S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?

[Jon39]

732NM said:

Chicken Chaser said:

Just looking at my s&s ISA options for this year, I'm currently using NatWest Invest. I've got it in a balanced fund as I'm probably looking at another 10 years building it it and it's already been in about 3.

It's overall growth is 8% in that time, it pretty much went flat this time last year so that's the growth over a year. Should I be looking elsewhere or does this sound ok for a passive investment?

You have to be careful using YOY growth at a certain timestamp point. This time last year (April 2nd) Trump crashed the market with his "liberation day" tariff presentation, so growth will look better than it really is if you use the low point from that absurd moment as your start point.

NatWest Balanced Fund - 8% growth over 3 years.
That performance is pathetic and it was their clients who lost, not the fund managers.
Few activity managed funds even beat the market average over the long-term.
Low-cost Index Tracker funds are best for any investor who does not want to have their own portfolio of individual holdings and that only becomes worthwhile, if they are able to beat the market average.

Quite right about YOY performance. Just creates confusion.
Regular calendar year with total return benchmark comparison is best.

To put that 8% figure in perspective.
2025 was an exceptional year. You should have done far better last year.
2025 UK Index Tracker = +24%.
+36% was possible for some.

NatWest probably provide expert sounding fund management information to their clients, but don't be taken in. Dig deeper.


EDIT
It must appear ironic to you (Chicken Chaser) that during 2025, NatWest's own shares increased in value by 62% (plus the dividends paid to shareholders). The banking sector as a whole was very strong last year. Santander probably being one of the best +126% plus dividends.

Edited by Jon39 on Wednesday 8th April 21:08

[Simpo Two]

Chicken Chaser said:

Just looking at my s&s ISA options for this year, I'm currently using NatWest Invest. I've got it in a balanced fund as I'm probably looking at another 10 years building it it and it's already been in about 3.

It's overall growth is 8% in that time, it pretty much went flat this time last year so that's the growth over a year. Should I be looking elsewhere or does this sound ok for a passive investment?

8% over 3 years means you're poorer than when you started, thanks to inflation.

It's bloody shocking. What on earth is in this 'balanced' fund? I'm guessing it was 'balanced' with bonds and that's what screwed it. Furthermore, do you know what the charges are, and is there an IFA in the mix?

[Jon39]

Good Plan Ted said:

Could I invest in a SP500 tracker this morning and make money on today s movements or is it all long term ie days to invest and days to sale means you lose profits.

I have AJ Bell, HL, and II as platforms.

It is very simple.
If you just want to have fun, do short-term trading. Try some horse race betting as well.
It is all just gambling.

If you want to become wealthy, then use the stock market to invest very long-term.

I did short-term trading when I began 38 years ago, but soon realised that although there can be some modest profits, it is basically a waste of time. To make big money needs patience, keeping hold of good businesses, then eventually you won't believe what compounding can achieve.

[ooid]

Simpo Two said:

Chicken Chaser said:

Just looking at my s&s ISA options for this year, I'm currently using NatWest Invest. I've got it in a balanced fund as I'm probably looking at another 10 years building it it and it's already been in about 3.

It's overall growth is 8% in that time, it pretty much went flat this time last year so that's the growth over a year. Should I be looking elsewhere or does this sound ok for a passive investment?

8% over 3 years means you're poorer than when you started, thanks to inflation.

It's bloody shocking. What on earth is in this 'balanced' fund? I'm guessing it was 'balanced' with bonds and that's what screwed it. Furthermore, do you know what the charges are, and is there an IFA in the mix?

I think the figure is "annualized" meaning, it generated actually around 25% (cumulative) for the last 3 years.

(well at least the link below, there is an option "personal balanced fund" and that gives a similar result"

https://www.natwest.com/investments/existing-custo...


It is basically 60/40 and looks like funds of funds (active management with passive funds). Obviously there are better options (and cheaper) like Vanguard, but it has not been totally crap performance -imho-

https://www.natwest.com/content/dam/natwest/person...

Edited by ooid on Thursday 9th April 08:47

[Mr Pointy]

ooid said:

I think the figure is "annualized" meaning, it generated actually around 25% (cumulative) for the last 3 years.

