The wet and windy, with occasional snow, 2018/2019 thread

[Scabutz]

It's the MK winter half marathon today. This time last year it was cancelled because of heavy snow.

So me saying it did nothing but rain last year was bks.

Confirmation bias from a couple of soggy rides no doubt.

[JonChalk]

Scabutz said:

It's the MK winter half marathon today. This time last year it was cancelled because of heavy snow.

So me saying it did nothing but rain last year was bks.

Confirmation bias from a couple of soggy rides no doubt.

Indeed - I had to practically lock my OH in the house; she desperately wanted to race / run even though they cancelled it.

Much nicer today, so she's run up to it, done 8 miles (!) warm up, going to run it, then run home. Mad! (but I love her all the same).

[Puggit]

MentalSarcasm said:

So the Atlantic is what's blocking our cold? What is it that makes it stop blocking it? XD (I'm sure I ask this every year but I can never remember all the different set ups and what they cause)

The Atlantic is our eternal source of warmer than average weather because the Earth turns and generates the constant west to east winds. Hence why the UK is MUCH warmer than Labrador in Canada. The same happens on the western coast of North America.

As for current patterns... A quieter week starts today. High pressure starts forming to the south, and slowly migrates towards Scandinavia. Eventually bringing some form of easterly winds by Weds/Thurs. No Beast from East though, not at this point.

Models are REALLY struggling with what happens later this week. Current forecast is for an Atlantic/High Pressure battleground over the UK. Really not cold enough for a mass snow event, but don't rule it out. Plus, the high pressure is slowly being modelled as stronger and stronger.

Towards Xmas we see increasing signs (from low!) for cold weather around the festive time of year. Most likely a northerly wind, which generally doesn't last long.

PLUS - sudden strasopheric warming around the Xmas period is being shown with more and more possibility. This takes time to spread its effects, so January is looking more and more likely for a proper spell of winter. Effects from SSW can be very random, so again - this is not a certain forecast!


Lack of posting recently due to issues using the site on my phone - anyone else suffering with massive lagging and trouble opening links?

[JakeT]

Always nice to have a refresher. Thank you.

I never use PH on my phone, the mobile site has always been dreadful. It's usable on an iPad though.

[donaircooleone]

Puggit said:

*snip*

Lack of posting recently due to issues using the site on my phone - anyone else suffering with massive lagging and trouble opening links?

Yes, thought it was just me on my el-cheapo android phone !

[MentalSarcasm]

Thank you for the meteorology lesson Puggit! I'll bookmark this page so I don't ask again!

[Puggit]

Glad I pointed out the high pressure was gaining strength and the charts were under estimating it. Tonight's charts showing the Atlantic getting locked out, across the board.

Again though, Europe just isn't cold enough to generate a beast. So it will be cool, pleasant, dry.

Christmas could be cold...

[glenrobbo]

donaircooleone said:

Puggit said:

*snip*

Lack of posting recently due to issues using the site on my phone - anyone else suffering with massive lagging and trouble opening links?

Yes, thought it was just me on my el-cheapo android phone !

The above issue has been raised: see PH "Website Feedback"



I don't like the PH mobile format, so I click on the three dots in top RH corner of my Android phone and scroll down to "Desktop site" and click on that. Try it.

[Bill]

I and many others have switched to a browser called Brave... https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

[mikees]

Bill said:

I and many others have switched to a browser called Brave... https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Me too. Installed on iMac on Friday. Since then as blocked 3.5k ads and 700+ trackers.

[Puggit]

On Brave now. Wow - didn't realise internet was so quick

[Cold]

Icebox Britain, snowmageddon, End of Days etc according to The Sun.
I can't vouch for its accuracy.

[Puggit]

Cold said:

Icebox Britain, snowmageddon, End of Days etc according to The Sun.
I can't vouch for its accuracy.

We're at a cross roads - we could be heading towards a cold spell, or it could get washed away by that pesky ocean

[Flibble]

Cold said:

Icebox Britain, snowmageddon, End of Days etc according to The Sun.
I can't vouch for its accuracy.

Mildest winter on record it is then.

[Puggit]

Puggit said:

We're at a cross roads - we could be heading towards a cold spell, or it could get washed away by that pesky ocean

Stand down, the Atlantic won - as usual.

Those of you in the high points of the spine of the country (RAs... etc) - could see some good snowfall later this week. Atlantic probably arrives back at the weekend.

Christmas still has hope... (that's hope, not certain snowfall)

[colin_p]

Flibble said:

Mildest winter on record it is then.

I'd say it is at the moment in with a shout.

Puggit said:

Stand down, the Atlantic won - as usual.

Those of you in the high points of the spine of the country (RAs... etc) - could see some good snowfall later this week. Atlantic probably arrives back at the weekend.

Christmas still has hope... (that's hope, not certain snowfall)

And the beast was done.

If I lived on the Sommerset Levels, I'd be worried...

[Scabutz]

Puggit said:

Christmas still has hope... (that's hope, not certain snowfall)

TBH at this stage I can live without snow, just a bit of coldness. Enough that I can light a fire.

[Puggit]

Graphic in this tweet shows how complex this week is/will be: https://twitter.com/SeanBattySTV/status/1072185618...

[JakeT]

Scabutz said:

Puggit said:

Christmas still has hope... (that's hope, not certain snowfall)

TBH at this stage I can live without snow, just a bit of coldness. Enough that I can light a fire.

Absolutely I agree. Some crisp, cold days. Not endless damp. Although I don't think it rained today. Progress!

Interesting animation, that. Hopefully the cold does win over!

[Puggit]

Hopefully the animation helps you understand how the air temps in the atmosphere mix and move like water.

Don't write off snow over the weekend. North of the M4 perhaps - most likely in elevated places.