SpaceX Tuesday...
Discussion
Clive Milk said:
CraigyMc said:
Clive Milk said:
CraigyMc said:
Clive Milk said:
... The big question of course is whether you send out lots of ships to save time, or then lose time when the first has some inherent problem and all the rest fail the same way. Or do you send them slowly one after another?...
Obviously, he's building a factory to do the former. it's already there.As you said, iterative testing!
SpaceX appear to have worked out an iterative approach that works with a cheap manufacturing and “chuck it in the air” approach. I think they could well do the same with Mars landers, each iteration slightly improved with more “stuff” or control and sent in sequence, each one launched before the previous one (maybe several) have arrived. Then they get answers and build another batch of further iterations driven by what “worked/didn’t/nearly did but”. It is a process that is working rather well with the SN versions.
14 said:
I don’t think SpaceX will send multiple Starships to Mars at once. Elon will want to but I don’t think NASA will let him, as there’s a chance that if one Starship crashes then they all will, and that would cause a big debris field which NASA doesn’t want. And since NASA is the customer for SpaceX will do what they’re told to do.
NASA is one of SpaceX's customers, not their only customer.SpaceX itself was set up for Mars. NASA are helpfully funding some work but there's no guarantee they'll be involved in SpaceX's Mars stuff.
Put this another way: Do you think SpaceX need permission from someone to go to Mars?
CraigyMc said:
Put this another way: Do you think SpaceX need permission from someone to go to Mars?
To play devil's advocate on this actually, is, or should there be, permissions on doing so?While the iterative testing works where they can clear up and recycle easily in Texas, chucking these things at mars while they still have a fair chance of failure is a different kettle of fish.
They're obviously going to be way more developed by that stage, but if they did decide "we're loading up 3 or 4 with a bunch of kit, sending them, hopefully it'll work?"
Could NASA (or US gov) say we're not too happy with the potential of these all having issues resulting in the best part of 1000 tons of debris stuck on another planet?
You'll get a fine here if you're caught littering with a biodegradable McDonalds bag!
Clive Milk said:
What's the round trip time to Mars ?
Simple question.
Even landing on Mars is hard as you say, forget taking off again. Just ask any space agency apart from NASA, who have a great track record NOT with a test and fail approach
You claim
"95% of the iteration will be done by the time they leave LEO"
Where did you get that stat from ?
So Mars landing and take off is only 5%?
Best case round trip is about 3 years. 6 months out, 2 year stay, 6 months back. Worst case is much longer. Simple question.
Even landing on Mars is hard as you say, forget taking off again. Just ask any space agency apart from NASA, who have a great track record NOT with a test and fail approach
You claim
"95% of the iteration will be done by the time they leave LEO"
Where did you get that stat from ?
So Mars landing and take off is only 5%?
Edited by Clive Milk on Thursday 6th May 21:02
Taking off from Mars is much easier than landing - as long as you have the fuel. Less atmosphere, less gravity. Starship in its current form could achieve orbit from Mars.
Landing is hard, but again it is just physics. If they can land on Earth, they can land on Mars. The big issue as I see it is the landing pad. Once they have nailed re-entry on Earth, they will have nailed it on Mars.
The reason hardly anything of decent size has landed on Mars is because our current rocket architectures prevent us from getting more than a few tonnes to Mars.
When comparing NASA and SpaceX, you need to realise they have totally different philosophies. NASA spend years pushing the boundaries of science to design a really cool helicopter that can fly on Mars. They do it all from Earth and fly it there on a rocket. Musk’s approach is more “if I land some people with 1000 tonnes of resources, they’ll be able to build a helicopter on site if that is what they want”. He’s all about industrialising access to Space - it’s not about getting Starship to land, cool as it is. It’s about designing a process that can get “stuff” (don’t really care what it is) for $2 a kilo.
If you think about Falcon 9, it is a pretty average rocket in terms of performance. Nothing particularly clever about its payload or design. What is different is that it is materially cheaper per kilo than anything else out there - because it can be (mostly) reused. That’s the whole point.
rxe said:
Landing is hard, but again it is just physics. If they can land on Earth, they can land on Mars. The big issue as I see it is the landing pad. Once they have nailed re-entry on Earth, they will have nailed it on Mars.
