S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?

[dingg]

Never mind spouting the now figures

How was it 3 weeks ago ?

;-)

[asfault]

simon800 said:

With the best will in the world, these figures are meaningless without the context.

Some might be accumulating with pots of £100k punting it into high risk single stocks.

Some might be running 7 figure portfolios taking far lower risk.

Etc, etc.

Not really.
The fact we are all here commenting and posting means we have more of an interest than the average person in finances. And the one generally viewed goal is to beat the markets.

Whether through just getting lucky on a longshot punt or well timed buy.

£1m or £100 its the percentage you were generally looking for.

It at least let's you know if you have completely wasted your time buying and selling.

[pingu393]

SIPP +5.2%
ISA +5.6%

Both passive, but with the option to make daily changes - although I'm sure they'd close my account if I did.

I cashed out the active stuff in March.

[732NM]

+6.0% currently YTD, using a mix of funds and regions.

My tech fund took a battering since November, but is starting to recover and being touted as a buy now. I was down 17% on the high of November in my tech fund, it's now only down 0.7% from that high. It's up 928% over the last 10 years.

[simon800]

asfault said:

And the one generally viewed goal is to beat the markets.

Not for me it isn’t.

My objective isn’t to “beat the market” - it’s to achieve the return I need to meet my financial goals, while taking a level of risk I’m actually comfortable with.

Chasing market-beating returns is exactly what drives a lot of poor investor behaviour like overtrading, concentration in risky positions, and trying to time things that can’t reliably be timed.

[Panamax]

Regarding what gets written here we often don't know whether people are comparing apples with oranges.

For instance, do people consider their cash to be in the portfolio or out of it. How do the many Premium Bond owners treat their holdings. Are they talking just about their SIPP or just about their ISA. Are they measuring performance before all costs and fees or after them.

Personally I'm not trying to beat anything. If the overall net, net, net returns after any applicable taxes are consistently "good" then I'm away and happy, because "good" has to exist in the context of "risk".

[LeoSayer]

Overall as of last weekend YTD I was up 3.4% which is made up of:

+1.2% Money market funds, short term gilt fund and gilt ladder running until 2031.
+4.7% Global equity index tracker funds

Around 3 weeks ago I was around -1.5% down overall.

[Abc321]

I dont follow the thread and am very early in my "investing journey", but popped in to see what the recent postings were about give the recent volatility.

I thought I was very average but am 7.3% up YTD (T212 S&S ISA). Very happy even though was basically 0.0% about a month ago (as I'm sure most were)

My aim is to max ISA limit every year between now and retirement (I'm sure life will get in the way of reaching that limit but aim for the stars and all that).

[Chicken Chaser]

Does YTD refer to just the beginning of the new tax year or the calendar?

[732NM]

Chicken Chaser said:

Does YTD refer to just the beginning of the new tax year or the calendar?

calendar

[SJfW]

732NM said:

Chicken Chaser said:

Does YTD refer to just the beginning of the new tax year or the calendar?

calendar

Yet you could argue the calendar year doesn't really matter.

Pension, ISA and CGT annual allowances don't care for the Gregorian.

[732NM]

SJfW said:

732NM said:

Chicken Chaser said:

Does YTD refer to just the beginning of the new tax year or the calendar?

calendar

Yet you could argue the calendar year doesn't really matter.

Pension, ISA and CGT annual allowances don't care for the Gregorian.

The world doesn't care about when the UK tax year runs.

Any date you use as reference is arbitrary, as has been discussed multiple times already in this thread.

[Chicken Chaser]

732NM said:

calendar

Thanks.

[okgo]

simon800 said:

Not for me it isn t.

My objective isn t to beat the market - it s to achieve the return I need to meet my financial goals, while taking a level of risk I m actually comfortable with.

Chasing market-beating returns is exactly what drives a lot of poor investor behaviour like overtrading, concentration in risky positions, and trying to time things that can t reliably be timed.

Tend to agree. There’s a lot of mad viewed people on PH finance forums quoting crazy numbers. But I’m going to guess they’re not doing so with anything like the bulk of their net worth - because you’d have to be a lunatic to do so.

[pingu393]

732NM said:

SJfW said:

732NM said:

Chicken Chaser said:

Does YTD refer to just the beginning of the new tax year or the calendar?

calendar

Yet you could argue the calendar year doesn't really matter.

Pension, ISA and CGT annual allowances don't care for the Gregorian.

The world doesn't care about when the UK tax year runs.

Any date you use as reference is arbitrary, as has been discussed multiple times already in this thread.

I always work on a rolling period, be that a month, a year, 5 years, or whatever. I only use YTD when asked a question.

[alscar]

Panamax said:

Regarding what gets written here we often don't know whether people are comparing apples with oranges.

For instance, do people consider their cash to be in the portfolio or out of it. How do the many Premium Bond owners treat their holdings. Are they talking just about their SIPP or just about their ISA. Are they measuring performance before all costs and fees or after them.

Personally I'm not trying to beat anything. If the overall net, net, net returns after any applicable taxes are consistently "good" then I'm away and happy, because "good" has to exist in the context of "risk".

Without quantum or indeed risk profile the vast majority of comparisons are indeed probably apples with tins of coke.
I only look at my various pots once every 3 months and then only at those pots that are SM invested - all Funds.
Cash pots / PB pots and the like are just that and need no reviews.
Probably around 70% of our pots are available to review on line with the valuation being net of all charges.

[asfault]

SJfW said:

732NM said:

Chicken Chaser said:

Does YTD refer to just the beginning of the new tax year or the calendar?

calendar

Yet you could argue the calendar year doesn't really matter.

Pension, ISA and CGT annual allowances don't care for the Gregorian.

YTD is an easy function to compare though jsut for interest stakes on this thread.

[Jon39]

simon800 said:

... Chasing market-beating returns is exactly what drives a lot of poor investor behaviour like overtrading, concentration in risky positions, and trying to time things that can't reliably be timed.

You have provided three reasons and I agree with each of them.
All introduce higher risk, unacceptable to many serious long-term investors.
There are some sensible choices though.

How about a mainly defensive (safer during market crashes) large cap, international portfolio, which has remained mostly unchanged and all by itself, has beaten the total market return in 24 out of 38 years?

The strategy is simple. Careful initial selection of businesses. During future years, the performance against market will make it very clear, whether your selection was good, or not.


Several posters have recently quoted 'at a moment' YTD performance percentages, which mean nothing in constantly moving markets.
Please let us see your line charts, because they provide a much clearer 'story' of performance to date.

Edited by Jon39 on Tuesday 21st April 17:33

[Inlineonline]

LeoSayer said:

Overall as of last weekend YTD I was up 3.4% which is made up of:

+1.2% Money market funds, short term gilt fund and gilt ladder running until 2031.
+4.7% Global equity index tracker funds

Around 3 weeks ago I was around -1.5% down overall.

Out of interest why do you use money market funds rather than low coupon short dated gilts like TN28 which are capital gains tax free even outside an Isa wrapper?

[Chicken Chaser]

59p down on my initial investment of £100 this morning. Gutted