Odds, probabilities and "what's the chances of that?"

[Louis Balfour]

A sheep farmer owns 100 fields.

He has owned the fields for 17 years.

In 17 years he has had three sheep die.

All sheep died in the same field.

What are the chances of that happening?

[Bluesgirl]

Probably fairly high if he had 99 empty fields.

[Gary29]

Bluesgirl said:

Probably fairly high if he had 99 empty fields.

Yep, and fairly low if he had 100 sheep in every field.

[sunbeam alpine]

I don't know but if he's only had 3 sheep die in 17 years he's a bloody good farmer...



...unless he only had 3 sheep, in which case he sucks!

[TwigtheWonderkid]

Did they die in the field with the massive ravine, the one next to the rifle range for the visually impaired?

[The spinner of plates]

sunbeam alpine said:

I don't know but if he's only had 3 sheep die in 17 years he's a bloody good farmer...

...unless he only had 3 sheep, in which case he sucks!

If he only had 3 which arrived 17 years ago and they've all just died he's a pretty good farmer!

I think sheep only live a decade or so, maybe 15 years top end. 17 years is a bloody good innings!

[Louis Balfour]

Bluesgirl said:

Probably fairly high if he had 99 empty fields.

Okay.

One sheep in each field. He immediately replaced the dead sheep.

[TwigtheWonderkid]

OK, if all the fields are the same, then sheep 1 could have died in any field . The chances of sheep 2 and 3 both dying in the same field as sheep 1 is ten thousand to one. (100 x 100).

It's quite possible, but unlikely. My guess is something environmental in that field is killing them.

Edited by TwigtheWonderkid on Tuesday 27th October 15:11

[Wacky Racer]

How about this.

Several years ago I was coming back to Manchester from Malta on a packed jet and got talking to a woman around forty who was travelling back for her father's 70th birthday party, which was being held in a big marquee in their large garden in Oswaldtwistle. She happened to mention her Maltese husband owned a Sports shop in Valletta. I would estimate there were around 250 people on the jet.

SEVEN months later, I was travelling back to Malta, and I sat next to an older refined lady and got talking.

She happened to mention she was from Oswaldtwistle and was going to visit her daughter in Malta and her husband owned a sports shop in Valletta........

[Bluesgirl]

Surely it’s 10,000 to one that sheep 2 dies in the same field, but 1,000,000 to one that the third sheep dies there too.

[Pericoloso]

The sheep's dead bodies were all moved to the same field post by the perp .

Why did CSI miss this obvious theory ?

[TwigtheWonderkid]

Bluesgirl said:

Surely it’s 10,000 to one that sheep 2 dies in the same field, but 1,000,000 to one that the third sheep dies there too.

Nope. It's a million to one chance for you correctly pick a field for all 3 to die in, before the first one has died. But in this case, the 1st one can die in any field. The chances of the next 1 dying in that field are 100/1. The chances of the next 2 dying in that same field are 10,000/1.

[Wiry PAYE]

A few weeks ago I stayed in two different hotels on consecutive nights in the same city. I was given the same room number in both hotels. A week or so later I returned to the city and stayed in the second of the two hotels and was given the same room again.

[Mammasaid]

Wiry PAYE said:

A few weeks ago I stayed in two different hotels on consecutive nights in the same city. I was given the same room number in both hotels. A week or so later I returned to the city and stayed in the second of the two hotels and was given the same room again.

Ah, Mr Bond, we have been expecting you.

[TwigtheWonderkid]

Bluesgirl said:

Surely it’s 10,000 to one that sheep 2 dies in the same field, but 1,000,000 to one that the third sheep dies there too.

Or to put it another way, a fruit machine with 3 spinning rollers, with 5 fruits on each. The chance of getting up 3 cherries, 125/1 (5x5x5). But the chance of getting 3 the same, 25/1. (The first one can be anything, a cherry, a pear, an apple) It's only the next 2 you have to match.

Sheep 1 could have died anywhere, it's only sheep 2 and 3 you have to match.

[bobtail4x4]

I walked into a pub in London, 200 miles from home,
as I got to the bar a pint was put in my hand, a local farmer was already there and "in the chair"
no sheep not even black sheep involved but what are the chances?

[Bluesgirl]

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Or to put it another way, a fruit machine with 3 spinning rollers, with 5 fruits on each. The chance of getting up 3 cherries, 125/1 (5x5x5). But the chance of getting 3 the same, 25/1. (The first one can be anything, a cherry, a pear, an apple) It's only the next 2 you have to match.

Sheep 1 could have died anywhere, it's only sheep 2 and 3 you have to match.

Gotcha.

[TwigtheWonderkid]

Bluesgirl said:

TwigtheWonderkid said:

Or to put it another way, a fruit machine with 3 spinning rollers, with 5 fruits on each. The chance of getting up 3 cherries, 125/1 (5x5x5). But the chance of getting 3 the same, 25/1. (The first one can be anything, a cherry, a pear, an apple) It's only the next 2 you have to match.

Sheep 1 could have died anywhere, it's only sheep 2 and 3 you have to match.

Gotcha.

No, this is PH, you have to keep arguing with me.

[Pericoloso]

bobtail4x4 said:

I walked into a pub in London, 200 miles from home,
as I got to the bar a pint was put in my hand, a local farmer was already there and "in the chair"
no sheep not even black sheep involved but what are the chances?

Barman gave you someone else's pint by mistake .

[Bluesgirl]

TwigtheWonderkid said:

No, this is PH, you have to keep arguing with me.

No I don't.