How long do you think Till There are Proper Electric cars?
Discussion
and the infrastructure that comes with them, that is
-cars which cost under 20k and come as hatchbacks/estates and are available for everyone
-which gets at least 500-600mile range to make them viable for odd traveling as well.
-at least every 2nd-3rd fuel station would also have an electric charger
-cars which cost under 20k and come as hatchbacks/estates and are available for everyone
-which gets at least 500-600mile range to make them viable for odd traveling as well.
-at least every 2nd-3rd fuel station would also have an electric charger
bagusbagus said:
-cars which cost under 20k and come as hatchbacks/estates and are available for everyone
Very soon, lots of models due in the next couple of yearsbagusbagus said:
-which gets at least 500-600mile range to make them viable for odd traveling as well.
Never say never, but a long, long timebagusbagus said:
-at least every 2nd-3rd fuel station would also have an electric charger
Some fuel stations are putting them in, but fuel stations don't have a lot of space for cars to sit for 30 minutes at a time. More likely to be much more chargers in motorway services car parks IMHOCost of under £20K: It'll come during the next 5 years.
Realistic range 500-600 miles at any cost: 5 years.
However, to get the 500+ miles range for under £20K: It won't happen until lithium ion batteries get replaced by something cheaper with higher energy density. This won't happen for about 10 years.
I love the idea of EVs, and indeed my next car will be all-electric. However, we have to be realistic and see what's real and what's dreamy BS. There are a number of things to happen before an EV can be the de facto choice:
a) There's no guarantee that makers will keep losing money on them forever. They'll have to be profitable without government subsidies. Volumes are the name of the game - Nissan Leafs (or is it Leaves?) don't sell in volumes to rival the Ford Focus so sales need to increase no end.
b) Battery cost and energy density, as discussed above.
c) Charging: to charge a battery pack to give 500 miles of range would take a very long time, given the charging rates we have today. It's physically impossible to put that much power into a car battery pack at the same rate as refuelling a petrol or diesel car. EV drivers will just have to accept overnight or multi-hour daytime charging.
d) The National Grid can't cope with a vast increase in daytime charging (millions of EVs) without the addition of clever timing systems.
Realistic range 500-600 miles at any cost: 5 years.
However, to get the 500+ miles range for under £20K: It won't happen until lithium ion batteries get replaced by something cheaper with higher energy density. This won't happen for about 10 years.
I love the idea of EVs, and indeed my next car will be all-electric. However, we have to be realistic and see what's real and what's dreamy BS. There are a number of things to happen before an EV can be the de facto choice:
a) There's no guarantee that makers will keep losing money on them forever. They'll have to be profitable without government subsidies. Volumes are the name of the game - Nissan Leafs (or is it Leaves?) don't sell in volumes to rival the Ford Focus so sales need to increase no end.
b) Battery cost and energy density, as discussed above.
c) Charging: to charge a battery pack to give 500 miles of range would take a very long time, given the charging rates we have today. It's physically impossible to put that much power into a car battery pack at the same rate as refuelling a petrol or diesel car. EV drivers will just have to accept overnight or multi-hour daytime charging.
d) The National Grid can't cope with a vast increase in daytime charging (millions of EVs) without the addition of clever timing systems.
I must say, I really don't get this fixation with having a massive range. I have never owned a car that could do much more than 300 miles on a tank. Yes, I know it doesn't take long to refill that compared to most current charging options. I do also appreciate that some folk do indeed do large mileage trips all the time and there are plenty of diesel cars out there with huge range potential.
For me, a 300 mile range would be more than enough and would only require a small shift in habit to make sure I never ran out of range. Sprinkle a few fast charge stations about the place and problem solved for the vast majority of people.
YMMV
For me, a 300 mile range would be more than enough and would only require a small shift in habit to make sure I never ran out of range. Sprinkle a few fast charge stations about the place and problem solved for the vast majority of people.
YMMV
Edited by Chris-S on Saturday 29th April 09:48
have to say the company working on this lamp post EV charger should be able to sort the on street charging infrastructure and at a cheap installation cost too.
https://char.gy/
Not often do I get excited but this does seem to answer the EV charging issue
https://char.gy/
Not often do I get excited but this does seem to answer the EV charging issue
What I'm waiting for is a genuine high spec full size EV to replace my 5 series, with a genuine range at normal speeds of 300 miles plus, and fast widespread charging.
