Is anyone moving now?

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Discussion

T1547

1,091 posts

133 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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Maximus_Meridius101 said:
Because at 95% LTV they can’t afford it. A 6 percent downward fluctuation in the market value puts them in negative equity. 6 percent is a rat fart, economically speaking. This is a massive time bomb. It’s not the fault of the people taking up the offers, it seems they are a bit hard of thinking, but when the st hits the fan ( probably in the next year or so ) they will be all over the meejases belly aching about how they’re about to get turfed out of their rental ( pretty much ).
I’m not sure it’s fair to say they can’t afford it and I’m sure for many it’s a case of what are the alternatives in that situation (5% deposit). Do they carry on renting (dead money) and they would have seen what has happened to house prices if they’d taken the decision a year ago to hold fire due to market uncertainty, i.e. they’d be considerably further away from their prior house goals due to the substantial price increases.

I think if one thing can be said for certain it’s that no one can predict what future house prices will do. Admittedly if I had %5 deposit at this stage in proceedings I’d be haggling hard or probably giving serious thought to leaving it 6 months to see if the market cools off. Although that could easily be at the cost of another £10k in rent.

DanL

6,177 posts

264 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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Maximus_Meridius101 said:
Flooble said:
I think he was concerned that (as fesuvious has referred to) that people are rushing in before the Stamp Duty relief ends and thus although they may theoretically have 5% equity in reality the price they have paid is 10% or more higher than it should be (because of the artificial pressure). Which means that after Stamp Duty comes back and the pressure is released, prices may drop back. And suddenly the 5% equity is now 5% negative equity. Trapping people in their starter home and all the other things we've seen before.
Yep that’s about right.
I’m not sure (outside of first time buyers) that the stamp duty holiday is as much of a driver for pricing as Covid is…

In my view the switch to working from home, and likely continued “hybrid” WFH for many, will have driven prices for homes with more space (inside and/or outside) more than the stamp duty holiday. Similarly, I’d think demand in locations where a daily commute isn’t do-able but once or twice a week might be acceptable in exchange for space will also have lifted prices more than saving a bit of tax does.

Flooble

5,565 posts

99 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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DanL said:
I’m not sure (outside of first time buyers) that the stamp duty holiday is as much of a driver for pricing as Covid is…

In my view the switch to working from home, and likely continued “hybrid” WFH for many, will have driven prices for homes with more space (inside and/or outside) more than the stamp duty holiday. Similarly, I’d think demand in locations where a daily commute isn’t do-able but once or twice a week might be acceptable in exchange for space will also have lifted prices more than saving a bit of tax does.
Entirely possible, but either way the market is somewhat bonkers at the moment. Someone mentioned their flat went on Rightmove and had double-digit viewings booked within a few hours. If a house is advertised on a Monday and viewings are only available during working hours you'd better either skive off work or buy sight unseen, because it almost certainly won't be available by the point you have managed to book some time off!

Whatever the driver, people are being pressured into making big decisions quickly. The days of "drive past the house to see what the neighbourhood is like; viewing; offer; second viewing" type stuff are long gone. Now it's almost a case of buy it now (online) the moment it appears for sale and hope it matches up to expectations.

I do also wonder a bit about the "this commute wasn't doable before, but twice a week will be okay" escape to the country. I'm suspicious about the possible tensions that may arise when people experience long-distance commuting for real, having worked consultancy jobs for decades where travel (and working from home when not travelling) was the norm.

Say you were prepared to do say 45 minutes each way 5 days a week before = 450 minutes of commuting per week. Now, thanks for only needing to be in two days a week, you feel an hour and a half will be okay. 360 minutes of commuting per week. So you save a total of 90 minutes over your previous existence and you get a bigger house/garden/whatever. Sounds decent.

Except that thanks to prices zooming up, you are probably looking at only a marginal gain - the first movers may have traded a 3-bed semi with a postage stamp garden for a 4 bed detached with an acre of grounds, but now everyone wants the country house and fewer people want the 3-bed semi. So the house you want is more expensive and the house you are selling has stayed static. Hence moving now for your money you only get a 3-bed detached with a slightly bigger garden. And in return to do that 1.5 hour commute you probably want a nicer car - a clapped out Focus might have been tolerable for 45 minutes, but 1.5 hours sitting in it is going to have your back aching etc. You are also far more likely to end up in a traffic jam(s) on a commute that is twice as long - and when 1.5 hours stretches into 2 hours it's more irritating than 45 minutes becoming an hour.

