Climate Change - The Scientific Debate

Climate Change - The Scientific Debate

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LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Wednesday 28th August 2013
quotequote all
hairykrishna said:
Actually it's the exact opposite of the 'consensus science' view. It's a list of 6 things which aren't supported by medical evidence and aren't the scientific view. I can read it here without subscription; http://www.newscientist.com/special/six-health-myt... (I think - I'm at work and we may have one)
But the list only exist because at one time, until quite recently, they were often presented (or perhapos mis-presented) as 'scientific facts' or at least medical facts and the public, generally, accepted them as good advice or whatever. There was no major campaign to point of the flaws in the advice and so it became generally accepted by assumed concensus.

Once established it not so easy to break the myth. As we will find with many 'modern' challenges as well, not the least being AGW and all of it's spinoffs.

hairykrishna

13,159 posts

202 months

Wednesday 28th August 2013
quotequote all
LongQ said:
But the list only exist because at one time, until quite recently, they were often presented (or perhapos mis-presented) as 'scientific facts' or at least medical facts and the public, generally, accepted them as good advice or whatever. There was no major campaign to point of the flaws in the advice and so it became generally accepted by assumed concensus.

Once established it not so easy to break the myth. As we will find with many 'modern' challenges as well, not the least being AGW and all of it's spinoffs.
Quite a lot of the list have and had no basis in the scientific literature at all, other than "Antioxidant pills help you live longer" which was the result of in vitro stuff working, in vivo not so much. Your point that it takes a long time to shift a consensus view is, of course, valid though. The cause of stomach ulcers being a classic example in medicine.

LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Wednesday 28th August 2013
quotequote all
hairykrishna said:
LongQ said:
But the list only exist because at one time, until quite recently, they were often presented (or perhapos mis-presented) as 'scientific facts' or at least medical facts and the public, generally, accepted them as good advice or whatever. There was no major campaign to point of the flaws in the advice and so it became generally accepted by assumed concensus.

Once established it not so easy to break the myth. As we will find with many 'modern' challenges as well, not the least being AGW and all of it's spinoffs.
Quite a lot of the list have and had no basis in the scientific literature at all, other than "Antioxidant pills help you live longer" which was the result of in vitro stuff working, in vivo not so much. Your point that it takes a long time to shift a consensus view is, of course, valid though. The cause of stomach ulcers being a classic example in medicine.
Point taken but I think you are viewing from within science where people can wisely understand that 8 pints of water a day means from all sources of course, and if the public has led themselves to believe that they have to drink 8 pints on top of all the usual sources (or sauces) then more fool them. On the other hand for years that sort of message was never widely broadcast and people of all ages and abilities believed that it would be good for you, almost necessary in fact, to drink 8 pints of water a day (or at least some large volume that had many people worried that it was beyond them). There was no mass re-education program to debunk the myth. Sometime the knowing dog that does not bark is worse than idiot dog that does.

Edited by LongQ on Wednesday 11th September 00:21

Getragdogleg

8,737 posts

182 months

Friday 30th August 2013
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One of the first opening statements to this very thread contains a set of statements I have not seen disputed convincingly but nor have I seen written together anywhere else

Just a quick basic facts check here, Current CO2 levels in atmosphere are 390ppm or 0.039% of total and since around the start of the industrial revolution Co2 has increased from about 250ppm or 0.025% . A gain of about 140ppm or 0.014% of atmosphere.

How much Co2 are we the humans responsible for ? 4% of that 0.039% is the claim, is this still confirmed or denied or just speculation at the moment ?

I am having an excellent discussion with a friend of mine and want to just clear those points up as confirmed before I argue them, Peer review on PH if you will !


V88Dicky said:
"CO2 follows or lags temperature by around 600 years, therefore cannot be a driver of climatic temperatures"
Is all the above this still a basic tenet of truth a few years after it was typed ?

hairykrishna

13,159 posts

202 months

Friday 30th August 2013
quotequote all
In the spirit of 'peer review' from people you don't necessarily agree with...