Nope

Chicken Chaser said:

No that is the total growth over the time invested. It was back to zero last April when Trump killed it

[p1stonhead]

When it’s said out loud like this it’s pretty bad yeah….

https://x.com/macaesbruno/status/20419254169197405...

[simon800]

Mr Pointy said:

ooid said:

I think the figure is "annualized" meaning, it generated actually around 25% (cumulative) for the last 3 years.

Nope

Chicken Chaser said:

No that is the total growth over the time invested. It was back to zero last April when Trump killed it

Either the Natwest fund fact sheets are wrong, or the poster is wrong

Natwest's data shows this fund returned 8.7% in 2023, 10.2% in 2024, 9.2% in 2025.

The fund has not returned only 8% in 3 years.

It's a 60/40 fund, comparisons to the FTSE 100 or S&P 500 are bizarre - it's a completely different level of risk.

[Dimebars]

Looking at T212's cost for buying VUAG, seems to have rebounded to pre-nonsense levels

Started around £97, dropped to ~£92 and is back at £97 just now

Obviously subject to any more volatility that Trump wants to introduce on a whim

[Mr Whippy]

lol 8% or 25% or 0% in the last 12mo?

Which one?

It’s not good if the website/fund comms aren’t making it absolutely clear.

[Phooey]

Dimebars said:

Looking at T212's cost for buying VUAG, seems to have rebounded to pre-nonsense levels

Started around £97, dropped to ~£92 and is back at £97 just now

Obviously subject to any more volatility that Trump wants to introduce on a whim

I don’t know whether the S&P being only a few percent off ATHs is something to be bullish or bearish. Can’t remember which oil shock it was, might be 70’s, but markets bounced back only for inflation to increase followed by a recession. Different situation but be wary of complacency..?

[Chicken Chaser]

simon800 said:

Either the Natwest fund fact sheets are wrong, or the poster is wrong

Natwest's data shows this fund returned 8.7% in 2023, 10.2% in 2024, 9.2% in 2025.

The fund has not returned only 8% in 3 years.

It's a 60/40 fund, comparisons to the FTSE 100 or S&P 500 are bizarre - it's a completely different level of risk.

I've put £16900 in and it's made £1400.

[Hustle_]

Phooey said:

I don t know whether the S&P being only a few percent off ATHs is something to be bullish or bearish. Can t remember which oil shock it was, might be 70 s, but markets bounced back only for inflation to increase followed by a recession. Different situation but be wary of complacency..?

Unfortunately my investments aren't automated right now, so I have March and April money and some TY 2025/26 ISA money to put into stocks. This has me dilly-dallying and looking for a dip. Right now I think everybody is feeling far too cosy about this ceasefire. A conditional two-week ceasefire is just that. I expect a rollercoaster of tactless and warlike 'negotiation' tactics. The enduring situation when all said and done is likely to be worse than what existed before.

[Inlineonline]

The evidence of some long term data is that provided you are investing in the whole market (ideally global) for the long term, it’s pointless trying to pick your ideal entry time. Just get into the market and ideally keep topping up and you will almost certainly end up better off than any active fund, and certainly better off than trying to time and pick stocks as an individual.

Stock market investing is an area where more research doesn’t usually generate more profit unless you are insider trading of course!

Been doing this for 18 years and it’s pretty clear to me that I could have just stuck the money in a tracker and saved a lot of stress and heartache and probably made even more profit!

The other thing is that with a global tracker, you never actually need to sell, so you can leave it all compounding and make modest withdrawals below tax thresholds when you want to.

With stock picking you’re bound to want to adjust and you will be paying CGT each time you do that (assuming you’re selling at a profit!)

Apart from a small amount in short dated GILTs as a hedge and a similar amount in premium bonds and NS&I as a cash buffet, everything else is in a global tracker now and I’ve turned off the stock tracking widget on my phone.

[ooid]

Chicken Chaser said:

I've put £16900 in and it's made £1400.

When did you put 16900 (Lump sum?) and when is the gain 1400 (today?). If you did monthly or several periodic payments, than other calculation.

If you literally put 16900 3 years ago, have not touched it, and today it is now 18300, than it has performed pretty rubbish really, annually only 2.7%.