At a competitive price.
Tesla brought some cars to my son's place of work. He test drove an S and was very impressed by its performance.
It's price was £155000.
At a competitive price.
Tesla brought some cars to my son's place of work. He test drove an S and was very impressed by its performance.
It's price was £155000.
The sea change, imo, is not to do with technology, but user habits.
As EV batteries grow in Energy Storage size (they have roughly doubled in size in the last 5 years) but our driving habits actually stay the same (ie, the vast majority of people do less than 30 miles a day) a significant advantage opens up in Charging solutions.
Currently, EV owners charge mostly at home, over night, which means they can't use Solar power. And when they get back home after their daily commute, they have carted around 50 to 60% of that energy too work and then back again without using it.
However, if Bushiness installed solar arrays and workforce EV chargers, then we could charge our cars during the day, from Local solar arrays whilst they sit outside our work places for 8 or more hours each day. Then, we take the 'excess' home and use it to power our domestic requirements over night!
At a swoop, this helps to solve many issues, such as grid capacity, network capacity, and negates the requirement for large scale bulk grid energy storage.
IMO, this is the way forwards, but it needs a push from the Government (in terms of taxation or company incentives) to achieve this sea change in practices!
As EV batteries grow in Energy Storage size (they have roughly doubled in size in the last 5 years) but our driving habits actually stay the same (ie, the vast majority of people do less than 30 miles a day) a significant advantage opens up in Charging solutions.
Currently, EV owners charge mostly at home, over night, which means they can't use Solar power. And when they get back home after their daily commute, they have carted around 50 to 60% of that energy too work and then back again without using it.
However, if Bushiness installed solar arrays and workforce EV chargers, then we could charge our cars during the day, from Local solar arrays whilst they sit outside our work places for 8 or more hours each day. Then, we take the 'excess' home and use it to power our domestic requirements over night!
At a swoop, this helps to solve many issues, such as grid capacity, network capacity, and negates the requirement for large scale bulk grid energy storage.
IMO, this is the way forwards, but it needs a push from the Government (in terms of taxation or company incentives) to achieve this sea change in practices!
And amongst all this you have Toyota and Honda, who say that battery energy density is near its peak, and there is no technology on the horizon that will provide a 500 mile range, in a family car costing 20k, with a reasonable recharge time, and that is sufficiently durable for automotive use. Not now, not in 10 years' time.
Hence their view that hydrogen is the future.
Nearly everyone disagrees, but they reckon they are right, and in the meantime are selling hydrogen powered cars even though there are only something like 3 filling stations in the UK. They maintain that battery EVs are a dead end and the energy density and recharge time issues cannot be overcome.
So their answer to this question is "never".
It's going to be interesting.
Hence their view that hydrogen is the future.
Nearly everyone disagrees, but they reckon they are right, and in the meantime are selling hydrogen powered cars even though there are only something like 3 filling stations in the UK. They maintain that battery EVs are a dead end and the energy density and recharge time issues cannot be overcome.
So their answer to this question is "never".
It's going to be interesting.
Max_Torque said:
The sea change, imo, is not to do with technology, but user habits.
As EV batteries grow in Energy Storage size (they have roughly doubled in size in the last 5 years) but our driving habits actually stay the same (ie, the vast majority of people do less than 30 miles a day) a significant advantage opens up in Charging solutions.
Currently, EV owners charge mostly at home, over night, which means they can't use Solar power. And when they get back home after their daily commute, they have carted around 50 to 60% of that energy too work and then back again without using it.
However, if Bushiness installed solar arrays and workforce EV chargers, then we could charge our cars during the day, from Local solar arrays whilst they sit outside our work places for 8 or more hours each day. Then, we take the 'excess' home and use it to power our domestic requirements over night!
At a swoop, this helps to solve many issues, such as grid capacity, network capacity, and negates the requirement for large scale bulk grid energy storage.
IMO, this is the way forwards, but it needs a push from the Government (in terms of taxation or company incentives) to achieve this sea change in practices!
Good points. As EV batteries grow in Energy Storage size (they have roughly doubled in size in the last 5 years) but our driving habits actually stay the same (ie, the vast majority of people do less than 30 miles a day) a significant advantage opens up in Charging solutions.
