S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?
Discussion
paulguitar said:
If everything ends up approximately where it was with the deal done by Obama many years ago, that will be a good result.
The deaths and increased prices for everyone have been for absolutely nothing.
The incompetence of the current US administration is dumbfounding.
The end result of this will be worse than the Obama deal with regards to control of nuclear, but this is really for elsewhere to discuss.The deaths and increased prices for everyone have been for absolutely nothing.
The incompetence of the current US administration is dumbfounding.
It's been a pointless, expensive, backwards s
t show.g4ry13 said:
I wouldn't be so sure.
Iran is saying no agreement has been finalised with the US. Iran and Oman have to decide the management of Hormuz.
I don’t think the market (investors) really care at this stage. We know it’s going to be resolved sooner rather than later and that further escalation is unlikely. The market is looking forward and is back to the massive earnings growth of AI/tech. What might be interesting though is how it reacts *if* Iran break the terms of agreement. After this latest earnings and (almost) Iran resolution the S&P has been given the green light. Iran is saying no agreement has been finalised with the US. Iran and Oman have to decide the management of Hormuz.
Phooey said:
I don t think the market (investors) really care at this stage. We know it s going to be resolved sooner rather than later and that further escalation is unlikely. The market is looking forward and is back to the massive earnings growth of AI/tech. What might be interesting though is how it reacts *if* Iran break the terms of agreement. After this latest earnings and (almost) Iran resolution the S&P has been given the green light.
Clearly the answer is for Musk to buy Iran and float it on the stock market 
Phooey said:
g4ry13 said:
I wouldn't be so sure.
Iran is saying no agreement has been finalised with the US. Iran and Oman have to decide the management of Hormuz.
I don t think the market (investors) really care at this stage. We know it s going to be resolved sooner rather than later and that further escalation is unlikely. The market is looking forward and is back to the massive earnings growth of AI/tech. What might be interesting though is how it reacts *if* Iran break the terms of agreement. After this latest earnings and (almost) Iran resolution the S&P has been given the green light. Iran is saying no agreement has been finalised with the US. Iran and Oman have to decide the management of Hormuz.
Still, there's still the mad IPOs upcoming to whip some more up before down
In my experience one good way to trim profits while avoiding trying to time the market is to have a fixed ratio that you want in stocks and bonds/ cash for example
As stocks rise and become too large a share, you sell some and put the money into bonds or cash as per your plan.
Equally if stocks have fallen you buy more selling bonds or using cash, buying the dip if you will buy in a structured and planned fashion.
Even better if you pre determine dates to do this (eg 6 monthly) it makes the whole process immune to the fear and greed impulse. It also automatically means you buy low and sell high. The exact opposite of what most amateur investors end up doing.
As stocks rise and become too large a share, you sell some and put the money into bonds or cash as per your plan.
Equally if stocks have fallen you buy more selling bonds or using cash, buying the dip if you will buy in a structured and planned fashion.
Even better if you pre determine dates to do this (eg 6 monthly) it makes the whole process immune to the fear and greed impulse. It also automatically means you buy low and sell high. The exact opposite of what most amateur investors end up doing.
We are still very much in a BTD theme so I expect todays -1% (-2% QQQ) dip to be bought in typical fashion. I had reduced some equity this year in one of our portfolios but will probably just hold now to see how quick 8000 on the S&P comes and re-weight then. For now I'm happy the US economy is good.
Phooey said:
We are still very much in a BTD theme so I expect todays -1% (-2% QQQ) dip to be bought in typical fashion. I had reduced some equity this year in one of our portfolios but will probably just hold now to see how quick 8000 on the S&P comes and re-weight then. For now I'm happy the US economy is good.
Today's action is apparently mainly about much higher than expected payroll numbers. You'd think that'd be good, but it's now reckoned it's certain that interest rates will have to increase. Trump's head will hopefully explode when that happens!Edited by Sheepshanks on Friday 5th June 16:38
Sheepshanks said:
Today action is apparently mainly about much higher than expected payroll numbers. You'd think that'd be good, but it's now reckoned it's certain that increase rates will have to increase. Trumps head will hopefully explode when that happens!
When good news is bad news 
You could argue the Fed should of raised rates already or shouldn't of cut when they did but when you have the opposite force (Trump) not taking inflation seriously you always run the risk of something breaking. You can't run it hot forever.
Phooey said:
when you have the opposite force (Trump) not taking inflation seriously you always run the risk of something breaking. You can't run it hot forever.
This is very much my view. We're now almost at mid-summer with no sign of an end to Trump's "only two weeks and it's not a war" which began at the end of February. I don't see any way that's going to come to sudden end. And even if it did come to a sudden end it would take months for the energy supply chain to get back to anything near normal. Meanwhile fuel prices are through the roof and and the next potential shortage is said to be gasoline/petrol. So this is getting well and truly baked into ongoing inflation both in the US and elsewhere.
Winter 2026/27 has the potential to be a rough ride. Any wobble on "earnings" and markets could react pretty severely.
