Labours first budget and likely outcomes
Discussion
Inflation has been mismanaged right from the start of this cycle back in 2021 it was not traditional inflation as it was being pushed onto the economy via outside influences it wasn't too much money chasing too few goods in a rampantly growing economy, what they have managed to do is dampen what growth there was, strip what little head room most people had and to no effect so we have the worst of all worlds. (inflation came down on its own as those outside factors waned)
The path to lowering interest rates is now blocked and therefore so is our path to any growth, we will have falling sales, rising prices and of course rising unemployment.
It's not all labours fault but they have made a dogs breakfast of their part, Andrew Bailey has a lot to answer for as well.
Not wishing to go too O/T, but inflation was the fault of the (Tory) government’s response to COVID by firehosing the economy with unnecessary stimulus and lockdowns.
Other external factors do have an effect on inflation (Ukraine), but that’s gone now. This government will cause inflation increases due to their massive tax and public sector spending hikes, along with additional regulations. At the same time, economic growth falls, and we end up in stagflation.
Both the Tory and Labour governments have been useless recently: can we have some grown ups in government please? (Nobody with morals stands as an MP these days, sadly)
Other external factors do have an effect on inflation (Ukraine), but that’s gone now. This government will cause inflation increases due to their massive tax and public sector spending hikes, along with additional regulations. At the same time, economic growth falls, and we end up in stagflation.
Both the Tory and Labour governments have been useless recently: can we have some grown ups in government please? (Nobody with morals stands as an MP these days, sadly)
V12GT said:
Not wishing to go too O/T, but inflation was the fault of the (Tory) government’s response to COVID by firehosing the economy with unnecessary stimulus and lockdowns.
C'mon, it was only £800bn of free money thrown around. Nothing really. Let's also remember, Labour were screaming that we needed to lock down quicker, longer and do more too.
Those evil Tories were not giving people enough money to get through lockdowns.
But even this week in PMQ's Starmer mentioned a £22bn deficit.
I hope he keeps mentioning it too, as the more he does the more the public realise they are pretty much all morons, on both sides.
Even if true, It is a rounding error.
Ed.Neumann said:
V12GT said:
Not wishing to go too O/T, but inflation was the fault of the (Tory) government’s response to COVID by firehosing the economy with unnecessary stimulus and lockdowns.
C'mon, it was only £800bn of free money thrown around. Nothing really. Let's also remember, Labour were screaming that we needed to lock down quicker, longer and do more too.
Those evil Tories were not giving people enough money to get through lockdowns.
But even this week in PMQ's Starmer mentioned a £22bn deficit.
I hope he keeps mentioning it too, as the more he does the more the public realise they are pretty much all morons, on both sides.
Even if true, It is a rounding error.
No bracket needed. it was the response of the government, on both sides.
Ed.Neumann said:
V12GT said:
Not wishing to go too O/T, but inflation was the fault of the (Tory) government’s response to COVID by firehosing the economy with unnecessary stimulus and lockdowns.
C'mon, it was only £800bn of free money thrown around. Nothing really. Let's also remember, Labour were screaming that we needed to lock down quicker, longer and do more too.
Those evil Tories were not giving people enough money to get through lockdowns.
But even this week in PMQ's Starmer mentioned a £22bn deficit.
I hope he keeps mentioning it too, as the more he does the more the public realise they are pretty much all morons, on both sides.
Even if true, It is a rounding error.
Outcomes for us today. The NI hike has led our company to make the decision to give a 2% rise in January which is the lowest it's been in over 10 years. They actually stated the Autumn budget was why. For the UK based staff, the NHS have decided to spend less on our products meaning we are at 78% of our planned budget resulting in no bonus payout for the first time I can remember in 20 years. Thankfully I'm bonused out of EMEA, and the region is doing a lot better but some of my old colleagues are not happy.
toon10 said:
Outcomes for us today. The NI hike has led our company to make the decision to give a 2% rise in January which is the lowest it's been in over 10 years. They actually stated the Autumn budget was why. For the UK based staff, the NHS have decided to spend less on our products meaning we are at 78% of our planned budget resulting in no bonus payout for the first time I can remember in 20 years. Thankfully I'm bonused out of EMEA, and the region is doing a lot better but some of my old colleagues are not happy.
This is why I find complaints amusing. I'm not picking on you, I run a business and know it's tough.- NI hike is April 2025, hasn't happened yet although you can plan for it
- Spending less on your products is just business, you have options, we'll be spending more. If your budget is cramped it's not due to labour.
