People living longer... or not...?

People living longer... or not...?

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Mothersruin

Original Poster:

8,573 posts

98 months

Friday 18th May 2018
quotequote all
We had a walk around lovely Camarthan Town earlier today - 95% of the people were over weight.

The Memsahib noted that all this stuff about people living longer won't be an issue soon as we're getting to the end of the healthier generation brought up in the 50's to 70's, and entering the fat zone.

As it's always said, you don't see fat people in old folks homes (staff excluded).

Was an interesting point I thought.

Gary29

4,131 posts

98 months

Friday 18th May 2018
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It's going to cripple the NHS though.

gregs656

10,816 posts

180 months

Friday 18th May 2018
quotequote all
It's a few years old now but there is a paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine that future generations may have shorter life expectancies than their parents due to the massive rise in obesity and its associated lifestyle diseases.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmsr043743


geeks

9,119 posts

138 months

Friday 18th May 2018
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I assume the OP is a picture of perfect health and physique to be casting aspersions on 95% of the population of one area?

However it is true we lead more sedentary lifestyles than ever, however its not all "because pizza and computers" IME.

I live further now from a shop/supermarket and other conveniences/public services such as a Dr than ever before, where as I could walk to the shop for bread and milk it would now be 40 mins each way on foot or 2 minutes in the car. Dr is a 25 minute walk, fine when you are well, not so much when you aren't! Bus routes don't help either, public transport is worse now in our area than it has ever been, for example to get the bus to MK shopping center from my house take over an hour and two bus changes whereas in the car, 3 minutes door to parking space...

sidicks

25,218 posts

220 months

Friday 18th May 2018
quotequote all
gregs656 said:
It's a few years old now but there is a paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine that future generations may have shorter life expectancies than their parents due to the massive rise in obesity and its associated lifestyle diseases.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmsr043743
Current expectations are for longevity to continue to improve, albeit at a lower rate than in the recent past.

Sheepshanks

32,519 posts

118 months

Friday 18th May 2018
quotequote all
Gary29 said:
It's going to cripple the NHS though.
Was talking to a GP at a do last weekend and he was very downbeat about it. He said diabetes rates are at 10% now, a few years ago it was 1%. Diabetes brings with it a whole range other health issues.

coldel

7,730 posts

145 months

Friday 18th May 2018
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Watch Wall-E for a reasonable representation of the future of mankind !

Mothersruin

Original Poster:

8,573 posts

98 months

Friday 18th May 2018
quotequote all
geeks said:
I assume the OP is a picture of perfect health and physique to be casting aspersions on 95% of the population of one area?
Why the personal comment?

Thankyou4calling

10,595 posts

172 months

Friday 18th May 2018
quotequote all
I started a similar thread recently.

My conclusion was that if people are living longer, and I'm not convinced, much of that is bought about by the improvement in child mortality rates that bumps up the average.

The bible states (and i'm not a religious person) that man shall live for three score years and ten, we still do thousands of years later.

If someone dies at 83 we say they have had a good innings.

Walk around an old church yard and there are plenty who passed away in the early part of this century at 90 plus.

I don't know anybody who is a 100, when i was at school i was told it'd be the norm.

So medical intervention is helping many to live longer but lifestyle choices are balancing that out.

Personally, I don't think the way most of us live has as much bearing on our length of life as thought. Yes extremes of anything are not good but for most, when your numbers up you go.

I've seen far too many lean, in shape people go early and far too many jolly chubbies hanging on to be convinced.


Mothersruin

Original Poster:

8,573 posts

98 months

Friday 18th May 2018
quotequote all
True - I suppose not everyone can fall around the middle of the bell curve.

Will be interesting to see what happens - either way, as said, the NHS will take a massive kicking.

Donbot

3,892 posts

126 months

Friday 18th May 2018
quotequote all
https://edition.cnn.com/2017/12/21/health/us-life-...

It has been going down the last two years in the US, and we tend to follow what they do.

gregs656

10,816 posts

180 months

Friday 18th May 2018
quotequote all
Thankyou4calling said:
much of that is bought about by the improvement in child mortality rates that bumps up the average.
People living longer bumping up the statistics that average life is longer. Funny old world.

