Odds, probabilities and "what's the chances of that?"

Odds, probabilities and "what's the chances of that?"

Author
Discussion

SturdyHSV

10,083 posts

166 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
Bluesgirl said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
No, this is PH, you have to keep arguing with me.
No I don't.
Racist.

TwigtheWonderkid

43,248 posts

149 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
Bluesgirl said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
No, this is PH, you have to keep arguing with me.
No I don't.
rofl

Bluesgirl

766 posts

90 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
SturdyHSV said:
Racist.
Conformist.

SturdyHSV

10,083 posts

166 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
Bluesgirl said:
Conformist.
Agreed.

bobtail4x4

3,701 posts

108 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
Pericoloso said:
bobtail4x4 said:
I walked into a pub in London, 200 miles from home,
as I got to the bar a pint was put in my hand, a local farmer was already there and "in the chair"
no sheep not even black sheep involved but what are the chances?
Barman gave you someone else's pint by mistake .
no the farmer gave it to me.

judas

5,963 posts

258 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
bobtail4x4 said:
Pericoloso said:
bobtail4x4 said:
I walked into a pub in London, 200 miles from home,
as I got to the bar a pint was put in my hand, a local farmer was already there and "in the chair"
no sheep not even black sheep involved but what are the chances?
Barman gave you someone else's pint by mistake .
no the farmer gave it to me.
But what about the pint?

biggrin

Esceptico

7,343 posts

108 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
The probability is likely much higher than you think. By coincidence read the linked article yesterday. Mathematician gave example: if you throw 100 grains of rice into the air in room with 400 tiles are you likely to find a tile with 5 grains of rice on it? “Common sense” says no but if you do the experiment it is not unusual.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct...

In general people are not very good with estimating probability (beyond very simple examples).

StuntmanMike

11,671 posts

150 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one he said.

Cold

15,207 posts

89 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
Is this a question about the law of probabilities or the law of sod?

SCEtoAUX

4,119 posts

80 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
Wacky Racer said:
How about this.

Several years ago I was coming back to Manchester from Malta on a packed jet and got talking to a woman around forty who was travelling back for her father's 70th birthday party, which was being held in a big marquee in their large garden in Oswaldtwistle. She happened to mention her Maltese husband owned a Sports shop in Valletta. I would estimate there were around 250 people on the jet.

SEVEN months later, I was travelling back to Malta, and I sat next to an older refined lady and got talking.

She happened to mention she was from Oswaldtwistle and was going to visit her daughter in Malta and her husband owned a sports shop in Valletta........
And now think of all of the possible coincidences that don't happen.

21st Century Man

40,660 posts

247 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
StuntmanMike said:
The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one he said.
Hundreds of meteorites of Martian origin have been identified on Earth, with new ones arriving every few years. So it's bks smile

V8covin

7,213 posts

192 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
SturdyHSV said:
Agreed.
smile

Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

260 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
21st Century Man said:
Hundreds of meteorites of Martian origin have been identified on Earth, with new ones arriving every few years. So it's bks smile
And the chance of being killed by a meteorite strike is higher than the risk of being killed by lightning. The chance of somebody somewhere being killed by lightning is obviously higher, but the chance of any particular individual being killed by lightning is lower than the chance of an apocalyptic meteorite strike wiping out everybody.

I knew someone who refused to buy a lottery ticket because he reckoned the chance of having a heart attack during the week was higher than the chance of winning the jackpot. We tried to point out that he could still have the heart attack even if he didn't buy the ticket but he didn't seem to think this was relevant.

TorqueDirty

1,500 posts

218 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
All fields the same size? All fields used equally frequently for his sheep? All fields used randomly at across the different seasons? All fields used equally the same sheep?

Was the "spooky killing field" a long way away from the farmhouse so less likely to be checked as frequently for sheep that need a vet

All sheep the same age at time of death? How many sheep were put down before they died due to illness? How many sent to slaughter? Are they sheep for wool or for meat?

I mean if he is farming sheep for meat then really they all died right? Just three of them died before they were slaughtered.

Can he count? Is he telling the truth?

Did he buy you a pint in London when you were 200 miles away from home that night?

etc

LeadFarmer

7,411 posts

130 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
Why did the farmer shoot the three sheep?

TwigtheWonderkid

43,248 posts

149 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
Esceptico said:
The probability is likely much higher than you think. By coincidence read the linked article yesterday. Mathematician gave example: if you throw 100 grains of rice into the air in room with 400 tiles are you likely to find a tile with 5 grains of rice on it? “Common sense” says no but if you do the experiment it is not unusual.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct...

In general people are not very good with estimating probability (beyond very simple examples).
This is a very simple example, and can be answered with basic maths. It's 10,000/1.

talksthetorque

10,815 posts

134 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
Was one of the fields just over the border in Wales and did the three sheep die of internal bleeding?



KieronGSi

1,108 posts

203 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
21st Century Man said:
StuntmanMike said:
The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one he said.
Hundreds of meteorites of Martian origin have been identified on Earth, with new ones arriving every few years. So it's bks smile
Whoosssssshhhh.

The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one, but still, they come.

speedtwelve

3,510 posts

272 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
Years ago I was working as a business jet co-pilot. Night-stopped at Manchester and stayed in one of the airport hotels. I left my room at the exact moment the door opposite opened and a pilot mate of mine who I'd not seen for months appeared along with the stewardess he was (secretly) shagging at the time. I've never seen anyone go such a bright shade of red before or since.

ILikeCake

311 posts

143 months

Tuesday 27th October 2020
quotequote all
Louis Balfour said:
A sheep farmer owns 100 fields.

He has owned the fields for 17 years.

In 17 years he has had three sheep die.

All sheep died in the same field.

What are the chances of that happening?
A lot better chance than you think! I get 1 in 289 chance but it depends on how you interpret the question.

If you don't pick a field in advance it doesn't matter which field the first sheep dies in. It only matters that the next two die in the same field.

There is a 1 in 17 chance of a sheep dying in the same field.

2 x 1/17 = 1/289

EDIT: Ive just read the numbers in the op, I'm an idiot and shouldn't be allowed up late.

Edited by ILikeCake on Tuesday 27th October 23:22