Labours first budget and likely outcomes
Discussion
ooid said:
Today, officially the press picked up the data. The property companies (housebuilders, REITS and etc...) lost massive value since the budget. The biggest lost since actually Liz Truss show.
https://www.ft.com/content/13b83ee0-7967-4323-8aa7...
Some Karl Marx lovers out there, might claim they are not 'working people' but these are essentially one of the most effective companies that create jobs in UK and have positive impact on economy. Not to mention, most of UK's population pensions (at some level) Invested in these, so any value drop in them, immediate effect on everyone.
Well done.
Not goodhttps://www.ft.com/content/13b83ee0-7967-4323-8aa7...
Some Karl Marx lovers out there, might claim they are not 'working people' but these are essentially one of the most effective companies that create jobs in UK and have positive impact on economy. Not to mention, most of UK's population pensions (at some level) Invested in these, so any value drop in them, immediate effect on everyone.
Well done.
ooid said:
Today, officially the press picked up the data. The property companies (housebuilders, REITS and etc...) lost massive value since the budget. The biggest lost since actually Liz Truss show.
https://www.ft.com/content/13b83ee0-7967-4323-8aa7...
Some Karl Marx lovers out there, might claim they are not 'working people' but these are essentially one of the most effective companies that create jobs in UK and have positive impact on economy. Not to mention, most of UK's population pensions (at some level) Invested in these, so any value drop in them, immediate effect on everyone.
Well done.
Shares are all nicely up today…https://www.ft.com/content/13b83ee0-7967-4323-8aa7...
Some Karl Marx lovers out there, might claim they are not 'working people' but these are essentially one of the most effective companies that create jobs in UK and have positive impact on economy. Not to mention, most of UK's population pensions (at some level) Invested in these, so any value drop in them, immediate effect on everyone.
Well done.
Reeves Might Have to Raise Taxes Again as Early as the Spring
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/21139-...
Great new.......
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/21139-...
Great new.......
J210 said:
Reeves Might Have to Raise Taxes Again as Early as the Spring
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/21139-...
Great new.......
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/21139-...
Great new.......
I've been musing over the state of the UK economy and the impact Labour's actions are likely to have on it.
Inflation has recently ticked up, and the public sector pay rises and the employer's NI increase are both inflationary.
The economy isn't growing.
We also face a potential economic hit if Trump follows through on his promise to impose import tariffs.
Meanwhile, the official unemployment rate is relatively low, at 4.3%...
So, we have inflationary pressures, no meaningful economic growth, and high unemployment.
Inflation has recently ticked up, and the public sector pay rises and the employer's NI increase are both inflationary.
The economy isn't growing.
The FT said:
The UK economy barely grew in the third quarter and contracted in September, in a blow to the Labour government’s plans to deliver higher growth.
GDP rose just 0.1 per cent as the country’s dominant services sector struggled during the three months to September, less than consensus expectations of 0.2 per cent and well below the second quarter’s 0.5 per cent.
Raising CGT, and making it more expensive for companies to employ people isn't going to help grow the economy. GDP rose just 0.1 per cent as the country’s dominant services sector struggled during the three months to September, less than consensus expectations of 0.2 per cent and well below the second quarter’s 0.5 per cent.
We also face a potential economic hit if Trump follows through on his promise to impose import tariffs.
Meanwhile, the official unemployment rate is relatively low, at 4.3%...
BBC said:
..which is about 1.5 million people.
However, the unemployed represent only a small part of the nearly 11 million working-age people who don't have a paid job.
About 9.3 million of them are not called "unemployed". That is because they are not actively looking for work, or available to start a job.
Instead people in this group are called "economically inactive".
In fact, more of them say they want a job - 1.9 million people - than are officially unemployed - 1.5 million.
That means there are far more people who say they are available to or want to work than there are vacancies - 0.8 million.
And the number of vacancies has been falling consistently for the last two years.
Source: BBC NewsHowever, the unemployed represent only a small part of the nearly 11 million working-age people who don't have a paid job.
About 9.3 million of them are not called "unemployed". That is because they are not actively looking for work, or available to start a job.
Instead people in this group are called "economically inactive".
In fact, more of them say they want a job - 1.9 million people - than are officially unemployed - 1.5 million.
That means there are far more people who say they are available to or want to work than there are vacancies - 0.8 million.
And the number of vacancies has been falling consistently for the last two years.
So, we have inflationary pressures, no meaningful economic growth, and high unemployment.
Wikipedia said:
Stagflation refers to an economic condition characterized by a simultaneous occurrence of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment.
To be sure, this isn't a slam dunk but it feels to me like there's a meaningful risk here. The kneejerk reaction would be to increase exposure to US equities and USD-denominated assets but I'm wondering what the rest of the PH hive mind is thinking. MadCaptainJack said:
To be sure, this isn't a slam dunk but it feels to me like there's a meaningful risk here. The kneejerk reaction would be to increase exposure to US equities and USD-denominated assets but I'm wondering what the rest of the PH hive mind is thinking.
