End of lockdown - used car market effects

[Taita]

I'm trying to WBAC (or similar) a 5 Series at the moment, and dealers are all saying the market is quite slow, resulting in some fairly low offers.

As we saw at the end of lockdown 1 and 2, there was a huge uptick in used car sales and a lack of decent stock.

Do you think we will see the same again in a few weeks once retail opens up again? I'm mulling over the idea of taking the lower offer now, versus waiting for 'the rush' and perhaps gaining a slightly better offer. Car will be a few months older by then and closer to first MOT date, so perhaps reducing the value by an amount similar to the increase in demand!

What does PH think?

[Every day a journey]

yes

[VR99]

Just put the wife's car up for sale with a WBAC competitor, the offers have definitely been on a downwards trend over the last few months. I am not sure if that's simply an algo dropping the offer each time I visited the website or a reflection of the market. Conversely I am looking to change my car soon too so if used prices do start dropping that would be more than welcome too.

[J1990]

During lockdown I've got more disposable money than ever, though I'm funneling it all in to works on the house, I and others in the same situation could be tempted to go out and buy the cars we were previously a little less inclined to spend on due to other spending commitments (socialising, travel etc). Once lockdown is other my other costs are likely to come back and I'll probably be a little tighter with my spend on luxiries such as upgrading the current fleet.

Others are currently at risk of becoming unemployed (or already have) and so spending any of their money on anything non-essential is written off at the moment, if lockdown successfully eases then they may suddenly have the ability to buy vehicles.

If your 5 series is a big lump of a diesel then demand is going to be far more dependent on how many employers choose to have their staff continue to deal with customers remotely (where possible). If this number stays high then the demand for these mile munching luxo-barges will likely suffer.

It's great fun to try predict things but I'd be looking at it from the point of view that if I'm offered £10k for my car today, am I happy with that price? If so, take the money now rather than speculate on what happens in future.

[Trevor555]

Prices do seem to have fallen back a bit in the last couple of months for run of the mill bits, apart from vans, they are silly high.

I'll guess there'll be a surge of sales when lockdown is over and dealers will get short on stock again which might drag prices upwards a bit for nice used cars?

[Ziplobb]

On 15/2 my Transit DCIV was £20725

at the weekend that had gone down to £16270

cant search my email back far enough but pretty sure it was £22,600 November last year

Motorway produced and offer of £20500 about 3/4 weeks ago

got offered £16k by Ford mainstealer in December against another one the same

got offered £18k last month buy Nissan dealer against new Navara

so all over the show and hard to make a decision .....

all plus vat

[SuperPav]

Used car values (trade/auction) definitely down compared to last year. I personally wouldn't bank on them shooting up like they did last time.

Last time you had a perfect storm of lots of dealers being closed, new car sales stopped, injection of cash, people switching out of public transport all at the same time, pushing used car prices up. We've been riding that support of prices for nearly a year, and it's starting to wear off... the supply and stock is now back to almost "normal" level, therefore no more pricing pressure.

WBAC/BCA etc will drop valuations quickly if there's oversupply in their system of a particular car, so it is possible that you're seeing an exaggerated dip in your valuation, which MAY bounce back up if the supply drops a bit for that model, but we're definitely not seeing a trend for prices to start shooting up over the next month or so. If anything, at work we're assuming there will be an overall supply injection to reduce used car prices.

Remember that even a significantly reduced price over the last 3 months is still probably 10% more than it would've been without the original Covid uptick...

[Taita]

They are all very valid points, thank you.

Its a 2018 5 Series M Sport, 24000 miles. Motorway offering 19k for it via a dealer (despite originally saying 20800). Can see dealers selling for around 22k-23k on AutoTrader, so if could get towards 20k I'd be happy with that.

[Truckosaurus]

Although for every person who will rush out at the end of lockdown there will be people like me who had pencilled in this summer to replace their car but having done minimal mileage in the last year are going to put off a purchase until next year - even though we might be in a better financial situation than if things had remained normal.

[fuzzymonkey]

I sold a car to Arnold Clark last week. They had offered an extra £400 over the price they offered 5 weeks ago.

[drgoatboy]

Just found this thread and found it really interesting that prices seem to be down. I've been looking at a few hot hatches and I've found exactly the opposite that prices have gone up!
Looking at Subaru's and prices have gone up 50% for certain cars!!!

[FWIW]

Taita said:

They are all very valid points, thank you.

Its a 2018 5 Series M Sport, 24000 miles. Motorway offering 19k for it via a dealer (despite originally saying 20800). Can see dealers selling for around 22k-23k on AutoTrader, so if could get towards 20k I'd be happy with that.

