S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?
Discussion
The price is hovering around £96/97 over the past few weeks by the looks, with some peaks and troughs in between.
I'll hand off for now and keep an eye on the fluctuations. Not talking huge sums, but think having some invested here and some in the FTSE equivalent should be a reasonable decision longer term.
I'll hand off for now and keep an eye on the fluctuations. Not talking huge sums, but think having some invested here and some in the FTSE equivalent should be a reasonable decision longer term.
trickywoo said:
I've been really surprised by the lack of reaction to the Iran events in US stocks.
I obviously know nothing but have a feeling we are only one crazy Trump move away from a 5% + fall.
I lowered the amount I had in S&P in October, more luck than judgement, dollar has strengthened a bit making losses in my other accounts lower than I thought they would be.I obviously know nothing but have a feeling we are only one crazy Trump move away from a 5% + fall.
I can’t see how he can exit this episode with any credibility, Americans now paying more at the pumps and for food, he’ll have to do something very soon.
Crumpet said:
Dimebars said:
Is it worth buying into a Vanguard S&P500 tracker just now - sitting at £96.949
I seem to remember seeing somewhere that, following a war, the low is usually about 25-30 days after the start. I m gong to give it another ten days before committing anything.
trickywoo said:
I've been really surprised by the lack of reaction to the Iran events in US stocks.
I obviously know nothing but have a feeling we are only one crazy Trump move away from a 5% + fall.
Hard to argue….although it does feel to me like the tango turds chickens are perhaps about to come home to roost….he will clearly try to set fire to the world to avoid the Trump-Epstein™ Files coming out…. but America is waking up.I obviously know nothing but have a feeling we are only one crazy Trump move away from a 5% + fall.
birdcage said:
I think predicting a crash based on AI valuations and application is slightly misleading, a black swan even occurs every so often and that precipitates a sell off in equities.
One could argue that valuations are stretched for tech companies, would I buy Tesla or Palantir stocks today. No chance. Will they go up or down, probably.
The door marked exit is smaller than the one marked entrance however, and I don't imagine it would take much for a sequence of events to occur that caused a stampede for the exit, however that could be in 5 years who knows.
If you have to make predictions, make them very long term and make them very often, as someone once said.
Do I regret selling all of my Nvidia pre xmas and buying Viper Energy. No
Well to quote myself:One could argue that valuations are stretched for tech companies, would I buy Tesla or Palantir stocks today. No chance. Will they go up or down, probably.
The door marked exit is smaller than the one marked entrance however, and I don't imagine it would take much for a sequence of events to occur that caused a stampede for the exit, however that could be in 5 years who knows.
If you have to make predictions, make them very long term and make them very often, as someone once said.
Do I regret selling all of my Nvidia pre xmas and buying Viper Energy. No
Tesla -13%
Palantir -8%
Viper Energy + 14%
Perhaps not a run for the exit but I'm happy I switched....
NowWatchThisDrive said:
Phooey said:
It's a fair point, but I wonder what Apollo's answer could possibly be..."Step right up, folks - swap your liquid, transparent and cheap index funds for a bag of private credit mystery meat that we're desperate to get off our books, lest we have to mark it to something resembling reality"
t of private credit debt. trickywoo said:
I've been really surprised by the lack of reaction to the Iran events in US stocks.
I obviously know nothing but have a feeling we are only one crazy Trump move away from a 5% + fall.
Watching the funds in my pension I'm getting deja vu from the start of covid.I obviously know nothing but have a feeling we are only one crazy Trump move away from a 5% + fall.
There was a good few weeks where the markets seemed to just be carrying on largely as normal on momentum with nothing and nobody accepting there was a serious storm brewing.
The drops have come more immediately this time, but we're 3 weeks in to this thing and most funds are only down about 3%. Doesn't really feel like it reflects the gravity of the situation.
SJfW said:
trickywoo said:
I've been really surprised by the lack of reaction to the Iran events in US stocks.
I obviously know nothing but have a feeling we are only one crazy Trump move away from a 5% + fall.
Watching the funds in my pension I'm getting deja vu from the start of covid.I obviously know nothing but have a feeling we are only one crazy Trump move away from a 5% + fall.
There was a good few weeks where the markets seemed to just be carrying on largely as normal on momentum with nothing and nobody accepting there was a serious storm brewing.
The drops have come more immediately this time, but we're 3 weeks in to this thing and most funds are only down about 3%. Doesn't really feel like it reflects the gravity of the situation.
There is probably still optimism amongst investors, hoping that the conflict will soon be over.
Unless serious selling commences, the market trend might not take a dive, but if panic selling does begin, the lemmings will quickly join in and down we go.
Regarding oil/gas, is the USA now self sufficient?
I understand that their commencement of shale drilling made a huge difference to their total production.
The world price applies because while nations can sell their own extraction, for more than if they just supplied their own citizens, it is of course tempting to do so. Presumably by forgoing that extra margin, reduced fuel prices could apply within a nation
Obviously the UK cannot even consider that, because taxing explorers at 78%, has resulted in them all leaving the North Sea.
If that tax was ended tomorrow I doubt explorers would risk returning, because they would no longer have any trust in politicians.
To think that the UK used to be an exporter of oil, but now we are told that the UK gas reserves (still a huge requirement for our electricity generation) are only sufficient for just 2 days. If the Qatar LPG ships cannot comtinue supplying the UK, what happens next?
Edited by Jon39 on Thursday 19th March 12:00
dingg said:
Qatar supplies less than 2% of UK gas consumption.
Norway supplies about 50% , we will just increase the nominations from Norway.
Don't panic Mr Mainwaring
Norway is just about at it's maximum export capacity already and the rest of Europe might also like a little more from Norway.Norway supplies about 50% , we will just increase the nominations from Norway.
Don't panic Mr Mainwaring
SunsetZed said:
dingg said:
Qatar supplies less than 2% of UK gas consumption.
Norway supplies about 50% , we will just increase the nominations from Norway.
Don't panic Mr Mainwaring
Norway is just about at it's maximum export capacity already and the rest of Europe might also like a little more from Norway.Norway supplies about 50% , we will just increase the nominations from Norway.
Don't panic Mr Mainwaring
Price will soar as turng off Qatar gas is a blow to japan, China , India and a lot of Asia who consume vast amount of middle east ( and Australian )gas
Edited by PM3 on Thursday 19th March 13:09
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