S&P500 at record highs - time to stay in or pull out?
Discussion
PhilboSE said:
keo said:
pingu393 said:
7% growth since 12/04/2026.
That's 50% more than I earned by working last year. Unbelievable.
Luckily, it's all inside tax-free wrappers, either a SIPP or an ISA.
Just checked mine I have done slightly worse at 6.4%That's 50% more than I earned by working last year. Unbelievable.
Luckily, it's all inside tax-free wrappers, either a SIPP or an ISA.
PhilboSE said:
Do I win at 38% up?
Haha yes! What are you invested in? I roughly 25% Lifestratergy 100 and 75% US equity fund. Don’t know if I am doing it right but it’s been ok for the last 5.5 years or so. Put money in, forget about it. Hopefully be pleasantly surprised once time and compounding have worked.keo said:
PhilboSE said:
Do I win at 38% up?
Haha yes! What are you invested in? I roughly 25% Lifestratergy 100 and 75% US equity fund. Don t know if I am doing it right but it s been ok for the last 5.5 years or so. Put money in, forget about it. Hopefully be pleasantly surprised once time and compounding have worked.Bad day yesterday though, so I “lost” a healthy PH Director’s salary in a day. Eastern markets back up again though this morning so if the US follows suit when it opens it should all come back…
It’s a rollercoaster and the trick will be when to decide to get off.
keo said:
my plan is to just hold and draw down in the distant future. Hopefully!
That is, in general, the best long term plan. Just be aware what you are holding. For example, something like 92% of the gains in US market value has come exclusively from the Fab7, who are currently sounding their cash piles on building AI datacentres. PhilboSE said:
Kind of detailed further up the thread, but I was heavily into Pacific & Japan OIECs for the past few years, they started to make good gains so I looked into what was driving them, so I swapped into ETFs more focused on those stocks in April (TSMC, Hynix, Samsung) then about 20 days ago I trebled down and took some positions in individual US shares (AMD, Intel, Micron, sandisk etc). All driven by the AI boys throwing money at data centres, so it s a short term strategy but the gains have been crazy.
Bad day yesterday though, so I lost a healthy PH Director s salary in a day. Eastern markets back up again though this morning so if the US follows suit when it opens it should all come back
It s a rollercoaster and the trick will be when to decide to get off.
I wonder how much of the negative action on chips yesterday was due to Nvidia's Jensen Huang not being on the trip to China? He's now jumped on though, so maybe they'll recover today.Bad day yesterday though, so I lost a healthy PH Director s salary in a day. Eastern markets back up again though this morning so if the US follows suit when it opens it should all come back
It s a rollercoaster and the trick will be when to decide to get off.
Some of the increases in the last 6 weeks are bizarre. Some are 5x in that time.
Abc321 said:
I am a huge novice here but have tried to do the basics (diversify - diff countries, areas, etc) and ended up 30% up now, after starting in early June of last year. Plan was/is to keep dripping in monthly/quarterly to max ISA allowance each year until retirement age but I'm a little worried there is a bit of a bubble and this jump will drop!
Interested to see other peoples thoughts on this? Again, I am very much an amateur here.
Very interesting to look back on this post after seeing today I am 38% up today. It will go bang I'm sure. No idea why its going like it is and obviously the issue is I should have put more in!Interested to see other peoples thoughts on this? Again, I am very much an amateur here.
To be completely honest it was a conversation with ChatGPT that gave me the recommendations. Would be very keen to know where I am exposed.
Abc321 said:
The average of all those isn t 38.9% but my main timeline says so? Admittedly have sold a bit and bought a bit throughout the last 12 months or so, but Id be interested to hear you chaps input
Do the same for everything else, and whatever the total number of units you have above 100 is the percentage increase.
I'm guessing that you have some stuff lower in the screen, as the total only adds up to 92%, but the total growth on what is shown is 11.5%.
102.5611 / 92 = 1.11479
Edited by pingu393 on Thursday 14th May 22:44
Inlineonline said:
Statistically if you sell before a crash then buy back you will do worse than just holding.
Some of the best rises come after and among the largest falls and missing those kills your long term returns
Unless you can predict the timing of the market.
Yes. I've done this, but despite the loss I felt safer than I did when it crashing and I was doing nothing about it.Some of the best rises come after and among the largest falls and missing those kills your long term returns
Unless you can predict the timing of the market.