Which engine/body?

[sdh2903]

drgoatboy said:

Just found this thread and found it really interesting that prices seem to be down. I've been looking at a few hot hatches and I've found exactly the opposite that prices have gone up!
Looking at Subaru's and prices have gone up 50% for certain cars!!!

Id agree used prices are bats**t mental at the minute. I've been watching all sorts, saloons, coupes, hot hatches and even 2 seaters. Prices are well up. Anywhere from 30 to 75% higher than pre lockdown. And I know you can't judge by the advertised prices but these cars are selling within a few days. Even at the silly high prices. I guess people are just buying rather than committing to pcp/pch/hp at the minute so the 3-8k market is silly.

[davek_964]

I sold a car around May last year and intended to replace it, but figured that prices would crash and I'd wait until the start of this year.
They didn't, but I got bored of waiting - and it reached the point where it would be handy to buy something so I bought on Monday. I do think prices are a bit strong, but I negotiated down (and expected my offer to be refused) so am happy.

[J1990]

Taita said:

They are all very valid points, thank you.

Its a 2018 5 Series M Sport, 24000 miles. Motorway offering 19k for it via a dealer (despite originally saying 20800). Can see dealers selling for around 22k-23k on AutoTrader, so if could get towards 20k I'd be happy with that.

My i30N dropped £1400 in valuation whilst I was waiting for HMRC to issue a new reg plate, I went through Motorway anyway and ended up with £500 more than the original estimated price anyway.
Motorway have a list of approved buyers who submit a single highest bid each to Motorway, you're then presented with the highest bid at 3pm the same day and can accept/reject. It's basically a silent auction.

If they're selling at dealerships for 22k then 20k sounds very optimistic, a £2k margin isn't particularly worthwhile on a 20k car when they've then got to account for transport, prep, marketing, staff costs etc.

Stick it through Motorway, let them present you with a final bid price and if you don't like it then reject it.

[av185]

Prices are rising across the board and in certain cases showing huge increases. Looks like a repeat of last year especially as better Spring weather and lockdowns easing approaches.

991.2 GT3 has risen £12500 in a couple of weeks as confirmed by a recent forum poster and other high end stuff also up especially limited run.

Quality used 2 and 3 year old vanilla fleet and lease stock in the main 2 Auctions also limited supply reflected in high prices as confirmed by January rising trade prices and recent strong prices including Motability sales traditiinally the bellweather of the quality fleet market.

[Taita]

FWIW said:

Taita said:

They are all very valid points, thank you.

Its a 2018 5 Series M Sport, 24000 miles. Motorway offering 19k for it via a dealer (despite originally saying 20800). Can see dealers selling for around 22k-23k on AutoTrader, so if could get towards 20k I'd be happy with that.

Which engine/body?

Hi there,

520d saloon in black.

Also has variable dampers, which are genuinely great

[Taita]

J1990 said:

Taita said:

They are all very valid points, thank you.

Its a 2018 5 Series M Sport, 24000 miles. Motorway offering 19k for it via a dealer (despite originally saying 20800). Can see dealers selling for around 22k-23k on AutoTrader, so if could get towards 20k I'd be happy with that.

My i30N dropped £1400 in valuation whilst I was waiting for HMRC to issue a new reg plate, I went through Motorway anyway and ended up with £500 more than the original estimated price anyway.
Motorway have a list of approved buyers who submit a single highest bid each to Motorway, you're then presented with the highest bid at 3pm the same day and can accept/reject. It's basically a silent auction.

If they're selling at dealerships for 22k then 20k sounds very optimistic, a £2k margin isn't particularly worthwhile on a 20k car when they've then got to account for transport, prep, marketing, staff costs etc.

Stick it through Motorway, let them present you with a final bid price and if you don't like it then reject it.

Have received a 19k bid from motorway, their original estimate (before you apply photos etc was 20900). A cynic might say they suck you in with a high price then low ball.

Its in really good nick too, so not like the price is being chipped away at for faults.

[Taita]

av185 said:

Prices are rising across the board and in certain cases showing huge increases. Looks like a repeat of last year especially as better Spring weather and lockdowns easing approaches.

991.2 GT3 has risen £12500 in a couple of weeks as confirmed by a recent forum poster and other high end stuff also up especially limited run.

Quality used 2 and 3 year old vanilla fleet and lease stock in the main 2 Auctions also limited supply reflected in high prices as confirmed by January rising trade prices and recent strong prices including Motability sales traditiinally the bellweather of the quality fleet market.

Which is pretty much where a 2018 520d would sit I guess?