That level of unemployment and vacancies, is still close to natural churn; little the government is doing will help that and it's probably going to get worse. The latter, is returning to pre pandemic levels, after a spike, but could continue downwards. We definitely don't have high unemployment - yet. Economically inactive is higher in wealthy countries as we have stay at home partners, early retirees and independently wealthy in the mix, only a third of those are long term sick etc. That still looks like a lot and is going in the wrong direction. However, as has been seen before, it's a political minefield to even attempt to address it - despite the hypocrisy I hope labour do, but I expect they won't. Tariffs in the US should fuel inflation - leading to higher interest rates and more costs to industry. That doesn't sound like a good place for equities. Gilts maybe, but what happens in the US is not going to leave the rest of the world unaffected.
Edited by Graveworm on Friday 29th November 10:34
"Public services now need to live within their means because I'm really clear, I'm not coming back with more borrowing or more taxes," she said.
Fast forward to April 2025....
"When I stated, and let's be clear about his, that I would not be coming back with more borrowing or more taxes, I was of course referring to the fiscal year 2024-2025.
There you go Rache, you can have that one for free
Fast forward to April 2025....
"When I stated, and let's be clear about his, that I would not be coming back with more borrowing or more taxes, I was of course referring to the fiscal year 2024-2025.
There you go Rache, you can have that one for free
Community pharmacies are under greater threat as a result of Labour’s National Insurance hike. Analysis of Reeves’s budget grabs has found a predicted increase in costs to pharmacies of £200 million a year, according to Community Pharmacy England. Hospitals will be exempt from Reeves' damaging changes, however, pharmacies, GP surgeries and care homes are among those currently not exempted. Pensioners will take another hit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensioners-suffe...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensioners-suffe...
turbobloke said:
Community pharmacies are under greater threat as a result of Labour’s National Insurance hike. Analysis of Reeves’s budget grabs has found a predicted increase in costs to pharmacies of £200 million a year, according to Community Pharmacy England. Hospitals will be exempt from Reeves' damaging changes, however, pharmacies, GP surgeries and care homes are among those currently not exempted. Pensioners will take another hit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensioners-suffe...
10% of the total number of pharmacies shut in the last five years of the Conservative Govt…..but for some reason that didn’t seem to bother you?https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensioners-suffe...
Bobtherallyfan said:
turbobloke said:
Community pharmacies are under greater threat as a result of Labour’s National Insurance hike. Analysis of Reeves’s budget grabs has found a predicted increase in costs to pharmacies of £200 million a year, according to Community Pharmacy England. Hospitals will be exempt from Reeves' damaging changes, however, pharmacies, GP surgeries and care homes are among those currently not exempted. Pensioners will take another hit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensioners-suffe...
10% of the total number of pharmacies shut in the last five years of the Conservative Govt…..but for some reason that didn’t seem to bother you?https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensioners-suffe...
Labour's NIC hike is causing even more problems, including to GP surgeries, hospices and care homes as well as pharmacies. Driven by ideology, Labour didn't think beyond hospitals due to being blessed with an unusually high level of indifferent incompetence.
turbobloke said:
Bobtherallyfan said:
turbobloke said:
Community pharmacies are under greater threat as a result of Labour’s National Insurance hike. Analysis of Reeves’s budget grabs has found a predicted increase in costs to pharmacies of £200 million a year, according to Community Pharmacy England. Hospitals will be exempt from Reeves' damaging changes, however, pharmacies, GP surgeries and care homes are among those currently not exempted. Pensioners will take another hit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensioners-suffe...
10% of the total number of pharmacies shut in the last five years of the Conservative Govt…..but for some reason that didn’t seem to bother you?https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensioners-suffe...
Labour's NIC hike is causing even more problems, including to GP surgeries, hospices and care homes as well as pharmacies. Driven by ideology, Labour didn't think beyond hospitals due to being blessed with an unusually high level of indifferent incompetence.
pingu393 said:
turbobloke said:
Bobtherallyfan said:
turbobloke said:
Community pharmacies are under greater threat as a result of Labour’s National Insurance hike. Analysis of Reeves’s budget grabs has found a predicted increase in costs to pharmacies of £200 million a year, according to Community Pharmacy England. Hospitals will be exempt from Reeves' damaging changes, however, pharmacies, GP surgeries and care homes are among those currently not exempted. Pensioners will take another hit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensioners-suffe...
10% of the total number of pharmacies shut in the last five years of the Conservative Govt…..but for some reason that didn’t seem to bother you?https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/pensioners-suffe...
Labour's NIC hike is causing even more problems, including to GP surgeries, hospices and care homes as well as pharmacies. Driven by ideology, Labour didn't think beyond hospitals due to being blessed with an unusually high level of indifferent incompetence.
There targetted actions against SME's were definitely intentionally destructive. And you current lot have picked up the baton and run with it.
Im sure there were others that will come to mind.
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