Currently, EV owners charge mostly at home, over night, which means they can't use Solar power. And when they get back home after their daily commute, they have carted around 50 to 60% of that energy too work and then back again without using it.
However, if Bushiness installed solar arrays and workforce EV chargers, then we could charge our cars during the day, from Local solar arrays whilst they sit outside our work places for 8 or more hours each day. Then, we take the 'excess' home and use it to power our domestic requirements over night!
At a swoop, this helps to solve many issues, such as grid capacity, network capacity, and negates the requirement for large scale bulk grid energy storage.
IMO, this is the way forwards, but it needs a push from the Government (in terms of taxation or company incentives) to achieve this sea change in practices!
Induction charging at traffic lights & anywhere on the M25 will keep batteries in stationary vehicles perpetually topped up.
Prof Goodenough has already made a three-fold increase in energy density over his last big breakthrough with his latest efforts on battery design....assuming they reach the market. I'm pretty confident they will, for no reason other than he doesn't seem like the sort of chap who would announce a lame duck. Ultimately, an affordable EV that satisfies all the requirements is utterly dependent on the battery technology, until then, we are stuck with the desirable but ridiculously priced Tesla or the desirably priced but less desirable alternatives. Hopefully this latest technology step will have a big impact on battery performance and cost - it certainly looks promising. Cheap, robust, fast charge, long life, high energy density. There are some smart people working on new electric motor designs too, which can only help. An EV really should be cheap to build, few moving parts, swathes of systems you don't need compared to ICE. But Oh, those damn expensive batteries.....
On the home front, I'm about to have solar panels installed along with a Powerwall....so I can charge my car at night from excess capacity produced during daylight hours. Yes, this will only really work for me as I drive a PHEV with a small battery & EV range, and I do 99% of my trips within that range. Of course I understand that isn't going to be possible for everyone.
At-work charging and on-the-move charging are both great ideas but will require some serious changes in attitude. Here's hoping.
On the home front, I'm about to have solar panels installed along with a Powerwall....so I can charge my car at night from excess capacity produced during daylight hours. Yes, this will only really work for me as I drive a PHEV with a small battery & EV range, and I do 99% of my trips within that range. Of course I understand that isn't going to be possible for everyone.
At-work charging and on-the-move charging are both great ideas but will require some serious changes in attitude. Here's hoping.
Chris-S said:
I must say, I really don't get this fixation with having a massive range. I have never owned a car that could do much more than 300 miles on a tank. Yes, I know it doesn't take long to refill that compared to most current charging options. I do also appreciate that some folk do indeed do large mileage trips all the time and there are plenty of diesel cars out there with huge range potential.
For me, a 300 mile range would be more than enough and would only require a small shift in habit to make sure I never ran out of range. Sprinkle a few fast charge stations about the place and problem solved for the vast majority of people.
YMMV
Apart from a holiday I haven't drove further than a 40 mile round trip in 4 years !For me, a 300 mile range would be more than enough and would only require a small shift in habit to make sure I never ran out of range. Sprinkle a few fast charge stations about the place and problem solved for the vast majority of people.
YMMV
Edited by Chris-S on Saturday 29th April 09:48
bagusbagus said:
and the infrastructure that comes with them, that is
-cars which cost under 20k and come as hatchbacks/estates and are available for everyone
-which gets at least 500-600mile range to make them viable for odd traveling as well.
-at least every 2nd-3rd fuel station would also have an electric charger
Never. Basic lithium ion energy density has been 200Wh/Kg for 15 years. A Leaf battery only achieves 100Wh/Kg though, what is improving is the packaging of complete battery solutions and costs coming down.-cars which cost under 20k and come as hatchbacks/estates and are available for everyone
-which gets at least 500-600mile range to make them viable for odd traveling as well.
-at least every 2nd-3rd fuel station would also have an electric charger
In real terms cars are much cheaper than they used to be, compared to the 1970/80s, and incomes higher. Remember when the only people who had new cars were company car drivers? Now we have much more to spend on cars and interest rates will remain essentially zero for ever more.
So I think an electric future is coming but there could be a bit of a crunch with public infrastructure. Looks at air travel where flights are always full because government's can't keep up. LHR needs that 3rd runway!