Getragdogleg said:
How much Co2 are we the humans responsible for ? 4% of that 0.039% is the claim, is this still confirmed or denied or just speculation at the moment ?
Presumably you mean 40% not 4? Confirmed, although I'm sure there will be vigorous disagreement.

The lag thing is still hotly debated. Google the massive ststorm over last years Shakun et al Nature paper.

Getragdogleg

8,737 posts

182 months

Friday 30th August 2013
quotequote all
hairykrishna said:
In the spirit of 'peer review' from people you don't necessarily agree with...

Getragdogleg said:
How much Co2 are we the humans responsible for ? 4% of that 0.039% is the claim, is this still confirmed or denied or just speculation at the moment ?
Presumably you mean 40% not 4? Confirmed, although I'm sure there will be vigorous disagreement.

The lag thing is still hotly debated. Google the massive ststorm over last years Shakun et al Nature paper.
It makes for good science if there is disagreement, I am not just going to disregard anything that one side or the other posts in terms of facts so I come at this with an open mind even if that open mind is currently being won by the "no, we are not making the difference claimed" side.

grumbledoak

31,502 posts

232 months

Friday 30th August 2013
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I think the summary is still "the CO2 following temperature rises by 600 odd years was from Vostok ice core data. Some continue desperately to try to prove this wrong and/or excise the Medieval Warm Period from the history books."

Blib

43,795 posts

196 months

Tuesday 3rd September 2013
quotequote all
How soot killed the Little Ice Age
Industrial revolution kicked off Alpine glacier retreat fifty years before warming began.

Link

Nature article said:
Rising air pollution in the wake of the Industrial Revolution seems to be the explanation for a long-standing enigma in glaciology. The emission of soot from Europe’s proliferating factory smokestacks and steam locomotives explains why glaciers in the Alps began their retreat long before the climate warming caused by human activities kicked in, a study suggests.

The 4,000 or so large and small Alpine glaciers — which today are acutely threatened by rising air temperatures — did well throughout the relatively cool 500-year period known as the Little Ice Age, which began around the end of the thirteenth century. At its maximum in the middle of the nineteenth century, the extent and volume of Alpine glaciers was at least twice what it is now.

But then these glaciers suddenly began to retreat. Other regions of the world may also have been affected — the decline was only well documented in the Alps — and, conventionally, climate scientists consider the Little Ice Age to have ended soon after 1850.

However, despite the glaciers' shrinking, average global temperatures did not rise significantly until the end of the century. In fact, Alpine climate records — among the most abundant and reliable in the world — suggest that glaciers should have continued to grow for more than a half century, until around 1910.

“Something gnawed on the glaciers that climate records don’t capture,” says Georg Kaser, a glaciologist at the University of Innsbruck in Austria and a member of the team that built the case against black carbon, or soot, this week in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences1. “A strong decline in winter snowfall was often assumed to be the culprit,” he says. “But from all that we know, no such decline occurred.”

dodgyviper

1,197 posts

237 months

Tuesday 10th September 2013
quotequote all
ooops

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/clima...

What interested me most in the article was the following claim

"...leaked documents are said to show that the governments who fund the IPCC are demanding 1,500 changes to the Fifth Assessment Report - a three-volume study issued every six or seven years – as they claim its current draft does not properly explain the pause."

My perception previously was that governments followed the mmgw party line with blinkers fully engaged.

Could it be,


wait for it....


a sea-change


getmecoat

LongQ

13,864 posts

232 months

Wednesday 11th September 2013
quotequote all
dodgyviper said:
ooops

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/clima...

What interested me most in the article was the following claim

"...leaked documents are said to show that the governments who fund the IPCC are demanding 1,500 changes to the Fifth Assessment Report - a three-volume study issued every six or seven years – as they claim its current draft does not properly explain the pause."

My perception previously was that governments followed the mmgw party line with blinkers fully engaged.

Could it be,


wait for it....


a sea-change


getmecoat
Ouch.

