S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?
Discussion
Simpo Two said:
What gave you the +13% over the first quarter? That's what made the difference.
First quarter 2002, during the 'Dot Com Crash'.
Just for you John, I now have to hand my 28 March 2002 weekly report (as normal in league table order).
It certainly reminds me of some lost names from the past.
YTD Top Six;
Lastminute .............. +96.7%
Innogy ...................... +40.6%
Enterprise ................ +35.0%
GKN .......................... +30.2%
Premier Oil ............... +29.9%
Imperial Tobacco .... +28.0%
ooid is quite correct, because BAT in 9th place .. +15.9%, was strongly influential in the overall performance, due to it being the largest holding. Back then, I notice it was only worth one sixth of it's value now.
YTD Bottom Six;
Scottish Power ........... - 5.4%
3.5% War Loan (Gilt) ... -5.4%
Compass ..................... - 8.7%
Thus ............................. - 11.6%
mmO2 ........................... - 21.1%
Cable & Wireless .......... - 32.3%
Interesting how 8 of those 12 holdings, have either gone bust, were taken over, or been redeemed.
I forget what happened to Innogy and Enterprise Oil; part of GKN is now Melrose; Premier is now Harbour Energy; Scottish Power, Thus, mmO2 and Cable & Wireless were all taken over. Imperial and Compass have both grown considerably.
I rarely look back 24 years at this stuff, so thank you for the opportunity to reminisce.
Edited by Jon39 on Saturday 18th April 19:42
g4ry13 said:
nickfrog said:
I am now almost 1% overall above my previous personal portfolio high of 3 March 26. A bit of dip buying helped a little I guess.
Another mini dip today/this week? Ready for it.
The dip was last night. I bought and sold it within the first 10 minutes. Another mini dip today/this week? Ready for it.
Do you consistently beat the average index return with this strategy?
My passive approach is beating my previously more active one, you may be better than me, but on average I doubt it!
Inlineonline said:
g4ry13 said:
nickfrog said:
I am now almost 1% overall above my previous personal portfolio high of 3 March 26. A bit of dip buying helped a little I guess.
Another mini dip today/this week? Ready for it.
The dip was last night. I bought and sold it within the first 10 minutes. Another mini dip today/this week? Ready for it.
Do you consistently beat the average index return with this strategy?
My passive approach is beating my previously more active one, you may be better than me, but on average I doubt it!
g4ry13 said:
I have long term investments. I also trade the index when opportunities present themselves - otherwise I regularly trade other instruments.
As you use both short-term and long-term strategies, Gary, it would be very interesting if you were to keep separate individual records for each portfolio.
Portfolio - Long-term = YTD % total return change.
Portfolio - Short-term = YTD % change. [Presumably few dividends from a short-term strategy.]
Most serious investors would bet on long-term, but you might prove them wrong.
I’ve jus decided that I’m either not likely to consistently beat a passive strategy, or to do so with such limited benefit that it doesn’t outweigh the agro of just sticking the whole port into a global index fund (with a few hundred K in short dead government bonds as a small cash like buffer)
Our pensions are all index linked defined benefit so I consider those to be effectively index linked gilts really so I’m happy to put everything else into equities (except the as of course with man maths they’re the best investment!)
Our pensions are all index linked defined benefit so I consider those to be effectively index linked gilts really so I’m happy to put everything else into equities (except the as of course with man maths they’re the best investment!)
Sheepshanks said:
"mini dip"? I don't see why the markets wouldn't have a complete meltdown today.
"'This doesn't make sense' and 'Risk assets are detached from reality.' This is how a lot of our meetings start right now...But these are exactly the sorts of dips one will have to use very quickly in the coming weeks...In short: be quick."Phooey said:
Sheepshanks said:
"mini dip"? I don't see why the markets wouldn't have a complete meltdown today.
"'This doesn't make sense' and 'Risk assets are detached from reality.' This is how a lot of our meetings start right now...But these are exactly the sorts of dips one will have to use very quickly in the coming weeks...In short: be quick."If HSBC's Kettner is so clever. I wonder if in 2020, she suggested to those of her clients who were not already holding HSBC, that they should consider buying?
2021 + 15·7% ... Yield 3·5%
2022 + 14·9% ... ........ 4·2%
2023 + 23·2% ............ 6·7%
2024 + 23·6% ............ 6·1%
2025 + 49·5% ............ 4·2%
2026 + 16·3% ............. 4·1% [Year to 17 April 2026]
Not sure about 'be quick'.
BE PATIENT has proven to be quite a good way.
Sheepshanks said:
nickfrog said:
I am now almost 1% overall above my previous personal portfolio high of 3 March 26. A bit of dip buying helped a little I guess.
Another mini dip today/this week? Ready for it.
"mini dip"? I don't see why the markets wouldn't have a complete meltdown today.Another mini dip today/this week? Ready for it.
CORRECTION
Sorry. In my previous post, I referred to 'Kettner' as a lady.
[Only the surname shown and there was an accompanying photograph of a lady.]
I now see that it is Mr. Max Kettner, HSBC Chief Multi-Asset Strategist.
(One of my valued employees, hopefully working hard today, obtaining fee and commission income.) -
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Phooey said:
Sheepshanks said:
"mini dip"? I don't see why the markets wouldn't have a complete meltdown today.
"'This doesn't make sense' and 'Risk assets are detached from reality.' This is how a lot of our meetings start right now...But these are exactly the sorts of dips one will have to use very quickly in the coming weeks...In short: be quick."If HSBC's Kettner is so clever. I wonder if in 2020, he suggested to those of his clients who were not already holding HSBC shares, that they should consider buying?
2021 + 15·7% ... Yield 3·5%
2022 + 14·9% ... ........ 4·2%
2023 + 23·2% ............ 6·7%
2024 + 23·6% ............ 6·1%
2025 + 49·5% ............ 4·2%
2026 + 16·3% ............. 4·1% [Year to 17 April 2026]
Not sure about 'be quick'.
BE PATIENT has always proven to be quite a good way.
Jon39 said:
If HSBC's Kettner is so clever. I wonder if in 2020, he suggested to those of his clients who were not already holding HSBC shares, that they should consider buying?
2021 + 15·7% ... Yield 3·5%
2022 + 14·9% ... ........ 4·2%
2023 + 23·2% ............ 6·7%
2024 + 23·6% ............ 6·1%
2025 + 49·5% ............ 4·2%
2026 + 16·3% ............. 4·1% [Year to 17 April 2026]
Not sure about 'be quick'.
BE PATIENT has always proven to be quite a good way.
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