Long Drax

744 posts

169 months

Friday 18th May 2018
quotequote all
Mothersruin said:
geeks said:
I assume the OP is a picture of perfect health and physique to be casting aspersions on 95% of the population of one area?
Why the personal comment?
My thoughts exactly. Perhaps he's a victim of the modern sedentary lifestyle.


sidicks

25,218 posts

220 months

Saturday 19th May 2018
quotequote all
Thankyou4calling said:
I started a similar thread recently.

My conclusion was that if people are living longer, and I'm not convinced, much of that is bought about by the improvement in child mortality rates that bumps up the average.
Why would you not be convinced, despite all of the available evidence?

Thankyou4calling said:
The bible states (and i'm not a religious person) that man shall live for three score years and ten, we still do thousands of years later.
Except average life expectancy at birth is closer to 80 for males and 83 for women. Someone who has got to 65, now has around 50:50 chance of living to 90, and a 10-15% chance of living to 100.

Thankyou4calling said:
If someone dies at 83 we say they have had a good innings.
You are confusing life expectancy at birth 80 years ago with life expectancy for someone born now.

Thankyou4calling said:
Walk around an old church yard and there are plenty who passed away in the early part of this century at 90 plus.
No, this would be rare.

Thankyou4calling said:
I don't know anybody who is a 100, when i was at school i was told it'd be the norm.
This is why we don’t use anecdotal evidence and instead rely on population statistics.

Thankyouforcalling said:
So medical intervention is helping many to live longer but lifestyle choices are balancing that out.
Not true - life expectancy continues to increase, albeit at a reduced rate.

Thankyou4calling said:
Personally, I don't think the way most of us live has as much bearing on our length of life as thought. Yes extremes of anything are not good but for most, when your numbers up you go.

I've seen far too many lean, in shape people go early and far too many jolly chubbies hanging on to be convinced.
It’s much more complicated than you suggest.


Edited by sidicks on Saturday 19th May 02:19

DukeDickson

4,721 posts

212 months

Saturday 19th May 2018
quotequote all
sidicks said:
Thankyou4calling said:
I started a similar thread recently.

My conclusion was that if people are living longer, and I'm not convinced, much of that is bought about by the improvement in child mortality rates that bumps up the average.
Why would you not be convinced, despite all of the available evidence?

Thankyou4calling said:
The bible states (and i'm not a religious person) that man shall live for three score years and ten, we still do thousands of years later.
Except average life expectancy at birth is closer to 80 for males and 83 for women. Someone who has got to 65, now has around 50:50 chance of living to 90, and a 10-15% chance of living to 100.

Thankyou4calling said:
If someone dies at 83 we say they have had a good innings.
You are confusing life expectancy at birth 80 years ago with life expectancy for someone born now.

Thankyou4calling said:
Walk around an old church yard and there are plenty who passed away in the early part of this century at 90 plus.
No, this would be rare.

Thankyou4calling said:
I don't know anybody who is a 100, when i was at school i was told it'd be the norm.
This is why we don’t use anecdotal evidence and instead rely on population statistics.

Thankyouforcalling said:
So medical intervention is helping many to live longer but lifestyle choices are balancing that out.
Not true - life expectancy continues to increase, albeit at a reduced rate.

Thankyou4calling said:
Personally, I don't think the way most of us live has as much bearing on our length of life as thought. Yes extremes of anything are not good but for most, when your numbers up you go.

I've seen far too many lean, in shape people go early and far too many jolly chubbies hanging on to be convinced.
It’s much more complicated than you suggest.


Edited by sidicks on Saturday 19th May 02:19
Genetic luck of the draw, lifestyle choices, advances in modern medicine, advances in nutrition (maybe) and good genes (for an encore) being the main factors.

Pothole

34,367 posts

281 months

Saturday 19th May 2018
quotequote all
Sheepshanks said:
Gary29 said:
It's going to cripple the NHS though.
Was talking to a GP at a do last weekend and he was very downbeat about it. He said diabetes rates are at 10% now, a few years ago it was 1%. Diabetes brings with it a whole range other health issues.
If he, and Public Health England, are serious about wanting to tackle it, perhaps starting with NHS staff might be a good approach. Most of the nursing staff and many of the doctors at my local hospital are overweight. The surgeon who operated on my shoulder a couple of years ago is morbidly obese. There's always plenty of the fatties standing out in the smoking areas, too.

