weekend news is rather risky when it could feasibly jump up 5%. Even a few % move on a leveraged account can be damaging. The limited liability of buying Puts is somewhat appealing, except due to IV they were priced rather steeply unless you pick up some really OTM options.

Yeah, that's how I read your OP, I figured he just got the wrong end of the stick by thinking you meant being short vol at the end.

[Phooey]

[NowWatchThisDrive]

Phooey said:

It's a fair point, but I wonder what Apollo's answer could possibly be...

"Step right up, folks - swap your liquid, transparent and cheap index funds for a bag of private credit mystery meat that we're desperate to get off our books, lest we have to mark it to something resembling reality"

[Jon39]

nickfrog said:

Mr E said:

I need to make an investment shortly.
This is hugely outside of my understanding. Accepting that time in the market beats timing the market, but should I hang on 7 days for turbulence to play out?

I think this is a bit different than amateurish attempts at timing of the market as you were planning to invest anyway. It's rare to buy exactly at the bottom of the dip but best might be the enemy of good here.

I think it's more of a good chance to get an opportunistic little head start on a long term investment. As suggested perhaps stagger the investment in 3 or 4 chunks. I am doing that right now with my first third last night (talk of amateurish ).

This topic centres on the S&P 500, but it is interesting when talking about, 'turbulence to play out', that this does not apply to the UK market which even after a dip, is 3% up this year.

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Only a very short time period, so would require further research, but the UK market also beat the US market during 2025, especially when including dividends which are a greater percentage in UK than US.
Including UK dividends would make the 2025 UK increase about 22%.

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[Panamax]

Jon39 said:

hen talking about, 'turbulence to play out', that this does not apply to the UK market

Both UK and US markets are significantly impacted by "energy", which has performed well.

US market, with heavy tech presence (tech down 10%), is only down about 3% overall YTD.
UK market, with heavy energy presence, is up about 3% overall YTD.

I think it's as simple as that.

[Dimebars]

Is it worth buying into a Vanguard S&P500 tracker just now - sitting at £96.949