- complaining about being bonused out would put you on my s
t list if it was my company.What would you change if you could?
toon10 said:
Outcomes for us today. The NI hike has led our company to make the decision to give a 2% rise in January which is the lowest it's been in over 10 years. They actually stated the Autumn budget was why. For the UK based staff, the NHS have decided to spend less on our products meaning we are at 78% of our planned budget resulting in no bonus payout for the first time I can remember in 20 years. Thankfully I'm bonused out of EMEA, and the region is doing a lot better but some of my old colleagues are not happy.
Every business doing cuts/poor pay rises and the like will blame the budget, whether true or not. It’s a lot easier to name the budget rather than say Steve/Jennifer the CEO wants to buy their partner a 3rd Lamborghini this year. The decisions higher up in my company are a s
t show to be honest, but it’s getting pushed on us that we need to do a lot more in a lot less time to be competitive, rather than they made things far worse with a big reorganization causing it to be far less efficient. J210 said:
The pound has been smashed the last few days.
Feels like a perfect storm. Dollar gets stronger on Feds words. Pound weakens on BOE words and has no way to help it self due to the economic forecasts.
Labour will repeat the same fake excuses, the BBC and Guardian will parrot Labour's excuses as though they're real and make sense, onwards and sideways.Feels like a perfect storm. Dollar gets stronger on Feds words. Pound weakens on BOE words and has no way to help it self due to the economic forecasts.
NRS said:
toon10 said:
Outcomes for us today. The NI hike has led our company to make the decision to give a 2% rise in January which is the lowest it's been in over 10 years. They actually stated the Autumn budget was why. For the UK based staff, the NHS have decided to spend less on our products meaning we are at 78% of our planned budget resulting in no bonus payout for the first time I can remember in 20 years. Thankfully I'm bonused out of EMEA, and the region is doing a lot better but some of my old colleagues are not happy.
Every business doing cuts/poor pay rises and the like will blame the budget, whether true or not. It’s a lot easier to name the budget rather than say Steve/Jennifer the CEO wants to buy their partner a 3rd Lamborghini this year. The decisions higher up in my company are a s
t show to be honest, but it’s getting pushed on us that we need to do a lot more in a lot less time to be competitive, rather than they made things far worse with a big reorganization causing it to be far less efficient. J210 said:
Shnozz said:
Against the dollar perhaps but it’s high against the euro.
The euro is in more of a decline than the pound so hardly something to write home about Growth is going to be a problem for Labour, but the continual comparison to the US doesn't help. It's not a peer it's banded about as one for simple comparison but it's not. You wouldn't compare Welling United to Manchester City, it's not in the same ballpark.
Drawing comparisons to EU countries like France IS a reasonable barometer of policy success, both being at the mercy of $ strength and indebted govt policy.
With the UK having lower risk to Trump sanctions (our exports are mainly services), we are going to be in a better position relative to peers.
Right now labour need to be concerned about stimulating the economy and managing debt. Neither of to a great start bit they need to fix a broken economy. Something that started decades ago and continued under BOTH Labour and Conservative government. Whilst I don't agree with many policies or vote for Labour, there isn't a snowballs chance in he'll the situation would be better under the Tories right now.
turbobloke said:
Long-term who knows, though in the 100 days post-election I cannot see how the Tories could depress consumer confidence and business confidence so rapidly or to the same depths. After all they were in power when both indices hadn't been sunk in a self-inflicted manner.
Really? You don't remember Liz Truss? As for strong and stable government? The Tories are so prone to in fighting right now, no one takes them seriously. In fact it's the Trussterfk that is limiting any silliness Labour want to unleash.100 days is a comical observation period. This is year's, probably decades long fix for both the UK economy and the Tories.
Take 1 look over the channel and see what political instability does to your economy. France now pays Greek yields and Germany is looking likely to lose its AAA rating. Canada also voting for instability.
No matter how bad you might think it is here, it could be a lot worse.
Thinking we are somehow comparible to the US is a misstep. No matter how much we will gtumble and Labour make it painful, we are not falling out the G7 like a few near neighbours will.
V12GT said:
Other external factors do have an effect on inflation (Ukraine), but that’s gone now. This government will cause inflation increases due to their massive tax and public sector spending hikes, along with additional regulations. At the same time, economic growth falls, and we end up in stagflation.
Both the Tory and Labour governments have been useless recently: can we have some grown ups in government please? (Nobody with morals stands as an MP these days, sadly)
Both the Tory and Labour governments have been useless recently: can we have some grown ups in government please? (Nobody with morals stands as an MP these days, sadly)
Yes, the crude oil price spike caused by the Ukraine invasion and Russian oil supply cuts, is over now.
A serious aspect concerning energy, is the much higher cost of UK electricity compared with many other industrial countries.
Very harmful to UK manufacturing.
The much increased oil production in USA (shale) has reduced their energy costs. China is using 65% cheap coal to generate electricity. Somewhat ironic that they are the worlds biggest battery car producing country.
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