Then we will have the inevitable creep of presenteeism - "I know your office days are Tuesday and Thursday, but there's an all-hands meeting on Wednesday you really need to be here for" type stuff. And in the winter that 1.5 hour commute will potentially mean getting up in the cold and dark, defrosting the car, and arriving home in the cold and dark. If it's by train there is a big difference between a direct train standing up for 45 minutes reading a book and a longer 1.5 hour journey probably with a connection to your rural hideway - the newly renationalised train companies are probably going to be as efficient as always. So half the time you'll be missing connections and finding 1.5 hours is more like 2.5 hours. From experience it really makes a huge difference if you get home at 1830 or 1930. 1830 gives you time for an evening, 1930 gives you time to grab dinner and go to bed. It will grate, even if the pay-off is rolling out of bed at 0855 the next day.

I'm not saying the above miserable picture will become common, but there will be an impact on prices even if it only affects a small percentage (along with the inevitable "regret" when the other half misses friends/family and children miss their old school). Basically a see-saw. No different to how the cost of paddling pools goes up when it's warm.

Add in the potential that - at some point - people will (I hope, anyway) tire of lockdowns and make it clear to the the scientists that they aren't going to live with the permanent threat of hospitality closures and you have a pendulum swinging towards making cities more attractive again. If you're 1.5 hours away going out for a quick pint with your mates after work isn't really practical.

AJB88

12,263 posts

170 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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HRL said:
Packed 80 boxes today, only another 30 or so to go before Tuesday.

Plus everything under the stairs, in the shed, and all the electricals. Damn, got loads more to pack still. frown
Same here we move Friday.

DanL

6,177 posts

264 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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Flooble said:
Say you were prepared to do say 45 minutes each way 5 days a week before = 450 minutes of commuting per week. Now, thanks for only needing to be in two days a week, you feel an hour and a half will be okay. 360 minutes of commuting per week. So you save a total of 90 minutes over your previous existence and you get a bigger house/garden/whatever. Sounds decent.

Except that thanks to prices zooming up, you are probably looking at only a marginal gain - the first movers may have traded a 3-bed semi with a postage stamp garden for a 4 bed detached with an acre of grounds, but now everyone wants the country house and fewer people want the 3-bed semi. So the house you want is more expensive and the house you are selling has stayed static.
That ignores that people in two bed flats (say) might be delighted to get into a 3 bed semi…

Your post is a bit too long to respond to on the phone, but I agree with a number of your other points. In terms of cities being attractive - they’re still attractive now in my view, but as a commuter I’ve made the decision to have a four bed house in Windsor rather than a 1 bed flat in zone 1… City living will continue to be attractive to those it always has been attractive to - under 35s, and those who just love the buzz.

Sporky

6,085 posts

63 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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DanL said:
hat ignores that people in two bed flats (say) might be delighted to get into a 3 bed semi…
Exactly what our buyers have done.

And their buyer is going from sharing a flat to having their own 2-bed flat.

Everyone is "moving up", everyone is happy.

Edited by Sporky on Sunday 13th June 21:48

corradokid

126 posts

230 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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We’ve had our mortgage application down valued by 15k on a 435k property, house is being sold as part of a divorce settlement with a court order, guy has said ok he’ll accept mortgage valuation of 420k, woman who is still living there says no I want 435k still, house is a complete mess and req a complete refurb ( not even a working boiler at present ) so we don’t know what to do. Estate agents just shrugging their shoulders. Gutted right now as there is so little on the market and house would meet our needs once sorted, but at the same time it impacts our LTV and by all accounts clearly the house isn’t worth the asking so we can’t justify throwing 15k of the refurb budget at it. Anyone got any wisdom to share?

ooid

4,049 posts

99 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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My property was down valued too during the sale, around 25k so we met in the middle with the buyers and they put 12k more on their deposit. very common nowadays.

corradokid

126 posts

230 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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ooid said:
My property was down valued too during the sale, around 25k so we met in the middle with the buyers and they put 12k more on their deposit. very common nowadays.
The issue for us I guess is that it’s not our dream home, and it needs a lot of work to get good, which we just about have. Putting another 15k on top would put us in a position of where we might not have enough funds to complete the renovation and in turn makes it unviable for us.

Whilst it’s easy for me to say, I’m not sure what she is hoping to achieve as our offer at asking was the best by 10k, and the house is only going to fall further into disrepair.

Evoluzione

10,345 posts

242 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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fesuvious said:
Friday was the first day we experienced shouting, swearing and indeed crying on the phones.

Just on Friday we fielded 25-30 calls from members of the public who were ready to exchange' but cannot find a house mover.

We've had enquiries from up to 80ish miles away now.......

We predicted it would begin last Thursday so we were not too far out.

Overheated, hysterical, mania.

Treasury, what have you done.
People are too stupid and lazy to just hire a van or two.



In other news, at more than 12 months in we're nearly there. Our oaf seller has demanded we pay his up front £650 removal company fee so we can complete before the end of the month. If we do complete he says he'll give us it back.
I doubt he would, but we'll knock it off what we pay for the house if not.
A stressful 12 months is reaching its climax over the next couple of weeks....