I guess the main difference on the way down is going to be less aerodynamic control on entry (presumably it's not called re-reentry when it's another planet), the higher entry speeds just mean a longer burn (possibly, less gravity will shorten it), but they already know the thrusters work, and can pretty accurately model the stresses on the body caused by flipping at higher speeds in lower gravity. Sooner or later they're going to need to start landing on unprepared surfaces though, unless they're planning on dropping a bulldozer rover first, and as you say that's going to be a bigger issue. Lots of potential for debris to cause damage. Hopefully we'll see a few tests on earth and then some moon landings before they send them Mars.I still don't understand why people question SpaceX's ability to deliver on what they've set out to do. Granted Musk's time estimates are always extremely optimistic, however they always seem to do what they say they'll do eventually. Let's be honest the people at SpaceX are way smarter than a bunch of people on a car forum, so I'm pretty sure they know all the issues they're likely to face. I would predict a Starship on the moon within 5 years and at least one on Mars within 10 years after that, so hopefully I'll still be around to see it happen. The the first manned mission with 6 years of that landing, so I may get to see that also.
Way behind Musk's timeline I imagine, but I've no doubt they'll do it.
I'm not a Musk fan at all, I think pretty much everything he says and does is b
ks and he's proven himself to be a pretty nasty individual at times....however, SpaceX and what they're achieving is absolutely fantastic and probably the most exciting thing happening in the world at the moment, it's just most people don't seem to grasp its significance.
Way behind Musk's timeline I imagine, but I've no doubt they'll do it.
I'm not a Musk fan at all, I think pretty much everything he says and does is b
ks and he's proven himself to be a pretty nasty individual at times....however, SpaceX and what they're achieving is absolutely fantastic and probably the most exciting thing happening in the world at the moment, it's just most people don't seem to grasp its significance.Ash_ said:
I still don't understand why people question SpaceX's ability to deliver on what they've set out to do. Granted Musk's time estimates are always extremely optimistic, however they always seem to do what they say they'll do eventually. Let's be honest the people at SpaceX are way smarter than a bunch of people on a car forum, so I'm pretty sure they know all the issues they're likely to face. I would predict a Starship on the moon within 5 years and at least one on Mars within 10 years after that, so hopefully I'll still be around to see it happen. The the first manned mission with 6 years of that landing, so I may get to see that also.
Way behind Musk's timeline I imagine, but I've no doubt they'll do it.
I'm not a Musk fan at all, I think pretty much everything he says and does is bks and he's proven himself to be a pretty nasty individual at times....however, SpaceX and what they're achieving is absolutely fantastic and probably the most exciting thing happening in the world at the moment, it's just most people don't seem to grasp its significance.
+1 Way behind Musk's timeline I imagine, but I've no doubt they'll do it.
I'm not a Musk fan at all, I think pretty much everything he says and does is b
ks and he's proven himself to be a pretty nasty individual at times....however, SpaceX and what they're achieving is absolutely fantastic and probably the most exciting thing happening in the world at the moment, it's just most people don't seem to grasp its significance.Ash_ said:
I still don't understand why people question SpaceX's ability to deliver on what they've set out to do. Granted Musk's time estimates are always extremely optimistic, however they always seem to do what they say they'll do eventually. Let's be honest the people at SpaceX are way smarter than a bunch of people on a car forum, so I'm pretty sure they know all the issues they're likely to face. I would predict a Starship on the moon within 5 years and at least one on Mars within 10 years after that, so hopefully I'll still be around to see it happen. The the first manned mission with 6 years of that landing, so I may get to see that also.
Way behind Musk's timeline I imagine, but I've no doubt they'll do it.
I'm not a Musk fan at all, I think pretty much everything he says and does is bks and he's proven himself to be a pretty nasty individual at times....however, SpaceX and what they're achieving is absolutely fantastic and probably the most exciting thing happening in the world at the moment, it's just most people don't seem to grasp its significance.
I predict manned Starships going around the moon by 2023, and possibly unmanned to Mars (not to land, just flybys) within a year after that.Way behind Musk's timeline I imagine, but I've no doubt they'll do it.
I'm not a Musk fan at all, I think pretty much everything he says and does is b
ks and he's proven himself to be a pretty nasty individual at times....however, SpaceX and what they're achieving is absolutely fantastic and probably the most exciting thing happening in the world at the moment, it's just most people don't seem to grasp its significance.I share a lot of Musk's vision, I believe he's changing the world, however I don't see a city on Mars as viable or having any point. A base, yes. I can however see large space habitats, asteroid mining and so on becoming viable quite soon.
F20CN16 said:
IMO they’ll be attempting to land one on the moon (unmanned) by the end of 2022.
Whatever it is, it’s going to be bloody brilliant! And we can share it all in glorious 4K. Hopefully those first landings on the moon will be livecast in VR - imagine that!
On the subject of 4K - those starship SN15 pictures were in 4K this time, which possibly contributed to the dropouts, freezes etc. I must assume that there will be stored footage on the devices themselves, so with any luck SpaceX will be putting out some swish highlights video of the flight on the coming days.
Dog Star said:
F20CN16 said:
IMO they’ll be attempting to land one on the moon (unmanned) by the end of 2022.
Whatever it is, it’s going to be bloody brilliant! And we can share it all in glorious 4K. Hopefully those first landings on the moon will be livecast in VR - imagine that!
On the subject of 4K - those starship SN15 pictures were in 4K this time, which possibly contributed to the dropouts, freezes etc. I must assume that there will be stored footage on the devices themselves, so with any luck SpaceX will be putting out some swish highlights video of the flight on the coming days.
Obviously appreciate it's not really in their interests to spend resources on doing this though!
Dog Star said:
I predict manned Starships going around the moon by 2023, and possibly unmanned to Mars (not to land, just flybys) within a year after that.
I share a lot of Musk's vision, I believe he's changing the world, however I don't see a city on Mars as viable or having any point. A base, yes. I can however see large space habitats, asteroid mining and so on becoming viable quite soon.
Mars is bound by the transfer windows - so 2022 or 2024. I suspect he’d love to get a starship in orbit around Mars via the 2022 window, and at the current rate of progress, he might just do it. It wouldn’t land or anything, but it might have 300 Starlink satellites on board... He’d enjoy spamming NASA with offers for his broadband service. I share a lot of Musk's vision, I believe he's changing the world, however I don't see a city on Mars as viable or having any point. A base, yes. I can however see large space habitats, asteroid mining and so on becoming viable quite soon.
2024? I suspect he will send a handful (unmanned) and try and land them.
A conventional transfer to Mars needs about 4km/s. Starship supposedly has 7km/s or so with a 100 tonne payload, so if it's not planning on landing there's also the potential for higher energy transfers, which means a much wider transfer window. Given that they're designed for entry in to atmosphere could it aerocapture to save even more fuel?
By the time they start launching towards Mars you'd hope any hardware issues have been solved by flights on the earth/moon, software issues could potentially be fiddled with iteratively, ie launch a few towards Mars and when the first one crashes make some software tweaks to the next one.
Although how many launches did they say it would need to fully refuel one in orbit? I seem to recall it was quite a few.
By the time they start launching towards Mars you'd hope any hardware issues have been solved by flights on the earth/moon, software issues could potentially be fiddled with iteratively, ie launch a few towards Mars and when the first one crashes make some software tweaks to the next one.
Although how many launches did they say it would need to fully refuel one in orbit? I seem to recall it was quite a few.
Dog Star said:
welshjon81 said:
Apparently Musk just tweeted that they may try and fly SN15 again soon.
I suppose after a full study has taken place - why the hell not?!?!?
I see no such tweet, by the way - and they are on my VIP alert thing. I suppose after a full study has taken place - why the hell not?!?!?
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