Downward said:
Chris-S said:
I must say, I really don't get this fixation with having a massive range. I have never owned a car that could do much more than 300 miles on a tank. Yes, I know it doesn't take long to refill that compared to most current charging options. I do also appreciate that some folk do indeed do large mileage trips all the time and there are plenty of diesel cars out there with huge range potential.
For me, a 300 mile range would be more than enough and would only require a small shift in habit to make sure I never ran out of range. Sprinkle a few fast charge stations about the place and problem solved for the vast majority of people.
YMMV
Apart from a holiday I haven't drove further than a 40 mile round trip in 4 years !For me, a 300 mile range would be more than enough and would only require a small shift in habit to make sure I never ran out of range. Sprinkle a few fast charge stations about the place and problem solved for the vast majority of people.
YMMV
Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 29th April 09:48
Redarress said:
have to say the company working on this lamp post EV charger should be able to sort the on street charging infrastructure and at a cheap installation cost too.
https://char.gy/
Not often do I get excited but this does seem to answer the EV charging issue
terrific idea, but......https://char.gy/
Not often do I get excited but this does seem to answer the EV charging issue
A street light is absolute tops these days 100w
A rapid charger is way into the Kw territory.
Massive upgrade of the infrastructure is needed to support this
AmitG said:
And amongst all this you have Toyota and Honda, who say that battery energy density is near its peak, and there is no technology on the horizon that will provide a 500 mile range, in a family car costing 20k, with a reasonable recharge time, and that is sufficiently durable for automotive use. Not now, not in 10 years' time.
Hence their view that hydrogen is the future.
Nearly everyone disagrees, but they reckon they are right, and in the meantime are selling hydrogen powered cars even though there are only something like 3 filling stations in the UK. They maintain that battery EVs are a dead end and the energy density and recharge time issues cannot be overcome.
So their answer to this question is "never".
It's going to be interesting.
Toyota and Honda have invested interest in hydrogen.... hydrogen is not the way forward as it requires infrastructure much like fuel stations that are needed to support. You also need to convey hydrogen to the point of use. Electricity is much easier to transport. Sort out rapid charging even if you were able give 100-200 miles in a few minutes people would adjust to this and it would work. Hence their view that hydrogen is the future.
Nearly everyone disagrees, but they reckon they are right, and in the meantime are selling hydrogen powered cars even though there are only something like 3 filling stations in the UK. They maintain that battery EVs are a dead end and the energy density and recharge time issues cannot be overcome.
So their answer to this question is "never".
It's going to be interesting.
ruggedscotty said:
AmitG said:
And amongst all this you have Toyota and Honda, who say that battery energy density is near its peak, and there is no technology on the horizon that will provide a 500 mile range, in a family car costing 20k, with a reasonable recharge time, and that is sufficiently durable for automotive use. Not now, not in 10 years' time.
Hence their view that hydrogen is the future.
Nearly everyone disagrees, but they reckon they are right, and in the meantime are selling hydrogen powered cars even though there are only something like 3 filling stations in the UK. They maintain that battery EVs are a dead end and the energy density and recharge time issues cannot be overcome.
So their answer to this question is "never".
It's going to be interesting.
Sort out rapid charging even if you were able give 100-200 miles in a few minutes people would adjust to this and it would work. Hence their view that hydrogen is the future.
Nearly everyone disagrees, but they reckon they are right, and in the meantime are selling hydrogen powered cars even though there are only something like 3 filling stations in the UK. They maintain that battery EVs are a dead end and the energy density and recharge time issues cannot be overcome.
So their answer to this question is "never".
It's going to be interesting.
That would make a huge difference but is it possible?
ruggedscotty said:
Toyota and Honda have invested interest in hydrogen.... hydrogen is not the way forward as it requires infrastructure much like fuel stations that are needed to support. You also need to convey hydrogen to the point of use. Electricity is much easier to transport. Sort out rapid charging even if you were able give 100-200 miles in a few minutes people would adjust to this and it would work.
Agree, but it leads to the question - what do the Japanese know about hydrogen that we don't? Toyota and Honda might make dull cars, but they are not stupid. And they are not going to bet the company on a technology with basic problems that cannot be overcome. They must have thought this through.It makes me wonder.
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