S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?
Discussion
Inlineonline said:
Skyedriver said:
So have the "markets" both Global and UK all settled down again after the latest Middle East war? (Still ongoing as far as I can see).
Safe to go back in ?(I know "timing not time in" but no need to catch a falling knife).
Asking for a friend....
Well they are back near all time highs so it depends on your definition of 'safe'Safe to go back in ?(I know "timing not time in" but no need to catch a falling knife).
Asking for a friend....
Warren Buffet had something to say about this IIRC!
asfault said:
What falling knife though? Markets are up? 30th of March was the end of the falling knife.
Granted there are stocks that havn't recovered
Musta slept though April.....Granted there are stocks that havn't recovered
Quite a few of my holdings are still down and the total in my ISA whilst now back up above the lows of a month or so ago are nowhere near back to where they stood at say Christmas.
Will recommend a gentle reload.
Skyedriver said:
Musta slept though April.....
Quite a few of my holdings are still down and the total in my ISA whilst now back up above the lows of a month or so ago are nowhere near back to where they stood at say Christmas.
Will recommend a gentle reload.
That’s odd. Mine is at all time high. 2.2% above high around Xmas. Quite a few of my holdings are still down and the total in my ISA whilst now back up above the lows of a month or so ago are nowhere near back to where they stood at say Christmas.
Will recommend a gentle reload.
Buffet holding cash is not the same as you or I selling everything.
He gradually takes profits during good times to build up a cash buffer and then deploys this only when he feels the market has fallen to real value levels.
In the meantime what he does NOT do is sell when the market falls, that's his secret sauce.
He's the perfect buy low, sell high investor.
He still remains heavily invested throughout the cycle.
Easier when you have billions to invest of course!
He gradually takes profits during good times to build up a cash buffer and then deploys this only when he feels the market has fallen to real value levels.
In the meantime what he does NOT do is sell when the market falls, that's his secret sauce.
He's the perfect buy low, sell high investor.
He still remains heavily invested throughout the cycle.
Easier when you have billions to invest of course!
Skyedriver said:
So have the "markets" both Global and UK all settled down again after the latest Middle East war? (Still ongoing as far as I can see).
Safe to go back in ?(I know "timing not time in" but no need to catch a falling knife).
Asking for a friend....
It might go down but look at it this way - If you had invested in the S&P 500 a month ago, at the start of the UK tax year, the market could fall 11.46% today and you would still have your initial investment. That would be the 4th largest daily percentage loss in history.Safe to go back in ?(I know "timing not time in" but no need to catch a falling knife).
Asking for a friend....
Inlineonline said:
Buffet holding cash is not the same as you or I selling everything.
He gradually takes profits during good times to build up a cash buffer and then deploys this only when he feels the market has fallen to real value levels.
In the meantime what he does NOT do is sell when the market falls, that's his secret sauce.
He's the perfect buy low, sell high investor.
He still remains heavily invested throughout the cycle.
Easier when you have billions to invest of course!
Very fair. He gradually takes profits during good times to build up a cash buffer and then deploys this only when he feels the market has fallen to real value levels.
In the meantime what he does NOT do is sell when the market falls, that's his secret sauce.
He's the perfect buy low, sell high investor.
He still remains heavily invested throughout the cycle.
Easier when you have billions to invest of course!
When I stopped work 5 years ago not investing fresh funds in from bonus’s was the biggest thing I missed !
Whilst my funds in the SM remain pretty much unchanged in terms of the EQ to Bond split ( 75%/25% )with maybe a couple of exceptions where I halved the particular fund and reinvested in something else I “ hate “ crystallising any losses and am very much in the long term hold category.
okgo said:
Quite.
People with a few grand trying to base their investing decisions on what a billionaire does is quite mental.
Not sure if thats aimed at me or no but i do agree. I was just curious as to what the "buffett says" comment was referring to, as he says a lot of things.People with a few grand trying to base their investing decisions on what a billionaire does is quite mental.
FWIW in the spirit of the thread - i'm also at ATH, up ~7% since Jan 12 to today, ~25% since Jun 30, 2025.
Edited by bmwmike on Wednesday 6th May 12:41
The problem most people have (and I’m no exception believe me) is not being willing to crystallise and Gains.