Panamax said:
This is very much my view. We're now almost at mid-summer with no sign of an end to Trump's "only two weeks and it's not a war" which began at the end of February. I don't see any way that's going to come to sudden end. And even if it did come to a sudden end it would take months for the energy supply chain to get back to anything near normal.
Meanwhile fuel prices are through the roof and and the next potential shortage is said to be gasoline/petrol. So this is getting well and truly baked into ongoing inflation both in the US and elsewhere.
Winter 2026/27 has the potential to be a rough ride. Any wobble on "earnings" and markets could react pretty severely.
The SoH closure doesn't seem to be concerning markets enough IMO... maybe the markets are right and todays energy shortage matters much less than previous oil shortages, but the longer it goes on the higher inflation goes and if; 1/ Fed ignores it - markets keep going to the moon and inflation stays above target. Or 2/ - (meaningful) rate rises pull equity markets into a downward spiral as consumers (70% of the economy) slow spending on discretionary goods.Meanwhile fuel prices are through the roof and and the next potential shortage is said to be gasoline/petrol. So this is getting well and truly baked into ongoing inflation both in the US and elsewhere.
Winter 2026/27 has the potential to be a rough ride. Any wobble on "earnings" and markets could react pretty severely.
Panamax said:
This, IMO, is the real risk. Businesses can't sell anything to anyone if customers simply stop buying - which will be an entirely rational reaction to runaway inflation.
I’ve always found it very difficult to actually trade anything based on this because a lot is so nuanced but for anyone who wants decent research free, sign up to Dr.Slok, at Apollo, you get their research in a daily email and if they don’t have the resources to try to make sense then no one has.Jobs numbers are strong but housing sales in Austin are weak and thats a tell, same as visits to the Statue of Liberty are down 20% year on year.
Like all macro data trying to act on it assumes the user has full understanding of the implications which I don’t but I like the emails as they are free and from a reputable source
DaveA8 said:
I ve always found it very difficult to actually trade anything based on this because a lot is so nuanced but for anyone who wants decent research free, sign up to Dr.Slok, at Apollo, you get their research in a daily email and if they don t have the resources to try to make sense then no one has.
Jobs numbers are strong but housing sales in Austin are weak and thats a tell, same as visits to the Statue of Liberty are down 20% year on year.
Like all macro data trying to act on it assumes the user has full understanding of the implications which I don t but I like the emails as they are free and from a reputable source
Austin has been expanding it's population at a high rate the last decade as lots of people have moved there from other states, California in particular.Jobs numbers are strong but housing sales in Austin are weak and thats a tell, same as visits to the Statue of Liberty are down 20% year on year.
Like all macro data trying to act on it assumes the user has full understanding of the implications which I don t but I like the emails as they are free and from a reputable source
That exodus had to slow down eventually, so i wouldn't read too much into housing numbers for Austin and translate that nationally.
Visits to national monuments are down as USA has lost some footfall thanks to Trump. Again, not a good indication of the wider economy.
732NM said:
Austin has been expanding it's population at a high rate the last decade as lots of people have moved there from other states, California in particular.
That exodus had to slow down eventually, so i wouldn't read too much into housing numbers for Austin and translate that nationally.
Visits to national monuments are down as USA has lost some footfall thanks to Trump. Again, not a good indication of the wider economy.
If you had actually read my post properly instead trying to prove yourself more knowledgeable than me, you’d have noticed I said I don’t trade on these things because I don’t understand them deeply enough but that Apollo was a good source of information. That exodus had to slow down eventually, so i wouldn't read too much into housing numbers for Austin and translate that nationally.
Visits to national monuments are down as USA has lost some footfall thanks to Trump. Again, not a good indication of the wider economy.
DaveA8 said:
732NM said:
Austin has been expanding it's population at a high rate the last decade as lots of people have moved there from other states, California in particular.
That exodus had to slow down eventually, so i wouldn't read too much into housing numbers for Austin and translate that nationally.
Visits to national monuments are down as USA has lost some footfall thanks to Trump. Again, not a good indication of the wider economy.
If you had actually read my post properly instead trying to prove yourself more knowledgeable than me, you d have noticed I said I don t trade on these things because I don t understand them deeply enough but that Apollo was a good source of information. That exodus had to slow down eventually, so i wouldn't read too much into housing numbers for Austin and translate that nationally.
Visits to national monuments are down as USA has lost some footfall thanks to Trump. Again, not a good indication of the wider economy.
I wouldn't sell my Spy holdings if I was an amateur investor but I wouldn't be buying it either.
Just look at the concentration....
Twice USA GDP also.
Berkshire is the new index plus you are buying in dollars which could also cut the losses n a crash.
We could be on a 5 year tear from here.
Inverse teh general public is my advice. Look at Space x only 4% of equity floating all pre float investors stand to make a fortune and Joe Public drinks the Kool Aid and is down 70% in 6 month time
Just look at the concentration....
Twice USA GDP also.
Berkshire is the new index plus you are buying in dollars which could also cut the losses n a crash.
We could be on a 5 year tear from here.
Inverse teh general public is my advice. Look at Space x only 4% of equity floating all pre float investors stand to make a fortune and Joe Public drinks the Kool Aid and is down 70% in 6 month time
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