If it's profits you are losing, then it's much easier to absorb. It's not so easy if you are losing your original investment.
If you invest 100, it grows to 125 and starts dropping, the fall doesn't really hurt until it gets below 100.
I started at 100, it dropped to 85, and I bailed. I rejoined at 90, but I was ok with that.
I'm now at around 175, so there's a long way to drop before I'd think about bailing again.
pingu393 said:
Inlineonline said:
Statistically if you sell before a crash then buy back you will do worse than just holding.
Some of the best rises come after and among the largest falls and missing those kills your long term returns
Unless you can predict the timing of the market.
Yes. I've done this, but despite the loss I felt safer than I did when it crashing and I was doing nothing about it.Some of the best rises come after and among the largest falls and missing those kills your long term returns
Unless you can predict the timing of the market.
If it's profits you are losing, then it's much easier to absorb. It's not so easy if you are losing your original investment.
If you invest 100, it grows to 125 and starts dropping, the fall doesn't really hurt until it gets below 100.
I started at 100, it dropped to 85, and I bailed. I rejoined at 90, but I was ok with that.
I'm now at around 175, so there's a long way to drop before I'd think about bailing again.
Logically it makes no sense but psychologically it is a real thing.
It's another reason for 'Time in the Market' as once you have been in for a while, you will usually be so far above your initial investment that even quite a big fall feels like just losing some paper profits rather than actual money, and it's much easier to hold with that mindset.
We're not rational things us humans, that's half the problem!
I sold all my easy access savings about 12 months ago because I thought the world was going to s
t in a handcart.
It is going to st in a handcart but the stock market is entirely detached from reality (IMO) at the moment. Yes, it can stay illogical longer than I can stay solvent, but valuations are mad, the entire US market is propped up by AI dreams and for some reason the rest of the world seems entirely unconcerned by the loss of physical oil and gas flows out the ME.
It almost feels as if there is so much money sloshing around looking for a home, more of people's pensions and 401K's are just going into simple tracker funds, greed is a powerful motivator, and so the stock markets have largely become a self-fulfilling prophecy disconnected from NPV, discounted future earnings, PvE, whatever other metric you may wish to choose.
It will end in tears at some point, one would assume.
t in a handcart. It is going to s
t in a handcart but the stock market is entirely detached from reality (IMO) at the moment. Yes, it can stay illogical longer than I can stay solvent, but valuations are mad, the entire US market is propped up by AI dreams and for some reason the rest of the world seems entirely unconcerned by the loss of physical oil and gas flows out the ME. It almost feels as if there is so much money sloshing around looking for a home, more of people's pensions and 401K's are just going into simple tracker funds, greed is a powerful motivator, and so the stock markets have largely become a self-fulfilling prophecy disconnected from NPV, discounted future earnings, PvE, whatever other metric you may wish to choose.
It will end in tears at some point, one would assume.
Condi said:
I sold all my easy access savings about 12 months ago because I thought the world was going to st in a handcart.
It is going to st in a handcart but the stock market is entirely detached from reality (IMO) at the moment. Yes, it can stay illogical longer than I can stay solvent, but valuations are mad, the entire US market is propped up by AI dreams and for some reason the rest of the world seems entirely unconcerned by the loss of physical oil and gas flows out the ME.
It almost feels as if there is so much money sloshing around looking for a home, more of people's pensions and 401K's are just going into simple tracker funds, greed is a powerful motivator, and so the stock markets have largely become a self-fulfilling prophecy disconnected from NPV, discounted future earnings, PvE, whatever other metric you may wish to choose.
It will end in tears at some point, one would assume.
Podcast and the internet have clued everyone up on tracker funds, during a period of high inflation and we're all just throwing money in each month regardless holding for the long term? People learned from COVID just to hold on?t in a handcart. It is going to s
t in a handcart but the stock market is entirely detached from reality (IMO) at the moment. Yes, it can stay illogical longer than I can stay solvent, but valuations are mad, the entire US market is propped up by AI dreams and for some reason the rest of the world seems entirely unconcerned by the loss of physical oil and gas flows out the ME. It almost feels as if there is so much money sloshing around looking for a home, more of people's pensions and 401K's are just going into simple tracker funds, greed is a powerful motivator, and so the stock markets have largely become a self-fulfilling prophecy disconnected from NPV, discounted future earnings, PvE, whatever other metric you may wish to choose.
It will end in tears at some point, one would assume.
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