Kermit power

28,634 posts

212 months

Saturday 19th May 2018
quotequote all
gregs656 said:
Thankyou4calling said:
much of that is bought about by the improvement in child mortality rates that bumps up the average.
People living longer bumping up the statistics that average life is longer. Funny old world.
I think you're missing the point.

If 100 people live to the age of 75, then their average life is, of course, 75.

If just one of them died at the age of five, that would reduce average longevity across the whole group by 9 months.

In a situation where we're talking about a year or two either way, reductions in child mortality have a hugely disproportionate impact on the numbers.

If the rapid increase in average life expectancy had slowed, or even potentiality reversed, how much of this is because we've eliminated so many causes of premature death, whether it be through advances in medicine or health and safety (eg seatbelts and airbags)?

Once we flatten out the curve with those, changes really do become about old people living longer, so any changes are bound to be more gradual, and a decline now due to poor lifestyle choices might well have been masked by improvement in other areas in previous generations.

What we really need is a statistic for average life of people dying in old age, but it seems that nobody actually measures this. I'm going to email More or Less on Radio 4 to ask them to investigate!

sidicks

25,218 posts

220 months

Saturday 19th May 2018
quotequote all
Kermit power said:
I think you're missing the point.

If 100 people live to the age of 75, then their average life is, of course, 75.

If just one of them died at the age of five, that would reduce average longevity across the whole group by 9 months.

In a situation where we're talking about a year or two either way, reductions in child mortality have a hugely disproportionate impact on the numbers.
You are correct, improvements in infant mortality had a major impact in average longevity 50-100 years ago, but much, much less significant in recent times.

Kermit power said:
If the rapid increase in average life expectancy had slowed, or even potentiality reversed, how much of this is because we've eliminated so many causes of premature death, whether it be through advances in medicine or health and safety (eg seatbelts and airbags)?

Once we flatten out the curve with those, changes really do become about old people living longer, so any changes are bound to be more gradual, and a decline now due to poor lifestyle choices might well have been masked by improvement in other areas in previous generations.
As discussed above, average life expectancy continues to increase, but at a slower rate, for some of the reasons you have outlined.

Kermit power said:
What we really need is a statistic for average life of people dying in old age, but it seems that nobody actually measures this. I'm going to email More or Less on Radio 4 to ask them to investigate!
Expectation of life at age 65 (for example), continues to improve.

boxst

3,699 posts

144 months

Saturday 19th May 2018
quotequote all
I wonder how much of the extended age is due to just being kept alive in hospital?

My Mother died a few months ago and was thankfully only in hospital a day. But that day seriously effected me: All the old people on the ward were being kept alive, most couldn't communicate and were incapable moving and were so drugged up that they themselves were not capable of even thought I suspect. Chatting to the nurses some had been like that for a year or more.

So whilst their age had been extended, I would say their life hadn't.




RDMcG

19,093 posts

206 months

Saturday 19th May 2018
quotequote all
I have never understood the desire for massively long life. I have visited relatives I’m in retirement homes and communities (good ones), people with adequate resources.
Very few people over 80 are fully functional and fewer again at. 90

There are amazing treatments ,devices, walkers etc but it’s all quite depressing to have chronic aches and illness, cancers or dementia.

I am nearly 70 and able to function completely but I am clear that I will not be doing laps of the Nordschleife in one of my cars at 80.

I have always been clear that when I am no longer independent I am out of here.

As if now I have meaningful and remunerative work for which I travel frequently and follow my car hobby as I always have.

It is just a myth the old age is a bunch of vital energetic people going for hikes at weekends. The number one topic of conversation is health and at 80 it’s who died.

Definitely a non - starter. The mortality rate is 100% but you do get to choose your quality of life so I do not have the slightest interest in being some wheelchair bound centenarian wheezing to blow out a candle while beaming young relatives congratulate me on my longevity.

As others have said it will blow up the health system. But also the pension system. Actually cheaper for society if people die younger. Bring on the hamburgers and emancipate the cigarette smile
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