Odds, probabilities and "what's the chances of that?"
Discussion
Pericoloso said:
bobtail4x4 said:
I walked into a pub in London, 200 miles from home,
as I got to the bar a pint was put in my hand, a local farmer was already there and "in the chair"
no sheep not even black sheep involved but what are the chances?
Barman gave you someone else's pint by mistake .as I got to the bar a pint was put in my hand, a local farmer was already there and "in the chair"
no sheep not even black sheep involved but what are the chances?
bobtail4x4 said:
Pericoloso said:
bobtail4x4 said:
I walked into a pub in London, 200 miles from home,
as I got to the bar a pint was put in my hand, a local farmer was already there and "in the chair"
no sheep not even black sheep involved but what are the chances?
Barman gave you someone else's pint by mistake .as I got to the bar a pint was put in my hand, a local farmer was already there and "in the chair"
no sheep not even black sheep involved but what are the chances?
The probability is likely much higher than you think. By coincidence read the linked article yesterday. Mathematician gave example: if you throw 100 grains of rice into the air in room with 400 tiles are you likely to find a tile with 5 grains of rice on it? “Common sense” says no but if you do the experiment it is not unusual.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct...
In general people are not very good with estimating probability (beyond very simple examples).
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct...
In general people are not very good with estimating probability (beyond very simple examples).
Wacky Racer said:
How about this.
Several years ago I was coming back to Manchester from Malta on a packed jet and got talking to a woman around forty who was travelling back for her father's 70th birthday party, which was being held in a big marquee in their large garden in Oswaldtwistle. She happened to mention her Maltese husband owned a Sports shop in Valletta. I would estimate there were around 250 people on the jet.
SEVEN months later, I was travelling back to Malta, and I sat next to an older refined lady and got talking.
She happened to mention she was from Oswaldtwistle and was going to visit her daughter in Malta and her husband owned a sports shop in Valletta........
And now think of all of the possible coincidences that don't happen.Several years ago I was coming back to Manchester from Malta on a packed jet and got talking to a woman around forty who was travelling back for her father's 70th birthday party, which was being held in a big marquee in their large garden in Oswaldtwistle. She happened to mention her Maltese husband owned a Sports shop in Valletta. I would estimate there were around 250 people on the jet.
SEVEN months later, I was travelling back to Malta, and I sat next to an older refined lady and got talking.
She happened to mention she was from Oswaldtwistle and was going to visit her daughter in Malta and her husband owned a sports shop in Valletta........
21st Century Man said:
Hundreds of meteorites of Martian origin have been identified on Earth, with new ones arriving every few years. So it's bks
And the chance of being killed by a meteorite strike is higher than the risk of being killed by lightning. The chance of somebody somewhere being killed by lightning is obviously higher, but the chance of any particular individual being killed by lightning is lower than the chance of an apocalyptic meteorite strike wiping out everybody.I knew someone who refused to buy a lottery ticket because he reckoned the chance of having a heart attack during the week was higher than the chance of winning the jackpot. We tried to point out that he could still have the heart attack even if he didn't buy the ticket but he didn't seem to think this was relevant.
All fields the same size? All fields used equally frequently for his sheep? All fields used randomly at across the different seasons? All fields used equally the same sheep?
Was the "spooky killing field" a long way away from the farmhouse so less likely to be checked as frequently for sheep that need a vet
All sheep the same age at time of death? How many sheep were put down before they died due to illness? How many sent to slaughter? Are they sheep for wool or for meat?
I mean if he is farming sheep for meat then really they all died right? Just three of them died before they were slaughtered.
Can he count? Is he telling the truth?
Did he buy you a pint in London when you were 200 miles away from home that night?
etc
Was the "spooky killing field" a long way away from the farmhouse so less likely to be checked as frequently for sheep that need a vet
All sheep the same age at time of death? How many sheep were put down before they died due to illness? How many sent to slaughter? Are they sheep for wool or for meat?
I mean if he is farming sheep for meat then really they all died right? Just three of them died before they were slaughtered.
Can he count? Is he telling the truth?
Did he buy you a pint in London when you were 200 miles away from home that night?
etc
Esceptico said:
The probability is likely much higher than you think. By coincidence read the linked article yesterday. Mathematician gave example: if you throw 100 grains of rice into the air in room with 400 tiles are you likely to find a tile with 5 grains of rice on it? “Common sense” says no but if you do the experiment it is not unusual.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct...
In general people are not very good with estimating probability (beyond very simple examples).
This is a very simple example, and can be answered with basic maths. It's 10,000/1. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct...
In general people are not very good with estimating probability (beyond very simple examples).
21st Century Man said:
StuntmanMike said:
The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one he said.
Hundreds of meteorites of Martian origin have been identified on Earth, with new ones arriving every few years. So it's bks The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one, but still, they come.
Years ago I was working as a business jet co-pilot. Night-stopped at Manchester and stayed in one of the airport hotels. I left my room at the exact moment the door opposite opened and a pilot mate of mine who I'd not seen for months appeared along with the stewardess he was (secretly) shagging at the time. I've never seen anyone go such a bright shade of red before or since.
Louis Balfour said:
A sheep farmer owns 100 fields.
He has owned the fields for 17 years.
In 17 years he has had three sheep die.
All sheep died in the same field.
What are the chances of that happening?
A lot better chance than you think! I get 1 in 289 chance but it depends on how you interpret the question.He has owned the fields for 17 years.
In 17 years he has had three sheep die.
All sheep died in the same field.
What are the chances of that happening?
If you don't pick a field in advance it doesn't matter which field the first sheep dies in. It only matters that the next two die in the same field.
There is a 1 in 17 chance of a sheep dying in the same field.
2 x 1/17 = 1/289
EDIT: Ive just read the numbers in the op, I'm an idiot and shouldn't be allowed up late.
Edited by ILikeCake on Tuesday 27th October 23:22
Gassing Station | The Lounge | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff