The windy winter and occasional snow thread 2017/2018

The windy winter and occasional snow thread 2017/2018

Author
Discussion

Puggit

Original Poster:

48,439 posts

248 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
Windlepoons said:
Met office is now saying no snow for Monday and only a 40% chance on Tuesday for NW Kent (the bit I live in anyway). frown
Is that an app? Don't trust. The human-issued yellow warning still covers all of Kent.

jmorgan

36,010 posts

284 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
eharding said:
Met Office 99% sure it's going to snow somewhere, for a bit, some time next week.

Yeah but not Wales, not anywhere, look at that line of not snow! grumpy

You would think a little itty bit of snow would make it over the border, perhaps the toll on the bridge is still too high.

And it is missing Plymouth?

Pintofbest

805 posts

110 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
Puggit said:
Friday is definitely one to keep an eye out for - charts are hinting at a nationwide event...
Great - I land back from China at LHR on Friday eek

Puggit

Original Poster:

48,439 posts

248 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
eharding said:
Met Office 99% sure it's going to snow somewhere, for a bit, some time next week.
That's a cold weather warning about the temperature, predominantly for the health services.

Puggit

Original Poster:

48,439 posts

248 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
Manchester snow shield is up and ready!

(expected snow accumulation by Friday 2nd March 7am)


popeyewhite

19,863 posts

120 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
Puggit said:
Met Office have raised the cold warning to level 3: 'Severe Weather Action'

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-w...
"This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action."

When a predictive weather service is permitted to give unqualified advice concerning health warnings you realise why the country's screwed when we get 4cm of snow in urban areas. Don't get me wrong I think given the uncertainty and inaccuracy of models it's quite brave to put yourself in the firing line and suggest a certain type of weather is likely, but ffs sake stick to that - the NHS looks after the nations' health and even that struggles to get it right.

eharding

13,700 posts

284 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
jmorgan said:
And it is missing Plymouth?
Obviously. The Met Office overlooked that, but I fixed it for them.

Puggit

Original Poster:

48,439 posts

248 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
popeyewhite said:
"This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action."

When a predictive weather service is permitted to give unqualified advice concerning health warnings you realise why the country's screwed when we get 4cm of snow in urban areas. Don't get me wrong I think given the uncertainty and inaccuracy of models it's quite brave to put yourself in the firing line and suggest a certain type of weather is likely, but ffs sake stick to that - the NHS looks after the nations' health and even that struggles to get it right.
It's talking about the effects of cold - not snow!

sherbertdip

1,107 posts

119 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
Am I reading that chart correctly to say the NE of England is going to get some real snow and everywhere else is getting a few mm? I can't get excited about 6-7mm of snow, so disappointed frown

Puggit

Original Poster:

48,439 posts

248 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
sherbertdip said:
Am I reading that chart correctly to say the NE of England is going to get some real snow and everywhere else is getting a few mm? I can't get excited about 6-7mm of snow, so disappointed frown
Predicted snow falls at 7 days are not accurate.

That's not really taking in to account 'lake effect snow' - anywhere east of the Pennines or across south central UK could get wallopped by a streamer.

Later on on Friday is showing possible snow that will make that chart look insignificant (for South England)

MentalSarcasm

6,083 posts

211 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
I was trying to work out if the mm was rainful or snow, so would it be 9mm of rain, or 9cm of snow (following the person above who mentioned that mm rainful = closer to a cm snow).

Puggit

Original Poster:

48,439 posts

248 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
MentalSarcasm said:
I was trying to work out if the mm was rainful or snow, so would it be 9mm of rain, or 9cm of snow (following the person above who mentioned that mm rainful = closer to a cm snow).
Correct.

Our normal snow (wet and around 0 degrees C) actually tends to be far less than 10:1. This will be more like dry, powdery, drifting snow (much lower temps/dew points). So more like 8:1 to 10:1 ratio.

p1stonhead

25,541 posts

167 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
Puggit said:
Manchester snow shield is up and ready!

(expected snow accumulation by Friday 2nd March 7am)

Wait, that’s MM?

5-6mm in Surrey? Is it supposed to be CM in that scale?

That’s a heavy frost not snow otherwise!

popeyewhite

19,863 posts

120 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
Puggit said:
It's talking about the effects of cold - not snow!
I read it as the warning concerns cold, ice and snow.

Anyway in the flavour of the warning although I'm not qualified in meteorology in any shape or form I feel obliged for the safety of the nation to predict we will actually get very little snow, so in line with Trust policy (see: Safe Practice edict #76911) point out anxiety is a proven precursor to heart failure hence the public should ignore spurious health warnings from unqualified bodies.

I'm going on a bit now, sorry. smile

GloverMart

11,815 posts

215 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
Thanks for all your help on this thread, Puggit. I still don't understand some of it (well, about 90% to be accurate) but now and again, the fog clears a little and it makes more sense.... thumbup

MentalSarcasm

6,083 posts

211 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
The reason why they have to give a health warning for cold weather (even without snow), is because cold air is dangerous for people with asthma and chest infections. In cases of asthma in particular is can trigger asthma attacks so it's worth informing people in advance so they can make sure the keep an inhaler with them (for example) and get it stocked up in advance if they're running low.

Robertj21a

16,477 posts

105 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
GloverMart said:
Thanks for all your help on this thread, Puggit. I still don't understand some of it (well, about 90% to be accurate) but now and again, the fog clears a little and it makes more sense.... thumbup
Wait, there's fog as well ??

rolleyes

Puggit

Original Poster:

48,439 posts

248 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
p1stonhead said:
Wait, that’s MM?

5-6mm in Surrey? Is it supposed to be CM in that scale?

That’s a heavy frost not snow otherwise!
See posts above - multiply by 10 to get snow.

p1stonhead

25,541 posts

167 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
Puggit said:
p1stonhead said:
Wait, that’s MM?

5-6mm in Surrey? Is it supposed to be CM in that scale?

That’s a heavy frost not snow otherwise!
See posts above - multiply by 10 to get snow.
Ah ok!

popeyewhite

19,863 posts

120 months

Friday 23rd February 2018
quotequote all
MentalSarcasm said:
The reason why they have to give a health warning for cold weather (even without snow), is because cold air is dangerous for people with asthma
Tenuous. So is jogging but the NHS doesn't warn against it.

MentalSarcasm said:
and chest infections.
Hmm. May make you cough a bit more but "dangerous"? Come on.