Fast Bug

11,597 posts

160 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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Evoluzione said:
People are too stupid and lazy to just hire a van or two.
We had an 18t truck and 4 guys to move from a 3 bed semi, we couldn’t have done it ourselves with a couple of vans!

Evoluzione

10,345 posts

242 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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Fast Bug said:
Evoluzione said:
People are too stupid and lazy to just hire a van or two.
We had an 18t truck and 4 guys to move from a 3 bed semi, we couldn’t have done it ourselves with a couple of vans!
Best 'I art richer than yow' Post ever. biggrin

Fast Bug

11,597 posts

160 months

Sunday 13th June 2021
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Evoluzione said:
Fast Bug said:
Evoluzione said:
People are too stupid and lazy to just hire a van or two.
We had an 18t truck and 4 guys to move from a 3 bed semi, we couldn’t have done it ourselves with a couple of vans!
Best 'I art richer than yow' Post ever. biggrin
More like best my wife is a hoarder and I have 2 kids post ever laugh

kiethton

13,883 posts

179 months

Monday 14th June 2021
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Our flat is now sold STC after what was 18 viewings over the last 3 days, all booked since it hit Rightmove less than a week ago.

Gone over asking (intentionally kept low to get demand) - just got to find somewhere to move to ourselves now....

ooid

4,049 posts

99 months

Monday 14th June 2021
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corradokid said:
The issue for us I guess is that it’s not our dream home, and it needs a lot of work to get good, which we just about have. Putting another 15k on top would put us in a position of where we might not have enough funds to complete the renovation and in turn makes it unviable for us.

Whilst it’s easy for me to say, I’m not sure what she is hoping to achieve as our offer at asking was the best by 10k, and the house is only going to fall further into disrepair.
Yes, I can see that. My property was fully finished really, all they had to do just move in! (new kitchen and etc...). For a property with a big refurb need, I would also keep negotiating, if they are being unreasonable douchebags just move on. Remember, they are getting a divorce, so probably the bitterness all around on that transaction!

75Black

734 posts

81 months

Monday 14th June 2021
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Jesus flipping christ, I've been advised by my solicitor that despite having accepted our offer 4 months ago my seller is yet to find his own place. Meanwhile our buyers are ready to exchange and my brother's sellers too. If he's not able to find a place, my dad and I are screwed, especially if the buyer wants to exchange before end of June...ffs.

surveyor

17,767 posts

183 months

Monday 14th June 2021
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75Black said:
Jesus flipping christ, I've been advised by my solicitor that despite having accepted our offer 4 months ago my seller is yet to find his own place. Meanwhile our buyers are ready to exchange and my brother's sellers too. If he's not able to find a place, my dad and I are screwed, especially if the buyer wants to exchange before end of June...ffs.
What has the agent being doing? This should have been known about a while ago...

75Black

734 posts

81 months

Monday 14th June 2021
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surveyor said:
75Black said:
Jesus flipping christ, I've been advised by my solicitor that despite having accepted our offer 4 months ago my seller is yet to find his own place. Meanwhile our buyers are ready to exchange and my brother's sellers too. If he's not able to find a place, my dad and I are screwed, especially if the buyer wants to exchange before end of June...ffs.
What has the agent being doing? This should have been known about a while ago...
I only found out when I was CC'd into an email regarding responses to our solicitors queries when it came up about a week ago. My solicitors is trying to push hard to find out what's going on.

C Lee Farquar

4,066 posts

215 months

Monday 14th June 2021
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75Black said:
I only found out when I was CC'd into an email regarding responses to our solicitors queries when it came up about a week ago. My solicitors is trying to push hard to find out what's going on.
Your solicitor only needs to make one call to your vendors solicitor to ask if they are progressing with a purchase. Or they can dictate a letter that will be typed god knows when and expect a reply in two weeks, having been chased again.

Unless you're miles away I'd go round and see your vendor and get it from the horses mouth, arrange a review if it makes you more comfortable.



75Black

734 posts

81 months

Monday 14th June 2021
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C Lee Farquar said:
75Black said:
I only found out when I was CC'd into an email regarding responses to our solicitors queries when it came up about a week ago. My solicitors is trying to push hard to find out what's going on.
Your solicitor only needs to make one call to your vendors solicitor to ask if they are progressing with a purchase. Or they can dictate a letter that will be typed god knows when and expect a reply in two weeks, having been chased again.

Unless you're miles away I'd go round and see your vendor and get it from the horses mouth, arrange a review if it makes you more comfortable.
The only confusing thing is why would the seller dick around but have done all the paperwork and stuff from his end, I got the TR1 form sent to me a month ago and my solicitor is due to send me the contract too in a few days.