Not being emotionally attached to a stock that has done well for you is very had, but essential.
And there’s a saying ‘ leave another 10% for the next guy’ ie don’t always hold on for an extra bit of growth, sell when you have a gain you are comfortable with (and ideally you should define your exit point in advance and stick to it before buying any share) and then move on.
Or just use a tracker!
Not being emotionally attached to a stock that has done well for you is very had, but essential.
And there’s a saying ‘ leave another 10% for the next guy’ ie don’t always hold on for an extra bit of growth, sell when you have a gain you are comfortable with (and ideally you should define your exit point in advance and stick to it before buying any share) and then move on.
Or just use a tracker!
Inlineonline said:
The problem most people have (and I m no exception believe me) is not being willing to crystallise and Gains.
Not being emotionally attached to a stock that has done well for you is very had, but essential.
And there s a saying leave another 10% for the next guy ie don t always hold on for an extra bit of growth, sell when you have a gain you are comfortable with (and ideally you should define your exit point in advance and stick to it before buying any share) and then move on.
Or just use a tracker!
I just use index funds exclusively these days. I used to have relatively small positions in individual stocks mainly to fuel my interest and stop me tinkering with my index funds. Sold those this year and just went boring.Not being emotionally attached to a stock that has done well for you is very had, but essential.
And there s a saying leave another 10% for the next guy ie don t always hold on for an extra bit of growth, sell when you have a gain you are comfortable with (and ideally you should define your exit point in advance and stick to it before buying any share) and then move on.
Or just use a tracker!
I see AMD surged about 19% today after earnings, but what I realised is unless you have the time and inclination to really research companies, individual stock picking can become pretty speculative. And even then, the majority of investors still fail to beat the market long term.
I’d rather just buy the market and get on with life.
a311 said:
I just use index funds exclusively these days. I used to have relatively small positions in individual stocks mainly to fuel my interest and stop me tinkering with my index funds. Sold those this year and just went boring.
I see AMD surged about 19% today after earnings, but what I realised is unless you have the time and inclination to really research companies, individual stock picking can become pretty speculative. And even then, the majority of investors still fail to beat the market long term.
I d rather just buy the market and get on with life.
Indeed. And if you own VWRL or S&P 500 etc, then you already own a bit of AMD too.I see AMD surged about 19% today after earnings, but what I realised is unless you have the time and inclination to really research companies, individual stock picking can become pretty speculative. And even then, the majority of investors still fail to beat the market long term.
I d rather just buy the market and get on with life.
Inlineonline said:
The problem most people have (and I m no exception believe me) is not being willing to crystallise and Gains.
Tut, tut, mustn't let the tax tail wag the dog.Having said that, my overall average CGT rate of 10% isn't too shabby. It's harder to keep that down now the CGT-free allowance is almost zero.
bmwmike said:
What did Warren Buffet say?
"a church with a casino attached"https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ldQliNsbCiY?feature...
bmwmike said:
Indeed. And if you own VWRL or S&P 500 etc, then you already own a bit of AMD too.
Funnily enough I did used to have an individual holding of AMD. It had a really good day the back end of last year, maybe October/November time. I cashed out then as I getting a bit too wrapped up in individual stock performance.I'm in VHVG-Developed World and VFEG Emerging markets. I've never quite been able to convince myself just to go all in on the S&P 500. I think my developed world ETF is about 70% US weighted anyhow.
Well what a roller coaster. I was already heavily into Pacific & Japan, was 12% down compared with January at the lowest point, now 5% up.
Last week I doubled down on semiconductors, buying AMD and Micron directly, and holding TSMC, Hynix and Samsung via ETFs as it’s hard to buy Taiwan/Korean shares directly. Those are up a total of 20% in those 7 days, and a grand total of 100% up since October 2025.
With the big AI companies committing to spend another $600Bn in the rest of 2026, I’m holding on for what might be a wild ride.
Last week I doubled down on semiconductors, buying AMD and Micron directly, and holding TSMC, Hynix and Samsung via ETFs as it’s hard to buy Taiwan/Korean shares directly. Those are up a total of 20% in those 7 days, and a grand total of 100% up since October 2025.
With the big AI companies committing to spend another $600Bn in the rest of 2026, I’m holding on for what might be a wild ride.
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