I think it is more likely that governments want something like they have had in the past - the summary for policy makers (that then dictates what the science parts say) needs to be certain to demand increased spending and taxation and wealth re-distribution from western savers and pensioners to poor country despots scattered around the world.

It gives the 'leaders' and 'lawmakers' something to work with that allows them to feel important.

109er

433 posts

129 months

Wednesday 11th September 2013
quotequote all
Don't know about 'warming' but, have you seen this:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Gl...

CR6ZZ

1,313 posts

144 months

Apache

39,731 posts

283 months

Wednesday 11th September 2013
quotequote all
BBC article saying the Woolly Mammoth died out due to climate change, I'm guessing this period is not the one that the Deluded Ones want the climate to stop changing at

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-2403...

Le TVR

3,092 posts

250 months

Wednesday 11th September 2013
quotequote all
Apache said:
BBC article saying the Woolly Mammoth died out due to climate change, I'm guessing this period is not the one that the Deluded Ones want the climate to stop changing at

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-2403...
Error 404

Must have been off-message then.

grumbledoak

31,502 posts

232 months

Wednesday 11th September 2013
quotequote all
This?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-2403...

Seems the end of the last Ice Age was bad news for the big, woolly creatures.

Mr2Mike

20,143 posts

254 months

Wednesday 11th September 2013
quotequote all
Apache said:
BBC article saying the Woolly Mammoth died out due to climate change, I'm guessing this period is not the one that the Deluded Ones want the climate to stop changing at

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-2403...
That just means that naughty humans were already meddling with the climate 30,000 years ago biggrin

Gandahar

9,600 posts

127 months

Friday 13th September 2013
quotequote all
Mansell90 said:
Worst case scenario, global warming doesn't exist at all, it was all a hoax, we spent a bit of money on developing new energy sources and making our energy use more efficient... is that so bad?
Pretty good point. Due to how the government levy road duties based on C02 people are moving to more efficient cars, so much so that the government is now out of pocket on the tax on fuelling those cars.

You can now get a car which has 300bhp that does 45mpg rather than a 1996 car that had 300bhp and did 25mpg.

So this claim by the sceptics that pandering to AGW is costing you and me money is not the case. It's giving us a benefit whether true or false scientifically.


grumbledoak

31,502 posts

232 months

Friday 13th September 2013
quotequote all
Gandahar said:
So this claim by the sceptics that pandering to AGW is costing you and me money is not the case. It's giving us a benefit whether true or false scientifically.
Well, that's a familiar level of 'proof'. I'm convinced.

PRTVR

7,073 posts

220 months

Friday 13th September 2013
quotequote all
Gandahar said:
Mansell90 said:
Worst case scenario, global warming doesn't exist at all, it was all a hoax, we spent a bit of money on developing new energy sources and making our energy use more efficient... is that so bad?
Pretty good point. Due to how the government levy road duties based on C02 people are moving to more efficient cars, so much so that the government is now out of pocket on the tax on fuelling those cars.

You can now get a car which has 300bhp that does 45mpg rather than a 1996 car that had 300bhp and did 25mpg.

So this claim by the sceptics that pandering to AGW is costing you and me money is not the case. It's giving us a benefit whether true or false scientifically.
but we have not developed any new energy sources, windmills are not new and still do not work as a means of generating electricity, yet they are springing up all over the place, costing everybody a lot of money, do you know the total bill for fighting CO2 ? , who is paying this bill, there is no benefit, just costs in money and lost jobs, but worse than that is the abuse of science by people who should be locked up for fraud.

205alive

6,087 posts

175 months

Sunday 15th September 2013
quotequote all
Well now this is interesting. Some secret squirrel at the Flail appears to have a copy of the forthcoming IPCC report which will go out 'to policymakers'. Although they state the report is still a work in progress, claims made previously about warmng seem to be ohh, about 50% out.

Would love to hear what others think - unless it's already being discussed elsewhere:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2420783/Gl...
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