Edited by ooid on Thursday 9th April 22:35

Edited by ooid on Thursday 9th April 22:35

[simon800]

Chicken Chaser said:

I've put £16900 in and it's made £1400.

That doesnt mean the fund has returned 8% in 3 years though, which is the point some people are missing

[732NM]

simon800 said:

Chicken Chaser said:

I've put £16900 in and it's made £1400.

That doesnt mean the fund has returned 8% in 3 years though, which is the point some people are missing

The information from this poster is useless.

[Mr Whippy]

Inlineonline said:

Been doing this for 18 years and it s pretty clear to me that I could have just stuck the money in a tracker and saved a lot of stress and heartache and probably made even more profit!

The last 18 years have been quite abnormal as things go.

Historic examples of everything under the sun to do with finance. Debt levels, rate cuts, shortest bear markets, most QE, most debt, biggest deficits.

I'd suggest at least being aware of why global trackers have done so well and what the risks of now being positioned like that are vs the rest of market history outside the last 18 yrs.

[Inlineonline]

Mr Whippy said:

Inlineonline said:

Been doing this for 18 years and it s pretty clear to me that I could have just stuck the money in a tracker and saved a lot of stress and heartache and probably made even more profit!

The last 18 years have been quite abnormal as things go.

Historic examples of everything under the sun to do with finance. Debt levels, rate cuts, shortest bear markets, most QE, most debt, biggest deficits.

I'd suggest at least being aware of why global trackers have done so well and what the risks of now being positioned like that are vs the rest of market history outside the last 18 yrs.

I get that, but why should I expect to beat the market on a consistent basis when the majority of professional fund managers don't?

Stock picking is just gambling IMHO

The real skill is in assessing your risk appetite and deciding on asset allocation. That's where you can add value with your own personal knowledge and insight.

[keo]

Inlineonline said:

I get that, but why should I expect to beat the market on a consistent basis when the majority of professional fund managers don't?

Stock picking is just gambling IMHO

The real skill is in assessing your risk appetite and deciding on asset allocation. That's where you can add value with your own personal knowledge and insight.

I fully agree with you. I tried individual stocks, I made some money, I lost some money…

Now I just put my money in my ISA (in funds I am happy with, who knows if I am right but I am nearly 90% up in just over 5 years) and I forget about it.

In 20 years time or more, it should hopefully be worth substantially more than I have put in. Looking forward to the point where my money earns more money than I put in. If I ever get there!

[Inlineonline]

keo said:

Inlineonline said:

I get that, but why should I expect to beat the market on a consistent basis when the majority of professional fund managers don't?

Stock picking is just gambling IMHO

The real skill is in assessing your risk appetite and deciding on asset allocation. That's where you can add value with your own personal knowledge and insight.

I fully agree with you. I tried individual stocks, I made some money, I lost some money

Now I just put my money in my ISA (in funds I am happy with, who knows if I am right but I am nearly 90% up in just over 5 years) and I forget about it.

In 20 years time or more, it should hopefully be worth substantially more than I have put in. Looking forward to the point where my money earns more money than I put in. If I ever get there!

Exactly this. My wife had a tailored portfolio of funds, yet she rarely checked them, too busy with kids etc. She ended doing at least as well as me with my constant fiddling. There's a lesson in that. And far less stressful.

I realised to my satisfaction when I did some pre-early retirement planning, that we had reached that inflection point where the average growth on our investments would more than outpace inflation plus any spending plans we had and so there's no need to chase excessive returns (and in any case that usually fails.)

The best thing is that our millennial daughters can see the benefits of what we have built, and are enthusiastically putting the max into their ISA's each year rather than frittering it away, realising that this will bring them financial freedom at some point, and that their lives would not be any better buying endless tat that they don't actually need or want. It's like the line from the book 'The richest man in Babylon' where they talk about your savings building up like a willing army of slaves ready to work for you so that you don't have to. Every wasted £ is one less slave to serve you.

In that context, stock or fund picking is such a small part of the overall picture, and one that rarely actually brings consistent gains. It's one aspect of life where doing less gets you more!

(and as a side note, not needing to constantly watch the markets is so much better for your family life and mental health!)

Edited by Inlineonline on Friday 10th April 11:29